Thursday, January 05, 2012

Week 17 Ends On A High Note

Arizona finished the season at .500, beating the Seahawks 23-20. In overtime, naturally. That makes 4 OT victories in the last 9 games of the season. The Cardinals got 93 yards rushing from LaRod Stephens-Howling, in place of Beanie Wells, who didn't play for some reason. Which means Wells joins the ranks of Cards' running backs since '93 who topped 1,000 yards, but couldn't reach 1,100 (Ron Moore in '93, Garrison Hearst in '95, Adrian Murrell in '98).

The Seahawks had a better day rushing, getting a combined 154 yards on 26 carries from Marshawn Lynch and Leon Washington, with Washington having a 48 yard rushing TD. But the Cards sacked Tavaris Jackson 4 times, and picked him off once, and Skelton only threw one INT. And for once, the Cardinals didn't make a 4th quarter comeback, as they actually had a 10 point lead, and still had to win in OT.

I suppose losing would have helped the Cards' draft position, but I've seen them whiff on so many Top 10 picks that it doesn't bother me any. I'd rather have the win. For next year, offensive line would seem to be a major area of concern, and linebacker could probably use some more beefing up. They're starting to get some good players there, but they need more.

They'll have to figure out the QB thing as well. Skelton did improve on his completion percentage from last year, but only from 47 to 55 percent. He also was intercepted on over 5% of his pass attempts. On the other hand, Kolb gets sacked on over 10% of his dropbacks, and hasn't demonstrated he can stay upright for an entire season. It isn't as though his 9 TD - 8 INT, with a 58% completion percentage is the stuff legends are made of. At the end of the day though, he has the big contract, and the team can argue he didn't have much time to learn the offense last year, so I imagine the job is his to lose.

The person who really impresses me is Larry Fitzgerald. With the mediocre QBs he had to work with, he still had over 1,400 yards receiving. That's almost a third of the team's total passing yards. And only one drop in 150 targets, too. I bet one of the reasons for the few drops is that many of the ones that failed to be caught were too badly overthrown for even Fitzgerald to try and get a hand on them. Skelton does have a tendency to overthrow badly.

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Sunday, December 25, 2011

Back To The Other Cardinals

Since the last time I discussed the St. Louis Cardinals, they signed J.C. Romero and, more impressively, Carlos Beltran.

Romero might be OK, as long as they keep him away from right-handed batters. His career OPS against righties is .812, and it's been getting worse as his career progresses. Something I didn't know is that Kyle McClellan is also much more effective against lefties. Their career OPS is .629, versus righties .749. His splits also appear to be growing more pronounced. Last year lefties were .638, righties .827.

With Beltran, I'm curious whether he can still play a competent centerfield. In the short term, that isn't hugely critical, since Allen Craig isn't going to be ready to go until probably at least May, and it's doubtful he'll come out of the gate firing on all cylinders. That'll leave Beltran plenty of opportunities to play in right. But in theory, Craig will eventually be ready to play regularly. Now, he could spell Holliday in left and Berkman at first, in addition to playing right field. I doubt they'll use him at second; it just seems like too much stress on a surgically repaired knee. It would help if Beltran can spell Jay in center without it being too much of a defensive disaster. Holliday and Craig are both average or better in the corner spots, but it'd be best if Beltran isn't the equivalent of Right Fielder Lance Berkman in center. Beltran didn't play in center at all last year, and he's a year older, but he's also another year removed from knee surgery, so maybe those things offset. He doesn't have to be peak Jim Edmonds; roughly average would more than suffice, assuming his hitting holds up.

At any rate, the Cardinals seem to have mostly filled their roster, barring trading some projected starters away.

Rotation - Carpenter, Garcia, Lohse, Wainwright, Westbrook
Bullpen - McClellan, Motte, Romero, Rzepczynski, Salas
Catcher - Molina
Infield - Berkman, Descalso, Freese, Furcal, Schumaker
Outfield - Beltran, Craig, Holliday, Jay, Komatsu

That's 21, which leaves 4 spots. I figure the last two bullpen spots will go to some combo of Boggs, Lynn, and Sanchez. I'm partial to Boggs and Sanchez, not because of anything against Lynn. I'd prefer him in the AAA rotation as insurance against the inevitable injury.

Back-up catcher seems like it'll come down to either Tony Cruz or Bryan Anderson. They have roughly equivalent major league experience (slight edge to Cruz), and Cruz was clearly preferred by LaRussa, who is gone, so fuck his preferences. Anderson has worked with Matheny to improve his defense, so maybe that gives him an in with the new coach. Plus he's a lefty, so maybe that offers some platoon split opportunities.

That leaves a spot for a utility infielder. Tyler Greene might have the edge since he can play second or short, or theoretically third base. But a bench of Greene, Cruz/Anderson, Schumaker, Komatsu, and Craig is pretty lacking in power. And Craig won't be ready at season's start. They could add Matt Carpenter until Craig is ready. He's an actual 3rd baseman, rather than a middle infielder playing there, and he has a little power. Not as much as Craig, but more than any of those other guys. He's insurance against what's likely to be an inevitable Freese injury.

I don't quite follow the reason for having Skip and Komatsu. Offensively they're fairly similar, with not much power or ability to draw walks. I suppose they're still thinking of using Skip at second. Ugh. I'd rather have Punto. He even signed with Boston for the same contract Skip got. Oh well, too late now.

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Saturday, December 24, 2011

Week 16 Marks The End Of The Dream

Arizona lost to the Bengals 23-16, which officially ends the Cards' chances of making the playoffs. Sure, they were a long shot to begin with, but it would have been cool if they could make it in after their horrible start.

The Cardinals followed their recent strategy of doing very little offensively the first 3 quarters, then trying to come back in the fourth. Problem being they fell behind 23-0 to a team that's a little too good to blow that big a lead. Skelton didn't help matters by throwing 3 INTs before rallying with 2 TDs in the 4th. He once again got no help from the running game, as Wells had only 53 yards on 14 carries. The Bengals meanwhile, had 165 yards on 34 carries as a team.

There's not a lot else to say. The Cards did have a chance to tie or win (if they went for 2), but Early Doucet fell down for some reason, so the pass went incomplete.

I'm curious now whether the Cardinals will start Kolb against Seattle in Week 17. On the one hand, the Cards will be playing for nothing more than pride and a chance to finish .500. That would suggest there's no reason to risk Kolb getting another concussion. At the same time, Kolb still needs to prove something. Yes, Skelton has largely failed to demonstrate he should be the longterm starter. He has 10 TDs and 13 INTs, which is only acceptable if you're the Raiders and you really like Carson Palmer. But he has showed some skill at the end of games, and unlike Kolb, he actually makes it through games without getting injured. It doesn't much matter if Kolb is better if he can't stay on the field. And Kolb hasn't been all that great himself. So coming back and leading the team to a .500 record at home to close out the season wouldn't hurt his standing with the fans.

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Sunday, December 18, 2011

Week 15 Keeps The Playoff Dream Alive

With another narrow victory naturally. Arizona triumphed over Cleveland 20-17 in overtime. John Skelton lead his fourth 4th quarter comeback of the season, throwing for over 300 yards and a TD. He was also intercepted once, and sacked 4 times, but take the bad with the good.

