Season Over

The Cardinals had the second Wild Card spot in their hands with a week to go, then proceeded to crap it away by losing 5 of their last 6 games. To division rivals Milwaukee and Chicago no less. Well, the Cardinals weren't as good as that 24-6 August they had, so this was probably a good reminder. The young guys either ran out of gas or luck, or both.

Mikolas ended up just reaching 200 innings, with an ERA 37% above league average (and about .45 better than his FIP). He gave them 8 strong innings in the penultimate game to keep their hopes alive another few hours. Flaherty had a bit of a rough September, but was still easily second on the team in starts and innings, and first in strikeouts. Probably needs to get the walk rate down some, definitely try to get the home runs down a little (he gave up four more HRs than Mikolas in 50 fewer innings), but he looks like a solid front of the rotation guy going into next season.

Of course, we thought that about Luke Weaver going into this season, and he was pretty bad. He lost his rotation spot by the end of August, and the bullpen experience wasn't exactly great. His walk rate is about the same as Flaherty's, but his HR and K rates are both much worse, and he surrendered a lot more hits. The breaking pitch doesn't seem to have materialized, but his changeup wasn't as effective this year, either. I don't know where he stands going into next season. The same is true for Wainwright, who came back to make a few solid starts late in August when the rotation really needed them. His velocity mostly held up in the low '90s, and if that was something he could maintain going forward, he wouldn't be a terrible choice to bring back next year. But there's a difference between maintaining it for 4 starts, and 24 starts.

Carlos was kept to the bullpen after he came off the DL, making 15 relief appearances. He walked 11 batters in just over 18 innings, so he control issues were not resolved, and that made his appearances an adventure. Hopefully he gets that sorted out by next season. A trio of Mikolas-Martinez-Flaherty at the front of the rotation could be really good. Beyond that, John Gant and Austin Gomber were both up and down. Each one got better results than you'd expect for most of the season, although Gomber's luck turned late. Just too many hits and walks (walks were a problem for almost everyone besides Mikolas and a couple of the relievers). Wacha never did come back off the DL.

The bullpen pitched over its head in August, or else just got really lucky for how many baserunners they allowed. Then everything flipped in September and went downhill. Norris ran out of gas, which makes me wish even more they'd traded him at the deadline. Hicks, who had been improving as the season went on, seemed to lose his control entirely the last bit of the season. Considering he hadn't pitched above A ball before this year, and threw 77 innings, maybe he was just gassed. Brebbia was one of two relievers who didn't walk too many (Mayers being the other), and was easily the best reliever, but he missed some time with an injury, and Schildt didn't seem to necessarily trust him in big spots consistently. Mayers' ERA is three-quarters of a run worse than his FIP, not sure what happened there.

Brett Cecil was terrible, just completely useless. In less than 33 innings, walked 25 batters, allowed 5 HRs. Mikolas only walked 29 guys all season. Dakota Hudson had an almost even K/BB ratio (19/18). Chasen Shreve walked too many guys (9 in 14 innings) and allowed too many HRs (3). Which are the same problems he's had his entire career, so the Cardinals can't feign surprise. He's not good. Tyler Lyons and Matt Bowman never made it back onto the major league roster. Dominic Leone did, but the results never quite caught up to what his K and BB rates suggested. I think all those homers he allowed in April skewed his numbers too much. Daniel Poncedeleon shuffled between rotation and bullpen. At one point he was at 9 Ks and 9 BBs, but finished the season with 31 and 13, respectively, so maybe he found his footing, despite his irregular use patterns.

Molina played almost every day. He ended up with his second-best HR total of his career, and an OPS 3% better than league average. His average was 20 points below his career mark (.261 vs. .282), and sine he never walks, he OBP was a paltry .314, also 20 points below his career mark. When Molina sat, the team insisted on starting Francisco Pena, even when Carson Kelly is sitting right there. Did Kelly kill someone's dog or something? Francisco Pena is terrible. He had a .510 OPS (40 OPS+). He does not hit for average, or draw walks, or hit for power. He can't throw out baserunners (only one caught stealing in 15 attempts). He pitchers got tagged for 20 wild pitches, versus only 2 passed balls for him, which seems sketchy. He does not appear to be any good at pitch framing. Even by the low standards set by Molina's caddies, Pena is bad.

Matt Carpenter's hot streak ended partway through August. He had an OPS of .558 in September, with just one HR. He was very good in the middle of the season, and crap on both ends (the reverse of how Tommy Pham did, oddly). Still set a career high in HRs, plus 42 doubles, walked over 100 times, graded out above-average at third defensively, even went 4 of 5 stealing bases. He didn't end up leading the team in innings at any position for the second time in three years. Kolten Wong graded as outstanding at second defensively, and by year's end, had pulled his OPS+ up to 97. Only 6 of 11 stealing, so we'll have to wait and see if he finally puts it all together next year. he was still the 4th most-valuable position player on the team by bWAR (behind Carp, DeJong, and Bader).

DeJong's power didn't come all the way back after his hand injury, but he also graded as above-average defensively at shortstop, and slightly above-average offensively (102 OPS+). Jedd Gyorko's power wasn't there this year, with an Isolated Slugging of just 154, versus 200 last year and 252 in 2016. However, he walked a lost more often than he had, which pulled his OBP up a bit. It's still his weakest offensive season as a Cardinals by OPS+ (108 vs. 112 and 111), but it's not too far off. Combined with average defense, he came out as basically an average player.

Fowler did not make it back from his foot injury. Ozuna finally found his power in the last two months, hitting 10 of his 23 HRs over that span, with an OPS in the upper 800s. Basically what the team was hoping for when they traded for him. But he finished the season overall with an OPS+ of 106, or two percent worse than Gyorko. Most of the defensive stats say he was very good, even though he apparently has the weakest outfield arm in the league. Harrison Bader, meanwhile, graded out as excellent defensively, ran the bases well (15 of 18 stealing, among other things), and hit well enough. An OPS+ of 106 in fact, same as Ozuna, with a slightly higher Isolated Slugging, even.

As for the rest of the roster, Jose Martinez played less first base and more right field late in the season, as the Cardinals placed a greater emphasis on defense, something Jose is largely unfamiliar with. But in a limited sample of 335 innings, he graded out as average in right field, by one metric at least. They should still probably try to trade him to the AL this offseason. He was still the second-best hitter on the team after Carpenter, although the power wasn't there to the same extent as last year. Yairo Munoz somehow convinced the coaching staff he could play anywhere, which I guess is technically true in that he can stand there if you give him a glove. He just stinks at almost every position. He was, in extremely small samples, terrible in RF, CF, at SS and second base. He was average in LF, and above average at third, again in very small samples. He probably isn't as terrible as he looked everywhere, but I'm not sure he's good anywhere.

And he took most of Greg Garcia's playing time, even though Garcia is a superior infielder. But Munoz hit better, although some of that might be better batted ball luck. He certainly has more power, although that's not saying much. Power isn't Garcia's game, never has been. Tyler O'Neill couldn't seem to keep a consistent spot in the lineup, even though he was competing against two guys (Martinez and Munoz) he was much better defensively than, and he's a much better hitter than Munoz, although he has to work on the strikeout rate. He Ks like Pham did back in 2016 when his eyesight when south and he was trying to play while effectively blind.

The team picked up Matt Adams off the waivers from the Nats, and he had a couple of big hits, but that's about it. Patrick Wisdom got some playing time as a utility infielder, and showed some impressive power. 4 HRs in less than 60 PAs. Doubtful he'll maintain it as the league adjusts, but still nice to have while it lasts. Jose Adolis Garcia was used mostly as a late-inning defensive replacement for Martinez and Munoz, but will unfortunately probably be most remembered for falling down as he was rounding third trying to score in a game the Cardinals really needed, and ultimately lost. Hopefully he gets some time next year, and creates a few more positive memories.


I've seen a lot of comments about how much missing the playoffs hurt this year, compared to the previous two season. I don't really agree. I had given the season up for dead after the trade deadline. They were hovering around .500, all the trades made were building for the future things, with no immediate help acquired (unless you really believed in Chasen Shreve), and they were still playing Fowler every game. That they got hot for a month and climbed back in contention was a fun bonus, but I enjoyed just getting to see some of the young guys, even if they struggled.

The 2017 team was alternating between hot and cold, where they'd play well for 2-3 weeks, then stink for a similar amount of time. It was running in place, but at least you got sustained stretches of good play. And Tommy Pham was kicking all kinds of ass, which I thoroughly enjoyed.

Now the 2016 team, that was frustrating. They couldn't play well for more than 5 games at a time. They'd win two series, then lose two, on and on, all season. You could never feel like they'd found a rhythm. And they weren't good at much of anything. They were one of the worst baserunning teams in the league, and one of the worst defensive teams in the league. Which made their pitching staff, which was largely mediocre outside Carlos and Seung-hwan Oh, look even worse, because it kept forcing their pitchers to get 4 or 5 outs in an inning. They didn't hit for average, they didn't draw a ton of walks, but they did hit for power. They were second in doubles and first in homers in the NL, but home runs are about the worst thing you can be good at to hold my interest.

Add to that they were competing for the wild cards with San Francisco and the Mets. 60% of the Mets' roster was on the DL, and the Giants seemed to blow every close lead they had for the last three months of the season. Yet the Cardinals couldn't edge out either of them. That was frustrating, and felt like a missed opportunity. This year there were a bunch of good teams, and most of them were playing very well late in the season, and so it was always going to be tough. So it didn't bother me as much.

Forty Games To Go

Three-quarters of the MLB season is done, and the Cardinals are 66-56. They're nipping at the Brewers' heels, and the Cubs have at least one more team to keep in mind. Matheny was fired, and the bullpen overhauled, as multiple crappy relievers were released, demoted, or put on the DL.

Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha are still on the DL, and Carlos Martinez returned, only to immediately go back to being injured. Miles Mikolas continues to be the leader of the rotation, and Jack Flaherty has been a solid #2 starter, although his home run rate is a little high. John Gant has manage an ERA of about 3.75, with a FIP almost identical. He doesn't work deep into games, but he's usually solid while he's in there. Luke Weaver has been a disappointment, generally failing to work deep into games and with an ERA at 4.67. His FIP is a little better, but 4.13 still isn't any great shakes. Austin Gomber's been getting starts recently, and is getting good results, but walking way too many guys. That's going to bite him sooner or later. Daniel Poncedeleon made one start, and no-hit the Reds for 8 innings. Tyson Ross started last Sunday and did well, although it was against the Royals, so that barely counts as a Major League game.

