Looking For My Worst Cardinals Team - Part 8

It's time for the last team, barring a complete collapse by the current squad. As opposed to the half-assed collapse they've been engaged in for the last month.

2007

Record: 78-84 (.481), outscored 829-725, -104 run differential
Pythagorean Record: 71-91 (.438)

Offensive Notes: Scored 725 runs (11th out of 16); 5 players (2 starters, 3 reserves) with OPS+ > 100.

This team was marginally good at getting hits. They were 7th in hits, and 5th in batting average and on-base percentage. That last one was in spite of being 13th in walks. Unfortunately, they didn't hit for any power. 14th in doubles and slugging, 16th in triples, 13th in home runs. They did have the 3rd fewest strikeouts, but more than offset this by grounding into the most double plays in the league. They were also 15th in the NL in stolen bases.

The two starters were Albert Pujols, who with a .997 OPS (157 OPS+) had his second worst season up to that point, and Chris Duncan (.834, 114), whose season ended early. David Eckstein outhit Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds, which would have been great if David put up a .900 OPS, but he didn't reach .750. Adam Kennedy had a miserable year (.575, 50). Amongst the reserves, the good hitters were the guys taking over in the outfield by the end of the season: Skip Schumaker (.816, 111), Rick Ankiel (.863, 119), and Ryan Ludwick (.818, 110). They all had weaknesses, especially patience, as none of them walked all that much, and Skip wasn't much of a power hitter, but they were an improvement on the starters, as a whole.

Molina had a positive year in the sense he posted his best OPS up to that point, .708. Brendan Ryan hit better than his minor league numbers suggested he would, though Scott Spiezio was a bit of a disappointment. Aaron Miles had what was probably a good year for him, but not a particularly useful one for the team. As a whole, the Cardinals had 5 players in double digit home runs, though only two of those (Duncan and Pujols) reached 20. Eckstein was the only one to steal 10 bases.

Pitching Notes: 829 runs allowed (13th of 16); 11 pitchers (3 starters, 8 relievers) with ERA+ > than 100.

Not much good to say here, either. They allowed the 5th fewest walks, they were in the middle of the pack in HRs. But they were 11th in hits allowed, and 15th in strikeouts. No surprise there.

Of the relievers, Josh Hancock threw 13 innings before his passing, Troy Cate 16, of which he was probably lucky to have a 3.38 ERA, considering his 1.688 WHIP. Randy Flores and Tyler Johnson both posted ERA+ better than 100, but their ERAs were still above 4.00, which isn't great for a reliever. Flores was probably lucky, considering his 1.564 WHIP, compared to Tyler's 1.237. The Cards did have 4 legitimately good relievers: Isringhausen, Ryan Franklin, Russ Springer, and Troy Percival. All of them had an ERA+ of at least 145, and no ERA was higher than Franklin's 3.04. Izzy had the worst WHIP, at 1.071, and Springer (0.909) and Percival (0.850) were both fantastic. Izzy struggled a bit with walks (3.9/9 IP), but still K'd over 7/9. Percival was over 8 K/9, and Springer was a 9 K/9. Two of the good starters were Pineiro and Todd Wellenmeyer. Pineiro surrendered 1.6 HR/9, and Wellenmeyer averaged less than 5 innings when he actually started, while walking over 4/9. Wainwright was the closest thing to an actual good starting pitcher, throwing 202 innings with a 3.70 ERA (119 ERA+).

Unfortunately, the team had its share of duds. Mike Maroth had a good first start, then was battered for the next six starts, and 7 relief appearances. Anthony Reyes struggled with runners on base, with his mechanics, with the pitches they wanted him to throw, with lack of run support when he pitched well. Kip Wells sucked. Mulder was still not ready. Kelvim Jimenez (7.50 ERA) mostly held the role of "pitcher LaRussa uses when he's throwing in the towel", though Andy Cavazos, Brian Falkenborg, and Dennis Dove also took turns.

Defensive Notes: The Cardinals were actually good at some positions. Unfortunately, like the '99 team, they were equally terrible at others, mostly in the outfield. Molina was 12 runs above average behind the plate, Albert +25 at first, Rolen partially made up for his lousy offensive season by being +14 at 3rd. The bad news was the Cards were -5 at 2nd, and -9 at SS, thanks to a -15 in 1245 innings of Aaron Miles and Eckstein. The outfield was a disaster. Chris Duncan and So Taguchi were a -22 in 960 innings, though Ludwick and Schumaker were good enough that the team was only -13 overall. Their CFs were average, but Juan Encarnacion was -16 in RF, and the team was -24 as a whole. Overall, the Cardinals were only +8, despite being a combined +59 at C, first, and third.

Other Notes: The Cardinals somehow managed a winning record (43-38) at home, despite being outscored by 20 runs. That they were 35-46 on the road, where they were outscored by 84, made more sense. The team had two good months, July and August, where they managed to climb into the divisional race, thanks to a 30-23 record and a terrible division. Not surprisingly for a team with such poor starters, the team was 25-38 in blowouts. Also not surprisingly for a bad team with a relatively good bullpen, they were 16-20 in one-run games. They owned the Pirates (12-6), but were destroyed by the eventual division winning Cubs, losing 11 of 16. Though only managed 1 win in 6 games against the Nationals, and 1 in 5 against the Giants.

Final Thoughts: This probably shouldn't have been a surprise, considering how the 2006 team played during the regular season. Going into a season with a rotation of Chris Carpenter, Kip Wells, Braden Looper, Wainwright, and Reyes, only to see Carpenter lost for the season in the opener, should have been another clue. Very little seemed to go right. The offense was completely non-existent (even from Pujols) for the first six weeks, and then, just as the team started to hit a little, the rotation fell completely apart. Reyes mostly stopped pitching well and getting screwed by lack of run support, and just pitched poorly. Kip remembered he was Kip Wells. Wainwright started to turn things around by the end of May, but by then Looper was reaching career highs in innings, and wearing down, though I was still impressed by how well he held up.

Mulder tried to come back, and failed. Maroth was not a successful reclamation project, and in that season, Wellenmeyer would be stretching the definition of "successful". Preston Wilson tried to play hurt because the team needed him, and fared poorly. Encarnacion came back from injury mid-season, then had his career ended by a foul ball off Miles' bat. Adam Kennedy played horribly, then was shut down with a knee injury. Duncan struggled after July, until he was shut down in early September with a hernia. I was watching the game against the Diamondback when they shut him down. Watching Albert run the bases that season had been ugly, as you could tell he was running so as to avoid injuring his hamstrings and heel any worse. Watching Duncan leg out a triple that night, you could tell he was in even more pain.

The only things that slightly mitigated the pain of such a lousy season were that they won the World Series the year before (big help), and the NL Central was so lousy they weren't eliminated until an 8 game losing streak in early September.

This is the team. There's really nothing they do well. They aren't a decent offensive team like the '94 squad. They aren't a good run prevention team like the '95, '97, or '86 teams. The '88 and '90 teams could each at least run a lot to compensate for their lack of hitting, and both those teams had better rotations than the '07 team, if not better bullpens. The '99 team is probably close to as bad, but they were a better offensive team, able to hit for more power, and demonstrate more speed on the bases. The '99 team's rotation was better too, even if their bullpen was also much worse. They aren't a good defensive team overall, either. Better than the '99 and '88 groups, but only by 10 runs. +8 is better than -2, no doubt, but it doesn't hold a candle to +35 (1990 and 1994), and certainly not +94 (1986). Really, a good bullpen (excluding all the lousy relievers, anyway) is all this team has going for it, besides Albert Pujols, and I don't think that's enough to elevate them above the other teams.

From worst to best, I'd go 2007, 1999, 1988, 1990, 1994, 1995, 1997, 1986.

Looking For My Worst Cardinals Team - Part 7

As we move into the home stretch, I'm returning to the LaRussa era for these last two teams. Today it's the last bad team before the Cardinals kicked off a decade of being good almost every year.

1999

Record: 75-86 (.466), outscored 838-809, -29 run differential
Pythagorean Record: 78-83 (.485)

Offensive Notes: Scored 809 runs (10th out of 16), 6 players (3 starters, 3 reserves) with OPS+ > 100.

The team's runs scored total was fairly accurate considering their rank in other offensive categories. It might even have been better than one might expect. They were 13th in hits and batting average, 12th in doubles, 11th in OBP, 10th in triples and OPS, 9th in SLG and 8th in stolen bases. They did manage to finish 7th in walks, 5th in HRs, and lead the league in strikeouts.