The sacks might be on the offensive line, since the running game failed to engage for the second consecutive week. Beanie Wells had 51 yards on 15 carries, and the team as a whole had just 74 yards, at 3.1 ypc. For the Browns, Peyton Hillis ran for 91 yards, and they averaged 4.1 ypc. However, O'Brien Schofield had sacks on consecutive plays, and thanks to a Whisenhunt challenge, the second one produced a fumble the Cards recovered and turned into the tying points. Let's hear it for the young linebacking corps! Whoo! This 3-4 defense thing might not be such a stupid idea after all, now that they have personnel fit to run it.

I suppose I shouldn't be so excited about a narrow victory over a team that's now 4-10. But it was so easy to see Arizona losing this game. They're on a bit of a roll. Analysts are praising their defense, they're in the wild card hunt, and they just beat the big, bad division leader. And here come the suckass Browns into town, with their backup QB under center. That's a game ripe for the Cards to blow, and they nearly did. They had to overcome a 10-point deficit in the 4th quarter, after all. But overcome it they did.

I can't quite figure this team out. Their defense is good. Not great, and it has its bad moments, but those are to be expected with the number of young guys they're starting. Their offense shows flashes, mostly with Kolb as QB, but the pass blocking and run blocking are so spotty. Sometimes they're good, frequently (especially the pass blocking) they aren't. I don't know if that's a talent issue, or a coaching one. The complaints I see online about Levi Brown suggest he, at least, is a talent issue, but who knows.

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Tuesday, December 13, 2011

A Series Of Lukewarm Moves

In the absence of Albert Pujols, the Cardinals have gone on trying to put together their team. First they resigned Rafael Furcal at 14 million over 2 seasons. That's OK, I suppose. Furcal's probably the best value left at SS after Reyes signed with the Marlins. Jimmy Rollins is better, younger, and has fewer chronic injury problems. But he also wants a 4 year contract, at likely more than 7 million a year, and I'm not keen on being locked in with a SS until he's 37.

Still, I find myself less than excited with Furcal. I guess I doubt he'll stay healthy, and I'm not convinced about his defense, which is something I prize in a SS. I hope he rediscovers his speed; it'd be nice to have a leadoff man who can steal some bases. While I was intrigued by the prospect of Tyler Greene getting the starting job and unleashing his full potential in a devastating display speed and power, Furcal's a much safer bet.

On the negative side of ledger, they're bringing back Schumaker on a two-year contract as well. It only pays something like 3 million total, but cripes, what do they need him for? His offense is declining steadily, with less power and a lowering walk rate, and his defense isn't strong enough to compensate for that. He's a lousy second baseman, and since he's a lefthanded hitter, he can't even be a centerfield platoon with Jay, who is also a lefty.

They also tendered a deal to Kyle McClellan, which I don't really see the need for. One thing the Cardinals don't lack for is righthanded relief pitching. I guess Kyle could serve as the stopgap starter when one of the rotation guys gets hurts, but I'd rather see Lynn, Dickson, or Broderick from AAA. At the end of the day, he and Schumaker aren't big investments for the team, certainly nothing that should keep them from making a deal for Carlos Beltran, but they just don't seem like they're worth it. I do hope the Schumaker signing isn't going to mean farewell to Punto. I'd rather have a utility infielder who is actually a good infielder. I don't expect he'll maintain the offensive production we saw this year, but he does draw walks, and if he can hit for a decent average he'll be good for getting on base.

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Monday, December 12, 2011

Week 14 Brings Victory Over a Good Team

Considering how badly Dallas lost last night against the Giants, I'm not sure they qualify. But the 49ers, for all their recent struggles, are still 10-3, thanks to Arizona beating them 21-19.

The Cardinals won despite Kolb getting a concussion from an inadverdent knee to the head on the first drive. Despite Skelton coming in and throwing two picks, plus losing a fumble on a scramble. Despite forcing no turnovers of their own. Despite Beanie Well gaining only 27 yards on 15 carries. Despite losing time of possession in the first half 22 minutes to 8, which put them on pace for a near repeat of the last go-round, when the Niners held the ball over 44 minutes.

The Cardinals won because Skelton did manage to complete 19 of 28 passes for about 280 yards and 3 TDs. His receivers did a lot of the work after the catch, with Early Doucet getting a 60-yard reception, and Fitzgerald a 49-yarder, as part of his 7 catches, 149 yards. Skelton also managed 25 yards on 6 carries, easily the most productive Cards' runner. The defense may not have gotten any takeaways, but they did sack Alex Smith 5 times, and he completed less than half of his passes. The Cardinals also got lucky by calling a challenge right before the Niners ran a fake punt that looked like it would produce a huge gain, possibly a TD. The challenge never got going, because the replay equipment was messed up, but it killed the Niners element of surprise, and lead them to try a 50-yard field goal instead. The defense also held the Niners to field goals on three separate occasions when they were inside the 10, though to be fair,, san Fran has had that problem all season.

They also had some help from some curious Niners' play calling. San Francisco hasn't been as run heavy as the tebow-lead Broncos, but they do tend to minimize Smith's pass attempts. Yesterday he threw 37 times (completing 18), and Frank gore ran only 10 times, despite getting 72 yards and a TD on those carries. Well, having seen the Cardinals shoot themselves in the foot for not running enough when they're having success, I'm glad to see another team make the same mistake.

Now there are people discussing playoff scenarios for Arizona, which, let's not go nuts here. They'd have to get in as a wildcard, and currently Atlanta, Detroit, Chicago, the Giants, and Dallas are all ahead of them, and Seattle will be if it beats the Rams tonight. I'm just enjoying the victories and the fact that in his fifth season, Whisenhunt might finally have put together a defense.

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Friday, December 09, 2011

Albert Pujols Is Now A California Angel

That's what they were called when I started watching baseball, and it takes less space to type than the nonsense name they have now. They offered 10 years and $254 million, Albert accepted, legions of Cardinals fans went online to disavow ever liking Albert Pujols, ever being glad he was a Cardinal, to hope for his career to go into immediate decline, for him to be busted for PED use, to suffer a career-ending injury, or to demand to know how he could leave, so on and so forth. In other words, lose their shit.

Frankly, I'd like to meet all these Cardinals fans who are apparently so wealthy they could turn up their nose at an extra $34 million over ten years. They could loan me some money. I wouldn't ask for anywhere near that much, so clearly they'd never miss such an inconsequential sum.

Look, I'm probably the last person who should be telling people to calm the fuck down. I have railed against LaRussa and the Cardinals for trading Brendan Ryan and trying to feed us a line of bullshit about Ryan Theriot being a shortstop for about a year now. That being said, people need to calm the fuck down*.

Albert Pujols doesn't owe the Cardinals or the fans shit. Whatever he might have owed from them drafting him in the 13th round, or for giving him a spot on the Opening Day roster in 2001, or for his recently expired 8 year, $111 million contract, he more than repaid. They won 2 World Series titles with him, and wouldn't have won either without him. They went to another World Series. True, I'd just as soon forget that one ever happened, but it did and he was a major part of it. They had one losing season in his 11 years with the team**. The Cardinals may have given Albert the opportunity, but he's the one who made something of it.