The bullpen got a huge boost just by removing the 5 worst members at the same time. Holland released, Lyons waived (and unclaimed so back in AAA), Bowman still in AAA, Gregerson and Cecil on the DL (although Cecil is back). Norris is still mostly pitching well, and the Cards were winning by enough runs recently he was able to have several games off. Hicks is not striking guys out, and the walk rate is still top high, but he's not outperforming his FIP by as much as he was early in the season. Mayers is still here, being OK. John Brebbia's on the DL. Tyler Webb's been called up twice, thrown about 8 innings, hasn't given up a run so far. Chasen Shreve has been better than I figured he would be in 5 innings. Poncedeleon and Dakota Hudson round out the current bullpen. They're both walking too many guys, especially for how few they're striking out, but they've gotten away with it for the most part so far.

Yadier Molina is playing all the time. His defensive stats are down this year, but his OPS+ is 114. He shouldn't be batting second, but he's on pace for probably his third-best offensive season. He still needs a few days off. Although Francisco Pena's .514 OPS argues otherwise. And maybe Shildt figures all these young pitchers need Yadi's steady hand behind the plate.

Matt Carpenter's been on a blistering pace for the last three months. He's up to 33 HRs, which is over twice as many as anyone else on the team. His OPS was over 1.000 for a hot second, it's still .975. He's actually playing pretty good defense at third and first this year, which is nice. Kolten Wong has dragged his OPS up to almost league average while playing excellent defense. Shildt's even moved him up out of the 8th spot in the lineup. DeJong's numbers are pretty far down, he doesn't seem to have come back from the hand injury at full strength. Plus he was making a lot of errors there for awhile.

Greg Garcia's not having a very good year, and Shildt has turned to Jose Martinez as his typical first bat off the bench guy, whereas Matheny favored Garcia. It's a good call, Martinez is a much better hitter than Greg, and Greg has actual defensive versatility, as opposed to Martinez who may stand at different positions, but is awful at all of them. Yairo Munoz has hit well, but is on the DL. He may be the getting ready to take Garcia's job next year. I'd feel better about that if I'd seen any indication Munoz could play any position competently. Gyorko's dragged his offensive numbers up above league average lately, which is nice.

Dexter Fowler has continued to be terrible, yet the team insisted on playing him every game even after they traded Pham. Then Fowler got hurt, which may have been the second-biggest thing to boost the team's fortunes (after ditching Greg Holland). Tyler O'Neill keeps getting hurt every time he starts to earn some playing time. He's not walking, but he's hitting. Bader is playing ridiculously good defense, running the bases well, and hitting decently. I should be more excited about that, but I'm still bummed about Pham getting traded, I guess. I've been slow to warm to Bader. Marcell Ozuna is hitting basically the same as Wong, without playing spectacular defense. Ozuna hits the ball hard, but he hits it on the ground all the time. Shildt, when O'Neill was out, played Jose Martinez in right field and would then sub in Jose Adolis Garcia as a defensive replacement.

The Cardinals' schedule the rest of the way is slightly more home games than away. It is almost entirely against teams also in the playoff hunt. 6 games each against Pittsburgh and Milwaukee, 3 each against Colorado, the Cubs, Braves, and the Nationals. 7 against the Dodgers. On the one hand, it's a chance to make up ground in the wild card race, and bury some other teams. On the other, you're playing other good teams, so there's no guarantee they won't bury the Cards instead. But the team seems more energetic and happy. Guys have mentioned they don't fear getting benched if they have two bad games, Shildt seems to let the team run, but more judiciously. He pulls starters early, before things go too bad, and tries to take advantage of all the guys with starting experience in the 'pen. Guys who can throw multiple innings. Allegedly that's what they'll do with Carlos if he makes it back in time.

That Was Certainly A Trade Deadline

Not much of one from my perspective, but hell, let's see what deck chairs the Cardinals opted to re-arrange.

1) DFA Greg Holland and Tyler Lyons - Holland is about two months overdue on being kicked to the curb. If the Cardinals feel as though they aren't in contention, he's a major reason why. Probably cost them 4-5 games all by himself. Supposedly he thinks he'll get picked up by a contender, but what contending team is willing to risk torpedoing their season letting him pitch? You want someone to pitch in blowouts, just pick random drunks from the stands.

As for Lyons, he's been hurt a lot this year, and when he has pitched, all the batted balls are either finding holes in the defense or leaving the yard. It was a small sample size, and maybe it was just bad luck, but the Cardinals have plenty of other guys to try. No reason to keep using guys that can't get anything done.

2) Traded Sam Tuivailala - Tui went to Seattle for a minor league reliever named Seth Elledge. Tui had been one of the Cards' more frequently used relievers this year, but that owed more to how many other guys have been hurt or lousy this year. His ERA was about 3.70, his FIP barely under 4.00. He didn't strike many out, and probably walked too many considering that. He wasn't a bad reliever, but no one the team is likely to sorely miss.

Elledge was in High-A for the Mariners this year, ERA of 1.17 in 38.1 innings out of the 'pen. Allowing 3.5 BB/9, but only about 4 hits/9. That seems good. He's already thrown a scoreless innings for the Cards' AA team. If things go well, maybe he'll be in the big league bullpen by the end of next year. Hard to get excited about relief pitchers, though.

3) Traded Luke Voit - Voit went to the Yankees along with some international signing money the Cards couldn't use, and the Yanks sent back relievers Giovanny Gallegos and Chasen Shreve. I assume Voit might operate in a platoon with Greg Bird at first. Luke was kind of blocked here, with both Matt Carpenter and Jose Martinez playing first and being superior hitters (although Martinez gives most of that back on defense and baserunning). They have a couple of guys in AAA and AA that can also play first and were hitting about as well. So at least this should get Voit some more time in the majors. Good for him.

Shreve is in his 5th year in the majors, and has been worth a grand total of 2.1 WAR in five years. Not exactly a world-beater. He strikes out almost 11/9 IP, but walks 4.5. And those are basically his career averages, and his averages this season. He's allowed 8 HRs in 38 innings, which isn't that far above his career norm (1.9/9 vs. 1/6). His ERA is 4.26 this year, 3.71 career, but his FIPs are 4.98 and 4.76 respectively. Another underwhelming lefty reliever to throw on the pile.

Gallegos has thrown 10 innings in the majors this year, plus 20 last year. He's allowed 17 runs, and 5 HRs, in that span. On the plus side, he's struck out 32 and only walked 8, so he at least appears to have better control than Shreve. Or maybe he leaves too many pitches over the fat part of the plate. He's thrown 119 innings in AAA over the last 4 years, ERA in the low 2s. 166 Ks to 28 walks. So the control seems legit.

4) Traded Oscar Mercado - Mercado goes to Cleveland. Mercado was hitting .285/351/408 in AAA this year, playing at least an average CF, and had stolen 31 bases in 39 attempts. He was traded for a pair of minor league outfielders, Conner Capel and Jhon Torres. Capel seems a lot like Mercado, just younger and further from the majors. Torres might have big power, if he can actually make contact. Yay, more guys who strike out a lot!

The consensus seems to be the Cards just wanted to clear a 40-man roster spot, and with all the other outfielders on the major league and high minors rosters, Mercado was extraneous. That seems stupid to me. It's not as if Adolis Garcia or Arozarena have performed particularly well this year, while at the same level as Mercado. There's no certainty Tyler O'Neill will actually not swing at everything in the majors. And if you wanted to clear space, there are plenty of other guys taking up space.

I suppose I liked Mercado's all-around game. I like guys who at least approach having all five tools. Bulky sluggers don't interest me. Mark McGwire was the ur-example of those types and I didn't give a rat's ass about him. Because he was terrible at defense, and slower than a dead chicken being dragged across a yard by a weasel. One-trick ponys, fooey.

5) Traded Tommy Pham - Pham goes to Tampa for three minor leaguers. I can't recall their names at the moment, and don't particularly care.

I understand the move from a business aspect. The Cardinals have a lot of outfielders. One of the guys they got back in a minor leaguer, albeit only in AA. They want more playing time for guys like Bader and O'Neill. Sure, Pham has been the most productive of the disappointing Pham/Ozuna/Fowler trio. But no team is dumb enough to trade for Fowler's garbage ass, and they'd be selling low on Ozuna. Plus, it would probably look bad to trade away their big offseason acquisition after just half a season. Pham's still three years away from free agency, he's cheap (good for a broke-ass franchise like Tampa), and he was really good a year ago. Might turn out to be a bargain. And from the Cardinals' perspective, he's already 30, has a long injury history, the eyesight issue, and has beefed a bit with management in the offseason over his contract. I get all that.

I just don't care. I have no emotional investment in Fowler or Ozuna, except perhaps annoyance that they've played so badly this year. Pham was my favorite player on this team. I mentioned I like those players that can do it all, and when it was clicking for Tommy, he was a player like that. He seemed to always have the capacity to do something exciting. With his glove, his bat, his arm, on the bases. His recent struggles had really sapped a lot of my interest in watching, because I don't find a lot of the other players on the team potentially exciting. But I was hopeful he was turning around, and ready to get excited when he did. Plus, you never knew if he was going to hold up, so there was always a fear it was going to fall apart. And after all the setbacks, I wanted to see him succeed. Well, he's in Tampa now. Hopefully that works out for him. He'll join the list of former Cardinals whose numbers I'll try to follow as they go forward.

Coming into the deadline, I had a couple of lists of players I thought the Cards could move. First were the ones I thought they absolutely should trade:

Bud Norris (shithead, on an expiring contract, useless to a team not in contention)
Jose Martinez (disaster in the field, better off as some team's DH)
Jedd Gyorko (not bad, but not vital. Cheap contract, useful in a limited role)
Michael Wacha (not a bad starter at all, but the Cards could look to try the new wave of arms while he helps some playoff team)
Marcell Ozuna (they took a chance, it didn't work, shit happens)
Jordan Hicks (he's good, but he's a reliever, ultimately replaceable and highly variable, and he'll probably break down in the next two years)

Obviously several of these were pipe dreams. Wacha's injured, we already discussed why they wouldn't trade Ozuna, Gyorko hasn't played well enough to get much of anything in return. Beyond that was the guys I was OK with them trading if they got a good haul, that might be on the block:

Mile Mikolas (contract expires next year, again there's a lot of potential pitchers in the system)
Matt Carpenter (there must be a team that needs a guy who can lead off and play either corner)
Kolten Wong (I like his defense, but I'm not sure it's ever going to all come together here)

Mikolas and Carp might have brought something good back. But, they traded exactly none of those guys. They traded a reliever, a minor league first baseman, a minor league outfielder, and one of their starting outfielders. The most productive one, actually. In exchange, they got four relief pitchers, three minor league outfielders, and one minor league starting pitcher.