The team's lineup was top-heavy, or thin depending on how you'd prefer to describe it. The starting lineup had Mark McGwire (1.120 OPS and 176 OPS+) with his 65 HRs, and Fernando Tatis (.957, 139). Ray Lankford (.873, 118) rounded out the positive offensive performances. The rest of the lineup consisted of hitters with mid-80s OPS+ (Joe McEwing, Edgar Renteria), or low-90s (J.D. Drew, Eric Davis, when they were healthy, as Drew and Lankford were the only outfielders on the team to top 400 plate appearances). The millstone in the lineup was Eli Marrero, recovering from a serious illness and posting a .533 OPS (that's a 33 OPS+) in 343 PAs. That was bad enough to make his backup, Alberto Castillo's .667 look almost good. Of the 3 above average offensive reserves, two were Eduardo Perez and Marcus Jensen, who combined for 81 PAs. The third was Craig Paquette posting a slugging heavy (OBP of .309) .825 OPS. Unfortunately, Paquette was 6th amongst reserves in PAs, and of the top 5, only Thomas Howard (.789, 98), and Darren Bragg (.746, 89) had an OPS+ better than 80.

The Cardinals had only two players with more than 20 HRs (McGwire and Tatis), though there were 4 others with at least 10. They did have 2 players (Renteria and Tatis, though Tatis's 21 successes in 30 attempts didn't merit so many green lights) steal more than 20 bases, and three others (including Marrero) who stole at least 10 bases, but in each case, the drop off from those few productive players to the rest of the team was severe.

Pitching Notes: Allowed 838 runs (10th out of 16), 8 pitchers (5 starters, 3 relievers) with ERA+ > 100.

The Cardinals' pitching staff was pretty uniformly bad. They were 13th in complete games, 12th in hits allowed, 13th in Ks, and 15th in walks, which had been at least one thing the bad teams of the Herzog era had avoided. Apparently this Cardinals pitching staff couldn't help making things harder on themselves. They did have one thing working for them, that they allowed the 5th fewest HRs in the NL, but with as many other hits and walks as they surrendered, it didn't help much.

A primary culprit was the bullpen. Of the three relievers that managed better than average ERAs, the caveats abound. Rich Croushore's 112 is for a 4.14 ERA, which probably should be worse considering his 1.549 WHIP, and more than 5 BB/9 IP (he did average 11.1 K/9, best on the team). Heathcliff Slocumb somehow posted a 2.36 ERA in 53.3 innings, despite a 1.481 WHIP, and more than 5 BB/9 himself. Mike Mohler posted a 4.38 (106) in 49.3 innings with a 1.419 WHIP. He at least kept his walk rate down to 4.2/9. And these were the good relievers. Ricky Bottalico posted and ERA of 4.91, which was lucky considering his WHIP of 1.8, and 6 BB/9. Juan Acevedo (working as both a starter and reliever) post an ERA of almost 6.00 in over 100 innings, and allowed 1.5 HRs/9 innings pitched. The rest wasn't much better.

Not that the starters were blameless. Jose Jimenez posted a 5.85 ERA (79 ERA+) in 163 innings, and that includes his two shutouts of the Diamondbacks (which came within two weeks of each other). Kent Mercker posted a +5.00 ERA in over 100 innings, with a WHIP of almost 1.7. The ace of the staff was either Kent Bottenfield (3.97, 116) or Darren Oliver (4.26, 108). Bottenfield has the better ERA and record (18-7 versus 9-9), but Oliver posted a better WHIP (1.38 vs. 1.50), and a better strikeout-to-walk ratio (1.61 vs. 1.39), and threw more innings (196 vs. 190). Either way, if those are the two best starters a team has, they're in trouble. The Cardinals picked up 12 starts from Garrett Stephenson (4.22, 110, in 85.3 innings), as well as 5 starts from Mark Thompson (2.76, 169, 29 innings) and Rick Ankiel (3.27, 142, 33 innings, including 4 relief appearances). Ankiel's was more accurate, considering his WHIP of 1.212, vs. Thompson's 1.466 (and more than 5 BB/9).

Defensive Notes: As a whole, the Cardinals were about 2 runs below average defensively. With the exception of 2nd base (basically average) and RF (-5), they were either excellent or abysmal at each position. Marrero and Castillo were each +8 behind the plate, but McGwire's -9 at 1st base, and Renteria's -8 at SS sort of cancel that out. Tatis was an awful -22 at 3rd. It takes the combined efforts of Lankford in LF (+15), and J.D. Drew in CF (+11) to nullify that. Oddly, Willie McGee was -4 in LF, -8 in RF, but +1 CF, the most difficult outfield position. The problem here is the Cardinals were good at some critical positions (catcher, CF), but lousy at others (3rd, SS), so you can't even say they had good defensive players at the places those matter the most, because it would only be partially true.

Other Notes: Like their Pythagorean Record and run differential suggest, this team ought to have been a few wins better than it was, and it's backed up in some of the odd records you see for them. They were 38-42 at home, 37-44 on the road. But they were outscored by 50 runs at home, while outscoring their opponents by 21 on the road. Going by that, they ought to have been even worse at home, and a winning team on the road. Through July, they were 52-52, despite being -23 in runs. The remainder of the season they went 23-34, despite being +4. Contrary to what I would have expected with their bullpen, the team was 9-8 in extra innings games, and only one game below .500 in one-run games. They had a winning record in blowouts. They dominated the southern California teams, going 13-5 against the Padres and Dodgers. The only team they were exceptionally poor against was Atlanta (1-8), though the Reds (4-8) and Mets (2-5) both did well against them.

Final Thoughts: This was the third disappointing year in a row for the Cardinals, after going to the postseason the first year of the LaRussa era. It was, perhaps not coincidentally, the third year in a row their starting rotation had trouble staying healthy all year. And the pitchers who did stay healthy, as well as those who replaced the injured, weren't very good. Matt Morris blew out his elbow in Spring Training, gone for the year. Donovan Osborne struggled the first month, then retired for a few years. Jimenez had two good starts at the beginning of the year, then the two good starts against the D'Backs in June, and otherwise, was consistently hammered. Mercker was hurt for awhile, then traded. Acevedo, who had been good when available the year before, in both the rotation and the pen, was good in neither this year. LaRussa tried moving Lance Painter to the rotation, he got hurt. Bottalico was not a noticeable improvement on Jeff Brantley.

Joe McEwing started well, then his numbers declined as the league figured him out. Willie McGee's skills seemed completely gone. None of the outfielders could seem to stay healthy, which may not be much of a surprise considering the three primary starters for the year wound up being Ray Lankford, J.D. Drew, and Eric Davis. Renteria may have been an improvement on the traded Royce Clayton offensively, but not so much defensively, and Tatis was giving way quite a few of the runs he was generating offensively.

I know much of the fan excitement that year wound up revolving around McGwire, though for me it was the late season call-up of Rick Ankiel. Pitching had been the Cardinals' problem, in my opinion the previous year and this one, and it sure would be swell if Ankiel could be as good as people said he was. He actually was about as good as I could have hoped, considering the Cardinals consistently didn't score any damn runs for him when he started. They could score enough to get Bottenfield 18 damns wins, but they couldn't net Ankiel any?

I went to one game with my dad that year, Late June, Cards vs. Astros. The game seemed to drag, and I had to be up for work at 6 the next morning, so we left in the 6th inning. What cinched us leaving was Juan Acevedo, who was starting, walked Shane Reynolds, the opposing pitcher. That's when you know it isn't a good night. The Cards did score a couple of runs after we left, but it didn't make any difference to the result. That was the last game I went to until the series against Pittsburgh late last month. Not out of any disgust stemming from Acevedo walking a pitcher, though that earned him plenty of scorn from me, the opportunities just didn't come up. As to whether this could be the worst team, I believe they're more mediocre than anything else. They're 10th in runs scored and runs allowed, which isn't terrible, but isn't good in either category. So not bad enough, I think.

Looking For My Worst Cardinals Team - Part 6

Today I'm looking at the team that signaled the true end of the Herzog era. Like the 1988 team, this squad couldn't hit, but unlike the 1988 team, they can't blame so much of that on a leaguewide downturn in offense.

1990

Record: 70-92 (.432), outscored 698-599, -99 run differential
Pythagorean Record: 70-92 (.432)

Offensive Notes: Scored 599 runs (11th out 12), 4 players (4 starters, 4 reserves) with OPS+ > 100.