By that same token, the Cardinals owe Albert nothing. They paid him in accordance with a contract he agreed to. Was that contract well below value for the production he offered? Hell yes, and maybe that's why he went for the biggest money contract this time. Imagine if he'd played through his 3 arbitration years (2004-2006) on one year contracts, then gone on the free agent market in an offseason when he was turning 27***, and had just won a World Series. Holy crap. The fact remains, he took the contract and as far as I know, the Cardinals didn't stiff him on a dime. Once the contract ended, they were under no obligation to offer him any more than they felt comfortable with. That comfort level apparently ended at 10 years and $220 million, which was insufficient for Albert.

So here we are. I'm in a middle ground. I don't blame either side for their decision. I would have liked for Albert to be a Cardinal his entire career, to chase Stan Musial for the franchise record in all sorts of offensive categories. I would not have liked for the Cardinals to be paying him $25 (or 22 for that matter) million a year for the next decade. Though I suppose that kind of payroll commitment would force them to build from within, as it would kind of limit their opportunities to chase free agents. At least, free agents that could have a large impact. I would have enjoyed that.

The years were really the hang up for me. Had it been my call, I'd have given him 25 million per for 7 years in a heartbeat, or even 30 million per for 5. But a 10-year contract? A bridge too far, but one Albert really wanted, and someone else was willing to give. It's disappointing, but the team will go on. My Cardinals fandom survived the strike, LaRussa alienating Ozzie, J.D. Drew's oft-injured presence, Ankiel's pitching flameout, losing to the Mets in the 2000 NLCS, the '04 World Series sweep, Anthony Reyes never putting it together (even on another team where he could spite LaRussa and Duncan), the presence of lousy veterans like Miles, Suppan, MacDougal, Feliz, and Winn on the 2010 team, the trade of Brendan Ryan, the presence of Ryan Theriot, all the stupid crap LaRussa did over the years.

I'm not going to wish Albert ill. I expect his numbers will decline, because age always wins, but I hope he can maintain a high level for some time for the Angels. Maybe break some records. Sure, it'll be with the Angels, but he'll have started with the Cardinals, and that's not nothing. I'd like for him to be popular in Anaheim. Maybe he won't be for them what he could have been for St. Louis, but I don't buy some of this stuff I see about how he could have been a Musial-like figure for the franchise had he stayed. Fans today have short memories. The first time he really struggled, say lost a season to injury, or just had a bad year, there'd be fans who would turn on him. Fans are frequently "What have you done for me in the last five seconds?" Because we're lunatic assholes. I'm not going to boo him when the Cardinals play the Angels. I reserve my booing for players who sucked while they were Cardinals, like Jeff Brantley. I'm not saying I want the Angels to win 10 World Series with Albert. I'd rather the Cards win the next 10, or failing that, whatever team Brendan Ryan's playing for that year, since he missed out on this one. But if those options are a no-go, I wouldn't object to the Angels getting another championship.

I'm going to try and remember the good stuff about his eleven years here. The great spring training that got him on the Opening day roster his rookie year. The 3-HR game against the Cubs in '04. The 2004 NLCS, when he matched Beltran big hit for big hit. Crushing that Brad Lidge pitch in the '05 NLCS. Hitting a game-winning double off Lidge the next year (though I mostly remember Lidge dejectedly walking back to his dugout). His insane April and May in 2006. Scoring from second on a grounder to second against the Rockies. Being worth 25 runs above average at first in '07. Running with that gimpy stride, but trying to take the extra base like he was Vince Coleman. Coming back from a fractured wrist in less than 3 weeks. Playing with an elbow that needs Tommy John surgery for what, five years at least? The 3-HR game in the World Series. Playing second base in '08 because the team needed him to, or going back to third this year for the same reason.

People are saying his signing for the most money with the Angels proves he doesn't care about winning like he said. Bullshit. I don't believe for a second a guy who plays at positions more likely to cause him injury because it let the team put their best lineup out there doesn't care about winning. Maybe he did that for individual acclaim, but it helped the team, so it all leads to the same place. He was the best player the Cardinals have had in my lifetime. Even if he wasn't my favorite player ever, I'm still glad I got to see him play for the Cardinals for 11 years. if other people want to focus on the negative, that's their choice. I'm not going the bitter route, if for no other reason than I refuse to give the gloating fans of other teams the satisfaction.

* I don't think it's quite the same thing since in that case, Brendan still wanted to be here, and was traded due to some guys on the team being uptight jackasses, and then the team tried to sell us the notion they were better off with a clearly inferior ballplayer. In this case, Albert was free to go where he liked, the team made an offer, the Angels made one he liked better, and he went. Nobody was forced to leave.

** That was 2007, the year Carpenter's season ended on Opening Day, leaving Kip Wells as the No. 1 starter. The Cardinals had 3 relief pitchers who didn't suck (Izzy, Franklin, Russ Springer). Chris Duncan was the only guy to hit over 15 HRs besides Albert, and he didn't play the last month of the season. Scott Rolen slugged below .400. Juan Encarnacion's career was ended by a line drive to the face. Adam Kennedy was, before his season ending knee surgery, the worst starting 2nd baseman the team has had in my life. And still they won 78 games, in no small part because of Albert.

*** I know there's still rumors he's older than he says he is. Until someone shows me proof, I'll take him at his word. And no, Keith Law, Rob Neyer, and Dan LeBatard, "front office people around baseball believe it" isn't proof. Front office people can be dumbasses. If they weren't we wouldn't have nearly as many jokes about Barry Zito and Vernon Wells' ridiculous contracts.

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Wednesday, December 07, 2011

It's Hall Of Fame Voting Time

Not that I have a ballot, but let's pretend I did. Who am I voting for? Starting with returning candidates.

Barry Larkin: Yes. I'm always going to believe Ozzie was better, because even though Larkin was a much better hitter, Ozzie was so phenomenal at a critical defensive position that amplifies his value. But just because I don't think Larkin was as good as Ozzie Smith, doesn't mean Larkin shouldn't be in the Hall.

Jack Morris: I said No last year, with the understanding I wouldn't be angry if he was elected, as long as Blyleven got in first. Well, Blyleven's in, so if they want to vote Morris in that's fine.

Lee Smith: Still No.

Jeff Bagwell: I said Yes last year, I'm sticking with that.

Tim Raines: Yes.

Edgar Martinez: Yes.

Alan Trammell: Yes. Seems like Trammell's campaign gained a little steam last year. Is the backlash against suspected PED users funneling more votes to players believed to be clean? Unfortunately, I think it may be happening a little late. Trammell's got a lot of ground to make up, and only a few years left to do it in.

Larry Walker: I'm a little shaky on this with the Coors-inflated stats, but Yes.

Mark McGwire: A conditional Yes. If I end up with too many options, I'm shuffling him off.

Fred McGriff: No.

Don Mattingly: No.

Dale Murphy: No.

Rafael Palmerio: Like McGwire, a conditional Yes. I want to see what happens to his vote percentage this year. McGwire's has declined slowly. Will Palmiero's do the same?

Juan Gonzalez: No.

Man, the crop of new players sucks.

Bernie Williams: I don't think his offensive statistics are that superb. Admittedly, he's a CFer, and like SS, I'll cut them some slack with the bat if they're great with the glove. Unfortunately for Bernie, Baseball-reference has him as -12 wins below average defensively for his career. That's only about a -0.75 per season, but that's definitely not "great". No.

Vinny Castilla: No, his stats are Coors inflated like Walker's, but the results aren't nearly as good.

Javy Lopez: No.

Ruben Sierra: No.