All of which suggests a team not trying to contend. But if you aren't trying to contend, and any team trotting the rotting carcass of Dexter Fowler out there every single fucking night is not trying to win, why the fuck is Bud Norris still here? You are not trying to make the playoffs, ergo you do not need a closer. Trade him.

Overall, a thoroughly underwhelming trade deadline.

Stumbling To The Midpoint

81 games into the season, the St. Louis Cardinals might be garbage. They're 42-39, 5.5 games behind the Brewers in the Central. There are 7 teams with better records, and the Nationals are also 42-39. The Cardinals have been mostly lousy for the last month. They lost four series in a row to, respectively, the Marlins, Padres, Cubs, and Phillies. Managed a split with the Brewers and won 2 of 3 from Cleveland. The Braves have dominated them the last two nights. Even John Mozeliak seems to be out of patience. I'd be a lot more excited about that if I thought Matheny would actually get fired.

Wainwright and Michael Wacha are both on the DL. Carlos Martinez hasn't really pitched well since he came back off the DL. Luke Weaver is scuffling, with an ERA over 5 and a FIP over 4. Alex Reyes came back and made one start, then left because he tore a tendon nearly off the bone. And he had reported pain or discomfort after his last rehab start, which the team apparently ignored. Fantastic!  Miles Mikolas has continued to pitch mostly well, and Jack Flaherty is doing OK, aside from some issues with home runs.

Bud Norris has been mostly good, and Jordan Hicks has stopped walking people and started striking them out instead. Brebbia and Tuivailala have been OK. Greg Holland unfortunately came back from his injury stint, but hasn't been awful. Mike Mayers has been effective in largely a mop-up role. Brett Cecil is back, and not pitching horribly, but not pitching well, either. Austin Gomber, despite having been a starter his entire minor league career, has somehow become Matheny's favorite lefty reliever. Lack of other options I guess. Cecil's been questionable, Lyons is hurt, so is Ryan Sherriff. But Matheny has pitched him either three games in a row, or three in four days on multiple occasions. That doesn't seem like a smart move to make with someone used to a reliever's life, let alone someone used to pitching every five games.

Molina came back from the DL and is hitting pretty well. Which is good, because neither Francisco Pena or Carson Kelly were doing shit with the bat while Yadi was out. Jose Martinez is hitting well while still butchering first base. Kolten Wong, in contrast, is playing spectacular defense, somehow, but not hitting for shit. Matt Carpenter's bat has come alive, or the hits are falling now, and he's holding his own at third.

Paul DeJong was hitting until he was injured. He may not be back for a while yet. In his place, they've been starting Yairo Munoz a lot, rather than Greg Garcia, which seems stupid. Their OPSes are close, Munoz at .704 and Garcia at .696, but I'd trust Garcia's more OBP-driven approach over Munoz' hackfest. Also, I'd trust Garcia's below-average defense over Munoz', but I don't believe defense factors into Matheny's thinking often. Jedd Gyorko has slumped badly after a hot start to the season.

In the outfield, Dexter Fowler has continued to look useless. His OPS is almost as bad as Pena's, and he's playing abysmal defense. Which has meant more playing time for Harrison Bader, who has responded by playing excellent defense, running the bases pretty well, doing just enough with the bat. If you restrict him to facing mostly LHP, he'll probably be OK. In the good news front, Marcell Ozuna's bat, like Carpenter's, has come alive. He's still only slightly above leauge-average by OPS, but that's better than where he was 40 games ago. Unfortunately, Tommy Pham has been mired in a horrendous slump for six weeks and counting. His OPS+ is down to 99, his defense seems to be slipping. He isn't striking much more than before, but he's not drawing walks, and he keeps chopping everything into the ground.

And apparently I put a lot of my emotional investment with regards to this team into Pham. As he's gone into the tank, my interest has nosedived. I turned on a game this week, watched Carp get a leadoff double, only to see Tommy fail to even advance the runner by grounding out to third, got depressed, and turned the game off.

There just aren't a lot of guys I considered exciting on this team. Flaherty and Mikolas are good starters, but not in a spectacular way so far. Weaver and Carlos are struggling, and I haven't bought into Wacha since his arm problems first cropped up. Relief pitchers are whatever; I'm not getting excited about some guy that comes in and throws hard for one inning. Whoop-de-do. Yadi's resilience is impressive, but not spectacular. Carp's a nice player, but walking isn't exciting. I was hoping for a repeat of last season from Pham, where he did everything. That was a lot of fun.

Checking In At The Quarter Mark

41 games in, the Cardinals are 23-18, close to the record their run differential says they should have (22-18). The record is mostly bolstered by kicking the shit out of the Reds (7-0), and now roughly half the roster is on the DL, so they're probably fucked. Carlos Martinez, Wainwright, Bowman, Lyons, Leone, Gregerson, Molina, Carson Kelly, Paul DeJong. Especially since the NL Central, other than the Reds, is actually good.

Rotation: Carlos has mostly been good, outside of the season opener, and his last start. Second on the team in innings, first in strikeouts, first in ERA. He has been lucky, judging by the large gap between his ERA (1.62) and FIP (3.38). He's done it to himself, walking 4 batters per 9 innings, along with 9 HBP. Hopefully he gets that under control when he gets off the DL, since he probably won't keep giving up 1 HR every 50 innings like he has so far.

Weaver's had ups and downs. Started well, had a rough patch of 4 starts, but had a good effort in a loss last night. His ERA (4.37) is over a run higher than his FIP (3.33). He's under five and a third innings a start, which isn't spectacular. Wacha's been solid, although a little lucky. He's walking too many guys (3.9/9 IP). Miles Mikolas has been the breakout star, despite striking no one, by not walking people. Basically, he's being the best version of Mike Leake. Of course, Leake was the best version of himself for about 5 weeks last season, and that didn't end well, but maybe this will go better. Given the mounting injuries, the Cardinals have to hope it does.

Of the replacements, Flaherty's made three starts, none where he made it through the sixth, but he's been mostly effective. He has a sub-3 ERA, and the same FIP as Luke Weaver. Their numbers are fairly similar. Same K rate, BB rate, HR rate. Weaver's hit rate is actually slightly lower. John Gant made one start, along with three relief appearances. It wasn't bad, but nothing to write home about.

Bullpen: The Cards have used 13 relief pitchers already, which seems like a lot for 41 games. Bud Norris has been excellent, which is unfortunate, since he's kind of a tool. Rather not be stuck rooting for this guy. He's striking out over 12/9, and walking one batter every 7 innings. His ERA is 2.14, and that's actually worse than his FIP (1.57). Jordan Hicks, who had never pitched above A ball before this season is second in innings among the relievers. Which would be great, if he hadn't walked 14 guys and only struck out 8 across those 19 innings. Can't imagine he'll keep getting away with that. Matt Bowman has an ERA near 6, and hasn't been unlucky. He's walking a batter every other innings, and allowing 11 hits per 9 innings.

Leone would be doing great if he hadn't given up those two HRs back to back to blow that game against Milwaukee. Also if he wasn't hurt. Other than those problems, he's fine. Lyons is suffering from home run and walk trouble. Holland. . . is just bad. Great use of $14 million there, Cardinals. Maybe you should have given it to Tommy Pham instead, actually get some bang for your buck. Ryan Sherriff and Luke Gregerson have both struggled, with home runs and walks. I'm detecting a theme. Perhaps walking batters and surrendering homers is bad for a pitcher.

Brebbia's mostly been good, outside of a couple of scuffles lately. Tuivailala's been better since he took some time on the DL to recover from a knee issue. Mayers is getting by, somehow. Brett Cecil's been good, if he could stay on the field. He's only faced 9 batters so far this year.

Infield: Molina was hitting for power before taking a foul ball to the nuts, but his OBP was still only .292. The Cardinals could use an above league-average hitter, though. Of his two back-ups, Kelly was just 2-for-18 before injuring his hamstring. Francisco Pena is 8-for-34, all 8 are singles. Pena is not demonstrating much ability to drive the ball with authority.

Jose Martinez is getting all the starts at first base, where he is not very good. He's been so bad, it's basically canceling out any value from his hitting. Considering his OPS+ is 133, with 11 doubles and 4 HRs already, that really says something about how putrid his defense is. Wong is struggling, with a sub-600 OPS, but playing excellent defense at second. So, Bizarro Jose Martinez. Matt Carpenter has gotten most of the innings at third so far, where his defense has been adequate, but he's hitting as well as Wong. Supposedly he's hitting the ball hard, but it's being caught. Of course, they're using the shift against him 90% of the time, and he's pulling the ball right into it, soooooo. . .

DeJong was hitting very well, tied with Pham for team lead in HRs, and actually walking some. His walk rate is around 9%, which is solid. He's playing solid defense at shortstop as well. Baseball-Reference says he's been the Cardinals' most valuable position player. I have my doubts about that, but he's been valuable no doubt. Jedd Gyorko's been getting regular playing time since he came off the DL. It's only 74 PAs, but he has a .930 OPS. The concern is that Matheny will play him at SS with DeJong out. Gyorko is passable at second, and was very good at third last season, but he's not got the range for shortstop.

But there's a lack of options. Greg Garcia is passable defensively at SS, maybe average if you're lucky. And he's actually hitting for a surprising amount of power this season. His career ISO, including this season, was 101. This year, it's 180. Probably won't last if he gets more at-bats, but it's nice to have while it lasts. While the injury to DeJong, they've brought Yairo Munoz back up. He looked great in Spring Training, but completely overmatched once the real games began. Like Kelly, he was 2-for-18, but with 11 Ks in 20 PAs. He'd only struck out 18 times in 100 PAs in AAA, but also only walked 5 times. So he probably hasn't rediscovered plate discipline. Put him together with Garcia, and they'd probably have an acceptable player.

Outfield: Marcell Ozuna is hitting basically as well as Carpenter and Wong, meaning terribly. He's not walking much, and he's not driving the ball. Swinging at basically everything. Fowler, remarkably, is hitting worse than all of them. Like Carpenter, he's drawing enough walks to prop his OBP to almost bearable levels. He just can't get any flippin' hits, and his defense is grading out as horrible, even after being moved out of centerfield. Harrison bader has been getting more playing time as a result, and so far is rating as an excellent fielder, while being an above-average hitter. Like Garcia, that probably won't last with increased playing time (Bader has never shown much knack for hitting righthanded pitching). Tyler O'Neill is coming back up. Maybe he can get a hit this time.

Tommy Pham is basically propping up the outfield. He's batting leadoff now, has scored almost 10 more runs than anyone else on the team, second on the team in batting average to Jose Martinez. Tied with DeJong for lead in HRs, first in stolen bases, but also first in times caught stealing. OBP of .412, OPS+ of 161.

