Sunday, November 11, 2018

Looking at Franchises' Best Players - National League Central

So I didn't finish before the end of the season. Oh well.

Cincinnati Reds (existed since 1882):

Top Player: Pete Rose (78.1 WAR)

#24 Player: Ernie Lombardi (31.3)

# of Players >30 WAR: 28

# of Players >50 WAR: 7 (Rose, Johnny Bench, Barry Larkin, Frank Robinson, Joey Votto, Joe Morgan, Bid McPhee)

# of Players >100 WAR: 0

Can you make a starting lineup of the Top 9? The Reds don't have a single pitcher in their Top 9, so no. Also, they might have to play Frank Robinson in the OF to make room for Tony Perez and Joey Votto at third and first, which is sub-optimal.

Notes: I didn't expect Rose to finish first. I figured him to be somewhere in the middle of the pack. Of course, I also thought the Reds' all-time WAR leader would have more than 78, for as many great players as they've had.

Votto is the only active guy in here. If he produces at the rate he did this year, he'll pass Frank Robinson in 2020. If he can reach his 2017 level, he'll do it next season.

Frank Robinson placed 17th on Baltimore's list, so as predicted, he finished much higher here.

Joe Morgan was 10th on Houston's list, versus 6th with the Reds.

The highest ranked pitcher is Noodles Hahn, who places 10th with 44.6 WAR. Hahn only played 8 years in the majors, and last played for the Reds in 1905. Jose Rijo is the highest ranking pitcher I've actually heard of, in 18th at 38.1 WAR.

6 of the top 9 are players from the Big Red Machine era, Larkin, Votto, and McPhee being the exceptions. Of the 10-24 players, only four (Dave Concepcion, George Foster, Rijo, and Jim Maloney) played recently enough to have a color photograph. Which probably speaks to the Reds' futility the last 25+ years.

Milwaukee Brewers (existed since 1969):

Top Player: Robin Yount (77.3 WAR)

#24 Player: B.J. Surhoff (15.4)

# of Players >30 WAR: 5

# of Players >50 WAR: 2 (Yount and Paul Molitor)

# of Players >100 WAR: 0

Can you make a starting lineup of the Top 9? Not really. There are two pitchers, no catchers, and one guy who can only play first, plus two others who can play first and third, plus a guy who plays second and third, plus a guy who plays third, short, or second, and only two outfielders.

Notes: There are four active players on the list. Jonathan Lucroy is 19th, Yovani Gallardo is 17th, Carlos Gomez is 13th, and Ryan Braun is 3rd. Braun is the only one still on the Brewers, but considering he's 13.5 WAR behind Molitor, I don't see him moving any further up the list.

Prince Fielder is 21st on the list.

Bill Wegman is 18th on the list. The main reason I remember him is the movie Little Big League, where one of the best friends of the kid managing the Twins is always imploring him to 'use Wegman'. Although Bill Wegman spent his entire 11-year career in Milwaukee, so maybe it wasn't supposed to be the same guy.

Mike Caldwell (20th place) has this look on his face like he wants to sarcastically ask if you're really taking his picture for this. Either that or he's tired 'cause he's seen some shit.

Chicago Cubs (existed since 1876):

Top Player: Cap Anson (84.5 WAR)

#24 Player: John Clarkson (36.5 WAR)

# of Players >30 WAR: 32

# of Players >50 WAR: 9 (Anson, Ron Santo, Ryne Sandberg, Ernie Banks, Billy Williams, Sammy Sosa, Fergie Jenkins, Stan Hack, Gabby Hartnett)

Can you make a starting lineup of their Top 9? Not quite, they actually don't have enough outfielders. They have two different potential catchers, three guys who could play first, three guys who could play third, one pitcher, a shortstop, but only two outfielders.

Notes: I considered listing Cap Anson as "noted bigot Cap Anson", but I really would have needed to start that some time ago to be consistent. Ty Cobb would need that label as well, certainly.

