Conference Finals!

Spurs/Grizzlies Game 1 is set to start in 20 minutes, so I better get on with this.

Miami vs. Indiana: I correctly pegged the Heat as winning in 5 games. On the other side of the coin, I got the number of games right, but backed the wrong team. Is this a lesson to always bet on defense?

I don't think it much matters here. Miami beat Indiana last year, while missing Chris Bosh for a portion of the series. While the Pacers' starting unit was actually able to outscore the Heat, the Pacers were torched any time their bench got involved. Problem is, the Pacers have not significantly improved their bench since last year. Certainly not enough to make up for the fact Miami does have Bosh, and are, on the whole, a better team than last year. I expect that the Hibbert/West frontcourt duo will give Miami some trouble, but those two can't be on the court all the time (especially if the refs are babying the Heat), and when they aren't I expect the Heat will take the pacers apart. Heat in 5.

San Antonio vs. Memphis:  So I was right last round, I wasn't giving Memphis enough credit, they won one game faster than I predicted. On the other side, the Spurs took an extra game to dispatch Golden State. I guess they need more time to figure out the proper counter. Now they have to face an entirely different challenge.

This one's trickier. The Grizz beat the Spurs in the playoffs two years ago. I would Memphis is even more comfortable in their style of play now than they were then. At the same time, this is the Spurs, who seem more adept at shifting styles to meet challenges than practically any other team. What's more, I think Tiago Splitter is considerably improved from where he was two years ago, so the Spurs can actually bring two big men to the party who might be able to play Gasol/Z-Bo to a draw. If the Spurs can manage that, I like their chances.

The thing is, I'm not sure they can do that. Splitter's better, but he's not on Marc Gasol's level, and I'm not sure Duncan, at his age, can match Zach Randolph every game. I don't really think Memphis gains much by slowing things down, since the Spurs have proven quite content to slow it down and grind themselves. However, I think Memphis is just a little better suited for it now than San Antonio.

Look, whichever team I pick, I'm going to end up fearing I'm not giving the other enough credit. Let's call it Memphis in 7.

Baseball At The Quarter Mark

We have another day until the Western Conference Finals start, so hopefully the Pacers will finish off the Knicks. In the meantime, the baseball season has reached the one-quarter mark, so it's time to look in on the Cardinals.

To my surprise, they're in first place in the NL Central, with the best record in the league. The first place thing, doesn't necessarily mean much. They've been in first place at the end of April for 6 consecutive seasons now, and only won the division once (2009) in the previous five. That's that whole bit about baseball being a marathon, not a sprint. Cincy and Pittsburgh are each only 2 games back, so I'd expect them to stay close all season, even if they don't catch up.

As to the Cardinals, their offense has been fairly middling. While they are 4th in runs scored (and runs per game), it's due to a probably unsustainable run of good hitting with men in scoring position. They're 3rd in batting average, but only 5th in OBP, and 9th in slugging. If you're going to be good in one of the two, it's better for it to be on-base percentage, but they need to crank up the extra-base hits. 7th in doubles, tied for 12th in triples, 13th in home runs.They're dead last in stolen bases too (though also dead last in being caught stealing), so they aren't making up the difference there.

For most of the first month, the Cards had 4 hitters they could rely on: Molina, Matt Holliday, Carlos Beltran, and Matt Carpenter. Currently, their OPSes all reside somewhere in the 800s. If he could get in the lineup, you could add Matt Adams to the list. Unfortunately, injuries (and Adams' defensive limitations) have held him to 37 plate appearances. But he has 3 HRs, and a slugging of .824 in those 37 PAs. Allen Craig and Jay have started to heat up (or get some better luck on balls in play). Craig's up to .796, and Jay's at .763. Somewhat surprising is that Jay is currently third on the team in home runs with 4, behind Holliday (6), and Beltran (10). Currently, there are 5 Cards with slugging percentages between .415 and .460. Matt Carpenter's isolated power is .152, which is better than I'd have expected from him. Holliday's is at .169, but he's notorious for being a slow starter. As I mentioned, Craig's picking up so I'm not too worried about him. Molina does concern me, since his ISO is only .113 so far.  That's pretty far down from the .160 and .186 of 2011 and 2012. It's still above any of his years prior to that, but I had kind of hoped the increased power of the last two years (averaged 30 doubles, 18 HRs vs. 19 and 6.5 from '05-'10) was a permanent fixture. Hopefully the ball will start traveling for him as the weather warms up.

On the other hand, at least Molina's being somewhat productive. Freese has been a disaster so far. His OPS is still below .600, he's striking out in 23% of his PAs, has a grand total of 4 extra base hits, and has fewer total bases than Matt Adams in about 3 times as many PAs. Now they could just plate Carpenter at 3rd, but that means putting Descalso in at 2nd, and he's been. . . well about the same. His OPS is .562, 3 points better than Freese's. That's kind of the problem. Carpenter can only play one position at a time, so the Cardinals need at least one other competent player to man the other position. Currently, neither Freese nor Dirty Dan qualify. Of course, Descalso, is merely fitting in with everyone on the bench not named Matt Adams. Shane Robinson has an OPS+ of 57 (despite an OPS over 20 points worse than Descalso's). Wigginton's is 33, Tony Cruz' 23. Robinson has at least managed 10 walks in his 44 PAs (somehow), giving him a .364 OBP. Too bad he's only managed 6 hits, all singles.

As for Kozma, a few weeks ago, his OPS was in the .650s. It was actually a bit higher than Craig's. At the time, I considered that to be about the best I could have hoped for from the Kozmanaut. Since then it's dropped to .636. His power has vanished (if it ever really existed), and I would guess most of his 12 walks are a result of hitting in front of the pitcher. Now normally, I wouldn't care as long as his defense was OK. And according to Baseball-Reference, he's been worth a couple of runs over an average SS already. But with the current ineptitude of Freese/Descalso, to say nothing of what happens when Matheny spot starts Wigginton or Robinson, they need Kozma to do a little more. It's one thing for him to be the only hole in the lineup, it's quite another for him to be one of two. Or three.

Speaking of defense, I'm pleasantly surprised to see Carpenter being rated as above average at 2nd. In theory, it was going to be easier for him than Schumaker, if only because he's used to playing in the infield. Still, it's a shift to a harder position, so there was room for concern. It's nice to see it working out in the early going. I hope Descalso gets his glove work back on track, since that's really the only thing he has going for him. Beyond that, Holliday and Craig are both doing alright in LF and at first, respectively, but Jay and Beltran are disasters so far in center and right. Beltran I maybe should have expected, given his age and past knee problems. Jay on the other hand, I thought had done pretty well last year. Maybe it's just the variability of defensive statistics. Even one season's worth are necessarily indicative, and this is a fraction of a season.

What's keeping them up is their pitching. First in runs per game and ERA, first in complete games, complete game shutouts, and team shutouts (they have 7 of those, no one else has more than 5). They've allowed the fewest home runs, the fewest walks, issued the fewest intentional walks. I'm not sure if that last one is relevant, but strictly from an aesthetic point of view, I approve of the Cardinals not handing out free bases. They have the 4th most strikeouts, the 5th best K rate, and the second best K/BB ratio. At 3.2, they're just behind the Reds (3.21), and well ahead of 3rd place Washington (2.85).