It's ahrd to see how this team is going to keep it's head above water with all the injuries. Granting that most of the guys getting hurt in the bullpen weren't doing great, and Wainwright is done. He was on the DL for weeks, and when they brought him back, his elbow flared up before he even finished his warm-up throws. Flaherty and Gant would be hard-pressed to be worse, and Alex Reyes may be on the horizon.

But the Cardinals have so many hitters struggling, and so few doing well, that losing two of the above-average hitters they did have - Molina and DeJong - is a blow they probably can't afford. We'll see.

An Offseason Check-In

Somehow I thought for sure I'd typed up a post about the St. Louis Cardinals' offseason back in December. I did type up one during a lull at work, but I guess I never posted it. Anyway, in what's been a fairly quiet offseason overall, the Cardinals have been one of the more active teams. Whether it's been enough to close the gap on the Cubs is questionable, and now the Brewers have upgraded their outfield quite a bit with Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. But let's take a look at where the Cards stand at this point.

Rotation: There are only two moves of note here. Lance Lynn was offered a one-year contract, which he turned down, understandably. He's yet to receive a contract from anyone else, though. And the Cardinals signed Miles Mikolas to a two-year contract. Mikolas spent the last three seasons in Japan, where he was quite effective: 62 starts, 424 innings, 2.18 ERA, 8 K/9, 1.5 BB/9. Prior to that, he'd spent parts of three seasons with the Phillies and Rangers, where things didn't go so well: 37 appearances, 10 starts, 91 innings, 5.32 ERA, 4.81 FIP, 6 K/9, 2.8 BB/9. His home run rate in Japan was also half of what it was in the States.

So the question is whether he figured something out in Japan that will translate to greater success here, or if he's a AAAA player, good enough to succeed there, but not here. If he does work out, it'll probably be as a poor man's Mike Leake. As you may recall, I was not a fan of the Mike Leake signing, but that was because of the years on the contract and the no-trade clause. I expected that he'd block the advancement of some young starter with more potential, but it turned out to be much easier to trade him than I anticipated. In Mikolas' case, his contract is short enough, and for few enough dollars the team shouldn't have any trouble setting him aside if he flops. If he succeeds, great. There are enough question marks about the remainder of the rotation that Mikolas doing well would be a pleasant outcome.

Because as it stands, the other starters are Carlos Martinez, Michael Wacha, Adam Wainwright, and Luke Weaver. I'm probably always going to be concerned about Wacha's shoulder. Wainwright may be done, and we've yet to see if Weaver can be a successful major league starter for a whole season. He threw 138 innings across AAA and the majors last year, and did fine, but they're going to need it for a whole year at the big leagues this year. The Cardinals don't have anyone else who'll be ready before midseason. Alex Reyes probably needs to be brought back slow, let him get his form back in AAA. Jack Flaherty needs more time at AAA as well, ditto guys like Jordan Hicks or Dakota Hudson. I guess they could use John Gant, though he hardly inspires confidence.

I don't want the Cardinals to go sign another mid-rotation guy, because those prospects are close, and can probably fill the gaps soon. It's just that even in the best-case scenario, there's going to be a brief period where the available depth is lacking. If the Cards wanted to grab a frontline guy to pair with Martinez, say Yu Darvish or Chris Archer, I'd be OK with that, depending on the dollars or prospect cost. I was pretty excited about that five-minute rumor the Diamondbacks were shopping Grienke.

Bullpen: This is where the Cardinals have overhauled things the most. They'd already released Broxton and Siegrist during the season, and sent Socolovich back to AAA. This offseason, they've let the injured Trevor Rosenthal walk, and didn't bother to offer contracts to Zach Duke or Seung-hwan Oh. Instead they signed Luke Gregerson to a three-year deal at $5 million per season. Gregerson's coming off a rough year in Houston, mostly due to his home run rate more than doubling from his career numbers. It seems as though four or 5 of the 13 HRs he gave up were cheap ones, owing to pitching in the funhouse mirror version of a stadium the Astros call home. So there's reason to hope he'll rebound. His K and BB rates really didn't change much from the previous year.

Not long ago, they traded Randal Grichuk to the Blue Jays for Dominic Leone and prospect Connor Greene. Greene has a big arm, but his control is mostly poor, and his mechanics are iffy. He's basically another version of Sandy Alcantara, who they traded to the Marlins. Leone is coming off an excellent season in Toronto, 70 innings with a 2.56 ERA and 2.91 FIP. 10.4 K/9 and only 2.8 BB/9. Slightly concerning is that his 2015 and 2016 were terrible: 42 innings total, 36 runs allowed, 32 Ks, 21 BB, 9 HRs! But his 2014 was good, if not on the same level as his 2017. Still, two good years, two horrendous years. I don't know what happened in the bad years, if he was hurt or what. Hopefully he doesn't follow fellow ex-Jay Brett Cecil's example and blow a bunch of leads.

As it stands now, the bullpen has Leone, Cecil, Gregerson (who was named closer, for what that's worth), Tyler Lyons, whatever is left of Matt Bowman's arm, and Sam Tuivalala. Which, if the Cardinals didn't employ a dipshit as manager, would leave one spot open for John Brebbia, Ryan Sheriff, maybe Alex Reyes if they want to try that (they should not try that). But Matheny is apparently insistent he needs 8 relievers, even though he never uses more than 3 at any given time. He picks three guys he trusts, and runs them into the ground. So why have five guys sitting around waiting for their one chance every 10 games to pitch?

Infield: Molina says he's going to retire after his contract runs out in 2020. I'll believe that when I see it. Still, it may be enough time to reach 2,000 hits. Carson Kelly hasn't been included in any trade for Chris Archer - yet. So he's probably the backup again. Matheny isn't even pretending they'll get him regular playing time, saying he'll start whoever he thinks gives them the best chance to win that day. So, another 140 starts for Yadi, then. Again, if the Cardinals did not employ a dipshit for a manager, they'd give Kelly at least one of the starters to be the personal catcher. Mikolas maybe, or Weaver. Or both. Reverse the Ozzie/Royce Clayton arrangement, with the veteran getting two-thirds of the starts. I mean, at some point, someone other than Yadier Molina is going to have be to be catcher.

Matt Carpenter's still set up to play first, and is to be trying to be a smarter baserunner by getting suggestions on which other players he should be emulating in approach. And he may not be batting leadoff next year. Kolten Wong is still here, and we're still hoping he'll put all his skills together in the same season for once. Jedd Gyorko has not been traded as part of a deal for Josh Donaldson or Manny Machado - yet. Paul DeJong is still the projected shortstop, we'll see if he can improve his plate discipline and maintain his average defense. The Cards traded Aledmys Diaz to the Blue Jays (separately of the Grichuk trade) for a minor league outfielder named J.B. Woodward. So the fallback is, Greg Garcia? Maybe Breyvic Valera, who is still on the 40-man roster.

Outfield: The Cardinals traded for Marcell Ozuna from the Marlins, in exchange for four minor leaguers: Magneruis Sierra, Zac Gallen, Alcantara, and Daniel Castano. Ozuna's coming off the best season of his career, having been worth over 5.5 WAR. He provided most of that value with the bat, crushing 37 HRs and posting a 145 OPS+. I would expect he'll bat 4th, behind (in some order) Carpenter/Tommy Pham/Dexter Fowler. Given the skill those three have at getting on-base, he should have plenty of chances to drive in runs. Although if Molina continues to bat 5th, they may just pitch around him.

Past that, Pham is apparently going to be starting centerfielder, with Fowler moving to right, I think. Ozuna's at least an average corner outfielder, Fowler should probably be above-average in a corner, and Pham should be at least average in CF, possibly better, if his eyesight holds up. Pham and Ozuna are a couple of the big question marks for the season. They project as the two best position players, but are only being projected for 3 and 3.5 WAR, respectively. Of course, Pham was worth 6 WAR last year, and Ozuna 5.5. If the projections are right, they're good, but a ways behind the best players on the Cubs (Bryant and Rizzo). If they match last year's numbers, much of the projected gap between the Cards and the Cubs vanishes.

We already mentioned Grichuk being traded. Prior to that, they traded Stephen Piscotty to the Athletics for two prospects, Yairo Munoz and Max Schrock. Schrock's a second baseman very good at making contact, but with not much power so far. Munoz has some power, and some speed, but strikes out a lot and has questionable plate discipline. He's been playing shortstop in the minors, but is probably more of a third baseman or utility infielder.

If they're going to have an 8-man bullpen, then they only have a 4-man bench. One of them is Kelly, one is Garcia. Jose Martinez makes three. I don't know who the fourth is, given the trades of so many of the outfield crew. Fowler could cover CF if Pham needs a day off, or they could put Harrison Bader on the roster. He'd probably benefit from getting regular at-bats in AAA, though. Between the versatility of Garcia, Gyorko, and Carpenter, they can cover all the infield spots. Valera might provide a little more versatility. Luke Voit would be a possible power bat. Of course, if Mozeliak tells Matheny to just live with the 7-man bullpen, you could have two of those guys, but I should probably resign myself to that not happening.

I think they've improved overall, though not by as much as people would like. It's hard to tell, because they were supposedly, by run differential and neutral sequencing, a much better team than their record suggested. If that evens out this year, they might be better by quite a bit. Or it might not turn around and they'll flail hopelessly behind the Cubs and possibly the Brewers again. I prefer the Weaver/Mikolas pair to Leake/Lynn, but I'm hard pressed to say it's an upgrade. Who knows with the bullpen. Could be great, could be a disaster. Jhonny Peralta and Matt Adams aren't around to steal at-bats from better players, but we don't know if DeJong can repeat his success. Ditto with Pham and Ozuna, and Jose Martinez. There are just a lot of question marks, given the level of turnover in the last year.

Boredom Versus Disaster

The St. Louis Cardinals still haven't accomplished much this offseason. Lance Lynn rejected the qualifying offer, surprising no one. They tendered contracts to Wacha, Lyons, and Grichuk. They've made an offer to the Marlins to acquire Giancarlo Stanton, and the Marlins like it, but Stanton has little interest in playing in St. Louis, and he has a no-trade clause. The Giants are also in the mix, though there are of course rumors Stanton is hoping the Dodgers jump in. The Dodgers, thus far, seem reluctant to take on the kind of salary the Marlins would want them to.

I assume the Marlins will break first, since the new ownership apparently really wants out from under Stanton's contract. That won't mean a thing if the Dodgers aren't interested, though.

The Cards added 4 players to the 40-man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft: Tyler O'Neil, Oscar Mercado, Derian Gonzalez, and Austin Gomber. Which left one open spot, until they traded Aledmys Diaz to the Blue Jays for another minor league outfielder. Because they don't have enough of those. They could open up some more spots on the 40-man by removing dead weight like Mike Mayers, or OK but not essential types like Breyvic Valera.