As you might expect, this team was bad at a lot of aspects of hitting. They were dead last in HRs, unsurprisingly, 11th in slugging and OPS, 8th in hits and on-base percentage, and 7th in walks and batting average. They were 5th in doubles, 3rd in triples, and 2nd in stolen bases, struck out the fewest times in the league, but that's about as far as the positives go.

You might expect, with that many above average hitters, that they'd fare a little better, but in most cases, the reserves are replacing some of the starters. Vince Coleman (.741 OPS, 104 OPS+) was suspended for 7 games at one point, and didn't play for 2 weeks in September, replaced largely by Bernard Gilkey (.859, 135 in 72 PAs). Willie McGee (.819, 126, won the NL batting title with a .335 BA) was the best hitting starter on the team, but he was traded to Oakland in July, replaced by Ray Lankford (.805, 121 in 139 PAs). McGee did net the Cardinals Felix Jose (.780, 113, in 93 PAs0, and he replaced Milt Thompson (.620, 71, .290 OBP) in RF. Todd Zeile was barely above average (.731, 101 OPS+). The upside (offensively) was by the end of the year, Zeile had taken over 3rd base from Terry Pendleton (.601, 65), and Tom Pagnozzi (.693, 91, in 237 PAs) had become starting catcher, which meant a net upgrade. Pedro Guerrero was slightly above-average as well. The problem had been the middle infield of Ozzie Smith and Jose Oquendo (77 and 85 OPS+es, respectively), combined with Thompson and Pendleton's ineptitude, and the lack of any decent bench bats besides early-season trade acquisition Rex Hudler (.770, 110 in 235 PAs). Tim Jones, Denny Walling, Craig Wilson, Geronimo Pena, players who might have taken at-bats from the weak-hitting starters in the infield, all had an OPS+ below 70, not an improvement.

The team had just two starters (Oquendo and McGee) with OBPs of .350 or better (and McGee's .385 was heavily batting average influenced). Coleman was next at .340. Lankford, Gilkey, and Dave Collins were all above .350, but combined for roughly 280 PAs. Guerrero, Coleman, and McGee were the only starters slugging above .400 (and Coleman's was exactly .400). Hudler, Lankford, Gilkey, and Jose were the sole bench players in that category. Zeile led the team with 15 HRs, and Pedro and McGee were the only Cardinals with more than 30 doubles. Pendleton, Ozzie and Zeile each managed at least 20, for what that's worth. 1990 was Ozzie's worst offensive season since 1981, when he was still a Padre.

Pitching Notes: Allowed 698 runs (8th out of 12), 8 pitchers (4 starters, 4 relievers) with ERA+ > 100.

The 1990 Cardinals pitching staff excelled at two things: The allowed the fewest HRs in the league, and the 3rd fewest walks. Normally, few walks and few home runs would be a recipe for success, even finishing 11th in strikeouts, but it didn't work here. While the paltry offense doesn't help, I don't believe the bullpen was much good, either. There was only one pitcher anywhere close to overpowering (judging by K/BB), and that was the closer. Considering the Cardinals finished last in complete games, they needed more from the guys bridging the gap, and they didn't get it.

Not that the starters were blameless. Magrane slumped from the year before, his ERA increasing by over three-quarters of a run (ERA+ still 106), and his innings dropping by 30. Jose DeLeon regressed, his ERA climbing from 3.05 to 4.43 (86), and his innings dropping by over 60. He was the only starter to average more than 7 Ks/9 innings (8.1). Bryn Smith didn't work out as a free agent pick-up, totaling less than 150 innings, with a 4.27 ERA himself. Ken Hill only made 14 starts (plus 3 relief appearances), and spent the rest of the year in the minors, probably due to his 5.49 ERA and 1.424 WHIP. On a positive note, he did lower his walk rate, and raise his K rate, so his K/BB went from 1.13 to 1.76. Greg Matthews made 10 lousy starts.

The bright points in the rotation came down a Herzog reclamation project, an old ace coming home, and a rookie making a late season call-up. Bob Tewksbury made 20 starts and 8 relief appearances, totaling 145 innings. He posted a 3.47 ERA (110 ERA+), with 3 complete games, 2 of which were shutouts, 1 save, a WHIP of only 1.142 (Magrane's for example, was 1.293, and the other starters mentioned above were considerably worse than him), and walked 0.9 batters per 9 innings, which is how he had a 3.33 K/BB while striking out only 3.1/9. John Tudor had missed most of 1989 with a shoulder surgery, the Cardinals took a chance on him, and it paid off. Tudor made 22 starts, plus 3 relief appearances, and in 145 innings posted a 2.40 ERA (159), with a complete game, a 2.10 K/BB, , a 1.025 WHIP, and allowed only 7.4 hits per 9 innings. Omar Olivares came along late to make 6 starts and 3 relief appearances, and in just under 50 innings, posted a 2.92 ERA. His 1.18 K/BB ratio was troubling, but he was able to get away with it.

But if you only have a handful of reliable starters, you need a lot of good relievers, and the Cardinals didn't have them. Of the relievers with an ERA+ better than 100, one was Stan Clarke, who pitched 3.1 innings. Another was Tom Niedenfuer (3.46, 110), but he went 0-6, had a WHIP of 1.4, and a K/BB of only 1.28 (4.4 K/9, 3.5 BB/9). Ken Dayley was still there, but his 3.56 ERA (107), wasn't terribly encouraging. He did however, keep hitters to less than 8 hits/9 innings, and posted a somewhat more acceptable 1.70 K/BB. Lee Smith, acquired in April from Boston for Tom Brunansky (why Milt Thompson was starting in RF), was the best they had. He saved 27 games, had an ERA+ of 182, a WHIP of 1.136 (not overpowering, but good), 9.2 K/9, and a K/BB of 3.5.

There wasn't much else to be happy about in the 'pen. Scott Terry, demoted from the rotation (where he made 24 starts in 1989), posted a 4,75 ERA. Frank DiPino had a 4.56, plus a WHIP over 1.50. Ricky Horton pitched 42 innings with an ERA of 4.93 and a WHIP over 1.7. Mike Perez had a mildly encouraging 13 innings at the end of the year, but the low strikeout rate (3.3/9), without a Tewksburian walk rate (Perez walked 2/9), was not great.

Defensive Notes: The '90 squad wasn't the defensive whiz the '86 team had been, but they also weren't the mediocrity the '88 squad had been either. Pagnozzi was a +10 in roughly 500 innings (compared to Zeile's -1 in close to 900). Oquendo was a +2 (little disappointing for him, actually), Pendleton a +10, Ozzie a +14. Coleman managed a +7, and Thompson a +8. Guerrero was a problem at 1st, and Zeile was slightly below average at 3rd as well. Gilkey was solid in LF, while Lankford (starting the trend early) was slightly below average in CF. Felix Jose was a downgrade defensively from both Thompson and Rex Hudler, with the caveat he only played 170 innings in RF that year (and Gilkey only logged 144 in LF). As a whole, the team was a +35.

Other Notes: The team had one winnings month (July, 15-13), even though they were outscored by 10 runs, and one .500 month, August, even though they outscored their opponents by 22. Their worst month was September (10-18, outscored by 41). The month they scored the most runs in was June (124), but it was also the month they allowed the most runs (148), so they wound up 11-17. They were 21-24 in one-run games, which was better than their 17-25 record in blowouts. Not too surprising with their offense, it would be hard to score enough runs to blow another team out. They did manage a 7-6 record in extra innings.

The team hit basically the same against righties (.680) or lefties (.673), but their right-handed hitters were better than the lefties (.692 vs. 661). Their left-handed and right-handed pitchers had the same OPS against, .701, but as a team, lefthanders did much better against them (.729 vs. 678). The Cardinals had their best OPS in August, even though June was their highest scoring month (June was their second highest OPS). July was their second worst hitting month (better only than May). As you might expect, the pitchers did their worst in June, and their best came in July, though August wasn't bad either. Those were the only two months the Cardinals' pitchers kept the opponents' OPS below .700 (.632 in July, .649 in August).