Jeff Nelson: Um, hang on, who? *looks up player page* OK, I vaguely remember him. No.

Jeromy Burnitz: That's a joke, right? No.

Tim Salmon: Angels Hall of Fame? Sure. MLB Hall of Fame? No.

Mike Matheny: A guy worth 2.6 WAR for his entire career? No.

Edgardo Alfonzo: No, sorry.

OK, shit, this is taking too long. Why the hell did they nominate so many new, mediocre players? Let's do this:

Danny Graves, Scott Erickson, Tony Womack, Jeff Fassero, Phil Nevin, Carl Everett, Eric Young, Tim Worrell, Bill Mueller, Joe Randa, Jose Lima, Matt Lawton, Terry Mulholland, Rick Helling, Mike Remlinger, Felix Rodriguez? No.

I have a certain soft spot for Brad Radke, and especially Brian Jordan, so if I had some open spots, I'd vote for them, just so they each got at least one vote, and I only voted for eight guys, so. Yes!

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Sunday, December 04, 2011

Week 13 Is The Return Of The Kolb

I hadn't really thought of it a few minutes ago, but Arizona's now won 4 of their last 5, after beating the Dallas Cowboys 19-13 in overtime today. It doesn't make up for the 1-6 start, but it's a better stretch than I might have expected. There was some luck involved, since Dallas' kicker missed two field goals, when he'd hit 25 in a row or something. But they were like 53 and 49 yard tries, which are hardly chip shots. Of course, he hit the 49 yarder at the end of regulation to win it, but it wound up not counting because his own head coach called a time out. Then he missed the next try, allowing the game to go into overtime. Ha! I love that. Dallas shot itself in the foot. If I can't have Arizona whupping their asses, I'll take Dallas beating itself.

Patrick Peterson did not return a punt for a TD this week. He did get matched up against Dex Bryant, with mixed results. Bryant didn't have a big game, but he did have 86 yards on 8 receptions, with one TD. The Cardinals didn't force any turnovers, but neither did the Cowboys, which is a nice change of pace for the Cardinals offense. The Cardinals actually outrushed their opponents, getting over 100 yards, at a 4.1 ypc clip. The Cowboys mustered only 75 yards on the ground, at 3.8 ypc. Felix Jones had some good results, but the Cards' defense largely corraled recent rushing beast DeMarco Murray.

Kevin Kolb was back in the lineup, and he had a quietly effective game, kind of like the one Sam Bradford had against Arizona last week. 16 of 25 for 247 yards, with 1 TD. 52 of the yards came on the game-winning screen pass, so perhaps more credit there should go to LaRod Stephens-Howling and his legion of blockers on the play. Still, the QB has to get the ball there.

Both defenses collected 5 sacks. I'm not too surprised Kolb was sacked that often, since the Cowboys have a good pass rush (it's their secondary that blows), but I thought the Cowboys did a better job protecting Romo than that. So, credit to Arizona's pass rush.

Next up for the Cardinals are, aw crap. The 49ers?! Well, I guess this'll be a chance for Kolb to really prove something. Yeah, I know I pointed out the lack of turnovers, and Arizona won and all, but their offense is still hardly clicking on all cylinders. At least, I hope it isn't. 19 points would be a pretty lousy peak offensive performance. The Niners ate Skelton for lunch two games ago, so let's see what Kolb can manage against them. I certainly hope he can do better.

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Sunday, November 27, 2011

Week 12 Brings Another Win Over A Crappy Team

But hey, at least Arizona's occasionally beating crappy teams. I couldn't always count on them to do that even on those occasions when they were good, let alone when they were lousy, as they are now. Yes, Arizona beat the Rams 23-20. Didn't even need a 99-yard punt return TD in OT to do it. They did need an 80-yard punt return TD in the 3rd quarter, but baby steps.

Let's look at the good. Arizona had another punt return TD from Patrick Peterson, his 4th of the year, two of them against the Rams. His cornerbacking is still a work in progress, but he's got this punt return thing down.

Arizona forced two turnovers. While they didn't intercept Bradford (who had a quietly decent game, but nothing spectacular), they did recover two fumbles, one by Paris Lenon, the other by Sam Acho. Hey, maybe they're going to have enough good linebackers that running a 3-4 defense isn't an idiotic decision! Acho also sacked Bradford twice.

Beanie Wells! Franchise record 228 yards, breaking the mark set by LeShon Johnson against the Saints back in '96. Geez, I remember that game. Some of us fans wondered if LeShon could be a franchise back. Considering that was in Week 4, and Johnson still finished the year with less the 650 yards rushing, I think we should have known the answer was a resounding "No". Apparently the Cardinals did, since they drafted Leeland McElroy. So they identified the problem, but their response wasn't quite correct.

As for Wells, he did have a 71-yard carry, which certainly didn't hurt his yards per carry, but 8.4 ypc is good however you get it. What I also like is the team committed to the run. 38 rushes total, though the rest of the team had a less impressive 40 yards on 11 carries. But the team wisely stuck with it, even when they were losing, and kept feeding the hot hand (Wells). I don't know if this meant his knee has healed up, of if the Rams' run defense just went down the toilet. He wasn't able to do this 4 weeks ago against them, and I can't imagine the Rams were stacking the box, daring Skelton to pass any less than they did last time. Maybe the offensive line found its run blocking groove. I don't know.

The Cardinals won the time of possession battle. Woo! That never seems to happen!

The run defense showed up. Like I said above, Bradford had an alright day. Certainly better than Skelton, but not superb. Then again, his receiving corps is still mostly ass, so what should we expect? Last time they played, Stephen Jackson went for 130 yards on 29 carries. Today, they were able to limit him to 64 yards on 17 carries. And again, the Rams either lead, or were close through almost the entire game, so it isn't as though they had to abandon the run game. That's not a bad follow-up to limiting the Niners to 3.3 yards per carry last week (albeit over 49 carries, so the yards still piled up).

The bad would seem to be John Skelton. Maybe the offensive line's pass blocking, since the Rams recorded 3 sacks, but maybe those are Skelton's fault, too. He did throw 2 INTs. He did complete just 12 of his 23 passes, for only 114 yards. Still, his 30 QB rating is better than last week's 10.5, right? Ugh, it's still terrible.

I don't know. Skelton's 5-3 and as starter, but his numbers don't suggest he's the key to victory. He once again failed to stake some sort of claim to the starting QB job, this time against a much weaker opponent than the one he faced last week. At the same time, Kolb can't seem to get healthy enough to get back on the field, and like I've said before, he wasn't setting the world on fire when he was playing. Hopefully he'll be back in time to take his turn against San Francisco (at home), and prove he can do better than Skelton did. Shouldn't be hard.

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Monday, November 21, 2011

Week 11 Douses The QB Controversy

People are bailing off the John Skelton bandwagon like it's on fire and headed for a tanker truck. And he did play like shit yesterday in Arizona's 23-7 loss to the 49ers. Skelton's QB rating was 10.5, and he threw 3 INTs. Ouch. Whether it was an injury or ineffectiveness, I'm not sure, but he was replaced in the 2nd half by Rich Bartel, who managed to throw a TD pass to Fitzgerald in the 4th quarter. watch as fans now load onto the "Rich Bartel should start!" bandwagon.