And when I say pitching, I mean primarily the starting pitching. The bullpen's coming around, the demotions of Boggs and Scrabble certainly helped. They'd allowed 23 runs on less than 19 innings, Boggs was walking over a batter per inning. Joe Kelly's numbers still don't look good, but he hasn't allowed any home runs in his last 5 or so innings, so that's bound to help. I'm a little concerned that Randy Choate's faced 26 batters, walked 3, and only K'd one, but it's 26 batters, so I'm not sure what conclusion I can draw from it. Rosenthal had some bad luck early, fly balls leaving the part at unusually high rates, but that's stabilized and he seems to be on track. Salas, I don't know, his numbers say he should be better than he is. Doesn't give up many walks or hits, but he's just little prone to hard contact at the wrong times, I guess. Mujica's done very well so far, though I don't expect his WHIP to remain around 0.5 for long. The team called up Seth Maness and Carlos Martinez to fill the holes. Martinez had a good first couple of appearances, then go cuffed around in one, but that's OK. Maness had much the same, though he seems to be getting more run than Martinez. Not sure if they feel the need to be more cautious with Martinez' arm, or if Matheny just trusts Maness to throw strikes more consistently. I'm pretty sure that was why he was called up, they got tired of watching Boggs miss the plate, and wanted someone who could find it regularly.

As to the starters, well, first things first, Wainwright taught me the error of doubting him based on one start. It's kind of crazy he can K 8, walk 1, and it hurts his K/BB (currently at 12.6). He's already thrown 2 complete game shutouts. Shelby Miller damn near threw a perfect game against the Rockies, has a WHIP of less than 0.9, 10 K/9, and a K/BB of 4.75. Garcia got battered some by the Brewers (or maybe just Aramis Ramirez) last night, but otherwise, he's been steady. Second on the team in innings, probably the only member of the rotation not benefiting from an unusually low HR rate (He's at 1, the other 4 are all 0.5 or lower). Lynn's been fine, a little more erratic from start to start, but nothing to worry about. Westbrook lost whatever ability to strike people out he'd gained last year, but was compensating by allowing no homers. Then his elbow flared up, and they put him on the DL to be sure. John Gast got to start and had a little trouble, but pitched well enough for the Cards to win. Can't argue with that.

I expect the rotation will slip some, if only because I doubt Westbrook and Miller can keep their ERA below 2, or that Lynn can keep his below 3 (I'm not ruling that out for Wainwright, though). At the same time, if the bullpen can continue to improve, that should compensate. It should certainly be well rested up to this point. Additionally, I think the offense will start to carry more of the load. I think Holliday and Craig can both hit more than they have so far, I hope Molina has some power in that bat, and that Freese will get things sorted. If those guesses are right, the Cardinals won't have to throw a bunch of shutouts to win, though if they want to, that'd be fine.

NBA Second Round Predictions

The first round of the NBA playoffs ended last night, and the second round starts today. Not much turnaround time. At least we got some competitive series. For awhile there it looked like everything was going to be a sweep.

Miami vs. Chicago: So the Heat swept the Bucks, like I (and everyone other than Brandon Jennings) predicted. As for Bulls/Nets, I got the # of games right, but the winner wrong. The whole time I was typing that entry, I kept feeling like I wanted to pick Bulls, but didn't trust it. I basically convinced myself they were too banged up, and the Nets 3 best players were good enough it didn't matter how bad the rest were. Obviously, that was a mistake. At least Deron Williams' number of trips to the second round of the playoffs (3) still exceeds the number of coaches whose careers he's killed (2)!

As for this series, even if the Bulls were completely healthy, meaning they even had Rose, I'd still pick Miami. With no Rose, hobbled Noah, hobbled Hinrich, who the hell knows about Luol Deng (bad side effects of a spinal tap), the best I can do is figure the Bulls will win one. They'll make a game effort, and surely slow down Miami's offense a bit. But Miami's D is pretty good, too, and the Bulls' offense isn't nearly the same challenge. Heat in 5.

New York vs. Indiana: Did we travel back to the '90s? Are Reggie and John Starks going to be firing away from beyond the arc? The Knicks dicked around just enough that my prediction wound up being on the nose, while the Pacers took an extra game to finish Atlanta. What is it with Atlanta and unwatchable playoff series? Practically every game in this one was a blowout. It was like that first-rounder they had against Orlando a few years ago. At least the Pacers managed to win one on the road eventually.

I think they'll find New York a tougher challenge in that department, but I really don't know. The Pacers are supposed to be a good defensive team, but so was Boston. The Pacers are certainly better offensively than the Celtics, but are they a lot better? Who guards Carmelo? David West, or Paul George? George would seem likely to get beat up, while I'm not sure West is fast enough? I'm not sure a dinged up Tyson Chandler can handle Roy Hibbert either, but Hibbert's not as likely to explode for 40 points as Carmelo.

So much of the Knicks is tied up in whether they hit 3s or not. If they go cold for an entire series, they're toast. If they got hot (say 45%) for an entire series, I'd bet they could beat anybody, including Miami. But you don't know how that's going to play out. Off hand, I'm going to say I trust Carmelo being the best player in the series, the Knicks' capacity to win on the road (compared to Indiana's), and I'm worried about the Pacers' offense. Knicks in 6.

Oklahoma City vs. Memphis:  I got the Memphis/Clippers series right on the nose, which I wasn't expecting after LA went up 2-0. The Thunder took a couple of extra games to win, but I wasn't expecting Russell Westbrook to hurt his knee. Neither was OKC, I'd imagine. Credit to the Rockets for not rolling over even after they went down 3-0. I was worried they'd just give up and say, 'Hey, at least we made the playoffs!'

I've seen some discussion about whether Durant can haul this team to the Finals the way LeBron did the Cavs in 2007. I'd point out Durant has a much tougher road to hoe. LeBron, by virtue of playing in the suckass Eastern Conference, drew the 41-win Wizards (outscored by their opponents by 0.6 points per game that year), the 41-win Nets (outscored by their opponents by 0.7 points per game, and then the 53-win Pistons (outscored their opponents by 4.2 points per game). Durant drew a 45-win Houston team in Round 1 (outscored their opponents by 3.5 points per game), a 56-win Memphis team (outscores opponents by 4.1 points per game), and if they make it to the Conference Finals, will probably face 58-win San Antonio (outscores opponents by 6.4 points per game). There's no question LeBron had an easier path, and if we recall, once he reached the Finals, and had to face a Western Conference team, the Cavs were swept.

All of which is to say, I'm not holding it against Durant when the Thunder get bounced in this round. Two years ago they needed 7 games to beat the Grizzlies. That was when OKC had Durant, Westbrook, and Harden. Now they just have Durant, while Memphis still has Gasol, Z-Bo, and a much improved Mike Conley. Oh yes, and Tony Allen, probably the best perimeter defender not named LeBron. I'm picking Memphis in 6, and even that feels like I'm not giving the Grizz enough credit.