As for Arizona, they lost to the Rams again last weekend, and fell to 5-7. They've been outscored by about 100 points, and are starting Blaine Gabbert. Their lead rusher is Adrian Peterson, still with less than 500 yards. None of their running backs average even four yards per carry. Larry Fitzgerald is the only one catching any passes. Nelson and Jaron Brown combined have fewer catches and yards than Fitzgerald. Whether that's because they're bad (probably) or because none of the Cardinals QBs are any good throwing downfield (also true), or because the O-line is too shitty for the QBs to even try throwing downfield (always true), the fact is. . . well, everything is bad.

A Couple of Wounded Birds

I haven't been paying a ton of attention to the NFL this year. Enough to know Arizona is probably bad. They're 2-2, but both wins came over bad teams, and both required overtime to do it. The offense is the culprit, because they can't manage anything. The team is averaging 2.7 yards per carry. Palmer's already been sacked 17 times, and thrown 5 INTs. David Johnson hurt his wrist three quarters into the season, and probably won't play before Thanksgiving, if at all.

My feeling is the defense gets worn out. The offense can't stay on the field, or Palmer turns the ball over, and the defense is left holding the bag. Sounds a lot like 2010, 2012, any number of other years. The good news is, the Niners still aren't good, and Seattle can't protect Russell Wilson. The bad news is, the Rams made a tremendous leap forward by replacing Tom Selleck Mustache Double Jeff Fisher with a coach with an actual functioning brain. All 7 Rams' fans are thrilled.

On the baseball side, the Cardinals fucked around and lost a bunch of games the last week of the season, ensuring they would not make the playoffs. There's a segment of the fanbase that insists the team was a good, just unlucky, and there's no reason to tear the team down or panic. Which I suppose I can understand, but it's hard to believe when you watch them lose game after game from bullpen meltdowns, defensive incompetence and the ever popular baserunning idiocy.

I'm not sure what the path forward is. Lot of people stumping for Giancarlo Stanton. I guess it would depend on what the Cardinals have to give up, and how much money the Marlins are willing to eat. There's no way the Cards should take on the whole contract and send over much of consequence. Stanton's teammate Christian Yelich is another possibility, a much cheaper one, but not as likely to crush 50 HRs, if that's a thing that matters.

Is isn't so much that they have a glaring weakness - with the depth in their farm system they have enough people to try that someone will work out - but they can still stand to upgrade somewhere. The Team of Average Guys has its limitations.

A Trade Is Worth Discussing

The Cardinals traded Mike Leake to the Mariners last week. The team is going to cover $17 million of Leake's remaining contract, leaving the Mariners paying $38 million over 3 years.

The Cardinals also sent some money towards international signings, and received minor league shortstop Rayder Asciano, who is a 21-year old in A ball. Allegedly a defensive whiz, he can't hit, at all. I saw him described elsewhere as, if he could learn to hit even a little, he might be able to be Brendan Ryan. Which has value, but is hardly encouraging that he he'll have to improve as a hitter just reach Boog's level.

There are some rumblings the team wanted Leake more on-board with their training programs or something, that they weren't pleased with how he was handling his conditioning or, his recovery from that bout of shingles last year, something. I wouldn't think that would be why they traded him, but who knows.

I was never that enthused about the Leake signing. It made a certain amount of sense as a hedge against injuries, in that you can pretty much count on Leake to make 30 starts and throw around 180 innings, and be at least an average pitcher in doing so. And there really aren't that many guys who can put up that level of performance for that many innings these days. Still, if things had gone well with the 2016 rotation, Leake is your #5 starter. Allocating $15 million dollars to that seems excessive. In the likely event that things don't go well - like Jaime Garcia, Michael Wacha, and Adam Wainwright all struggle - and Leake becomes your 2nd best starter, well, how good are you then, really?

The Cardinals have done a decent job of constructing a team with a solid floor, but limited upside. This bunch would be hard pressed to ever truly crater, they have too many solid players - like Mike Leake - for that. But they weren't likely leap to the top of the standings, either. The difference makers were lacking. What seems to be happening now is the front office decided it's time to see if any of their young pitching prospects can be those difference makers. Wainwright's on the DL, give Luke Weaver another chance to shine. Mike Leake is out the door, call up Jack Flaherty.

And it isn't as though Leake has been pitching well recently. His ERA with the Cards this year is 4.21. His Fielding Independent ERA is 4.22. In his first 10 starts, he had 3 with a Game Score better than 70, and none worse than a 54, which was a 7 inning, 4 run start against the Dodgers. He went at least 6 innings in every start, and 7 or more in 6 of the 10. In the 16 starts he made for StL after that, he has one with a Game Score better than 70, and only two others above 60. He made it 7 or more innings 3 times, versus 4 starts where he didn't make it through the 5th. He wasn't ever going to maintain that sub-2.00 ERA he had for the first 6 weeks, but he's cratered worse than the team could really afford, given Wainwright's problems and the bullpen's inconsistency.

Supposedly the guys in the clubhouse weren't happy about the trade, which is understandable, but I can't say I really care. If they'd played better, not blown so many games through defensive incompetence, baserunning nicompoopery, or bullpen meltdowns, maybe Leake wouldn't have been traded. Hell, the day of the trade, they lost a game to Milwaukee in large because they made three errprs and gifted the Brewers with several runs. Carlos Martinez fielded a ball then airmailed the throw for the second start in a row. Matt Carpenter let a ball go through his legs like a damn 5-year old in t-ball. They've been making fuckups like that all year, for the last two years, really. At a certain point, when you keep repeating the same mistakes, you can't blame anyone but yourself when they keep biting you in the ass.

Anyway, it's been a weird year with this team. It feels as though there's been a lot of roster upheaval, but not in the traditional sense of trading guys to get guys. They have done that, first with Matt Adams, now with Mike Leake, but neither of the players they added are anywhere near the majors. Nor are either of them likely to ever get here, frankly. Tyler O'Neill, who was received in exchange for Marco Gonzales, is the trade return most likely to actually reach the majors. But they DFA'ed Socolovich, Siegrist, and Fryer. They released Broxton and Peralta. That's 7 of the 25 guys from the Opening Day roster. None of them what I'd call critical pieces, to be sure, but it feels like a lot of turnover. An attempt to clear out redundant pieces, I guess, figure out what's worth keeping as foundational pieces.

Reaching The Three-Quarter Mark

By virtue of an 8-game winning streak, the Cardinals dragged themselves back over .500 for the first time in two months, and have managed to stay there so far, sitting at 63-59. AS the Brewers have fallen back to Earth, and the Cubs have still not taken off, the Cards sit 1.5 games back in the division. The D'Backs and Rockies have also fallen off their earlier paces, so the Cardinals are only ~4 games out of a wild card.

The team did nothing at the trade deadline. The offense is doing much of the heavy lifting lately, while the rotation struggles and the bullpen tries its damnedest to blow every single lead. Three nights ago, they took a 2-run lead into the 9th in Boston, and despite Matheny trying three relievers, blew it. Last night, they were up 11-3 after 7 innings, and won 11-10.

The rotations hasn't been spectacular lately. Wacha still has the best FIP on the team at 3.52, and Martinez is the only other starter below 4.00. Martinez has made 9 starts since the beginning of July, and worked into the 7th just three times. He has two starts with a Game Score above 60 in that time, after 8 such starts in his first 16. Leake's ERA has backslid to 3.88, close to his FIP of 4.02. He's not walking guys, or allowing many homers, he just has to rely on balls in play finding glove too much. It's always going to limit him. Lynn has the best ERA in the rotation, 3.05, but his FIP is 4.78. he and Martinez are equal in HRs, and Lynn has walked one more batter, despite throwing 17 fewer innings. Still, he's been doing this all season, and for the previous two years he pitched before this, so maybe it's something he can maintain. Seems like a precarious tightrope to walk.

As stated, Wacha has the lowest FIP in the rotation, but with roughly the same ERA as Leake. He's also thrown 22 fewer innings than Leake or Lynn. Wacha has gone past 6 innings twice all season, and his complete game against the Mets is the only time he finished the 7th. He's had some damn good 6 inning starts - one each against the Nationals and D'Backs in July - but it'd be nice if he could go further into games occasionally. Some of that is undoubtedly the team being cautious with his shoulder, but there are also several of those starts where his pitch count is in the mid-90s or higher by the end of the 6th. He's not as efficient as you'd hope. Then there's Wainwright, with an ERA over 5, but a FIP far below it. It's hard to buy that he's having bad luck, though. He went on the DL briefly, came back, and made a few starts where he can't throw harder than 85. Now he's back on the DL, thankfully. Luke Weaver got to make the starts in Adam's place, and did OK. Presumably he'll resume that role now.

The bullpen is garbage, absolute garbage. There's no telling who can be relied on at any given time. Oh seems to be transitioning to becoming a ROOGY, but still can't consistently use his slider and inspires zero confidence. Cecil is entirely untrustworthy in any situation where the team isn't already losing. Bowman leads the league in appearances, but is averaging less than an inning per appearance. Rosenthal's ERA is over a run above his FIP, probably because he groups his walks and homers by melting down entirely. Now he's on the DL, along with Siegrist who has blessedly been there most of the month. Zach Duke's thrown 7 innings since returning from Tommy John surgery, and is walking too many guys. He came in with the bases loaded last night, and promptly walked a run home. Which I'm positive I saw him do last year, too.

Matheny's been desperate enough to throw John Brebbia into the 9th innings of close games. It didn't work. Brebbia's ERA is as far below his FIP, as Rosenthal's is above. He doesn't walk anyone, but the home runs are starting to crop up. Tyler Lyons is probably the best option they have right now, based on both ERA and FIP. Seems able to handle most any situation. Tuivailala is back up, he's been fairly useful this year. They called Mike Mayers up a few days ago, and he shit the bed - again! - last night against the Pirates. At this point, he's firmly in the Ryan Lindley category for me, a player so awful and useless that upon seeing him in a game, the only reasonable conclusion is the team hates its fans and wants them to be miserable. But I guess the team doesn't hate us that much because they sent him back to AAA half an hour after the game ended and brought us Josh Lucas, the AAA closer.

It's a little frustrating they won't bring up some of the other useful relievers from Memphis and jettison the dead weight in the 'pen, but we can always hope for that.

On the position player side of things, the team is up to 7th in runs scored, 4th in doubles, just 11th in home runs and 9th in stolen bases. They're third in OBP, but just 9th in slugging. They have no one with 20 HRs, but 7 guys between 14 and 19.