The Cardinals' running game didn't do much, though it seems to be a lack of opportunities. Even if you set aside Chester Taylor's lone carry, which went for 34 yards, Beanie Wells averaged 4.1 yards per carry. As that was only 8 carries, it only totaled 33 yards. Why didn't they run more? They were only down 9-0 at the half, and the 49ers didn't score a TD until halfway through the 3rd quarter. I do not understand why they won't run more on those occasions when it's actually working. If they're worried about Beanie's health, then use Taylor more. The guy has a career 4.1 yards per carry average! And he's a receiving threat out of the backfield! He might not know all the plays, but he ought to know enough of them! Give him the damn ball! I mean, cripes, they lost the time of possession battle nearly 3-1! The offense had the ball for less than 16 minutes! The Cardinals defense is playing better, but you can't put that kind of pressure on them and expect it to end well!

Look at the 49ers. They only average 3.3 yards per carry, but they still ran it 49 times. Even if they weren't having big success, they kept at it. The defense didn't do so well at containing Michael Crabtree, but they at least gave it a good shot on run defense. And the special teams blocked two field goals, so credit to them.

In theory, Kolb will be back for the upcoming game with the Rams. Now that the clamor for Skelton has cooled, it'd be a good time for Kolb to win some games. Maybe try throwing more TDs than INTs. Skelton certainly blew this opportunity to show he's the QB the franchise should throw their weight behind, but that doesn't mean Kolb has demonstrated he's that guy, either. All he has going for him is the team gave him a big contract after trading specifically for him. Whoopededoo.

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Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Season In Review - Bench Players

I'm starting to regret this. It's been more work than I expected. So let's wrap things up.

Colby Rasmus: Rasmus was traded a few weeks into July. He already seemed in danger of losing his starting job, as he'd been struggling and LaRussa was giving Jay more run in center. All told, he was worth 1.1 WAR for StL, which is pretty close to Jay's 1.3. Rasmus had a poor defensive showing, which is disappointing. Maybe he'll find success next season with Toronto, but it didn't happen this year.

Ryan Theriot: Theriot led the team in innings at SS for the season, and his 0.0 WAR (or 0.7 if you prefer Fangraphs) makes him the Cardinals' worst starting shortstop since Tripp Cromer in 1995. And keep in mind, Theriot elevated his value by playing a halfway decent second base. He was 3 runs above average in 190 innings there, which somewhat offsets his -8 in 755 innings at SS. Looking strictly at his performance there, he's worse than Cromer.

For the record, Brendan Ryan was worth 2.7 WAR for the Mariners this season. Great move, Cardinals! The good news is they show no sign of planning to bring Tally Ho back next season. He's like Schumaker: defensively inept, with no power or ability to draw walks. On top of that, he's a lousy baserunner. Truly a waste of a roster spot.

Daniel Descalso: Descalso played allover the infield, though judging by B-R's numbers, not very well anywhere. He's slightly below average in 80 innings at 2nd, a -5 in 666 innings at 3rd, and slightly above in 97 innings at short. The good news is, he was only 24, so he still hasn't reached his prime. He should get better, and he's already more useful than the chump I discussed right before him (1.2 WAR). He doesn't hit for a lot of power (his ISO was .089), but he can draw some walks (benefiting from hitting 8th), and like I said, he can still improve. I'd be fine with platooning him at 2nd next year with Punto, since the free agent market looks pretty lousy.

Allen Craig: Craig missed a couple of months with I believe a fractured kneecap. Even so, he was almost a 3 win player (2.9 WAR), and some of that was even defensive value (0.8 dWAR), which surprises me. Sure, I knew he was an improvement over Berkman in right, but I'm not sure Mickey Mantle's corpse wouldn't show more range than Berkman. But he was average in an extremely limited (4 innings) stint at first, and ditto at 2nd (41 innings). He didn't do so hot at 3rd, but we're talking 11 innings. All told, he was 8 runs above average in about 300 innings in the corner outfield spots. Matheny shouldn't try using him in center, though.

Craig had a .917 OPS, with a .555 slugging. he might want to show a little more patience (15 walks in 219 PAs), but he's no worse off than Freese or Jay in that regard, and he's a better hitter than those two. Heck, he was even a perfect 5 for 5 stealing bases. I'm not sure where he'll get time next season if the Cards resign Pujols, barring injury. Albert, Holliday, and Berkman will have his spots covered, and I can't argue for benching one of them regularly for Craig. If they can't resign Albert, shift Berk to first and put Craig in right. It's still an overall offensive downgrade, but maybe the defensive upgrade in right can compensate. Plus, the money not spent on Albert might net them an awesome SS upgrade.

Nick Punto: Too bad Punto couldn't stay healthy. This was far and away the best offensive showing of his career. His previous best OPS in a season where he had at least 100 PAs was .726 (with a 96 OPS+) in 2008. He had an .809 and 127 this year. It's doubtful he can replicate it next year, but I'd still like to have him back for his defensive versatility, and he knows how to take a walk, which doesn't hurt. I mean, he was worth 1.5 WAR in a year where he collected less than 170 PAs.

Tyler Greene: Greene was the biggest loser from the Cardinals' late season charge. It was the perfect excuse for LaRussa to give him no playing time. Which is why, after his September callup, he got only 2 plate appearances, plus a few pinch running opportunities. To his credit, he got hits both times he came to bat, which got his average over .200. He also led the team in stolen bases, going a perfect 11-for-11.

I'd be fine giving Greene a crack at the starting SS job next season, but Mozeliak's likely negotiating tactics aside, I doubt it's going to happen.

Gerald Laird: Laird did OK. Not great, but for a Cardinals backup catcher, a .660 OPS is pretty good. Certainly a step up for the Gary Bennett/Einar Diaz days. I'm pretty indifferent to the idea of bringing him back. Though you never know, Matheny might prize rest for his starting catcher more than LaRussa did. The issue would be getting Molina to go along with it.

Tony Cruz: Cruz didn't get much play once Laird came back, only 12 PAs after the end of July. Still, he did post a .672 OPS in the 72 PAs he got this year. His walk rate is about the same as Laird's (they each average 1 walk every 12 PAs), but Laird showed much more power, with an ISO of .126 vs. Cruz' .076. Defensively, the samples are too small to draw much of a conclusion. Laird seems slightly better, but Cruz has a better percentage of base stealers thrown out. Keep in mind, we're talking 2 out of 4, versus 4 out of 20. Very limited samples.

Corey Patterson: Ugh, do I have to? His OPS was .424. He posted a -0.4 WAR, though his dWAR was +0.1. He struck out 12 times in 56 PAs, with only 2 walks. He hopefully will never play for the Cardinals again.

Mark Hamilton: Hamilton had a little play in July (11 PAs). It was his best month, with 3 hits, including a double. I don't see that the Cards have a place for him, with or without Albert. He can really only competently play first, and even if you remove Albert and Berkman, there's still Craig. Not to mention Matt Adams down in AA.

Shane Robinson: He was called up late in the year. He had 8 PAs, and got on base once, with a walk. I think he was mostly a defensive replacement.

Adron Chambers: Chambers was used even more frequently as a defensive replacement, seeing as he was in 18 games, but only received 8 PAs. He did manage 3 hits, including a triple. He also got some use in the postseason, again, mostly as a defensive replacement for Berkman, but he did get 5 chances at-bat. I wouldn't mind seeing him as the other back-up outfielder alongside Craig next year (assuming they resign Albert, otherwise it'll be Chambers and someone else, since Craig'll be starting in RF).