San Antonio vs. Golden State: Denver kind of let me down. I got the games right, but the team wrong. I really though the Nuggets had it, especially once David Lee went down, but what can you say about Steph Curry? And now Bogut looks like a force again. Meanwhile, it appears the Spurs looking 'off-kilter' as I put it, really was Popovich playing possum. Either that, or I gave the Lakers way too much credit. To be fair, they played the last two games mostly without their starting backcourt, and their backup backcourt. Once you're down to your backup backup backcourt, you're probably screwed.

I don't know, there's a part of me that thinks the Spurs should be worried. That the Warriors are a very athletic team, not unlike OKC last year, and that will enable them to overcome the Spurs movement and scheming. Then another part of me points out I'm underestimating the Spurs again, and that while Curry may be a shooter on par (or better) than Durant, he's probably not the athlete, and certainly not the defender Durant is. I feel like the Spurs are better equipped to take advantage of the Warriors' size deficit than Denver was, and that if the Warriors try to go small against San Antonio, well, that might mean Pop can get some playoff use out of Matt Bonner for once. I just can't see small-ball being enough to beat a healthy Spurs team. San Antonio in 5.

It's NBA Playoff Time!

Which means it's time for me to make some really bad predictions!

Miami vs. Milwaukee: If you told me that Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis were each going to shoot better than 50% from the field in this series, I might think the Bucks had a shot. I don't think that's gonna happen. Hopefully the Bucks can at least make these games competitive, but unless the Heat suffer catastrophic injuries, or complete sleepwalk through a game, it's Heat in 4.

Brooklyn vs. Chicago: I kept wanting to type "New Jersey". I doubt this is going to be an aesthetically pleasing series, since it matches a defense first (and second, and third) team against one with a very methodical offense. Whether Joakim Noah will be available for the Bulls is still up in the air. I figure he'll play if it's at all possible, but if he isn't ready, he'll just injure himself again. But I don't believe the Bulls can win without him. They need his defense, they need his scoring, and I recall he was a pretty good passer when it came to hitting wing players cutting to the hoop. Not sure how the Nets would guard that, since I don't think their big men can keep up with Noah if he drives. So if he sets up 15 feet from the basket, do they play off so he can't drive, and maybe cut off his passing lanes, but surrender open jumpers?

Like I said, it may all be academic if he's hurt. And if he is, I wonder if the Bulls have enough up front. Still, it's hard for me to picture the Nets winning when their starting lineup has two guys who are practically useless offensively in Reggie Evans and Gerald Wallace. Telling the Bulls they only need to guard three guys is making it too easy. Hard to picture or not, I guess I'll take the Nets in 7.

Indiana vs. Atlanta: Apparently the Hawks did a very poor job of disguising their attempts to tank their way out of the Miami side of the bracket. Not sure why they bothered. I guess the hope is the longer you put off facing Miami, the better the chance something happens, like LeBron blowing out his knee. Not that it matters. Atlanta's not getting past the Pacers, and even if they did, you wouldn't expect them to beat the Knicks or the Celtics. I guess

But that's not relevant, because it's the Pacers that are in front of them now. As good as the Hawks' big men might be, with Horford and Josh Smith (assuming he's fully engaged), the Pacers have Roy Hibbert and David West, who are both bigger. As the Pacers like to play slow and pound the ball inside, that works to their advantage. I don't know, the Hawks started out well, but seem to have gradually unraveled, while the Pacers started off slower (especially Hibbert), and seem to have found their stride as the season progressed. Their offense still isn't much, but against the Hawks, it doesn't need to be. Pacers in 5.

New York vs. Boston: Both teams are banged up, but Tyson Chandler and Kevin Garnett seem ready to go. That's good, you'd like to at least see both teams near full strength for this. I tend to think the Knicks have too much firepower for the Celtics to overcome over 7 games, but I still expect Boston to win a couple, and the rest to be close. I figure their defense can slow down the Knicks enough for that. Then it comes down to getting one randomly huge game from someone (Jeff Green, Jason Terry), and then another win when the Knicks' shooters have simultaneous misfires. But I don't see those two things happening enough for Boston to triumph. Knicks in 6.

Oklahoma City vs. Houston: James Harden's Revenge! if he really wants to prove a point, he better step up his defense, because he can't expect Omer Asik to bail him out every time he lets someone blow past him. I imagine this will be a pretty fun series to watch for a casual fan (or a Thunder fan), but I doubt the Rockets can go bombs away from 3 enough to beat OKC, when Houston probably can't even slow Durant, Westbrook, and the rest down on the other end. Thunder in 4.

San Antonio vs. Lakers: Well, there's two L.A. teams. What did you expect me to do? Boy, I would love for this to be a sweep. Two weeks ago, that's pretty much what I predicted. Since then, the Spurs have looked bad, and the Lakers have looked. . . not terrible. Even without Kobe. It's like Mike D'Antoni finally realized Pau Gasol is a useful post player. Only took him the entire season, but hey, better late than never. For the Spurs, I'm not sure Tony Parker's fully ready to go, and Manu Ginobli certainly isn't. And they cut Stephen Jackson and replaced him with Tracy McGrady. A fine idea 10 years ago, but I'm not so sure it is now.

The Spurs just seem off-kilter right now, and I don't think it's Popvich playing possum before the playoffs. But I have to believe they have enough to get past a team whose starting backcourt might be Steve Blake and Jodie Meeks. They have to be able to triumph over that. Right? Spurs in 6.

Denver vs. Golden State: Oh, this should be good. Denver loves to get into the paint, and with little to no Andrew Bogut, the Warriors are ill-equipped to stop them. The Warriors love to shoot 3s, and as far as this season's contests went, the Nuggets couldn't stop that. Both teams like to run, both teams like to score. This might be the series that most makes me wish I had cable here.

I think the edge goes to Denver. I know the don't have Gallinari right now, but as I said a couple of weeks ago, the Nuggets already spread the load around pretty well. I think all it really takes is for Wilson Chandler to see more minutes, and for everyone else to increase their production just a little, and they should be able to cover it. If this was the Andrew Bogut of a few years ago, pre-horrible elbow fracture, I'd be more concerned about the Warriors, but I don't think they have the horses down low. I know David Lee can score, and Carl Landry's a good player, but they seem kind of thin past that. I suppose there's always the chance JaVale McGee could self-destruct, but I think he's getting better about avoided dumb decisions. Steph Curry's potentially terrifying, and I'm sure he can win at least one game on his own, but I don't think he can win enough. Nuggets in 6.

Clippers vs. Memphis: I know there's been some concern about the Grizzlies offense minus Rudy Gay. That there isn't enough spacing, the passing lanes are too narrow, and teams are going to clamp down. I'm sure that is a problem, I'm just not convinced the Clippers are the team to do it. Their defense has improved, but it isn't on par with the Grizzlies, not yet. Also, I think Gasol/Z-Bo beats Blake Griffin/DeAndre Jordan. Griffin's a good passer, but Gasol is some kind of an artist. he's practically a second point guard out there. And between Randolph and Jordan, there's no comparison. One of them can't even be on the court at the end of close games, and I'm not talkin' about Zach Randolph.

