Looking For My Worst Cardinals Team - Part 4

Today I'm going to look at the earliest occurring of the possibilities, the 1986 squad.

1986

Record: 79-82 (.491), outscored 611-601, -10 run differential
Pythagorean Record: 79-82 (.491)

Offensive Notes: Scored 601 runs (12th out of 12), 3 players (2 starters, 1 reserve) with OPS+ > 100.

1986's Cardinals' lineup was pretty hopeless. In addition to being last in runs, they were also last in hits, doubles, home runs, batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage (by over 40 points in that last category). They were second in triples, fifth in walks, first in stolen bases (262), and struck out the second fewest times in the league, for what that's worth.

There are a couple of culprits. One, Jack Clark had a torn ligament in his thumb, limiting him to 279 PAs, and only a .784 OPS (116 OPS+). In 1985, he produced an .895 (149 OPS+), and in 1987 it would be 1.055 (176). Without him, the Cardinals had a lightweight lineup, and pitchers could afford to be more careful, since there was no longer a dangerous slugger to drive in any runners they might let on base.

The other problem was several Cardinals had excellent years in 1985, and they came back to Earth. Part of that is likely due to many of the hitters being extremely dependent on batting average, as they didn't hit for much power or walk much. If the hits weren't falling, they weren't productive. Willie McGee (.676, 86, and missing time with leg injuries) and Vince Coleman (.581, 62) being a couple of prime examples. Terry Pendleton didn't hit, but he hadn't hit in 1985 either, so that wasn't a change. Tom Herr's numbers suffered from a 50 point drop in BA, and Mike LaValliere, though an improvement over Mike Heath (who he shared catching duties with until Heath was traded to Detroit in August), was no comparison to Darrell Porter who had half the catching duties in 1985. Ozzie Smith (.709, 98) had a 28 point drop in his slugging, but partially compensated with a 21 point rise in OBP (to a team-leading .376). Andy van Slyke (.795, 118) hit slightly better than he had the year before.

Only two of their reserves were of much use offensively: Jose Oquendo, who produced a .359 OBP in 158 PAs, and Mike Laga, who slugged .500 in 52 PAs. Unfortunately, Oquendo had no power (.341 SLG), and Laga didn't get on base (.308 OBP). None of the others could do better than Curt Ford's .682 OPS (88 OPS+), and most were well below it.

Pitching Notes: Allowed 611 runs (3rd out of 12), 9 pitchers (4 starters, 5 relievers) with ERA+ > 100.

Fortunately the pitching corps was able to partially stem the tide, impressive considering the problems it faced. Danny Cox missed time after he broke his leg jumping off a seawall, but still finished with a 2.90 ERA (127 ERA+) and 8 complete games. John Tudor was shut down in September with a tired shoulder, but in 217 innings he did throw, posted a 2.92 (127 ERA+). Bob Forsch led the team with 230 innings, and a 3.25 ERA (114). The innings total was the most for Forsch since 1982. Greg Mathews was called up partway through the season, and in 22 starts was basically league average (101 ERA+). None of them were overpowering, all striking out less than one batter every two innings, but none of them allowed more than 8.6 hits/9 innings, 2.7 BB/9, or more than 0.9 HRs/9. Tim Conroy was the strikeout pitcher of the rotation (6.2 K/9), but also the worst of the bunch by far (5.23 ERA, 71 ERA+, over 4 walks, 9 hits, and 1 HR/9).

The bullpen lost the primary closer of the previous year, Jeff Lahti, after only 2 innings, but Todd Worrell stepped in and did fairly well, saving 36 games (though he was tagged with the loss 10 times). Even as the supposed fireball closer, he struck out only 6.3 batters per 9 innings. The strikeout guy in the bullpen was actually Ken Dayley (7.7 K/9). It was lower than the previous year though, and combined with a rise in his WHIP, from 1.27 to 1.37, his ERA climbed to 3.26 (114). Rickey Horton had an excellent year doing whatever was required, starting 9 games (throwing 1 complete game), finishing 12 games (collecting 3 saves), and throwing over 100 innings (Worrell did this as well, tossing over 103 innings).

It's interesting their pitching staff was so effective at not allowing runs, considering they weren't overpowering. They struck out over 100 fewer batters than the team with the next fewest Ks. However, they walked the fewest batters, which probably helped, even though they allowed the fifth most home runs, suggesting a lot of those were solo shots. That's supported by the fact they allowed the 5th fewest hits. Opponents didn't make successful contact often, but when they did, they tended to hit it out of the park.

Defensive Notes: One thing that surprises me looking at the numbers is the Cardinals don't seem to be extraordinarily good defenders. I figured with so few strikeouts, that would be the key to their success at run prevention. Maybe it was, as every starter was at least 1 run above average, but I expected more high totals like Ozzie and Pendleton's. Ozzie was 16 runs above average at SS, Pendleton 18 at third. Andy van Slyke (in 600 innings) and Tito Landrum (in 400) were both +10 in RF. Some of the backups were below average (such as Oquendo at SS and second base, van Slyke in CF), but not by very much. I guess they add up, because when I total across all positions, they defense comes out +94, which would be worth 9 wins. Looks more impressive that way.

Other Notes: The team had a winning record from June through September, 62-51. It was just at the beginning and ends of the season they struggled (17-27 through the end of May, 0-4 in October). They even managed to outscore their opponents in August and September, in August by increasing their scoring (it's the only month they managed more than 110 runs), in September by limiting their opponents (96 runs allowed in 27 games). They were 4 games under .500 in both 1-run games (28-32), and blowouts (15-19).

They were a better hitting and pitching team at home, though they weren't that good of a hitting team at home (.678 OPS). It's interesting their best hitter OPS came in May, and their pitching OPS that month was average for them (worse than April and June, better than all the other months), yet they had their worst winning percentage (9-17). What's stranger, they did that while being outscored by just one run the entire month.

Final Thoughts: I don't have any particular memories of this team. It's honestly stretching it to include them as part of my time as a fan, as I was pretty young back then. Not that it matters, this team was far too good at defensive and pitching to be the worst. Of the 8 teams I'm considering, they have the best record, and their Pythagorean Record suggests that wasn't a fluke (compared to say, the 1994 team which was 4 games better than they ought to have been).

I do have a fondness for the concept of this team. The focus on pitching, defense, and most of all speed. I know the math says a base stealer needs to be successful at least 70% (and it may be 75%) of the time for it to be worthwhile, and so most teams are better off not running, but I love that aggressive style of play. Try and steal bases, try and stretch that double into a triple, put pressure on the other team to throw them out. Of course, when only one player on the team reaches double digits in home runs (van Slyke, 13) what other choice do they have? When the hits aren't falling (and with a team batting average of .236, they weren't), it's going to be rough. Still, there wasn't another team in the league quite like it, and I think that's pretty cool.