Final Thoughts: Like the 1986 team, the Cardinals were as good as their run differential said they were. Unfortunately, that wasn't very good. As typical for bad Cardinals teams, they had no power, and they didn't get on base enough for their speed to make up the difference. The starting pitching was shaky, as the two guys who had anchored the rotation the year before (Magrane and DeLeon) declined severely. If they could have pitched closer to their 1989 selves, combined with Tudor and Tewksbury, maybe the Cardinals could have reached .500. It didn't work out like that, though. Between this and the 1988 team, I have a hard time deciding who's worse. The '88 team scored fewer runs, but it was a down year for offense all around, and the allowed a lot fewer runs as well. The '90 team was slightly better pitching team, especially considering it wasn't a down year offensively, and about 3 wins better on defense, even with a full year of Pedro Guerrero at first.

This was the year where the Herzog championship team pretty much were done. A lot of that was Herzog quitting partway through the season, but most of the guys who were left were gone by the end of the year as well. This was Rickey Horton and John Tudor's last season. Greg Matthews had to go elsewhere for employment, as did Ken Dayley. Danny Cox had been out of commission since June of 1988. Todd Worrell had hurt his elbow September of 1989, he wouldn't return to the mound until 1992. Joe Magrane was still there, but he'd miss all of 1991 with elbow surgery, and make only 5 starts in 1992, then 20 more in 1993 before being traded to the Angels.

Tony Pena, had left before the 1990. Jack Clark and Tom Herr were long gone. The Cardinals traded McGee during the '90 season, and benched Pendleton and Coleman for long stretches because they didn't intend to resign them anyway. In 1991, pretty much the only active player who had a big role on the World Series teams was Ozzie, still the starting shortstop, and Oquendo who collected 312 PAs as a utility guy in '87, and was now the starting second baseman. It probably needed to be done. The '90 Cardinals were lousy, and it couldn't hurt to try some new, young players. However, there was a perception that the team was being run by suits not interested in winning, only in profit. To that end, it was felt they'd decided it would be more profitable to have a cheap, young team that didn't win as much, rather than a more expensive, older team. The fans would still show up in sufficient numbers for it to work out financially.

I don't doubt making a profit was in the minds of the brewery folks running the team. For myself though, I enjoyed the young teams the Cardinals trotted out in the early nineties. I'd enjoy them a lot more if they'd won a World Series, or at least made the playoffs, but they were posting winning records for a few years there at the start, which provided hope.

Looking For My Worst Cardinals Team - Part 5

Up to this point, the Cardinals' teams we've looked at have been good enough at some aspect of the game I've been inclined to count them out of the running. These last four teams, however, were in the bottom half of the league in both runs scored and runs prevented, so I imagine their cases will be a lot stronger.

1988

Record: 76-86 (.469), outscored 633-578, -55 run differential
Pythagorean Record: 74-88 (.457)

Offensive Notes: Scored 578 runs (11th out of 12), 9 players (3 starters, 6 reserves) with OPS+ > 100.

This Cardinals team wasn't completely terrible at hitting. They were 4th in hits and batting average (though the team average was .249, 1988 was a pitchers' year), 6th in triples and OBP (again, just .309), 1st in stolen bases (234). The problem was a lack of power. When the Herzog Cardinals were good, they usually had at least one real power bat, say Jack Clark or George Hendrick, maybe Keith Hernandez. The latter two were long gone, and the ownership dithered around on making Clark a fair offer so long, he eventually signed elsewhere. The team was 11th in doubles, and 12th in HRs. They were dead last in slugging (.337). Even when they could get guys on base - which at a .309 clip, wasn't that often - they couldn't drive them in.

A word about all the above-average hitters. Most of them were non-factors. John Morris and Rod Booker had 39 plate appearances (PAs) apiece. Steve Lake had just 59 as the 3rd catcher. Tom Herr was traded midway through April for Tom Brunansky. Bob Horner (.703, 102 in 247 PAs) was the starting first baseman into early June, when he hurt his shoulder and missed the remainder of the year. Pedro Guerrero (.787, 125 in 176 Pas), his replacement, didn't arrive until a mid-August trade. That leaves Willie McGee (.701, 101), Brunansky (.773, 121), and Jose Oquendo (.700, 102), as the only three above average hitters who were available the majority of the season.

There were some semi-useful hitters. Ozzie Smith had a .686 OPS (98), and Tony Pena a .680 (94) behind the plate. But Terry Pendleton, Vince Coleman, and Tom Pagnozzi (second on the team in PAs among non-starters) were all below .655 in OPS. Guerrero and Brunansky were the only hitters with a slugging above .400, and Pedro, Ozzie, and Oquendo the only ones with an OBP of .350 or better (Brunansky had a .345, and Horner a .348 before his injury). The Cardinals simply couldn't muster enough good bats to fill a lineup, or even half a lineup, on most days.

Pitching Notes: Allowed 633 runs (9th out of 12), 7 pitchers (3 starters, 4 relievers) with ERA+ > 100.

The Cardinals pitching staff wasn't good at much that year. 9th in complete games, 8th in ERA, walked the 5th most batters, struck out the 8th most, allowed the 5th most hits in the league. The only thing they did well was avoid home runs, as they allowed the 3rd fewest (91). That was still 20 more than their team hit, but that's not really the pitchers' fault. Todd Worrell and Jose DeLeon were the only pitchers to average more than 7 K/9 (excluding Scott Arnold, who threw 6 innings that year). Among 5 of the pitchers with the most starts (DeLeon, Joe Magrane, John Tudor, Danny Cox, and Greg Mathews), none allowed more than 0.6 HR/9 innings, and Tudor and Magrane were at 0.3/9.

I included Scott Terry with the starters in the above listing. He only started 11 games, versus 40 relief appearances, but 75 of his 129.3 innings came as a starter, and he pitched quite well in that opportunity. His ERA was 2.40, his WHIP was 1.093, his K/BB was 2.53. And he was still no better than the 3rd best starter the Cardinals employed that year, 1 and 2 being Magrane and Tudor. Magrane won the ERA title with a 2.18 (161 ERA+), though he barely reached the innings requirement (165.3). Tudor posted a 2.29 (153) in 21 starts before being traded to the Dodgers for Pedro Guerrero. Despite that, their combined record was 11-14, with Magrane going 5-9, even with 3 shutouts. In one of those odd quirks, DeLeon had a rare (for him) winning season, going 13-10 in 225.3 innings, even though his 3.67 ERA was below average (95).

The rotation was a bit of a mess, as 8 pitchers logged at least 10 starts that season. DeLeon was the only one to reach 30 starts. Magrane made 24 starts before being sent to AAA for some reason. To preserve his confidence or his ERA lead, I don't know. It shouldn't have been the workload, as he threw more innings the year before. Tudor was traded to the Dodgers, Bob Forsch (12 starts, 18 relief appearances) was swapped to Houston for utiltyman Denny Walling. Cox (13 starts) suffered a shoulder injury that ended his career as a starter. Mathews (13 starts) wasn't good, and Larry McWilliams (17 starts, 25 relief appearances) bounced from rotation to bullpen all year.

With the rotation in flux, it took its toll on the 'pen. Ken Dayley (2.77, 127) wasn't too bad, though his 2-7 record suggests troubles. Todd Worrell threw 90 innings of 3.00 ERA ball, saved 32 games. John Costello put in 49.3 innings with a 1.81 ERA. But Dan Quisenberry put up an ERA over 6.00 in 38 innings, and Steve Peters did the same in 45.

Defensive Notes: Sometimes a poor hitting or pitching team can be mitigated by an excellent fielding team. The '88 Cardinals couldn't pull that off. As a team, they were -2 runs defensively, compared to the '86 squad that was +94.

They had their strong points. Ozzie was +18 at SS, and Pendleton +11 at 3rd. Oquendo's +8 in 500+ innings at 2nd offset Luis Alicea's -5 in over 700 innings. Tony Pena was +3 behind the plate. Unfortunately, Horner was a -3 at 1st (though Pedro was +1 in 300 innings), and the outfielders were atrocious at worst, unimpressive at best. Coleman -2, McGee -7, Brunansky -10 from left to right. None of their backups played much, and most weren't very good, though Curt Ford managed a +1 in 112 innings in LF, and a +2 in 69 innings in RF.

Other Notes: The team had three winning months: May (18-10), August (17-12), and September (14-13). The month that killed them was July, when they went 8-19, and were outscored 119-76. They were slightly above .500 at home, and 5 games below in both blowouts and one-run games. They did well against the Phillies and Cubs (combined 23-13), but were hammered by Montreal and the Mets (9-27).