Molina got angry at the one-two punch of Matheny suggesting he might be tired, and the team DFAing Eric Fryer and calling up Carson Kelly. Unfortunately, Mozeliak forgot Molina decides when he does and doesn't play, and so Kelly is sitting on the bench. In the month he's been up, Kelly has collected 25 PAs. Molina's OBP is almost .310, but his ISO is over 150, which is the best he's managed outside those peak years of 2011-2013. He's also second in stolen bases on the team, with 8.

Among the infielders, Carpenter still can't keep his batting average above .250, but he has a .384 OBP, good for third on the team, and his ISO is about 200. That's down from the last couple of years, as he seems to be reverting to Doubles Machine Matt Carpenter (he has 28 of those this year, against 16 HRs). I don't really mind that, he's still being productive. Wong is still trying to get on track with all these brief stops on the DL, but he has an .845 OPS at the moment, in 300 PAs. I'm surprised he's not stealing more bases, given his .398 OBP and lack of extra-base hits, the opportunities are clearly there.

Aledmys Diaz is still in AAA, with most of the SS playing time going to Paul DeJong. DeJong leads the team in HRs, and has an ISO of 278. His K rate has even dropped, from 30.8% to 30.4%! And his walk rate is over 3.5%, my goodness. I'm not sure how long he can keep hitting .300 like this; using Grichuk as a guide suggests possibly for as long as a season, but probably not over the long haul Still, it's nice to have while it's there, and DeJong has played a close to average SS, which is a pleasant surprise. Over at third, Gyorko's quieted down considerably the last couple months. His OPS is down under .800, barely, but combined with his solid defense at third, he's still the Cardinals' second most valuable player this year.

In the outfield, Piscotty continued to struggle, has been part of a lot of trade rumors, and is currently on the DL. Fowler might finally be healthy, has his OBP over .360, and his ISO around 230. His defense in CF still isn't very good, and it should probably be one of a couple other players starting in that spot, but he's the veteran guy on the big contract, so that ain't happenin'. Tommy Pham is the most valuable player on the team this year, with an OBP over .400, and an ISO of about 200. He has 15 doubles, 16 HRs (and an ongoing beef with Statcast, which is outstanding), and 16 SBs. And he gives great, angry, post-game interviews. I hope he's at least enjoying himself, it's hard to tell sometimes.

As for the remaining bench guys, Grichuk is back up and hitting fairly well. His OPS is almost league average now. But he's the other side of the coin for DeJong. DeJong has a .333 OBP because he's hitting .305. Grichuk is hitting .244, and that's why his OBP is .292, despite having a marginally better walk rate than DeJong. Or contrast to Greg Garcia, who has his average all the way up to .240, and has an OBP of .364. He's walked 30 times in 214 PAs; Grichuk and DeJong have combined for 31 BBs in 622 PAs. Different approaches, and DeJong certainly is having success. But it cuts down the margin for error quite a bit. Jose Martinez is continuing to be a productive hitter, although his defense has been a nightmare pretty much wherever he's placed. Luke Voit has predictably dropped off after a hot start, but is still being productive. Harrison Bader had a brief call-up, and Magneuris Sierra is apparently coming back up.

Going forward, I don't know what to expect. The pitching has to get its act together, starters and relievers. They can't keep expecting the offense to score 7+ runs every night. I don't know if they need to hope for the guys they've got to turn it around, or start bringing some new faces into the 'pen, but something's got to change there.

Halfway to the End

The Cardinals had a chance to reach the halfway point of the season one game below .500, but Martinez laid an egg and the offense no-showed, so they're 39-42 instead. They are still in contention for a playoff spot, thanks to the NL Central being trash this year. They're coming off winning 4 of 6 from the Diamondbacks and Nationals, two of the actual good teams in the NL. Hard to tell what that means, if anything.

The rotation is inconsistent. Martinez has been good, last night being a notable exception. Mike Leake has rebounded in his last couple of starts after a rough prior month. Lynn's ERA has jumped to close to 4, but his FIP is still over a run and a half higher than that. If he doesn't get the walks and homers under control, I'd expect things to keep getting worse. Wainwright, for the second consecutive year, has an ERA way above his FIP, which makes me suspect it isn't simply bad luck. When he gets hit, he gets hit hard. I'd put Wacha in the same boat. His FIP is equal to Leake's, but his ERA is over a run higher (4.16 to 2.97). Although I'm surprised their FIPs are that close. Leake has a slightly better HR rate (he allows one roughly every 12 innings, Wacha one every 10), and his walk rate is vastly better (about 5.5% vs. 8.4%). Wacha strikes out more guys, which I guess is the difference, the numbers figure Leake should be giving up a lot more hits. Which is fair, but my guess is Leake avoids hard contact better than Wacha. Marco Gonzales made the only start by someone outside those 5, and was hammered.

The bullpen has gone through a lot of turnover, but is still garbage. Socolovich was outrighted to the minors, Broxton was released. Siegrist is thankfully on the DL right now. No one can be trusted to get outs on a consistent basis. In Martinez' previous start, against Arizona, he gave up 2 runs through 6 innings, and the team scored 5 runs, which should have been enough. But Rosenthal, Oh, and Bowman, who are in theory the good relievers, combined to surrender 4 runs in a little over 2 innings and lose the game. Oh, looking at ERA vs. FIP, is getting lucky, because he's surrendering a homer every 6 innings. Rosenthal and Bowman are supposedly getting unlucky, although Rosie's walk rate is back up to a batter every other inning (12%), so it's hard not to see it as him doing it to himself. On the plus side, Cecil has stabilized. His ERA is down to 3.69, which is only a little better than his FIP (3.87). If he's going to be here 4 years, it would be best if he didn't suck the whole time.

Lyons has been useful in long relief when Waino or someone else gets hammered. Brebbia and Tuivailala have both been mostly effective in mop-up work, though FIP suggests both are getting really lucky. Tui could stand to cut down on the walks, and Brebbia should probably stop hitting guys every 5 innings. Mike Mayers still gives up too many home runs, John Gant made one appearance and didn't impress.

The offense is nothing special. While the team is 5th in OBP, they're unfortunately 10th in slugging, so they aren't doing so hot at getting those runners home. Matt Adams was traded to Atlanta, Jhonny Peralta was released, Kolten Wong can't stay healthy, Grichuk was sent all the way to A-ball, worked back up, and is back in the majors. Aledmys Diaz appears to be taking his turn down there now. Fowler is currently on the DL. They've called up Paul Dejong, Chad Huffman, Alex Meija, and Luke Voit at different times. All of which has the feel of a team trying desperately to find a spark that will get them going consistently.

Molina is 5th on the team in HRs, and tied for second in SBs. Great, we're back in 2007, only with no Albert Pujols. Yadi's OBP is hovering around .300, but his ISO is around .145, which is pretty good for him. Fryer has managed 3 extra-base hits in 75 PAs, and his OPS is below .500, even with an uptick in playing time recently.

Matt Carpenter's batting average is sitting steadily between .210 and .250. His OBP is still .370, which is behind only Wong and Pham among regulars, and an ISO of .224. He leads the team in HRs with 14, and is tied with a couple of guys for second in doubles with 15. He seems to be grading out as about an average first baseman defensively. Wong is having his best offensive season by far, if he could just stay on the damn field. OBP of .390, ISO of .143, defensive stats don't love him this year, but could be small sample size noise. Diaz still isn't getting on base, and isn't hitting for nearly enough power to make up for it (ISO of .136). Gyorko's been the best hitter on the team overall. Drawing a surprising number of walks for him, and an ISO of about .220. Not as much power as last year, but a much more well-rounded game. Defensive stats like him, and he seems to be a runner who knows when to pick his spots.

In the outfield, Fowler was steadily bringing up his numbers. The power has been there most of the season - his ISO is .236 -  but his OBP was starting to climb as well. Piscotty's still getting on base at a decent rate, with a .365 OBP, and the power is starting to come back. The ISO is still only .156, but it's better than it was earlier in the year. Grichuk still isn't hitting for nearly enough power to compensate for his abysmal OBP. His ISO is .183, which isn't gonna cut it with a .275 OBP. He's struck out as many times as Carpenter (66) in 110 fewer PAs, while walking one-quarter as many times (14 vs. 56).

Among the reserves, it's a mixed bag. Greg Garcia still gets on base, but his average has tanked enough that's it's dragged his slugging well below .300. If you could combine his and Grichuk's batting lines, you might have something. DeJong has walked twice in 107 PAs, putting even Grichuk's free-swinging to shame. He's just getting away with it a little more, since he's hitting .269. He even manages to strike out slightly more often than Randal, 30.8% versus 30.4%. Jose Martinez is not proving so useful now that he's not hitting .390. His average and OBP are even with Yadi's, but he's hitting for more power, with an ISO of .199. Which still only makes him a basically average hitter.

Tommy Pham is the real standout of the bench guys, and it's questionable how accurate it is to describe him that way. He was in the lead in innings played in left field until recently, and with Fowler out, he's taking a lot of the starts in center lately. Pham strikes out a bit himself - although 24.9% is still a lot better than 30+% - but is walking a fair amount, giving himself a .373 OBP. The power comes and goes, but the ISO is still at .200 right now, and he already has 9 stolen bases, with only two caught stealings, and most of the numbers like his defense. As always with Pham, the question is how long he can stay healthy, but hopefully he's earned Matheny's trust to the point he'll get regular playing time until he gets hurt. He's been the best outfielder on the team this year, by a country mile.

Huffman, Voit, and Meija has 36 PAs between them, with 10 hits, including 2 doubles (Voit), a triple (Huffman), and a homer (Meija).

The offense's problem seems to be too many unbalanced hitters. Too many guys with power, but no capacity to get on-base. Molina, Diaz, Grichuk, DeJong, maybe Jose Martinez. Which might explain all the solo home runs they seem to hit. But then you have the guys like Garcia and Piscotty who can get on base, but aren't driving the ball much. This team is not built for small ball, no matter how hard their manager pushes for it, or how much I might enjoy watching them do it (if they could do it successfully).

There's a month to the trade deadline. I don't know if they'll be buyers or sellers. I suspect buyers, in the typical patch job bullpen acquisition Mozeliak tends to favor, simply because it's going to be hard to land a substantive upgrade to most of their positions. Except maybe shortstop, and there aren't a lot of available options there. If the Angels would fall back, maybe Andrelton Simmons would become available. I'd be fine with them trading some of the relievers - Oh, Rosenthal, Bowman if he can get you something - for a highly regarded position prospect. But that would require those guys to pitch well enough to make someone want them. I suspect Wacha's not an attractive target, and ditto for Lynn and Wainwright. Plus, trading Wainwright might look bad to the fanbase. He's the second-longest tenured guy next to Yadi. Leake has a no-trade clause, but he supposedly wanted to play for the Diamondbacks at one point. They're in contention in a loaded NL West, would they consider trading for him, and what could you get?