The Clippers' offense concerns me, especially at the end of games. Their offense is essentially, "let Chris Paul figure something out". It's not a bad strategy, but it might be a good idea to have a little more structure in place. especially since Paul will be getting hounded by Tony Allen. I suppose that helps the Clips' defense, since they can basically ignore Allen as a scoring threat, but I think the Clippers want high-scoring games more than the Grizzlies. A bunch of games in the 80s probably suit Memphis just fine. I'm gonna say Memphis in 6.

Let's Talk Of Several Sports

Starting with baseball. Since the last post, Jason Motte went on the DL, and so did David Freese. Carlos Beltran's trying to play through a broken toe, and Adam Wainwright got a nearly $100 million contract that starts next year.

He promptly went out and surrendered 4 runs on 11 hits in 6 innings on Opening Day. I know, only one start, and hey, he didn't walk anybody, while striking out 6. Still, the results are what ultimately matter, and those weren't so great.

That makes me sound more down than I really am. It's too early in the season for me to pay much attention, what with it being a six-month long haul. Besides that, I don't find myself with particularly high expectations for the Cardinals. Oh, I expect them to finish with a winning record, but I'm not sure they'll make the playoffs. There are quite a few teams that ought to be good in the NL this year. Cincy, the Nationals, Atlanta, probably San Francisco and Arizona, maybe the Dodgers. I've seen several people who are high on Milwaukee, though I'm not as sure. They might have better pitching than last year, but their offense is suspect. Especially considering MLB's pursuit of Ryan Braun is reaching vendetta levels at this point. I expect them to conjure up some trumped up charge they can suspend him for at some point. If so, I'd expect the Brewers' offense to tank completely, like the '07 Cards when Pujols would take a day off. Even so, there's also the Pirates. I don't know, maybe this year they manage to stay above .500 all season. They made it into July in 2011, and August last year, so they ought to at least be a winning team into September this year.

Anyway, there's a lot of competition for those 5 playoff spots, and I'm just not sure about the Cardinals. The middle infield looks poor, and I'm not totally sold on the pitching staff. But if guys like Shelby Miller and Trevor Rosenthal can get some solid innings under the belt, and perhaps Matt Adams (and eventually) Oscar Taveras and Kolten Wong can get some at-bats to prepare them for heavier loads next year, I'd feel pretty good about that. The Cards have been pretty consistently good for awhile now, I'm not going to panic if they slip a little this year.

Over in the NFL, Arizona traded for Carson Palmer. Yeesh. Sadly, he is an upgrade over Skelton or Lindley (Skelton's been cut loose), and also over Drew Stanton or Brian Hoyer. I'm not sure he's that much of an upgrade, but at least this hopefully keeps Arizona from wasting a high draft pick on one of the sorry QBs in this year's draft. Go for the offensive line! Or linebackers! But not Manti Teo!

Part of the reason I'm not much concerned with baseball is that I'm preoccupied with the NBA. The playoffs are about to start, which means this is the time of year I most regret not having TV around here. The Western Conference looks stacked, though the Nuggets took a hit with Gallinari having knee surgery. Still, they seem like a deep enough team to be the one best suited to surviving losing their #2 scorer. They spread the load around so much already, it just means everybody else needs to pick up a little slack, which they theoretically can do. The Spurs without Parker, or the Thunder without Westbrook would have a tougher challenge, I think (though it's not the same thing, since those guys perform different roles for their team than Gallinari does for Denver).

It looks like the Lakers might get the #8 seed, though Utah holds a tie-breaker. Even though I'm a big Nash fan, I would thoroughly enjoy Los Angeles missing the playoffs entirely.  This trainwreck of a season has been a joy to behold. Even if the constant dissecting of a team that spent most of the season below .500 has been tedious. I don't really care that Utah will likely be destroyed by OKC or San Antonio, just as the Spurs did to them last year. Does anyone really expect the Lakers, with their shoddy defense and lack of any consistent offensive strategy to do any better? So what if Utah (or the lakers, or the Mavs) gets obliterated? They're the 8 seed, that's what usually happens, occasional Golden State over Dallas, or 76ers over Derrick Rose-less Chicago notwithstanding. The Bucks are probably gonna be the 8 seed in the East. Is anyone going to be surprised if Miami curbstomps them 4 straight games and moves on? No, because Miami's a 1 seed, and the Bucks are an 8, and that means Miami's vastly better than Milwaukee. And if the Lakers are an 8 seed playing #1 San Antonio, it means the same thing.

As to Miami, I'm not sure there's anyone in the East who can beat them. The Bucks have no chance, and Atlanta's fallen apart over the course of the season. Boston (even if they had KG), Chicago, and Indiana all have top-notch defenses, but so does Miami. They might slow the Heat offense down, but the Heat will do the same to them, and they don't have nearly as much wiggle room there. I'd give the Knicks a chance if they could shoot 3s the way they did the first month and a half of the season. Otherwise, I don't think they can keep up. Which leaves the Nets. Brooklyn has some big men that are useful, which is still Miami's weakness, assuming you can keep the game slowed down enough. That was Indiana's problem last year, or OKC when Perkins was on the court. A lot of the time the Heat were too fast for the other team to bring their big men into play. If the Nets could slow it down, ugly it up a little, they might have a chance, but I wouldn't call it a good one. It'd be pretty cool to see Miami play in the Western Conference playoffs instead. Let them go at it with the Spurs, or the Thunder, maybe throw Memphis at them, or the Clippers. At least they'd get a challenge.

Will Cromer and Theriot Be Replaced In My Nightmares?

Since the last time we talked, Rafael Furcal's been scheduled for Tommy John surgery, which means he's done for the year. I'd complain that the team went along with the "rest and rehab" approach instead of pushing for surgery last fall, but for two things. One, I wouldn't want to go under the knife if I could possibly avoid it, and I imagine Furcal didn't, either. Two, even if it happened last fall, I doubt he would have recovered soon enough to do the Cardinals. Any good. I believe position players can recover faster than pitchers, if only because  they don't have to throw as much, but I imagine he still wouldn't have been ready before August.

The Cardinals released Ronny Cedeno, who apparently didn't impress during Spring Training. I guess it's good they aren't just handing guys roster spots (Wigginton excluded), but it does rather leave the middle infield a bit of a mess. Kozma appears to be starting SS now, which hardly inspires confidence. The team is apparently not high on Ryan Jackson, to the point he's going to be Greg Garcia's backup in AAA. Garcia having just been promoted to that level, I can't see him getting on the roster, barring an injury to Kozma. Figure five bench spots, one to Tony Cruz (Molina's caddy), one to Shane Robinson (back-up CF), one to Descalso, one to Wigginton, one to Matt Adams, apparently. Besides Descalso, there's nobody there who can play middle infield, and even Descalso shouldn't be used at SS.

Frankly, Wigginton seems like the problem here. If you have Matt Carpenter and Matt Adams on the roster, why do you need Ty? The idea is he'll play either the corner infield or corner outfield positions when the starters need a day off. Well, Adams is a first baseman (and only that), and Carpenter can play all 4 spots, and better than Wigginton. Descalso can play 3rd (though he doesn't hit well enough), and if you need a corner outfielder, and neither Carpenter or Allen Craig can do it for some reason, you could always shift Jon Jay there and start Robinson (or Adron Chambers) in center. The one place the Cards don't have a backup is SS, and Wigginton doesn't fill that need. Yet he's signed for two years. Admittedly, at a price (5 million total, less than what they owe Furcal this year) the team shouldn't balk at eating the money if they think they must.