They hit considerably better against lefties (.700 OPS) than righties (.621). Unsurprisingly, May (.686) was their best hitting month by 13 points, and July (.561) was their worst by almost 80. Not reflected in the 8-14 record, but April was their 2nd best month. Their pitchers were better against righties than lefties, and better at home than on the road. Interestingly, both their strikeout and walk rates were higher on the road, though unfortunately, the walk rate increased more. Their best performance was August (.623) by 30 points, their worst, no surprise, July (.727), by 17 points.

Final Thoughts: There's not much impressive about this team other than their ability to steal bases and avoid home runs. Admittedly, offense was down across the league that year, but the Cards were bad even compared to the others. I can't say they're the frontrunners, since I know who the remaining 3 squads are, but they deserve consideration.

Looking For My Worst Cardinals Team - Part 4

Today I'm going to look at the earliest occurring of the possibilities, the 1986 squad.

1986

Record: 79-82 (.491), outscored 611-601, -10 run differential
Pythagorean Record: 79-82 (.491)

Offensive Notes: Scored 601 runs (12th out of 12), 3 players (2 starters, 1 reserve) with OPS+ > 100.

1986's Cardinals' lineup was pretty hopeless. In addition to being last in runs, they were also last in hits, doubles, home runs, batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage (by over 40 points in that last category). They were second in triples, fifth in walks, first in stolen bases (262), and struck out the second fewest times in the league, for what that's worth.

There are a couple of culprits. One, Jack Clark had a torn ligament in his thumb, limiting him to 279 PAs, and only a .784 OPS (116 OPS+). In 1985, he produced an .895 (149 OPS+), and in 1987 it would be 1.055 (176). Without him, the Cardinals had a lightweight lineup, and pitchers could afford to be more careful, since there was no longer a dangerous slugger to drive in any runners they might let on base.

The other problem was several Cardinals had excellent years in 1985, and they came back to Earth. Part of that is likely due to many of the hitters being extremely dependent on batting average, as they didn't hit for much power or walk much. If the hits weren't falling, they weren't productive. Willie McGee (.676, 86, and missing time with leg injuries) and Vince Coleman (.581, 62) being a couple of prime examples. Terry Pendleton didn't hit, but he hadn't hit in 1985 either, so that wasn't a change. Tom Herr's numbers suffered from a 50 point drop in BA, and Mike LaValliere, though an improvement over Mike Heath (who he shared catching duties with until Heath was traded to Detroit in August), was no comparison to Darrell Porter who had half the catching duties in 1985. Ozzie Smith (.709, 98) had a 28 point drop in his slugging, but partially compensated with a 21 point rise in OBP (to a team-leading .376). Andy van Slyke (.795, 118) hit slightly better than he had the year before.

Only two of their reserves were of much use offensively: Jose Oquendo, who produced a .359 OBP in 158 PAs, and Mike Laga, who slugged .500 in 52 PAs. Unfortunately, Oquendo had no power (.341 SLG), and Laga didn't get on base (.308 OBP). None of the others could do better than Curt Ford's .682 OPS (88 OPS+), and most were well below it.

Pitching Notes: Allowed 611 runs (3rd out of 12), 9 pitchers (4 starters, 5 relievers) with ERA+ > 100.

Fortunately the pitching corps was able to partially stem the tide, impressive considering the problems it faced. Danny Cox missed time after he broke his leg jumping off a seawall, but still finished with a 2.90 ERA (127 ERA+) and 8 complete games. John Tudor was shut down in September with a tired shoulder, but in 217 innings he did throw, posted a 2.92 (127 ERA+). Bob Forsch led the team with 230 innings, and a 3.25 ERA (114). The innings total was the most for Forsch since 1982. Greg Mathews was called up partway through the season, and in 22 starts was basically league average (101 ERA+). None of them were overpowering, all striking out less than one batter every two innings, but none of them allowed more than 8.6 hits/9 innings, 2.7 BB/9, or more than 0.9 HRs/9. Tim Conroy was the strikeout pitcher of the rotation (6.2 K/9), but also the worst of the bunch by far (5.23 ERA, 71 ERA+, over 4 walks, 9 hits, and 1 HR/9).

The bullpen lost the primary closer of the previous year, Jeff Lahti, after only 2 innings, but Todd Worrell stepped in and did fairly well, saving 36 games (though he was tagged with the loss 10 times). Even as the supposed fireball closer, he struck out only 6.3 batters per 9 innings. The strikeout guy in the bullpen was actually Ken Dayley (7.7 K/9). It was lower than the previous year though, and combined with a rise in his WHIP, from 1.27 to 1.37, his ERA climbed to 3.26 (114). Rickey Horton had an excellent year doing whatever was required, starting 9 games (throwing 1 complete game), finishing 12 games (collecting 3 saves), and throwing over 100 innings (Worrell did this as well, tossing over 103 innings).

It's interesting their pitching staff was so effective at not allowing runs, considering they weren't overpowering. They struck out over 100 fewer batters than the team with the next fewest Ks. However, they walked the fewest batters, which probably helped, even though they allowed the fifth most home runs, suggesting a lot of those were solo shots. That's supported by the fact they allowed the 5th fewest hits. Opponents didn't make successful contact often, but when they did, they tended to hit it out of the park.

Defensive Notes: One thing that surprises me looking at the numbers is the Cardinals don't seem to be extraordinarily good defenders. I figured with so few strikeouts, that would be the key to their success at run prevention. Maybe it was, as every starter was at least 1 run above average, but I expected more high totals like Ozzie and Pendleton's. Ozzie was 16 runs above average at SS, Pendleton 18 at third. Andy van Slyke (in 600 innings) and Tito Landrum (in 400) were both +10 in RF. Some of the backups were below average (such as Oquendo at SS and second base, van Slyke in CF), but not by very much. I guess they add up, because when I total across all positions, they defense comes out +94, which would be worth 9 wins. Looks more impressive that way.

Other Notes: The team had a winning record from June through September, 62-51. It was just at the beginning and ends of the season they struggled (17-27 through the end of May, 0-4 in October). They even managed to outscore their opponents in August and September, in August by increasing their scoring (it's the only month they managed more than 110 runs), in September by limiting their opponents (96 runs allowed in 27 games). They were 4 games under .500 in both 1-run games (28-32), and blowouts (15-19).

They were a better hitting and pitching team at home, though they weren't that good of a hitting team at home (.678 OPS). It's interesting their best hitter OPS came in May, and their pitching OPS that month was average for them (worse than April and June, better than all the other months), yet they had their worst winning percentage (9-17). What's stranger, they did that while being outscored by just one run the entire month.

Final Thoughts: I don't have any particular memories of this team. It's honestly stretching it to include them as part of my time as a fan, as I was pretty young back then. Not that it matters, this team was far too good at defensive and pitching to be the worst. Of the 8 teams I'm considering, they have the best record, and their Pythagorean Record suggests that wasn't a fluke (compared to say, the 1994 team which was 4 games better than they ought to have been).

I do have a fondness for the concept of this team. The focus on pitching, defense, and most of all speed. I know the math says a base stealer needs to be successful at least 70% (and it may be 75%) of the time for it to be worthwhile, and so most teams are better off not running, but I love that aggressive style of play. Try and steal bases, try and stretch that double into a triple, put pressure on the other team to throw them out. Of course, when only one player on the team reaches double digits in home runs (van Slyke, 13) what other choice do they have? When the hits aren't falling (and with a team batting average of .236, they weren't), it's going to be rough. Still, there wasn't another team in the league quite like it, and I think that's pretty cool.

Looking For My Worst Cardinals Team - Part 3

Sorry it's been over a month. I keep getting pulled away from home on my time off. Anyway, today I'm looking at the 1997 team, which marks the arrival of Mark McGwire in St. Louis.

1997

Record: 73-89 (.451); outscored 708-689, -16 run differential
Pythagorean Record: 79-83 (.488)

Offensive Notes: Scored 689 runs (11th out of 14); 6 players (2 starters, 4 reserves) with OPS+ > 100.

As the run total might suggest, the Cardinals were not an impressive offensive team. 12th in hits and batting average, 10th in slugging and OBP, 8th in doubles, walks, and HRs. They did manage to place 4th in triples, and 3rd in stolen bases, but their highest rank came from striking out more than any other team. Hooray, he said flatly.

In terms of lineup construction, the Cardinals of '97 were similar to the 2009 squad. For 4 months, one dangerous hitter (Ray Lankford/Albert Pujols), a couple of somewhat above average hitters (DeLino DeShields and Willie McGee/Skip Schumaker and Ryan Ludwick), and a host of below average hitters. Both teams even added a really good hitter in July (McGwire/Matt Holliday).