The Cardinals really need a position player who can move the needle, that big star to slot in with their legion of solid players. Not a lot of those guys in the majors that are available, but maybe they can get themselves a potential future star from a team trying to win right this second.

The Cardinals At The Quarter Mark

This post might have been a fair bit more positive a week ago. At that point, the Cardinals were 21-15, coming off taking 2 of 3 from the Cubs, having recovered nicely from an abysmal 3-9 start. Then they lost 4 of 5 to the Red Sox and the Giants through the usual combination of bullpen incompetence, garbage baserunning, and abrupt silence from the bats.

So the team is 22-19, about where they were last season at this time. Of course, last year's team was underperforming according to run differential by 5 games, while this one is right on track. The team doesn't seem too different from last year, hardly a surprise given the limited number of roster moves. Inconsistent pitching, bad defense, bad baserunning.

The rotation seems a bit more solid than last year's although that could be an illusion. Last season, everyone except Carlos Martinez was considered unlucky when comparing their ERA to the FIP. This year, everyone except Wainwright has been lucky so far. Lance Lynn's ERA is 2.78, but his FIP is 5.02 (I'm guessing it's the 8 HRs surrendered in 45 innings that has his FIP so high). Leake has a 2.03 ERA, and 3.19 FIP (which is still the best in the rotation, but that's a not inconsiderable gap). Martinez has struck out 62 batters in 57 innings, far and away leading the team (by 20 Ks), but also has 22 BBs (8 of those in that one awful start against the Yankees). Wacha has a 3.34 FIP to his 2.74 ERA, but Matheny is holding him pretty steadily to six innings so far, which seems smart.

The bullpen has been more of a disaster. Oh has a 3.32 ERA, but a 4.88 FIP. They've already had him intentionally walk 5 guys this year, which seems like a lot in 21.67 innings for the person who is supposed to be your closer. What worries me is he can't seem to put hitters away. He can get two strikes, but that final swing and a miss doesn't materialize. But he has 16 Ks, so maybe I'm overreacting. Siegrist has been garbage. His velocity is gone, he's walked 11 batters in 17 innings, his ERA is 5.29 and his FIP is 4.80. Cecil has an ERA and FIP both over 5, he's given us 3 home runs in 15 innings, walked 9 batters in that time. Broxton's ERA is over 6, he's walked 9 and struck out 10 in 12 innings. Socolovich, to my dismay, has been even worse. His ERA is 6.75, his FIP is 5.69 (Broxton's is only 5.64). The one thing I can say for Socolovich is he isn't walking guys - 4 in 17 innings -  but I strongly believed he should have been in the bullpen last year, and this is disheartening.

The useful relievers essentially come down to Bowman (2.79 ERA, 3.09 FIP, only 5 BBs and 1 HR in 19 innings), and Rosenthal (2.76 ERA, 1.14 FIP, 28 Ks, 4 BBs in 16 innings). Tuivailala hasn't been bad in limited stints. Tyler Lyons spent the first month on the DL, came back, hurt something else almost immediately.

On the position player side, Molina's not really hitting much. OBP of .307, .384 SLG. Actually, that amount of power isn't bad for him, it's an Isolated Power of .123, it's the OBP that's killing his numbers. Still, with Eric Fryer's numbers having crashed back to earth hard this season (OPS of .526 in 27 PAs), I'm surprised Molina's had as many days off as he has. There have been five whole games he didn't play in this year!

Matt Carpenter's one of the best hitters on the team, despite his .235 batting average. He has 32 walks; the highest combined total between any two of his teammates is 35 (Fowler + Piscotty). His ISO is .257, with 5 doubles, 9 HRs, and a triple. Unfortunately, switching to first base has not produced an upswing in his defensive value, and he's a lousy combination of slow and aggressive on the basepaths (traits he shares with several of his teammates). Matt Adams was actually playing more in the outfield, because Matheny's brain is actually a tire fire, and was producing an almost league-average batting line by hitting .296, which was keeping up his OBP and lackluster slugging (ISO of .096). Now he's been traded to Atlanta for a first base prospect in A ball. Well, until Freddie Freeman returns from injury, Adams will presumably gets lots of playing time, so one last chance to earn himself a big contract.

Kolten Wong is having one of the better seasons hitting of his career. He's hitting for average (.282), power (ISO of .145), and getting on-base at a .375 clip. He's 3 out of 4 stealing bases, although some of the defensive stats don't love him so far. Still, this is as close as I've seen to him putting all his various skills together. It hasn't really translated into the value I thought it would, though. Maybe if he maintains it for the full season. Gyorko is second on the team in HRs, is hitting .331, and has an ISO of .260. He's already hit almost as many doubles as he did all last season, and played solid infield defense. Aledmys Diaz is hitting for some power, but walked all of once the first month of the season, which is why his OBP is .289.

AS for the bench infielders, Greg Garcia is hitting for next to no power (ISO of .069), but is getting on-base at a .406 clip. So hitting as advertised, basically. Jhonny Peralta played horribly for the first few weeks of the season, got injured (and the team took off), and is now back. His OPS is .536, so 10 points better than Fryer's, and he hasn't had an extra-base hit yet. At this stage, the Cardinals should either cut bait or trade him and send some cash along to get whatever they can. Just get him out of the way and if you need another infielder call up Paul DeJong or Luke Voit for a bit.

Fowler seems to be coming along. The average isn't there, but his OBP is .318 in spite of it (and he's second on the team in walks behind Carpenter), and he has 6 HRs and 4 triples. Piscotty has been a little better than average hitting as well, thanks to his .381 OBP, because he's not hitting for any power (.129 ISO). He's alo a disaster on the bases, another guy who likes to run but has no clue what he's doing. He's been on the DL for awhile, and suffered a setback just as he was getting close to returning. Grichuk is what he usually is. His average is bad, his OBP is terrible, but he hits for some power, although not much compared to his teammates (ISO of .170). He does lead the team with 13 doubles, for what that's worth.

Jose Martinez was the 4th outfielder coming out of spring training, but often found himself playing first base on Carpenter's days off. Even though Matt Adams was on the roster. Martinez hit for a good average, drew three walks, and hit for a little power in limited chances before he got hurt. Once he did get hurt, the Cardinals called up Tommy Pham, and he did what he does about half the time he's in the majors: Crush the fucking ball (the other half of the time he just strikes out a lot, but the same is true of Grichuk). Pham is hitting .294 with 4 doubles and 3 HRs in just 60 plate appearances. He has struck out 18 times, which isn't great, but his OBP is still .367, so it isn't killing his value. When Piscotty also got hurt (and Fowler was hurt but not put on the DL), they called up Magneuris Sierra all the way from A-ball. Sierra played pretty much like the reports suggested he would: He swung at most everything, didn't drive the ball much, ran really fast (but with no clue how to steal bases), and played excellent defense in centerfield. He was exciting, if not ready for the majors. So it's understandable they sent him back to make room for Peralta, if a little disappointing. But He needs as much chance to work on his hitting as possible, as well as learning to harness his speed.

Going forward, it's hard to tell what to expect of this team. They aren't as bad as the 3-9 start, they aren't as good as 18-6 run that followed it. They're probably roughly the same as last year's team, amybe a little better in the field, but with less power. Bullpen seems worse, rotation is a little better. Probably end up between 82-90 wins, barring either catastrophe or trading for a major difference maker.

Spring Training Was Not Encouraging

The start of baseball games that actually matter is almost upon us, and since I am studiously avoiding the NFL offseason, and waiting for the NBA playoffs to start so I don't have to deal with all these shitass teams trying to lose, let's check back in on the St. Louis Cardinals.

Alex Reyes got hurt before Spring Training even started. He's out for the year. So welcome Michael Wacha back to the rotation! Wainwright's been trying to hone a changeup throughout the spring, and getting his ass beat, which doesn't exactly bode well for my hopes he'd rebound this year.

In the bullpen, Trevor Rosenthal just went on the DL today basically. Tuivailala will be taking his spot in the 'pen, as the Cardinals answered one of my prayers by already including Socolovich on the roster. So it's Oh, Bowman, Cecil, Socolovich, Broxton (sigh), Tuivailala, and I don't know. Rosie's out now, Lyons isn't ready yet I don't think, maybe it's John Gant.

On the position player side of things, the team has supposedly worked out a contract extension with Molina for three more years at $55-65 million. Which would cover Yadi up through his age-38 season, and make him the highest paid catcher in baseball. And let's be honest, he probably won't be producing at the level of best catcher in baseball, it's unlikely he'll hold up, but I'm generally OK with this. It isn't my money, for one thing. There's no guarantee the Cardinals would spend that money somewhere else, or spend it intelligently, if they didn't spend it on Yadier. As profitable as this team is, this should not preclude them from signing some potential big name free agent, like Manny Machado or Bryce Harper (assuming either of those guys would be interested in coming to play for the Cardinals). I'm still surprised, though. I've grown to expect them to let the veteran guy walk in favor of the cheaper option.

Elsewhere on the diamond, Jhonny Peralta was named starting 3rd baseman, while the team has once again walked back from an earlier vote of confidence in Kolten Wong, with Matheny mentioning Kolten will possibly be platooned. Although based on Matheny's past history, he doesn't mean "platoon", where the lefthanded hitter plays against righties, and the righthander against lefties. He means he splits time up based on who happened to have a good game last week. Wong stated he wasn't happy and would rather be traded when informed of this by a media person, and much arguing commenced among the fans.

If Matheny did platoon Wong with Gyorko, the former against righties, the latter against lefties, that would be a reasonable and understandable decision. Wong could still be unhappy, but it wouldn't be a bad call. Like I said, though, Matheny hasn't shown any capacity to understand how to do that, so this will probably result in Kolten having a bad week, and finding himself glued to the bench as he reenters the Labyrinth of Working Through Adversity.

Interesting that Peralta, who has also sucked during Spring Training, and has one year left on his contract, is not facing any talk of being platooned.

In the outfield, Pham has looked unable to even see the ball in Spring Training, continuing an unsettling trend that started partway through last season. So he was left off the roster in favor of Jose Martinez. Oh boy. But don't worry about Martinez being the only backup outfielder, because the Cardinals are going to play Matt Adams out there as well. It pains me to type that. So much for giving a shit about defense this year. I'm sure the rotation can't wait to watch Adams flail around in left field like a slowly dying manatee.

Looking In On The Offseason

The offseason isn't over, so the St. Louis Cardinals could still do something else, but we might as well look at the roster changes they've made so far.