He hasn't had an OPS+ over 100 since 2008, he's not even average defensively at any of the positions he plays. His one possible benefit is that he's righthanded, while Carpenter and Adams are lefties, but I don't think that overrules all the other redundancies.

I had seen the possibility raised of acquiring either Troy Tulowitzki or Elvis Andrus. I was initially in favor of Tulowitzki. He's a lot more expensive, and he's older, but if he hits his ceiling, he's a lot better than Andrus. He easily be the best SS the Cards had since Ozzie. Then I realized how much more expensive he is. He's signed through at least 2020, and will make 20 million a year from 2015-2019. Andrus has 2 years left on his contract, about 11 million total. He's supposed to be quite good defensively, which is always my primary concern with shortstops (see Theriot, Ryan).

Either guy, unfortunately, would be pricey in prospects. Andrus probably less so, since he's under contract for fewer years, and isn't nearly as good. And, the Rangers have Jurickson Profar, who everyone assumes will take Andrus' job as soon as the team deems him ready. The Rockies, though, aren't likely to contend any time soon, and with Tulowitzki's injury history, they might want to try and move him while he still has value. Then again, their payroll is low enough, he's not a serious burden for them.

The thing is, I have this vision of the Cardinals for 2014. Molina behind the plate, Adams at first, Kolten Wong at second, Freese at 3rd, Holliday- Oscar Taveras- Allen Craig in the outfield, with Descalso, Matt Carpenter, and Jon Jay making up 60% of the bench. I don't think that's doable if they traded for Tulo or Elvis, because at least some of those guys (almost certainly Taveras) would have to go in the process. It seems the Cardinals came to the same decision, so they're gonna roll the dice with the Kozmanaut.

The Cardinals' Uneventful Offseason Hits A Pothole

I'm not talking about the signing of Ronny Cedeno. That's an uninspiring move, but there's a chance he could replicate his good defensive numbers from two years ago in Pittsburgh while backing up Furcal, when he was 10 runs better than average by Total Zone, and worth 1.2 defensive WAR. I'm not expecting him to hit. Last year was the first of his career with an above average OPS, and the first one since his rookie season with an OPS+ better than 90. The surprising result was because a) he had a 73 point gap between batting average and on-base percentage, compared to 43 points for his career, and b) his isolated power was 151, compared to a career average of 110.

It all screams "FLUKE" to me, like those seasons Jack Wilson would have every so often where his iso would double for one year. He was 29, which would make him a late bloomer (and also exiting his prime), and it was in 186 plate appearances. He hit 4 HRs last year, which is a total he's exceeded 3 times: 2006 (6 HRs in 572 PAs), 2009 (10 in 372), and 2010 (8 in 502). So no, I don't expect Cedeno to hit this year, but if he can play the same level of defense he did in 2011, I'll take it. Though a Cedeno/Descalso starting infield would be an offensive disaster nearly on par with the 2010 Ryan/Schumaker combo (though it might be better defensively, not involving Skip Schumaker).

That was a lot more words than I intended to spend on Ronny Cedeno, when the big issue is Chris Carpenter. He's having more of the same nerve trouble that kept him out last year. I'm not sure how many more ribs they can (or should) remove at this stage, even assuming that would help. The Cards don't seem to expect Carp to pitch at all this year, though I haven't heard anything from Carpenter to the effect he's retiring or giving up on the season. Wouldn't blame him if he did, he's already had about 8 surgical procedures to get back on the mound. Nobody would judge if he said enough is enough.

OK, some people would judge, but they're assholes and we all know it, so we can ignore them.

For the Cardinals, it opens up a rotation spot for one of the young guys. I think Joe Kelly might have the lead on the "been there before grounds", since he was in the rotation for most of the season. I'd prefer to see Shelby Miller myself, let Rosenthal work on the secondary pitches in AAA some more, and Kelly can be a righty specialist out of the 'pen. Or work on trying to get out lefthanders more consistently in the minors. Whichever suits the team's needs. I wanted to see more of the young guys in the rotation, but not because Carp was out. Garcia's shoulder implodes? Sure (and it'll probably still happen). Westbrook doesn't get a new contract last August, and leaves in free agency? Absolutely.

It's Carpenter they're losing, though. I don't know what to say about him. He's probably one of my three or four favorite Cardinals' starting pitchers of all time. Part of that is because he was so damn good. His healthy years were some of the best I've seen from a Cardinal, up there with John Tudor and Bob Tewksbury. Part of it was the injuries he was either coming back from, or seemingly on the verge of. I think that's a lot of it. All pitchers are injury risks, but with Carpenter there was this tangible sense that his elbow would go again, or his shoulder, and that might be it. It made me appreciate his healthy seasons all the more, while hating and dreading those injuries, because they were going to shut him down again.

Carpenter pitched a lot of great games for the Cardinals. His summer of 2005 was nothing but. The Game 3 in the 2006 World Series, the Game 7 in the 2011 World Series. Outpitching Roy Halladay in Game 5 of the Divisional Series in 2011. For me though, the game that stands out was the season finale that year.

Yeah, it was against the suckass Astros. But those same Astros had kicked around Garcia and especially Westbrook the two previous games, taxing the bullpen. And the Cardinals still had to win the game to have any chance of making the postseason. During the game the night before, as the team scrambled to come back and hold on, Carpenter told Dave Duncan to the effect, "Don't worry about the bullpen, I've got tomorrow covered." And then he went and threw a complete game shutout. Yeah, against the Astros, but in a game the Cards needed, and he came through.

I'm not sure players can or should care about every game as much as we do, because it's their job, and they have to go back in the next day. To let their failures in some May game eat them up the way fans do (they way I did about the series with the Mets last year, for example), would only distract them. But in the big games, I love the players that have that aura that it does matter as much to them as it does to me. That they hate losing, and so they want the damn ball because they know they'll get the job done. Carpenter had that, even when he struggled (the '06 NLCS), and that's why I always believed he'd come through, or do everything he possibly could if he didn't.

The Yearly Hall Of Fame Ballot

We'll know the results for this year's Hall of Fame voting on Wednesday. Right now, it doesn't look certain anyone will get in. Not that there's any shortage of worthwhile candidates, but there's the whole PED thing mucking it all up. It's gotten frankly ridiculous. Jeff Bagwell's never been linked to anything. No failed drug tests, no mention in the Mitchell Report, never brought up by some other player as a guy who did steroids with him. But, he had big muscles, hit home runs, and played in the '90s and early 2000s, and that's enough for some people. What's more hilarious/infuriating is some people are holding Bagwell's presence as a teammate against Biggio. They have no proof Bagwell did anything, but they think he did, so that means Biggio is suspect, too.