OK, that's it. Now I have to figure what to move on to next.

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Monday, November 14, 2011

Season In Review - Starting Position Players

So the Cardinals named Matheny their new manager. We'll see how that goes. At least Mozeliak knows he has the power now. Before, LaRussa held the whip hand, since DeWitt basically said LaRussa couldn't/wouldn't be fired. Now, if Mozeliak brings somebody up from the minors to see what he can do, said player might actually get some playing time. Anyway, today is the 8 starting position players.

Yadier Molina: I noted halfway that Molina was hitting for far more power than usual. He not only maintained that in the second half, he improved upon it. His previous best isolated power had been .106 in '05. At the end of June, it was .133. He ended the season at .160. Supposedly he was hitting more fly balls, which would lead to more extra base hits than ground balls, but didn't hurt his average as I would expect (as fly balls rarely turn into hits). Though Molina wouldn't get as many hits off ground balls as the average player, given how slow he is. Anyway, he set a career high for OPS, at .814, the highest mark since Ted Simmons in 1980. So in terms of WAR, this was far and away his best season. Most of his 3.9 WAR is offense, but he did generate 0.7 with his glove, and catcher defense is still tricky. He did only throw out 29% of baserunners, but I don't know whether that's on him, or if it's that pitchers not named Carp and Lohse were lousy at holding runners.

In the postseason his power slumped a bit, but he maintained a .360 OBP, so I'm not going to complain about that.

Albert Pujols: Albert came back from that injured wrist in a little over 2 weeks, and proceeded to hit like he pretty much always has. Really, he did that from the end of May on until the end. He did hit into a lot of double plays, but so did everyone else on the team. I'm not too concerned about his .299 batting average, but the .366 OBP worries me. His walk rate's been dropping, and it seems to be because he's grown more impatient. In 2010, the gap between AVG and OBP was .102, this year, only .067. The two years before that it was .105 and .116, so 2011 is more out of line with past performance than 2010.

So this was his worst year ever, and he was still a 5.4 win player, and 0.9 of that was defense. I'm always happy when he has good defensive stats, because I like him more as a player when he seems like more of a complete player. I'm not a big fan of guys who can only hit home runs, and do nothing else, and fortunately, that isn't Albert. He didn't lead the team in stolen bases this year, but he was 9 out of 10 on his attempts. He's almost certainly too aggressive for how slow he is, and the team probably shouldn't be letting him decide when to take extra bases, in terms of having the best chance to win, but I do like the aggressiveness, from a strict enjoyment standpoint. Too bad the team doesn't have more fast players with that style.

The postseason was very similar to the regular season, though Albert posted an 1.155 OPS in the playoffs. But he seemed very feast or famine. Either he's killing the Brewers and Rangers single-handed, or he's doing nothing whatsoever. He did draw 12 walks in about 70 plate appearances, so that's good, even if several of them were intentional.

Skip Schumaker: Sigh. Skip is now one of only two players to be the starting 2nd baseman for 3 years during LaRussa's tenure with the Cards. The other was Fernando Vina. Sadly, Skip isn't anywhere near as good as Vina was. He did improve on last season, as he was worth 0.6 WAR, up from 0.1 a year ago. Hmm, they must have reevaluated his defense, as it used to be 0.4. Anyway, that's still shitty return for an $2 million+ investment by the team. But supposedly the team loves him, so they still might bring him back this offseason. Crap. They don't need him. There's nothing he does they can't get out of Descalso, Punto, or Adron Chambers, for less money. His power's evaporating, as are his walks, and he's not a good enough defensive player anywhere to make up for that.

Rafael Furcal: Furcal showed up in late July, when the team finally realized (or admitted) Theriot was not the answer. In about 2 months, he was worth 1.4 WAR, and was by some measure slightly above average defensively. By others, not so much. His OBP is a bit lower than I'd like to see in a leadoff hitter, but supposedly some of that was bad luck on balls in play, and if he was hitting better than .255, his OBP would be higher than .315. I was hoping for more of a speed threat, but the 7 HRs were an unexpected bonus.

He really struggled in the postseason, with a .244 OBP and a .325 SLG. Not sure what to attribute that to. Bad luck? Being overwhelmed by the quality of the pitchers? Well, that would only explain struggling against the Phillies. I'm deeply ambivalent about bringing Furcal back. If he wants a two-year contract, pass. He's moving into his mid-30s, and he hasn't shown any consistent ability to stay healthy. I'd rather take my chances with Clint Barmes, or Tyler Greene. Mozeliak's said much the same thing about Greene, though that could just be contract negotiation posturing to try and drive Furcal's demands down.

David Freese: Freese narrowly edged out Descalso as starting 3rd baseman, 674 innings to 666. Which is fine, as Freese rates slightly better than Descalso at third, being about 2 runs better than average, versus Descalso's -5. Course, third is not Descalso's natural position. Even missing 1/3 of the season, Freese was worth 1.8 WAR. Then he stepped it up in the playoffs, hitting .397, with 7 HRs, a slugging of almost .800, and even drawing 7 walks. He only drew 24 the entire regular season, or 1 less than Punto did in 200 fewer PAs.

If he's actually developing some patience, that'd be good, because thus far his OBP has been heavily leaning on his batting average, which has been heavily reliant on good results on balls in play, which might not last. All his power seems to be opposite field, which is odd, but if he can make it work for him, then I guess it's OK. Truthfully, I wouldn't mind trading Freese for a young 2nd baseman or center fielder, because I'd like to see Matt Carpenter and his +.400 AAA OBP in the starting lineup, but I doubt it'll happen. Freese is the playoff hero, and as old as he is, with his injury history, I doubt anyone would sacrifice anything good for him. If only Al Davis were alive, and running a baseball team. You could always count on Al to overpay for guys who had one good game in the Super Bowl. Maybe he'd do the same in baseball.

Matt Holliday: Holliday's string of injuries continued into the second half of the season. Only instead of appendectomies, he was injuring his wrist on practice swings, and having insects get stuck in his ear. As a result, this year wasn't quite as productive as last year, but Holliday was the 3rd most valuable position player, with a 4.1 WAR, and rated as exactly average defensively. He drew a decent number of walks (his gap between OBP and AVG was .092), but struggled a bit when he played in the postseason. His OBP is great (.419), but the power wasn't there (.412 SLG), much like Molina. Except it wasn't that much of a surprise with Yadi, since he'd demonstrated unusual power this season. Holliday's lack of oomph was concerning, but it's probably just the wrist thing, and now he has all offseason to heal up. And since he no longer has an appendix, he won't have to worry about it causing problems. Might want to keep an eye on his gall bladder, though.

Jon Jay: Jay became the starter after Rasmus was traded, though Colby still lead the team in innings in center at the end of the year. Jay had a couple of productive games in the postseason, but overall had an OPS below .500. Ouch. For the season as a whole, he posted a .768 OPS, which is down a little from last year's .780, but still surprisingly close to his AAA .781 OPS. And he really didn't fall off after becoming the starter. He had a poor August (.661 OPS), but no worse than his June (.651), and not too far behind April (.691). he had a .759 in July, and a .793 in September.