Rotation: The major change is that the Cards traded Jaime Garcia to Atlanta for John Gant, Chris Ellis, and Luke Dykstra. Gant's the only to play in the majors so far, with a fairly unimpressive 50 innings last year, though he may not have been fully healthy. It feels like a weak haul, since none of the three project as difference makers, but Garcia's coming off a season in which he did stay basically healthy, but didn't pitch well, and only has one year left on his contract. If Gant and Ellis can function as back of the rotation injury replacements or bullpen reinforcements, maybe that's not too bad.

Beyond that, they lost Tim Cooney as a possible rotation filler to the Rule 5 draft, but Marco Gonzales might be back and able to contribute. As it stands, though, it looks as if Lance Lynn and Alex Reyes are the early frontrunners to fill Garcia and Wacha's spots in the rotation. Wacha might still be a possibility if necessary, Tyler Lyons should be back, and Luke Weaver will get a chance to actually pitch in AAA for awhile. If Wainwright can bounce back, and if Reyes can throw more strikes (and if the Cardinals defense is better than atrocious), the rotation might not be too bad, if not overwhelming.

Bullpen: Seung-hwan Oh is still here, presumably he'll retain the closer role he took  over from Rosenthal. But Rosenthal seemed to find the ability to throw strikes after returning from injury, so hopefully he can be a major player again. Siegrist is here, as is Broxton (sigh). Seth Maness was non-tendered, not surprising given his Tommy John surgery. Likewise, Zach Duke is out for the year with TJ surgery. The big signing was Brett Cecil from Toronto, for 4 years and $30 million. Cecil struggled some last year, wasn't as effective against right-handed hitters as he had been in the past. Hopefully that was a one-year fluke, and not a trend. If he can pitch against batters from either side of the plate, that'd be handy.

Oh, Rosenthal, Siegrist, Cecil, Broxton makes five. The other two I would assume are going to be Wacha and Lyons, if they're healthy and ready to go. I'd guess Gant might be next man up, or Tuivailala. I'd go with Socolovich myself, who has done nothing but get outs everytime the Cards actually call him up, but they just don't seem high on him for some reason. So it'll be some guy who throws hard but can't find the plate with a road map, most likely.

Catcher: They cut Brayan Pena with a year left on his contract. They resigned Eric Fryer to a minor league deal. Of course, they wouldn't ever play Fryer when they had him last year, so hard to see what good he is. They have Carson Kelly, but he's supposed to start the year in AAA. It appears they've well and truly abandoned any pretense they're going to try and restrict Molina's innings behind the plate. And if you're going to let him play until he breaks down entirely, why bother to have a decent backup? He'd just sit on the bench. So presumably Fryer or someone similar will collect splinters in his butt until Molina gets hurt, at which point they'll bring up Kelly so he can play most every day. In theory.

Infield: Not much movement here. Matt Carpenter is supposed to be the regular first baseman now, which may not be much of a defense improvement at the position. I expect Carpenter will be better than Matt Adams, but not by much. Adams is a solid first baseman. Probably it's more about improving the defense at the positions Carpenter used to play. Kolten Wong will probably get the chance to be the starting second baseman, until Matheny loses confidence in him again. So, April 17th then. Aledmys Diaz is still the starting shortstop, so hopefully the improvement he showed at the position over the course of the season (when he went from "horrendous" to "below-average") was real. Peralta and Gyorko will probably split time at 3rd, assuming Peralta can bounce back enough to keep Gyorko from taking the job entirely. Greg Garcia and Matt Adams are still around, too, for now.

Outfield: Matt Holliday signed with the Yankees. Brandon Moss is still out there unsigned, as far as I know. The Cardinals signed Dexter Fowler as a free agent. So over the course of two offseasons, the Cards and the Cubs swapped outfielders. I'm inclined to think the Cubs got the better of that deal, even allowing for Fowler's deal being much cheaper, and the fact Heyward completely forgot how to hit last year. The fact Michael Wilbon is sure the Cards got the better end only further convinces me, because Wilbon's a dope.

Fowler's not a bad player by any stretch, he can hit some, draw some walks. I'm certainly looking forward to his generally good baserunning, after watching this team run around the bases like a bunch of kids at a laser tag place. But his defense isn't really anything to write home about, and he's on the wrong side of 30 already. Like with Heyward (who is at least a few years younger), I worry how Fowler's skills are going to age. The patience and plate discipline will presumably hold up, but I'd expect speed and defense to suffer.

At any rate, Fowler is the presumptive centerfielder, with Grichuk moving to left, and Piscotty remaining in right. The backup outfielder is probably Tommy Pham, although it's hard to be sure given Matheny doesn't seem much of a fan. That and Pham has trouble staying healthy. There is Jose Martinez, who played a little last season, and the Cardinals signed a Jordan Schaefer to a minor league contract last month, he's played some outfield in the majors, but after that, there ain't much.

And there's no room for them, anyway. If the Cardinals carry 7 relievers - and it's pretty likely they will because everyone does these days and the Cards seem unlikely to buck the norm in that regard - they have space for 5 bench players. One spot goes to the guy who sits on his butt watching Molina everyday, because you need someone who can competently catch just in case Yadi gets injured or ejected. Then there's Matt Adams and Greg Garcia, who is out of options, so he can't be sent to the minors without going through waivers. And I feel like a guy in his mid-to-late 20s who still hasn't hit arbitration, can play second base, third base and shortstop, all passably well, and is quite good at getting on-base, would draw interest from somebody. And the Cardinals need all the guys who can actually get on base they can get. So that's three guys, plus whichever of Gyorko and Peralta isn't starting. Which leaves one spot for an outfielder. At least Pham can, theoretically, play all three positions, though it's more likely Matheny would move Grichuk to CF to spell Fowler.

Anyway, overall, it doesn't feel like the Cardinals did much to change their level. They should still have a decent floor for their production, what with all the roughly average players. But their ceiling seems limited because there are so few real standouts. Maybe Carlos Martinez is a superstar, maybe Reyes can become one immediately, maybe Wainwright can dig deep and reach that level again. If he can stay healthy and hit like he has the last two years, I think Matt Carpenter can be a superstar, albeit a low-level one. Molina probably is, if he can hit like he did in 2016 and keep his defense from slipping much more (and if we decide there are all kinds of ways he adds value we can't measure in terms of influence on a pitching staff). I think if Diaz can be close to average defensively, and hit as he did last year, he could another lower-tier guy like Carpenter, but that's about it. The other guys are mostly just average. Nothing wrong with that; average guys are handy to have, and you never know when one is going to have a sudden freak year of being really great (although I suspect that was what last season was for Gyorko), but it tends to limit how far you can go with those guys.

Of course, if the bullpen can avoid shitting itself multiple times this season, that may be enough all on its own, at least to make the playoffs.

Mildly Disappointing

The Arizona Cardinals are 1-3, after losing to the St. Louis Rams 17-13. Which makes Arizona 1-2 at home so far this season. Carson Palmer was knocked out by taking enough hits to the head they put him into concussion protocol. Meanwhile, the defense was giving way at the worst moment, giving the lead back to the Rams. Then Drew Stanton came in and promptly threw an INT. Which was pretty funny, since the announcers were blathering on about how poor Stanton never seemed to be wanted by any of the teams that picked him up, and right as they're bemoaning his eternal bridesmaid fate, he kills any chance they had of winning.

The loss isn't necessarily a surprise. The Cardinals are out of sync, and Palmer got his ass beat by the Bills last week. Now he was facing the Rams and their pass rush, so him being pummeled was an unfortunately likely end result. Oh well, maybe the Cardinals are trying to wait until late in the season to hit their stride, like the Seahawks do sometimes.

On the baseball side of the ledger, the St. Louis Cardinals won their final four games, but did not make the playoffs, because the Giants finally got their act together. How much of san Francisco's success was them as opposed to the Dodgers not giving a shit I couldn't say. It's not as though the Cards didn't have every opportunity the last two months to seize one of the two wild cards. The Giants played like shit after the All-Star Break, but the Cardinals couldn't do better than stumbling along at slightly better than .500. Too many games against the Braves and Reds they let get away.

Hard to say what the offseason will bring. They're declining Holliday's option, though I'm not convinced they won't try to bring him back on a cheaper deal. I'm not sure if they'll make a qualifying offer to Moss, or if he'll accept if they do. He's been in a slump for the last month, probably cost himself millions. Will they pick up Garcia's option, what do they do with Wacha, or Rosenthal? Can they ship Peralta out for anything (as part of a package deal), do they even want to.

That Didn't Go Well For Anyone

Arizona lost the Buffalo 33-18, which is what happens when you allow 150 yards rushing - in the first half. I had been hoping for a huge butt-whooping that got Rex Ryan (and most likely his brother as well) fired, as sort of a fuck you to their asshole dad, so much for that.

On the baseball side, the St. Louis Cardinals lost the last game of their series with the Rockies, then lost two of three to the Cubs. They aren't currently not in either Wild Card spot, despite half the Mets' roster being injured, and the entire Giants' roster being garbage. They have series with the Reds and Pirates left. That would seem like encouraging news, considering those teams aren't very good, but the Cards haven't exactly covered themselves in glory against either team this year. 15-16 combined. They're making basically the same screw-up Pittsburgh did last year, not beating up on the weaker teams in the division. That was why the Cardinals won the division ahead of the Pirates last season, Pittsburgh had losing records against every other team in the Central, and the Cards had winning records against all of them, especially the Reds and Brewers.

Anyway, I have to imagine both those teams would enjoy it a little bit if they could keep the Cardinals out of the playoffs with them, so we'll see if they succeed. I'm just ready for this frustrating mess of a season to be over.

That's A Little Better, I Guess

Arizona trounced the Tampa Bay Bucs, 40-7. Jameis Winston got picked off 4 times, and Carson Palmer threw for over 300 yards and 3 TDs. It was 24-0 by halftime. It doesn't entirely wash away the unease of the Cardinals losing to the Patriots minus Brady and Gronk last week, but it's better than being 0-2. Especially since the Rams beat Seattle, and the 49ers were trounced by the Panthers, so everyone in the NFC West is 1-1.

On the baseball side of things, it looked as though the Cardinals were finally going to choose a direction for their season. They lost the last game of a series with the Brewers, then two of three to the Cubs, then the first two of a 4-game set with the Giants. But nope, they proceeded to win the final two games against the Giants, then the first game of a series with the Rockies. Combined with the Giants' continuing collapse, the Cards are back into the second Wild Card spot. So nothing's changed, except the pitching is being leaned on more heavily, because the offense has gone to sleep. They still have the rest of the series with Colorado, then the Reds and Pirates. The Cards have done OK against the Pirates, but if they end up missing the playoffs, a poor showing against the crapass Reds is going to be one of the many culprits.