Of course, Lankford isn't Pujols' equal as a hitter, but he did throw up a .996 OPS (159 OPS+). He could play Holliday to McGwire's Albert, though. McGwire posted a 1.095 OPS (182 OPS+) in 224 plate appearance, ranking second on the team in HRs with 24 (to Lankford's 31). McGwire is listed as a reserve though, since Dmitri Young actually played the majority of the innings at first for StL that year. The other starter was DeShields, who posted an .804 OPS (111 OPS+), with 26 doubles, 14 triples, 11 HRs, and 55 SBs, rebounding from a disastrous 1996 with the Dodgers (OPS+ of 60 that year). Unfortunately, most of the other starters were below average, or in the case of Mike DeFelice (.628, 65 OPS+), lousy. Of the other 5 starters, Dmitri Young and Ron Gant each posted .698 OPSes, John Mabry (taking over in RF for the mostly injured Brian Jordan) had a .723, and Gary Gaetti and Royce Clayton sat in between. While none of the five had an OPS+ below 83, Mabry's was the best at 91. The common thread was poor batting averages, and an inability to draw walks, leading to low OBP (Clayton, Gaetti and Gant were all at .310 OBPs or lower), and relatively low SLGs (Gaetti being tops there with .404), at least in part because their batting averages were so low. Gant, for example, had an isolated power of .159, which isn't bad, but when his average is only .229, it means his slugging is only .388.

Among the reserves, Micah Franklin's 129 OPS+ was 37 PAs, Phil Plantier's 107 consisted of 129 PAs he made after being traded to St. Louis as part of a swap of broken-down left-handed pitchers (San Diego received Danny Jackson, StL Fernando Valenzuela). Willie McGee was the only above-average bench player to receive significant time, posting a .767 (101 OPS+) in 300 PAs as the 4th outfielder. Though below average, Tom Lampkin's .715 (88) was a significant improvement at the catching position over DiFelice.

Pitching Notes: Allowed 708 runs (5th out of 14), 10 pitchers (4, starters, 6 relievers) with ERA+ > 100.

The Cardinals pitching was their saving grace. They allowed the second-fewest HRs, and the 4th-fewest BBs, which offsets being 8th in Ks. They might have finished even better, but injuries struck the rotation throughout the season. Donovan Osborne made only 14 starts, and struggled, posting a 4.93 ERA (85 ERA+). His WHIP (1.332) suggests it probably shouldn't have been that high, but he did allow 1.1 HRs/9 innings, which may explain it. Manny Aybar made 12 starts, posting a 4.24 (99 ERA+) in 68 innings. However, his WHIP (1.397) was higher than Osborne's, and his K/BB ratio (2.22. vs 1.41) worse, suggesting he was lucky.

The front four of the rotation were the key. Alan Benes posted a 2.89 (144) in 162 innings before he needed surgery in late July. He was never an effective starter again. His older brother Andy made 26 starts, covering 177 innings, with a 3.10 ERA (135) He lead the starters in both WHIP (1.186) and K/BB (2.87/1). He missed time with knee and back ailments. Todd Stottlemyre posted a 3.88 (108) in 181 innings, but was shut down in September with a tired arm. Only Matt Morris, originally called up to replace an injured Osborne, lasted the season, throwing 217 innings, with a 3.19 ERA (131 ERA+).

The relief core was lead by Dennis Eckersley, though he posted only a 109 ERA+, and lost 5 games. He was prone to the longball, allowing 9 in only 53 innings. The best reliever was likely T.J. Mathews, who had a 195 ERA+ in 46 innings before being traded to Oakland as part of the McGwire deal. His WHIP is 1.283, not great, but better than most of the other commonly used relievers, as was his 2.56/1 K/BB ratio. Case in point, key lefty Tony Fossas. While he had a 107 ERA+, his WHIP was over 1.7, he allowed 1.2 HRs/9 IP, and he walked a batter every other inning. So the ERA doesn't tell the whole story (though the 7 losses help fill in the gaps).

Defensive Notes: The mitigating factor for all those sub-average hitters is they were all at least a little better than average with the glove. Admittedly, DiFelice was only +1 run, the same as Lampkin, but it's something. Gaetti (+14.6) and Clayton (+15) in particular distinguished themselves. Gant, Mabry, and Dmitri Young also did well (all at least +6), though McGwire posted a -2.4 after joining the team. Willie McGee was a strange case, perhaps owing to sample sizes. In RF, where he logged 298 innings, he was average. In CF (122 innings), he was +2.6, but in LF (92), he was -1.7. Overall, the team was spectacular at 2 positions, solidly better than average at 3 others until a) Mabry was injured and replaced by McGee (though Mabry himself was a downgrade from Jordan, who was +11.5 in 210 innings), and b) Young was replaced by McGwire. To be fair, McGwire's offensive numbers (once he got going) probably more than made up for his shortcomings with the glove, while Young's fielding stats probably can't compensate for his poor hitting. As a whole, the 1997 Cardinals were 58 runs better than average defensively.

Other Points: The team had one winning month (June), and one other month where they outscored their opponents (May, went 13-14). While McGwire may have helped the offense, the team's performance didn't improve. They went from 100 runs in July, to 109 in August, to 132 in September. The problem was, they allowed, 113-132-150 over the same span and their record went from 12-15, 12-17, 10-16. This likely relates to the injuries of the Benes brothers and Stottlemyre, and possibly the weakening of the bullpen with the removal of Mathews. The team was also terrible in 1-run games, with a 20-33 record.

Interestingly, even with McGwire in place of Young, the Cards were a worse hitting team in the 2nd half of the season (.708 vs. .731 OPS). Their pitchers were quite good at home (opponents posted a .671 OPS), but not nearly as good on the road (.748). They were also better in the first half (.687) of the season than the second (.733), probably again owing to injuries in the rotation. The staff's best month was March/April (.661), which unfortunately was also the offense's worst month.

Final Thoughts: This team's too good at run prevention to be the worst. Period. That out of the way, I'm having a hard time recollecting precise thoughts of this team. It's blurred together with the 1998 and 1999 teams as ones that didn't win much, and had a constant shuffle of pitchers in the rotation, though '97 had nothing on the other two seasons when it came to that. The Cardinals making the playoffs in '96 had gotten my attention after the strike, and Ozzie was retired, so I couldn't be furious at LaRussa for not using him more, as I had been in '96.

I know I was frustrated at a game when Alan Benes took a no-hitter into the 9th against Milwaukee and wound up losing due to offensive ineptitude. My clearest memory is from early July, when the Cardinals played the Twins, and Willie McGee hit a game-winning homer in the 10th. That was the first and only time all seasons the Cardinals were at .500 (they started the year with a 6-game losing streak). Naturally, they followed it up by getting swept by the Pirates, and went right back in the tank. Still, I remember watching the game, then getting up the next morning to see the highlights on Sportscenter. I enjoyed it so much, I would watch, then ride my bike for an hour, get back just in time to see it again, then ride for an hour, watch it again, and so on. All morning.

Looking For My Worst Cardinals Team - Part 2

For part 2, I'm going to look at the 1995 squad, another team I think was a little too good in one area to be the worst of the last 25 years. They were pretty bad offensively though, so they have to be considered.

1995

Actual record: 62-81 (.434); equals 70-92; outscored 658-563, -86 run differential
Pythagorean Record: 61-82 (.427); equals 69-93

Offensive Notes: Scored 563 runs (14th out of 14 teams); 4 players (3 starters, 1 "reserve") with OPS+ > 100.

The 1995 Cardinals were a pitiful offensive team. They were last in the National League in hits, runs, batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging. They were 13th in HRs and walks, 11th in SBs, but they did have the 5th fewest walks. Only 3 players on the team managed more than 5 home runs or 10 stolen bases, so they lacked speed and power.

The 4 above-average hitters. I listed one as a reserve, and that was Todd Zeile, who wasn't really a reserve. He was the starting first baseman until his trade to the Cubs in June. But the trade means he didn't log the most innings at any position for the team. In 148 PAs, he put up an .835 OPS, or 121 OPS+. The three starters were the outfielders; Bernard Gilkey (.848, 123), Ray Lankford (.873, 129), and Brian Jordan (.827, 116). They all hit between 17 and 25 HRs, stole either 12 or 24 bases, and hit between .275 and .300.