When Jeter comes up on the ballot, I wonder if he'll be held to the same standard. He played with Clemens, Pettite, Giambi, and A-Rod, so clearly Jeter must have used, right? I don't know if he did or not. As I've said before, unless someone admits it, or fails a drug test, I give them the benefit of the doubt. That's not even getting into the question of what baseball's official policy was when there was no testing, or the fact there are dozens of cheaters in the Hall, from amphetimine users (including Mike Schmidt and Hank Aaron) to ball doctorers like Whitey Ford and Gaylord Perry. And there's no conceivable reading of the character clause that should let Ty Cobb in, not if the "character" stuff really means anything. If someone were to vote against all those players, I wouldn't mind their voting against known PED guys, because at least they were consistent. It's this notion that steroids are somehow the only form of cheating that's really bad that wears on me.

Anyway, ballot time. Start with the returning candidates.

Still Yes: Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, Edgar Martinez, Alan Trammell, Larry Walker. I feel stronger about supporting Walker this year, because it was pointed out that he wasn't just a guy with Coors-inflated numbers. He was a very good rightfielder defensively, and a good baserunner, especially before injuries and age sapped his speed.

Still No: Jack Morris, Lee Smith, Fred McGriff, Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy, Bernie Williams.

Changed to No: Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmerio. It's more about the number of promising candidates on the ballot this year.

So that's half of my available "Yes" votes. Let's look at the newbies, all 24 of them.

No Chance, That's What Y'All Got: Todd Walker, Jose Mesa, Sandy Alomar, Mike Stanton, Jeff Conine, Royce Clayton, Roberto Hernandez, Aaron Sele, Ryan Klesko, Rondell White, Woody Williams, Jeff Cirillo, Shawn Green, Reggie Sanders, Julio Franco, Steve Finley, David Wells.

A few notes:

- I'm still more than a little biased against Royce Clayton, seeing as he was the guy LaRussa was so sure should start ahead of Ozzie. At least he was a good SS, even if he never drew any walks. It kind of astounds me he managed 1904 hits.

- When I was a kid, I hated Ryan Klesko. Called him "Ryan Crisco". Not sure why. He looked goofy in the outfield, and it seemed like Atlanta was always on the verge of moving out McGriff to use Klesko at first. That bothered me for some reason.

- Ah Woody Williams. We'll always have that stretch from your arrival in St. Louis in 2001, until you wore down in mid-2003. What a good run.

- In the same way I wanted Jamie Moyer to hang on until he got 300 wins, just to see how the Hall voters would handle it, I wanted Julio Franco to hang on until he reached 3000 hits.

- David Wells was a pretty good pitcher. I might be selling him short, putting him in with the rest. Still, I don't think he's a Hall of Fame caliber pitcher.

Which leaves us 7 candidates.

Sammy Sosa: I feel like 600 HRs should be enough, but then, that's about all Sosa has going for him. He wasn't much of a fielder, his speed evaporated as his power increased, and he never drew many walks (witness his .344 OBP). That last one is what I'd have to hang my hat on to differentiate him from Jim Thome, assuming I want to vote for Thome when he's eligible. No.

Craig Biggio: He got to 3,000 hits, got on-base a lot during his prime, played good or better defense at 3 positions during his prime. He may have looked bad at time those last couple years as he struggled towards 3,000, but he's hardly the only person in baseball history guilty of that. Yes.

Kenny Lofton: I've seen some good arguments for just how good Lofton was. And I am partial to guys with speed who could field pretty well. It's probably better to focus on Tim Raines first (who has a stronger case), then try to work off that success for Lofton, but what the hell, Yes.

Curt Schilling: Ugh. As a St. Louis Cardinals' fan, I don't like being reminded of the 2004 World Series. That being said, Schilling has 3,000 strikeouts. I know his win total is low, worse than Morris' and Wells', but I think Schilling was indisputably the better pitcher, even if he wasn't as effective for as long. Sigh, grumble, grumble, Yes.

Mike Piazza: Best hitting catcher ever. My impression of Piazza is of a guy who was absolutely terrible at throwing out baserunners, but wasn't that bad otherwise behind the plate. I feel like before he got older, he was solid at blocking pitchers in the dirt and stuff like that. Not Molina, but hardly the disaster people make him out to be. Even if he were as bad as they say, he was more than a good enough hitter to compensate. Yes.

Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds: At this point, you may notice I've left myself only one empty spot, with two pretty deserving candidates. Well, I suppose deserving depends on your perspective. As far as I know, Clemens contends he never took anything illegal, and despite Congress' best efforts, was never proven to be lying. Bonds has said he did take steroids, or Victor Conte said he did, and Bonds didn't dispute it, but Bonds does contend he never knowingly took anything. It feels like that should make a difference, but I'm not sure how.

Clemens was, going by the numbers, a great starting pitcher. Bonds was, going by the numbers a great leftfielder. Well, a great hitter who played left field for part of the time anyway. I'm not sure he defense was up to snuff in his later years (understandable, given his age). If I have to pick between the two, and I suppose I do, I'd probably go with Bonds. I think he was more dominant relative to his peers than Clemens was. It could go either way. I could take either Edgar or Lofton off my ballot, but screw it, these guys can share the spot.

You're Done Arizona, Get Lost

Arizona lost to San Francisco 27-13. The Cardinals made a game of it for about a quarter and a half, but lost in the end.

Someday I'd surely like to know how Arizona can contain almost every other wide receiver on earth, but they can't handle Michael Crabtree. He had 4 TD catches this season against Arizona. What the hell?

William Powell was lead rusher for some reason. 52 yards on 14 carries. LaRod Stephens-Howling was relegated to 1 carry for -1 yard, which means he led the team in rushing with less than 360 yards for the season. The last time the Cardinals leading rusher finished with fewer yards was 1952. Charlie Trippi, 350 yards. In 12 games. Arizona did have a lot of injuries this year. Beanie Wells (big surprise), Ryan Williams (again). But LaRod's been available all season. Why not use him more, or at least some, every week?

One more reason the entire offensive coaching staff (including Whisenhunt) needs to go. They're all morons.

At least Brian Hoyer managed to throw a TD pass. That gives Arizona 11 for the season. Hooray! Right now, given the choice between Hoyer, Lindley, or Skelton, I'd keep Hoyer. He managed to be more successful in the offense with only three weeks, than Lindley did with an entire year, or Skelton with 3. It kills me to give up on Skelton, but he's awful. No getting around it. If you asked me to pick between Hoyer and Kolb, eh, it'd be close. Kolb performed better, but he hasn't demonstrated he can stay healthy. Which might be a reason to keep both, draft someone in say the 2nd or third round, and focus on improving the OL and running game. I don't think either guy can consistently win games for you with their arm, but if they're given some help, I think they can be successful.

Hopefully they keep Dockett and Wilson around. I'd hate to lose them because they couldn't get along with a coach who ought to be fired.

Whatever, the season's truly over. Now it's playoff time. We get to watch Flacco demonstrate that he isn't an elite QB, no matter what he says. Fingers crossed he lays a giant stink bomb that wards the Cardinals off. He might be an improvement over Kolb/Hoyer, but at the price, he isn't worth it. He's not good enough to build an offense around, even if he (and his coaches, judging by their periodic ignoring of Ray Rice), think he is. Given they're playing the Colts, who have a terrible run defense, the Ravens should just give Ray Rice as many carries as he wants.

