John Smoltz? Eh, Why Not

So now the Cardinals went and signed John Smoltz, and they're even going to put him in the rotation, rather than in the bullpen. I suppose financially there's no real risk, and the team seems to have a sufficient lead to hold onto the division, and even if Smoltz bombs in his starts, the front of the rotation (Carpenter, Wainwright, Pineiro) ought to be able to keep the team from going into any extended losing streaks.

Of course, Smoltz has been really lousy this year. The upshots are a) his lousiness only covers 40 innings, so maybe it's just a small sample size and he'll straighten things out, and b) he was in the American League East, facing much tougher offensive opposition than he will now. His first three starts for the Cardinals are against the Padres, Nationals, and Pirates. Two of those teams are in the bottom 4 in runs per game in the NL, so about the only way Smoltz could have it easier was if he faced San Francisco. Or the Reds.

Let's see, other positives. Smoltz has been pretty solid against right handed hitters (.649 OPS), though that's only 85 PAs. Unfortunately, lefties are killing him (1.248 OPS), though that's only 101 PAs. So in one case I have to hope the small sample means something, and with the other I have to hope it doesn't.

One positive for Smoltz is that the bar he has to hurdle as the #5 starter is pretty damn low.

Todd Wellenmeyer made 20 starts, totaling 110 innings (5.5 innings/start), surrendered 71 earned runs (5.81 ERA), 47 walks, and only 71 Ks.

Brad Thompson made 8 starts, totaling 43 innings (5.375 innings/start), surrendered 28 earned runs (5.86 ERA), walked 15, struck out 16.

Mitch Boggs made 7 starts, totaling 35.1 innings (5.047 innings/start), surrendered 18 earned runs (4.58 ERA), walked 22, K'd 31.

So all Smoltz has to do is be less terrible than those three, and he's doing fine. And in theory, I believe the Cardinals plan on making him a setup guy if/when the playoffs roll around, and so this will serve more to help him get in sync, and maybe help him figure out how to retire hitters from either side of the plate. Ultimately, the Cardinals can probably afford to give him a few starts now if it helps convince him to shore up their bullpen later. If they can make that happen.