They were the lone bright spots offensively. Tom Pagnozzi had a .569 OPS (50 OPS+), when he wasn't injured. Jose Oquendo (.616, 65) was the starting second baseman. Ozzie Smith missed three months (and didn't hit when he did play - .526 OPS, 41 OPS+ in 182 PAs), so Tripp Cromer (.586, 54) was the starting SS. Scott Cooper was the big free agent signing, but contributed a .634 OPS, which is a 69 OPS+. The only other starter remotely competent with the bat was Zeile's replacement, John Mabry (.752, 99). None of the bench players were any help at scoring runs, either. Danny Sheaffer had a 76 OPS+ backing up Pagnozzi, Darnell Coles (.657, 75) and Allen Battle (.672, 81) were the backup outfielders. Geronimo Pena was almost average with a 98 OPS+ in 124 PAs, but was on the DL 3 times that year.

Pitching Notes: Allowed 658 runs (6th in the NL), 11 pitchers (4 starters, 7 relievers) with an ERA+ >100.

This was the moderate saving grace for the team, they had a good bullpen, and a few decent starters. It's a bit surprising, because they weren't a terribly great in the peripheral stats. The team was 6th in the league in runs and ERA, but 13th in complete games and strikeouts. They allowed the 6th most home runs (though they were below league average), but the 5th fewest walks.

None of their starters were superb, but they were good enough. Mark Petkovsek (4.00, 105 ERA+) lead the team in starts and innings (21, 137.3), though his ERA as a starter was somewhat higher (4.16 in 125.3 innings). Donovan Osborne was probably the best starter (3.81, 110), along with Mike Morgan (3.88, 108), who was acquired from the Cubs for Zeile. Tom Urbani put up a 3.70 ERA (113 ERA+) overall, but only a 4.02 in 13 starts. Still significantly better than Allen Watson (4.96, 85, though his ERA in his 19 starts was 5.45) or Danny Jackson (5.90, 71, though Jackson spent time injured and learned he had thyroid cancer, so understandable, if frustrating for the fans). Morgan and Ken Hill (5.06, 83, traded to Cleveland in July) were the only two starters to average more than 6 innings per start. Osborne and Petkovsek were the only 2 with WHIPs below 1.30, and the highest strikeout rate was Osborne's 6.5/9 IP. He also had the best K/BB at 2.41, Petkovsek and Urbani were the only others with ratios better than 2 to 1, and only barely.

Fortunately, the Cardinals 'pen was good enough the starters didn't need to work deep into games. Tom Henke (1.82, 231) had an extraordinary final season, allowing only 2 home runs in 54.3 innings. Rich DeLucia, Jeff Parrett, and Rene Arocha all had ERA+ between 105 and 130, and Tony Fossas had a 287 ERA+. Add to that John Habyan (2.88, 147 in 40.7 innings) and T.J. Mathews (1.52, 270 in 29.7 innings), and it seems the Cardinals were quite good at protecting leads, if they could score enough to get one. Arocha's WHIP was 1.47, so he was probably lucky, but the others all had WHIPs below 1.30, and Henke, Fossas, Habyan, and Mathews were all below 1.2 (DeLucia wasn't far from that, 1.202).

Defensive Notes: The Cardinals defense was probably what helped their pitching be better than it was. It wasn't enough to make up for the offensive shortcomings, but it kept things close. Every single starting position player was at least average. Sometimes not by much, as Cromer was 1 run above average, and Gilkey was basically average. Other players were much better. Pagnozzi was +5 at catcher in 518.7 innings, and Oquendo was +4 at 2nd (417 innings), and +5.6 at SS (161.3 innings). The real star was Brian Jordan, who in 977.7 innings, was rated as being 20 runs better than average. Ray Lankford again demonstrated an odd split, as he was +6.7 on the road, but -4.5 at home. At least this year he was above average, rather than below. Largely because of Jordan, the team was +42 defensively.

Other Points: The team didn't have a winning record in any month. The closest they came was 13-13 in September. They were outscored in every month, the closest margin being 3 runs (111-108) in September. They were 39-33 at home, but 23-48 on the road. This is probably explained by the team's .719 OPS at home, vs. their .657 on the road (the pitchers allowed a .720 in StL, and .782 on the road). The pitchers seemed to get stronger as the season wore on, as opponents' OPS dropped each month. Or perhaps the team gradually eliminated the weak links. Danny Jackson spent some time on the DL, Ken Hill was traded, several young guys the league hadn't seen had a chance.

Final Thoughts: I have no attachment to this team, not even any memories of it, really. The strike had soured me on baseball, so I paid little attention when the labor strife was sorted out and baseball with non-replacement players resumed. I didn't even realize Ozzie was shelved for much of the season with a surgery. If I had watched, I don't know if this season would have bothered me more or less than the previous one. In '94 the team had to score a ton because they couldn't pitch, and this team had to keep the scores down because runs weren't coming easily. On most nights, there were five guys in the lineup hitting like a pitcher, and only one of them was actually a pitcher.

In general, this team was so good defensively, and good enough at pitching (especially the bullpen) they can't be worst. I mean the offense is bad, no question, but it's not the worst ranking they've had offensively in the last 25 years (I'll get to the owner of that dubious title, and why they aren't the worst either, in a couple of posts).

Looking For My Worst Cardinals Team - Part 1

It's my last day off before 10 straight days of work, so as good a time as any to start. First up 1994! One quick note: I'm going to give the actual record and winning percentage, but I'm also going to post what their record would have been with that winning percentage over 162 games, so it's somewhat more comparable to the other squads. Ditto for 1995, when I get to it.

1994

Actual record: 53-61 (.465); equals 75-87 record; outscored 621-535, -86 run differential
Pythagorean Record: 49-65 (.430); equals 70-92 record

Offensive Notes: Scored 535 runs (6th out of 14 teams); had 9 players (5 starters, 4 reserves) with an OPS+ of 100 (league average) or better.

A couple of things. Their rank in runs scored is why I think they're out of the running. I figure if a team's in the top half of the league, they probably aren't the worst. This squad was 3rd in the NL in doubles, and first in walks. That explains their ranking 4th in on-base percentage and 6th in slugging, despite being 9th in batting average. However, they were 9th in HRs, 7 in stolen bases, and struck out more than any other team in the league.

About the 9 better-than average hitters. Two of them accumulated fewer than 50 plate appearances a piece (John Mabry 25, Gerald Young 44), so their offensive impact was limited. Gerald Perry had only 92 PAs (.967 OPS, OPS+ of 153), but his role was almost exclusively pinch-hitter, so I suppose that was by design. The other bench player was Luis Alicea (.832, 118), who was almost a starter himself, as he was platooning at 2nd base with Geronimo Pena. Pena (.823, 114) was one of the five above-average starters, along with Gregg Jefferies (.880, 130) at first, Todd Zeile (.818, 113) at 3rd, Ray Lankford (.847, 121) in CF, and Mark Whiten (.849, 121) in RF.

The remaining starters were Tom Pagnozzi, who threw up a .743 OPS, good for a 94, Bernard Gilkey (.700, 85), and Ozzie Smith (.675, 78). The one thing these three players have in common is they were all better than average defensively for their positions (C, LF, SS, respectively). Among significant reserves, Brian Jordan put up a .730 (91) playing all 3 OF positions, Jose Oquendo (.674, 80) put up his usual OBP-heavy (.364) OPS while backing up the middle infield, and Terry McGriff (.580, 55) back up Pagnozzi.

Pitching Notes: Allowed 621 runs (13th in the NL); 5 pitchers (5 relievers, 0 starters) with ERA+ of 100 or better.

The Cardinals pitching staff was dreadful. They were better than only the Rockies in both runs allowed and ERA, and this was when the league was still starting to realize what a launching pad the Rockies played in. They were second worst in HRs allowed (134), and dead last in Ks. On the positive side, they walked the 5th fewest batters in the NL.

About the above-average pitchers. One of them did make some starts, Rene Arocha. For the season, he pitched 83 innings, with an ERA of 4.01 (ERA+ of 104). In his 7 starts, totaling 33.3 innings, he had an ERA of 6.48, and a WHIP (walks + hits/innings pitched) of 1.74. As a reliever, he pitched in 38 games, or 49.7 innings, with an ERA of 2.36, 11 saves, and a WHIP of 1.148. I figured since the majority of his innings (and his success) came as a reliever, that's what he would be considered (Baseball-Reference groups him with the relief pitchers on the 1994 team page).