I'm inclined to give Seattle the edge over the Redskins, since it's a home game for Seattle, and they've generally played better recently. I don't think Alfred Morris will find the running as easy against the Seahawks as he did the Cowboys. I have to lean Packers in their game against the Vikings. They already beat Minnesota in Green Bay once, 200+ yards from Adrian Peterson or not.

AP, by the way, should be MVP. 6.0 yards per carry and a nearly 2,100 yards as he lead the Vikings to the playoffs. Yes, Peyton lead the Broncos to the playoffs, and they even won their division, but two things: One, the Broncos won that division last year, with a QB who could not actually throw the football. The Vikings won 3 games. Speaking of the Broncos division, that leads us to Two, the shitbox that is the AFC West. That division is a joke. Denver had 6 wins on their schedule guaranteed at the beginning of the year, just from getting to play KC, Oakland, and SD twice each. Meanwhile, the Vikings are in the same division as Green Bay and Chicago, an 11-win team and a 10-win team. Even the Lions, who only won 4 games, are no slouches. They're at least competitive, more than you can say for most of Denver's competition.

Hey credit to the Broncos for doing what they should, beating up on the patsies. But it does diminish their accomplishments a bit compared to the Vikings, and specifically, Adrian Peterson.

Merry Christmas To You Too, Arizona

If the Cardinals' defense has a weakness - other than being paired with such a pathetic offense - it's the running game. They tend to get torn up on the ground. Even Shonn Greene was able to rush for over 100 yards against. Admittedly, it wouldn't be such an issue if their offense could do something, because Arizona could pull far enough ahead teams would abandon the run. But that's not the hand they've been dealt.

All of which is a way of saying Matt Forte was likely to be a problem for Arizona yesterday, and he was. Until he left with an injury. By that time, though, the Cards were already down by a couple of scores and Forte had gained 88 yards on 12 carries, plus a TD.

Really, though, the Cardinals defense didn't do badly. Yes, they surrendered 152 yards on the ground, at a 4.6 ypc clip. But they recovered a fumble, held the Bears under 300 yards of total offense, and kept Chicago to 3-of-13 on 3rd down.

Unfortunately, the Cardinals' offense was held below 250 yards of offense, went 3-of-15 on 3rd down, and had three turnovers. Beanie Wells fumbled on the Arizona 1, which the Bears recovered for a TD. Then Charles Tillman intercepted a pass and returned it for another TD. SO the Cardinals' D only allowed 14 points. Which still would have been enough for Chicago to win, but again, not the defense's fault.

Whisenhunt benched Lindley partway through the game and tried Brian Hoyer. He completed some passes, though one of them was to the Bears. So not much new there. The running game did nothing, 19 carries for 29 yards. At least they tried to run, I guess.

Time For An Offseason Look-In

The St. Louis Cardinals have made a few moves at the major league level since the season ended. Let's take a look:

Signed Randy Choate to a 3-year deal - $7.5 million over 3 years seems like an awful lot for a guy who averages 44 innings per 162 games, and threw less than 40 last year. Still, the Cardinals did have a dearth of useful lefthanded relievers last year, and if that's all they let Choate do, he ought to be fine. Lefties have a career .563 OPS against him. Unfortunately, righties have an .806 OPS against Choate, so best to keep him away from those. It was even more pronounced last year, .461 vs. .821, in admittedly small sample size (116 PAs against lefties, 52 against righties).

I do have concerns that he'll abruptly lose his ability to retire lefties, at which point he's useless. He's going to be 37-39 for the duration of this contract, so it could happen. Also, he's likely to throw so few innings, it won't take many bad appearances to torpedo his value. Or at the very least, turn the fans against him. Ray King didn't have a bad 2005, for example, but he did have a bad stretch where he couldn't retire any of the tough lefthanders, and that was all it took for fans to get frustrated. When you only have one duty, you better carry it out well, or everyone is gonna wonder why they keep you around.

Traded Skip Schumaker to the Dodgers - Apparently Skip's people requested the trade. The Cardinals got a minor league shortstop, Jake Lemmerman, I believe. He's supposed to be a slick fielder, but he's been a pretty lousy hitter even in Double A. Which is pretty much the same book as the one on Ryan Jackson, but at least he's made it to AAA, and even the majors. Even if Matheny did refuse to actually use him at SS for some reason.

I'm not going to pretend I'm sorry to see him go. It's not true, and you wouldn't believe it anyway. I've beaten the drum for too many years about how Skip playing second pissed me off. He had his useful moments, and credit to him for being willing to try playing second, but he wasn't good at it. His offensive value is almost entirely dependent on his batting average, because he doesn't have much power, or much ability to draw walks. He's hardly the only guy on the team with that skillset, but most of the others play the same positions as him, and are probably better. You couldn't platoon him at 2nd with Descalso because they were both lefties, and while Skip hit better, Descalso's the better fielder. He can't platoon with Jay in CF, because Jay is also a lefty, a much better hitter (113 OPS+ vs. 94), and for this year at least, a better fielder also. Skip doesn't hit enough to be someone you'd want to use to take playing time away from Holliday or Beltran, so what does that leave him?

The Cardinals need a guy who can play 2nd or SS, who can actually hit a little, preferably righthanded. Skip filled none of those requirements. I'm not sure what the Dodgers will use him for, but good luck to him all the same.

Signed Ty Wigginton to a 2 year contract - Problem is Ty Wigginton doesn't fill any of those requirements either. He doesn't even do the things he does better than people the Cardinals already have. There's no reason to use him as Freese's primary backup ahead of Matt Carpenter. I went back through his entire career, and there wasn't one season where Baseball-Reference has him as even an average 3rd baseman. He can't really play the outfield either, so you're better off continuing to work with MCarp there too. Same at first base, backing up Allen Craig.

The best thing you can say is he's righthanded, and he does do better against lefties, so I guess you could get by using him in place of MCarp against tough lefties, but he's not that great. You're probably better off just sticking with either Craig or Freese, if they're available. And of course, he doesn't do anything for the middle infield. Unless they're planning to use Carpenter as part of a trade package to get a middle infielder, I don't see the point of this move. Wigginton just doesn't seem to have the range of utility that makes him worth a 2 year contract at this stage. It's not a big deal in terms of money - about 5 million total - but it feels like a waste of a roster spot that could go to someone who helps more.

So yeah, not exactly loving the offseason moves so far, but I did figure it was gonna be tricky. The Cardinals seemed like they were just good enough across the field it would be hard to improve anywhere except at the margins. Trying to upgrade from Furcal at SS, Descalso at 2nd, or maybe Jay in center, was going to cost so much it probably wouldn't be worth it. So then you're looking at marginal players, ones willing to be bench guys, and those guys are always going to have holes in their game. Even so, this isn't a promising start.

So It's Like That, Huh, Arizona?

I'm not really mad they won. I remembered at some point last week that I want the Cardinals to win. Always. Anyway they can. Fuck draft positioning. I was just didn't want to see any more humiliating losses, and the Seattle game made me fear the defense had packed it in for the year.