He could stand to walk more. In 503 PAs, he collected 28 walks, which is one less than Theriot in 20 more PAs (though Theriot undoubtedly earned some of his from hitting in front of the pitcher). Jay also needs to either improve his base stealing, or stop it entirely. He was only 6 out of 13, this year. Interestingly, he rated below average on defense in both corner spots, but not in center, where he was just barely above average. And center was his primary position, so to the extent the numbers tell us anything, those would be most representative. Not sure what to make of that. At any rate, I haven't heard anything suggesting the Cardinals are against going into next season with Jay in center. I might like someone a little more defensively excellent, preferably with some speed, to offset what looks to be another season of Berkman in right, but I'm not dead set against Jay. If he can keep producing as he has so far, he's an acceptable option, provided the rest of the team does their job. He's not really a difference maker.

Lance Berkman: Well, Berkman sure showed me. I figured last year was the beginning of the end, turns out it was just a injury thing. He was second on the team in WAR with 5.2, and that's with his defense costing him 0.7 WAR. Which isn't ideal, but the Cardinals knew what they were getting into when they put him in right field, and if he produces offensively like he did, it's worth it. He was second on the team amongst qualifiers in batting average, first in on-base percentage, first in slugging, and thus first in OPS. He hit into a third the double plays of Yadi or Holliday (7 vs. 21), and a quarter of the number Albert did. The only thing he didn't do well was steal bases (2 out of 8), and honestly, what the heck are they thinking having Berkman try and steal bases?

He didn't do quite as well in the playoffs. The average went up 12 points, and the OBP held essentially steady, but the slugging fell to .438, an almost 110 point drop. Was he getting tired after a season of roaming the outfield, was it the pitchers, or was it just because it got cold? The ball typically doesn't fly as far in the cold, since it's thicker than it is in hot weather, and it was getting kind of chilly by the end of October in St. Louis. That wouldn't explain the games in Texas or Milwaukee's dome, though, and it wasn't cold every day in St. Louis. Course, we're also talking a very small sample, 18 games and about 70 at-bats, so perhaps just a bad stretch. It was still an awesome season, and like with Yadi and Holliday, I can't complain about the OBP.

Sometime coming up, the bench position players. There's a few guys who didn't play after June, but there are plenty of others to contend with.

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Sunday, November 13, 2011

Has Week 10 Ignited A QB Controversy?

The Arizona Cardinals beat the Eagles, 21-17. Yeah, the Eagles were without DeSean Jackson, but that's their own damn fault. They benched him for completely missing the Saturday meeting. So maybe it's Jackson's own damn fault. At any rate, Vick went 16-34, with 2 INTs, and had at least one other interception nullified by a ticky-tack penalty.

On the Cards' side, John Skelton had some good and some bad. On the good side, he avoided some sacks, threw for 315 yards and 3 TDs, and lead a game-tying 4th quarter drive, and then the game winning 4th quarter drive. On the bad side, he was still sacked 4 times, completed barely more than 50% of his passes (21 of 40), and threw 2 INTs in his half of the field, one of which was returned for a touchdown. He also had a couple of passes to Fitzgerald tipped, which Fitzgerald managed to come down with, despite the Eagles all around.

So it isn't as though Skelton's playing like Kurt Warner, or even Good Jake Plummer. And the Eagles are a massively disappointing team, though I did not know before today there defensive coordinator was formerly their offensive line coach. What the hell was Andy Reid thinking with that one? Still, the Cardinals didn't run the ball terribly well for the second consecutive game. They did at least keep trying, at 29 carries for 88 yards, though it drop to 25 and 73 if you take Skelton's scrambles out. But I appreciate the commitment to the run as an attempt to take some pressure off Skelton. Also, Feely missed two field goals which could have made things easier for Arizona. The indisputable fact is the Cardinals are 2-0 this year when Skelton starts, 4-2 for his entire career.

Certainly that isn't all him. The defense did well against the Eagles air attack today (though not their running game, as the Eagles averaged almost 7 yards a carry on 24 carries, and yeah, Vick's responsible for 8 carries and 79 yards, but that still leaves 16 carries and 87 yards for Lesean McCoy and Co.), and it was defense and special teams that won the day last week. And of course there was Jay Feely's 22 consecutive points game against Denver last year. Whether it's the level of competition, or the rest of the team rising to the occasion, they do manage to pull out some victories when Skelton's under center.

So, is there an issue at QB? I doubt the Cardinals are ready to take the starting job away from a healthy Kolb, though some of the fans certainly are. I figure his job's safe if only because the Cardinals made a point to trade for him, then give him a fat contract. It would look pretty silly to do that, then hand the job to a guy they already had on the roster. Money talks. I'm still OK with that. Whisenhunt said when they drafted Skelton that they saw him as a project. Someone with all the physical tools, but who would need a couple of years to adjust to the level of play in the NFL, compared to what he faced at Fordham. Kolb isn't quite that raw, but his starting NFL experience is pretty limited, 14 starts thus far, 7 before this season. So really, as long as one of them is getting some experience, I'm OK with that. Given the amount they sunk into Kolb, I'd prefer they start him if only so they can more quickly figure out whether he was a mistake. So if he's healthy, let him play. If he's not, then keep Skelton in there. See if he can cut down on the mistakes, improve the completion percentage, or both.

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Friday, November 11, 2011

Season In Review - Relief Pitchers

Credit to the bullpen. If they hadn't stopped blowing ass, the Cardinals wouldn't have made the playoffs. And if they hadn't largely maintained that level of non-ass blowing, the Cardinals wouldn't have won the World Series. Because Carpenter sure as hell couldn't win four games out of seven on his own.

Fernando Salas - I said at the halfway point that Salas might not be the closer of the future, and that appears to be the case. LaRussa turned to Motte as his closer starting around September, and Salas' role shifted. Initially he seemed to be more of a set-up guy, but in the postseason, he became the guy LaRussa went to first. Salas would typically try to get through 2 innings, usually after the starter had failed to pitch more than 4. Up until the World Series that was working pretty well. In the first 2 rounds, he threw 9.7 innings, and surrendered 2 runs. In the Series, it was 5 runs (3 earned) in 3.7 innings. Maybe he was getting tired. He was approaching 90 innings by the end.

Salas maintained a WHIP below 1 for the season, 2nd best amongst Cards' relievers (and the best mark is Dotel's, who threw less than a third the innings Salas did). His HR rate's a little higher than some of the others, but he averaged a K per inning, and a 3.57/1 K/BB ratio. I imagine he can close if needed, but I'd like to see him used in whatever role is most useful on a given day next year, though I doubt the new manager will be that flexible.

Jason Motte - Motte took over the closer role from Salas late in the year. Prior to that, his role had shifted over the season, but just before he'd become more of a traditional "fireman", brought in whenever LaRussa absolutely needed a rally squashed, regardless of inning. Guess being able to throw in the high-90s has its advantages. It's interesting that his K rate is lower than Salas' (8.3 vs. 9.0), though K/BB ratio is better (3.94 vs. 3.57). Going by B-R's WAR, Salas was the 3rd most valuable pitcher (after Carp and Lohse), and Motte the 4th. I believe Fangraphs has it differently, in part because they like Garcia a lot more (I believe they have him as a 3 win pitcher, and Carp at 5 WAR). At any rate, Motte and Salas were the two key performers in the 'pen this season, as they were pretty much the only relievers on the major league roster all season (though Salas didn't arrive until mid-April).

