John Smoltz? Eh, Why Not

So now the Cardinals went and signed John Smoltz, and they're even going to put him in the rotation, rather than in the bullpen. I suppose financially there's no real risk, and the team seems to have a sufficient lead to hold onto the division, and even if Smoltz bombs in his starts, the front of the rotation (Carpenter, Wainwright, Pineiro) ought to be able to keep the team from going into any extended losing streaks.

Of course, Smoltz has been really lousy this year. The upshots are a) his lousiness only covers 40 innings, so maybe it's just a small sample size and he'll straighten things out, and b) he was in the American League East, facing much tougher offensive opposition than he will now. His first three starts for the Cardinals are against the Padres, Nationals, and Pirates. Two of those teams are in the bottom 4 in runs per game in the NL, so about the only way Smoltz could have it easier was if he faced San Francisco. Or the Reds.

Let's see, other positives. Smoltz has been pretty solid against right handed hitters (.649 OPS), though that's only 85 PAs. Unfortunately, lefties are killing him (1.248 OPS), though that's only 101 PAs. So in one case I have to hope the small sample means something, and with the other I have to hope it doesn't.

One positive for Smoltz is that the bar he has to hurdle as the #5 starter is pretty damn low.

Todd Wellenmeyer made 20 starts, totaling 110 innings (5.5 innings/start), surrendered 71 earned runs (5.81 ERA), 47 walks, and only 71 Ks.

Brad Thompson made 8 starts, totaling 43 innings (5.375 innings/start), surrendered 28 earned runs (5.86 ERA), walked 15, struck out 16.

Mitch Boggs made 7 starts, totaling 35.1 innings (5.047 innings/start), surrendered 18 earned runs (4.58 ERA), walked 22, K'd 31.

So all Smoltz has to do is be less terrible than those three, and he's doing fine. And in theory, I believe the Cardinals plan on making him a setup guy if/when the playoffs roll around, and so this will serve more to help him get in sync, and maybe help him figure out how to retire hitters from either side of the plate. Ultimately, the Cardinals can probably afford to give him a few starts now if it helps convince him to shore up their bullpen later. If they can make that happen.

Team-Building Exercise, Take 2

Back in April and May I did that 4-post series where I tried to compile a top-notch St. Louis Cardinals team while taking one player from each season. As I was going through it, I started to get the impression I probably could have put a better group together, so I fiddled around with it a bit over the summer and came up with this second group. So I'm going to compare them more or less side-by-side, using WARP3 as a comparative stat. As I understand it, WARP3 is adjusted so you can compare players from different eras, stadiums, leagues, etc.

Rotation:

Version 1 - John Tudor (1985 - 8), Chris Carpenter (2005 - 6.6), Bob Tewksbury (1992 - 5.7), Darryl Kile (2001 - 5.2), Joe Magrane (1989 - 4.8) = 30.3 WAR

Version 2 - Tudor (1985 - 8), Chris Carpenter (2005 - 6.6), Bob Tewksbury (1992 - 5.7), Darryl Kile (2001 - 5.2), Matt Morris (1997 - 4.8) = 30.3 WAR

Comments - It's a draw, but I felt pretty good about the rotation, so I didn't see much reason to screw around with it.

Bullpen:

Version 1 -Rickey Horton (1986 - 3.5), Ken Dayley (1990 - 1.5), Mike Perez (1993 - 3), Rob Murphy (1994 - 2), Tom Henke (1995 - 6.3), Rich Croushore (1999 - ?), Dave Veres (2002 - 1.4) = 17.7

Version 2 - Horton (1986 - 3.5), Dayley (1987 - 1.7), Perez (1993 - 3), Henke (1995 - 6.3), Croushore (1999 - ?), Veres (2002 - 1.4) = 15.9

Comments - Cost myself 1.8 wins, but that's mostly because I cut the bullpen down to 6 guys instead of 7, which let me add a sixth player to the bench. Yeah, I still don't know how much Croushore would be worth, but since he's on both teams, it doesn't really matter. Did get a slightly better version of Ken Dayley, so on average, each reliever is worth slightly more than they were in the first go-round.

Bench:

Version 1 - Jose Oquendo (1988 - 2.9), Eduardo Perez (2000 - 0.5), Yadier Molina (2004 - 0.9), Ryan Ludwick (2007 - 1.6), Brian Barton (2008 - 0.8) = 6.7

Version 2 - Rex Hudler (1990 - 1.9), Gerald Perry (1994 - 1.3), Tom Lampkin (1998 - 0.4), Perez (2003 - 1.3), Scott Spiezio (2006 - 2.6), Barton (2008 - 0.8) = 8.3

Comments - Lots of changes here, which reflect a change in my strategy. Namely, get the best seasons you can for your starters (while making allowances for my biases), and fill in the bench with the best you can find from what's left. At any rate, I gained 1.6 wins. The average bench guy on Version 2 is worth 1.38 WARs, while on Version 1 it was 1.34. So it's not a big difference, and it doesn't even make up for what I lost in the 'pen, but it'll show dividends in the starting lineup.

Starting Lineup:

Version 1 - Tom Pagnozzi (1991 - 4.8), Albert Pujols (2006 - 9.3), Delino DeShields (1997 - 3.3), Scott Rolen (2003 - 8.5), Ozzie Smith (1987 - 8), Ron Gant (1996 - 3.8), Willie McGee (1984 - 4.3), Brian Jordan (1998 - 4.7) = 46.7

Version 2 - Tony Pena (1988 - 4.7), Albert Pujols (2007 - 11.5), Jose Oquendo (1989 - 6.2), Scott Rolen (2004 - 11.6), Ozzie Smith (1991 - 8.5), Ray Lankford (2000 - 2), Willie McGee (1984 - 4.3) Brian Jordan (1996 - 5.7) = 54.5

Comments - There's the payoff. I ended up a little weaker at left field, but I picked up at least 2 wins at first, second, and third base, and another win in right field.

All told, Version 1 was worth 101.4 WAR, and Version 2, 109, so if I was trying to build a better team, mission accomplished. I'm sure it's not the best team possible. That would probably require '98-'99 McGwire at first, '02-'03 Albert in LF, '08 Ludwick in RF, '00-'04 Edmonds (maybe '92-'98 Lankford) in CF, and possibly '03 Renteria at SS, but this is my team, so none of those things are terribly likely to happen.