Of the other 4, Gary Buckels compiled his 2.25 ERA (186 ERA+) over just 12 innings, so like Mabry and Young, his impact was fairly low (he accounts for 1.2% of the team's innings). The other 3 are John Rodriguez (60.3 IP, 4.03 ERA, 104), and Rob Murphy (40.3, 3.79, 110), the team's two lefties, as well as righty John Habyan (47.1, 3.23, 129).

That's the extent of the good news for the Cardinals: By the end of the (strike-shortened) season, they had four good relievers. Unfortunately, they had no good starters. Bob Tewksbury wasn't able to get by striking out only 4.6 batters per 9 IP. His home run rate rose to 1.3/9, the only time in six seasons as a Cardinals it exceeded 1/9. Not surprisingly, it's also his worst season, by far, with an ERA of 5.32 (ERA+ 0f 79). Allen Watson (ERA 5.52, 76) averaged just 5.3 innings a start, with a WHIP of 1.582, and more than 4 walks/9. In 12 starts, Omar Olivares averaged almost 6 innings, but had an ERA of 5.80, and walked 36, to only 25 Ks. Rick Sutcliffe was even worse. In his final season, he made 14 starts, averaged 4.7 innings a start, walked 30 to only 24 Ks, and posted an ERA of 6.78. The closest thing to a bright spot in the rotation was Vicente Palacios. In 17 starts, totaling 97.3 innings, he posted a 4.44 ERA, a 78K/31BB ratio, and a 1.202 WHIP.

Defensive Notes: When I saw how lousy their pitching was, I figured defense was the culprit. It's a problem the LaRussa Cardinals have. Because he and Dave Duncan stress getting groundballs, the pitchers who follow that strategy make themselves more dependent on their defense. Beyond the problems that come from random luck with BABIP, if the defense behind them is bad, they're going to struggle more than pitchers who can strike people out readily. Since the 1994 team had very few strikeout pitchers (Palacios and Habyan are the only two who exceeded 7K/9, which is not that impressive of a strikeout rate), they would be heavily dependent on their defense.

Looking it over, it wasn't as bad as I feared. There were weak points, and the sample sizes are small enough that they can certainly be questioned, but what we have suggests the Cardinals were solid at several positions. Tom Pagnozzi was 7 runs above average in about 600 innings, while McGriff was average in half that. In 481 innings, Geronimo was 2.3 runs above average, while in 412.3 innings, Alicea was that much below average. Oquendo was +3.6 runs in 124 innings at 2nd, and +2.6 runs in 118 innings at SS. Ozzie Smith was +11.8 in 822 innings. In 850 innings, Bernard Gilkey was +5.1, and Mark Whiten was +11.4 in 780 innings (his arm was +3 on its own). Brian Jordan was +2 in 135 LF innings, +2.7 in 69 CF innings, and +3.4 in 180 RF innings.

There were some weak spots. Alicea I already mentioned. In 902 innings, Ray Lankford was a -2.8, though he was +3.3 on the road, and -8.1 at home (his arm was +2). Zeile logged 960 innings at 3rd, and scored a -2.8. The weakest spot was first base, as Gregg Jefferies put up a -5.6 over 865.3 innings. Oddly, he was Lankford's opposite, scoring +0.4 at home, but -6.0 on the road. That might explain the pitchers' struggles, since the first basemen is involved in more plays than anyone (Jefferies logged twice as many chances as any other Cardinal). If your weakest defender is also the one with the most opportunities, that's going to increase the chances there will be mistakes. Still, while Jefferies was below average, his numbers don't suggest someone so bad that he single-handedly torpedoed the entire pitching staff. As a whole, the team was 35 runs better than average defensively, so they were actually helping the pitchers be better than they were. Frightening.

Most likely, Tewksbury was due to have more bad luck (or lose the precise control a pitcher with his limited stuff has to have), Allen Watson was never any good, Sutcliffe retired after this season for a reason, and the Cardinals were missing healthy contributions from some pitchers who could have helped a little (Rheal Cormier and Donovan Osborne. The former struggled, and the latter missed the entire year).

Other Points: The team's record grew worse as the season progressed. They were 12-9 in April, 27-27 in May and June, then fell apart in July (8-20). The reason isn't readily apparent. The team posted a .755 OPS in April, and a .756 in July. Their pitchers allowed a .796 in April, and an .824 in July, which is worse, but not that much worse. The pitchers were worse in May (.852), and so were the hitters (.742), but they managed a 14-14 record. Considering they were outscored by 33 runs in May, they were probably a bit lucky. The team seems to have been good (or lucky) in close game, going 21-13 in 1-run contests, in contrast to their 13-23 record in games decided by 5+ runs. The other strange thing is the team was 30-28 on the road, but 23-35 at home. This despite the fact their OPS is basically the same (.754 home, .752 road), and so was their opponents (.818 home, .822 road).

Final Thoughts: This was a rough year as a fan. Not just because of the strike, since it probably spared me from watching this team stumble through the last month and a half. The previous three years the Cardinals had won 84, 83, and 87 games. They had a lot of young guys, either from their farm systems or ones they had traded guys from their '80s championship teams to get. This was the season things were hopefully going to come together, and they'd challenge for a playoff spot, especially since they were out of the East, where they'd been stuck behind Montreal and one of the two Pennsylvania teams the past few seasons. Obviously, things did not work out. It was the Reds who took advantage of the new division.

I went to two games with my dad. A double-header against Atlanta on the 22nd of July. It's the only time I can remember sitting in outfield seats, left field in this case. The Cards were making up several games against the Braves, because they played a double-header against them the night before as well. They split that one, but won both this time. Tom Urbani threw 8.3 shutout innings in the first game, which probably explains why I always wanted him to get more opportunities to start while he was a Cardinal. He could never seem to break into the rotation consistently though, which hardly seems fair considering the number of chances Allen Watson had. The main thing I remember from the second game was it was delayed for a long time in the first inning, as Tony Tarasco hurt himself stealing second. Rick Sutcliffe pitched well-enough (made it into the 6th! Whoo!), and Rene Arocha struck out Fred McGriff to end the game (I think Arocha got a favorable call on strike two, because I remember McGriff being annoyed by the call). So that was a good night, even if we didn't make it home until after 2 AM. Of course, the Cardinals seized upon the momentum of the two victories and promptly lost 10 of their next 11 games. Over the course of those 11 games, they held their opponents to less than 4 runs once (a game they lost 3-2), but allowed 7 or more 9 times (including their lone win, 10-7).

This team was bad, no doubt, and worse than their record suggests. Still, they were an average offensive team, making up for a lack of power and surprising lack of speed with a patient lineup, and were not the defensive disasters I expected them to be. Their pitching is lousy, but I don't think horrific pitching alone can make a team the worst I've seen.

For My Next Series Of Time-Wasting Posts

I'm going to try and determine which is the worst St. Louis Cardinals team of my fandom, so from 1985 to now. I started thinking about this sometime last fall, while reading one of Joe Posnanski's posts on the Royals. He said he thought the 2009 Royals might be the worst version he had covered.

It wasn't as simple as them having the worst record, which they didn't. It was more the fact that they were terrible in all facets. Even with Zack Grienke, who would end up winning the Cy Young, their rotation was not very good. Even Joakim Soria, an excellent young closer, their bullpen was lousy. They had Billy Butler, who hit more than 20 HRs and 50 doubles at the age of 23, something only done by 7 hitters before him, all Hall of Famers or potential future Hall of Famers, yet they weren't good at hitting for average, or hitting for power, or drawing walks. They weren't a speed team, nor were they a good defensive team. Actually, they were the worst fielding team in the league, according to some statistics. Even the front office was doing poorly, giving Kyle Farnsworth multi-year contracts, and trading for Yuni Betancourt, who the Mariners couldn't wait to rid themselves of. Even with some very good players, they were simply a disaster.

So I want to do the same with the Cardinals. Fortunately, they've been good enough over the last 25 years, I don't have too many teams to sift through. Sticking solely to teams with losing records, I have the following years: 1986, 1988, 1990, 1994, 1995, 1997, 1999, and 2007. So over the next, however long this takes me, I'm going to go through each year, discuss them a bit, based on what I remember or can look up, and eventually, I'll try and settle on the worst team. I've already essentially weeded four teams out on contention, on the grounds they were a little too good at either scoring runs, or run prevention, but I still want to discuss them, as taking a more in-depth look may change my mind. Anyway, that's what I have planned, in addition to any other posts I happen to feel like putting up.