I do wonder if Motte's 0.3/9 IP HR rate is sustainable, and if not, how much that will affect his value next season.

Mitch Boggs - Boggs never did seem to regain TLR's trust. Then again, his performance didn't really merit it. In the first three months, his K/BB ratio was 3.3. In the last three months, 1.36. That's Westbrookian. It seemed as though he was struggling with some injuries during the season, and I don't know if that robbed him of velocity, control, both, or neither. He's always had some control problems, at least as a starter, so it isn't entirely surprising that would persist into his career as a closer, but I'm not sure why it seems to have flared up so severely in the latter half of the season. Though we are dealing with small sample sizes, and some of his misfortune may have been bad luck. His babip for July was .343, and it was .354 in August, though without looking at how many line drives he was surrendering, I can't say if that's a fluke or not. I'd still like to have him around next season, as a cheap mop-up guy with the stuff to be more useful if he can harness it.

Trever Miller - Miller went to Toronto in the Rasmus trade, then wound up in Boston at some point, though eh threw less than 10 innings overall in the AL. In those last weeks before his trade, he continued to be generally ineffective. 6 appearances, 1.3 innings, 6 hits, 1 walk, 2 Ks, 1 run allowed. Or he was charged with one run anyway. In three of the appearances, he retired no batters, which suggests he was brought in to get out a lefty, and failed. A 50% failure rate is no good for a LOOGY. I'm not sure why he went downhill so abruptly, but he was addition by subtraction.

Lance Lynn - Lynn was in the bullpen from late June to early August. Then he hurt an oblique and missed the remainder of the regular season. Fortunately, he was ready in time for the playoffs. He pitched well (or had some good fortune) in the NLCS, but was smacked around a little by the Rangers. Which is nothing to be ashamed of, so were most of the pitchers on the staff.

As a reliever, he threw 24.3 innings, posted a WHIP below 1, with almost 12 Ks per 9 IP, and K/BB ratio of 4 to 1. Even so, I still wouldn't mind seeing him in the AAA rotation next year. He may be more likely to have value as a reliever, but he has greater potential value as a starter. Plus, I figure someone in that rotation is going to get hurt at some point, with Wainwright returning from Tommy John, and Carpenter and Garcia having both just set career highs in innings.

Eduardo Sanchez - Sanchez was on the DL at the halfway point, and came back in September. he pitched in one game, the second to last game of the year, when Westbrook crapped his pants, and LaRussa had to haul out anyone he could to get through the game. Which included Edwin Jackson, and also Sanchez, who threw 1.3 innings, struck out 2, and allowed no baserunners.

Sanchez is really exciting. He still has control issues (4.8 BB/9 IP), but he allowed fewer hits than walks, and K'd 10.5 batters per 9 innings pitched. He might have the best raw stuff of any of the young righties, if, like Boggs, he can just control it more effectively. I'm looking forward to his presence in the bullpen next season.

Octavio Dotel - Like I mentioned above, Dotel lead the relievers in WHIP, with a 0.851 in the 24.7 innings he threw for St. Louis, after being acquired in the Rasmus trade. he did continue to demonstrate that he should not face left-handed batters. Against righties, he allowed an OPS of .410, but lefties racked up an .845. Those numbers are for the entire season, not just his StL stint, but TLR seemed to get smarter about not using him against lefties as time went on. In the postseason, he pitched fairly well, allowing 4 runs in 10.3 innings, but with a 7 to 1 K/BB ratio, even better than his regular season 6.4/1 mark.

All that being said, I'd prefer the team not offer him arbitration (they already declined his option). He's Type A, so any team that signs him surrenders 2 draft picks. I can't see any team (maybe Houston, Ed Wade seems pretty stupid), doing that, so I imagine Dotel would accept arbitration. He can't make less than 80% of what he made this year, so it'd be at least 2, 2.25 million for essentially a ROOGY. And one thing the Cards don't lack is power righthanded relief arms.

Marc Rzepczynski - Also acquired in the Rasmus trade. Scrabble didn't pitch as well as Dotel, with a WHIP over 1.45 in his 22 innings. His K rate was close to Dotel's (11.1/9), but he walked almost a batter every other inning, so his K/BB ratio is only 2.55. There are rumors he was getting to wound up, to the point team officials were starting to worry about him, and maybe that was a problem. I suppose he'd never been in a playoff hunt in Toronto, or maybe it's hard going from the Blue Jays' clubhouse to the Cardinals (Note: I have no idea what Toronto's clubhouse is like, or the Cardinals' for that matter). He did alright in the postseason; nothing great, but he recorded some key outs. I'm fine with him being in the 'pen next year, though it looks like he's the only long-term return the team will get for Rasmus, at least until the arbitration thing plays out, and we see if they get some picks. Well, it was a shirt-term deal, anyway.

Brian Tallet - Also traded to Toronto, pitched once there, with poor results. The Cards used him just once in July. He recorded two outs, but allowed two hits and a walk, and two runs were charged to him. Not sorry to see him go.

Arthur Rhodes - Rhodes was claimed off waivers in August, after the Rangers dumped him, for generally being terrible. He was a mixed bag for the Cardinals. In 19 appearances, he threw less than 9 innings, which isn't surprising, since he's a LOOGY. But like Miller, he occasionally failed to get that one guy out. 4 times in 19 appearances to be exact. Which is better than Miller's July ratio, to be sure, but still a little irritating.

True to regular season form, he threw 2.7 postseason innings, but spread it out across 8 games. He didn't allow any runs, though, and only one baserunner total, so I can't complain about the results.

Brandon Dickson - Dickson made two relief appearances in July, and another in September. All told, they encompassed 5 innings, and he allowed 3 hits, 2 walks, and K'd 3. He also made 1 start, against Milwaukee, on short rest (?!), and didn't make it out of the 4th. So perhaps it was a glorified bullpen start. Dickson spent most of the year in the AAA rotation, and as he didn't particularly distinguish himself, I figure that's where he should start next year as well. Maybe he can be the first option if Lynn is a reliever next year.

Raul Valdes - Valdes pitched once for StL just before the halfway mark, then 6 more times in July. In September, he was a Yankee, so who knows. In his 6 July appearances, he threw 4.3 innings, allowed 5 hits, 4 walks, 4 Ks, and 2 runs. So nothing special. He got in trouble, but either worked through it, or was bailed out by subsequent relievers.

Maikel Cleto - Cleto pitched once in the second half of the season, throwing a scoreless inning. Other than that, he spent most of the second half at AAA, as a starter. Mixed results, with his 4.29 ERA, and 5.4 BB/9, but before this year he'd never pitched above high A. This season he pitched there, at AA, AAA, and in the majors. I guess we'll see if it's something he can build on.

P.J. Walters - Walters pitched 4 times for StL in July, before heading to Toronto. He had one bad appearance, but it was pretty bad. 3 hits, 1 walk, 4 runs (on a grand slam, I believe), while recording only one out. Too bad. Before that he'd thrown 3 innings, and allowed only 1 walk, while striking out 3. Toronto used him once, to throw a scoreless inning against Baltimore. Other than that, he spent the season in both teams' AAA affiliates as a starter. It didn't go all that well in Memphis, it went horribly in Vegas.

Pitchers, complete! Sometime soon, position players! Maybe just starters, then bench guys. I don't know.

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