Not that I would have blamed them if they had. They've done their best to carry this team all season. The special teams haven't been terrible, but certainly haven't been the boon they were last year, when Peterson was breaking off huge punt returns every 5 minutes. The offense has been a disaster. I wouldn't be surprised if the defense just lost hope when the Seahawks went up 13-0. I still think they quit in that game, but I understand it. At that point, the Cards' only chance would have been multiple defensive touchdowns, and that obviously didn't happen. That week.

This week? The defense had 2 INT returns for TDs, plus another INT by Peterson, plus the special teams recovered a fumbled punt inside the 10. Which certainly helps. Beanie Wells ran for three TDs, and Lindley only threw 1 INT, but also barely 100 yards. The offense had 2 scoring drives that started inside Detroit's 5, and another inside their 30. On the plus side, they did rush for 99 yards, and Whisenhunt remembered LaRod Stephens-Howling existed, giving him 5 carries. All told, the Cardinals ran it 29 times, to only 21 passes. You'd like to see more play calls, but at least they got the ratio right.

I don't think Wells can be a consistent 20-25 carry back over a whole season. He just can't stay healthy. And LaRod probably can't hold up to that level of work over the long haul either. But between the two of them they ought to be able to get 30 carries a game, provided the defense can keep things close. And until Arizona gets a competent QB, they need to run as much as possible.

Anyway, major credit to the defense for showing up big this week. I imagine they have to be frustrated about the way things have gone, but they responded well to the embarrassing defeat last week. Also, I really dislike that the team fined Dockett for arguing with the coaches about letting the Jets score. I understand the thinking behind letting the Jets score, but I also understand the Cardinals' offense is terrible, and they couldn't have scored a touchdown and 2-point conversion if they had a whole other game. The defense forcing a fumble and returning it themselves was the team's best chance. If the coaching staff didn't recognize that, they weren't paying attention. Which, given some of their decisions this year, is entirely possible.

But hey, that defense sure is good. Beat up Jay Cutler next week guys. If you do, he might throw a bunch of picks and the team could have a chance! OK, the odds are strongly against it. Even slumping, the Bears are more formidable than the Lions, but at least it's in Arizona.

Arizona Teaches Me To Be Careful What I Wish For

Let's start with this: I asked for John Skelton to be reinstalled as starter. I figured that with him, Arizona could have held off Atlanta and beaten the Jets. Whisenhunt made Skelton the starter for the game against Seattle, and Skelton played like crap. So did most of the team, and Arizona got obliterated, 58-0.

At this point, I'm ready for the season to be over. If Arizona chose to forfeit the last 3 games of the season, I wouldn't mind. Just take the 1-0 losses and move on to the offseason. At least the point differential wouldn't get much worse.

There's nothing else to say.

Would You Like To Hear Some Numbers, Arizona?

137 yards of total offense. 5 first downs, one of those on a penalty. 0-for-15 on first down.

Let me repeat that. 0-FOR-15 on 3RD DOWN.

Oh, and the most important number, 6. As in, six points, one fewer than the Jets scored.

Ryan Lindley's been the QB for over 10 quarters now. The Cardinals have scored 29 points in that stretch. John Skelton, hardly Tom Brady under center, had lead the Cardinals to 30 points in roughly 5.5 quarters (from the start of the Green Bay game up to his benching). The opposing defenses have scored 21 points since Lindley took over. Keep in mind, that's just them returning his mistakes to the house. It doesn't count the points their offenses scored thanks to improved field position.

What's galling is Rex Ryan was willing to bench Sanchez when it was clear he didn't have it. He turned to Greg McElroy, not because he expected McElroy to be great, but because what the hell, he couldn't be any worse. Lo and behold, McElroy did just enough to lead the Jets on their lone scoring drive.

Meanwhile, Whisenhunt is over there watching Lindley derp his way to a 6-for-20 first half, and he never considers putting Skelton back. Well, he did, but he says the coaching staff was swayed by the things Lindley was saying on the sideline. Swell. Lindley produced a sway in me as well, but it was nausea from his terrible passing.

Did you know that between the games against the Falcons and Jets, the Cardinals are +7 in turnover margin/ Yet they lost both games. Their defense is busting its ass for nothing. If Whisenhunt had kept Skelton in, the Cards win both those games. I'm not saying they would have been pretty, but I'm confident Skelton would have made just enough plays so the defense's hard work wasn't for naught. I can't say they would have won the Rams game, though I figure it would have been considerably closer since I doubt Skelton would have thrown 4 INTs.

Even if they lost that one, consider the overall circumstance. The Cardinals would have followed a 5-game losing streak by winning 2 of 3, both victories on the road no less. Instead, they're on an 8-game losing streak, and Whisenhunt is insisting Lindley gives the team its best chance to win. Which is so absurd as to be hilarious, like a bear on a jet ski. Lindley hasn't thrown a TD yet. His completion percentage is 48.5%, his yards per attempt, 2.2.

Even Skelton, in his rookie year, when he completed only 47.6% of his passes, had 2 TDs to only 2 INTs. he averaged 4.9 yards per attempt. When you're so lousy you make Rookie John Skelton look like Unitas in comparison, the only team you're helping win is whoever plays against you.

And why is LaRod Stephens-Howling the forgotten man on offense? He got one carry and one catch yesterday. How is it that Beanie Wells' return (32 carries for 70 yards the last two weeks, but also 2 TDs) somehow made LaRod the third-stringer behind Wells and William Powell? As Lindley clearly can't get the ball within 5 yards of Fitzgerald, that makes LaRod the best playmaker they have the ball can actually reach.

How's That QB Change Working Out For You, Arizona?

I'll tell you how it's working: Like shit.

Arizona lost again. To the Rams. Again. 31-17 this time. I don't blame the defense. Well, I do a little bit. Bradford threw for almost 200 yards on only 8 completions, in no small part because Arizona allowed 30+ yard completions to Chris Givens, Danny Amendola, and Lance Kendricks. They also let Steven Jackson run for 139 yards, at 5.8 yards a clip, but I've resigned myself to their run defense being ass.

Still, I'm pinning this loss on Ryan Lindley, and Ken Whisenhunt and his offensive coaching staff. Lindley threw 4 picks, 2 of which were returned for TDs. As you might notice from the score, the Cards lost by 14 points, which just so happens to be how many points they got off those INT TDs.

But here's the question: Why the fuck was Lindley throwing 52 times?! The cards were either leading or tied through the first 35 minutes of the game. The Rams didn't go up by double digits until the 2nd INT return late in the 3rd quarter. Arizona had Beanie Wells back, even got 2 rushing touchdowns out of him, but he only managed 17 carries. At less than 3 yards a carry, yes, but you can't put it all on the fucking rookie.

And where the hell was LaRod Stephens-Howling? He gets one carry, and one pass thrown in his direction? Did the coaching staff completely forget how much he's been giving them lately? He makes a pretty good change of pace from Wells, why not use him? And how the hell does Lindley target Fitzgerald 12 times, but only connect on three of them? Even Derek Anderson could do better than that, and he couldn't hit the broad side of a barn with a tractor.

This season has absolutely gone in the shitter. Scratch that. It's at least in the septic system by now.