Greg Maddux was one of the players with over 30 WAR who didn't make the top 24. Single-season RBI record holder Hack Wilson is another. The Cubs have had some really good players, they just don't seem to have had enough of them at the same time very often.

Carlos Zambrano was about even with John Clarkson on pitcher WAR. Once you added in his ability as a hitter, he jumped up to 17th place. He really annoyed the hell out of me, given how he liked to show off when he struck someone out, but would then get pissy if he thought somebody showed him up when they hit a home run.

The #18 player is named Hippo Vaughn. Played in the 1910s as a pitcher. 

Rick Reuschel finished 10th, at just over 49 WAR. I remember him as a San Francisco Giant, which came later, when he'd grown a solid mustache. Mordecai "Three-Finger" Brown is right behind him at 11th place.

Frank Chance, Joe Tinker, and Johnny Evers, of "Tinker to Evers to Chance" all finished surprisingly close to each other. Chance is 13th (45.5 WAR), Tinker is 14th (45.2), and Evers is 20th (39.5). I expected one of them to have been a dud as a player and miss the list entirely. You know, that the ditty was based on one season where all three of them were good, but normally one of them just sucked. Not the case.

Pittsburgh Pirates (existed since 1882):

Top Player: Honus Wagner (120.1 WAR)

#24 Player: Ed Morris (30.0)

# of Players >30 WAR: 23, since Morris isn't at more than 30.

# of Players >50 WAR: 9 (Wagner, Roberto Clemente, Paul Waner, Arky Vaughn, Willie Stargell, Wilbur Cooper, Babe Adams, Max Carey, Barry Bonds)

# of Players >100 WAR: 1 (Wagner)

Can you make a starting lineup of their top 9? Two pitchers and four outfielders, so no.

Notes: Bonds finished 2nd on the Giants' list.

The only active player on the list is Andrew McCutchen, who lands in the 14th spot at 39.3 WAR. If he'd been in Pittsburgh this year, he would have passed Sam Leever and been closing in on Bob Friend in 12th place.

There are not a lot of guys on here I remember. Bonds, obviously, and McCutchen. Jason Kendall is 23rd, and Andy van Slyke is 21st. I remember Dave Parker (18th) from his time in Oakland, and John Candelaria sounds familiar, although he doesn't look it.

Trading van Slyke to get Tony Pena really didn't work out for the Cardinals. Especially since it would be years before that got any consistent quality production out of right field (you'd have to get to Brian Jordan to find someone definitely better, but Felix Jose or Mark Whiten might be in the general ballpark).

St. Louis Cardinals (existed since 1882):

Top Player: Stan Musial (128.2 WAR)

#24 Player: Ted Breitenstein (32.3)

# of Players >30 WAR: 26

# of Players >50 WAR: 7 (Musial, Rogers Hornsby, Bob Gibson, Albert Pujols, Ozzie Smith, Ken Boyer, Enos Slaughter)

# of Players >100 WAR: 1 (Musial)

Can you make a starting lineup of their Top 9? Yes! Only one pitcher, Ted Simmons at catcher, Albert at first, Hornsby at second, Ozzie at SS, Boyer at 3rd, then Curt Flood in CF with Musial and Slaughter on either side. And if Slaughter objects to playing with black players, sub in the #10 guy, Lou Brock.

Notes: When I started this, I really did think there would be at least one other team where the top 9 worked out as neatly as that.

Albert Pujols (4th), Adam Wainwright (16th), and Yadier Molina (15th) are all still active. Molina passed Wainwright this year, along with Jim Edmonds and Ray Lankford.

He should catch Johnny Mize early next year. if he can post a league average (~2 WAR) season, he should make it to 12th place, passing Mize, Joe Medwick, and Harry Breechen. Ted Simmons is the only catcher ahead of him, but it'll take another 7.2 WAR to pass him, and Molina said he was retiring after 2020. I don't think he can make it, although it would be good for the Cardinals if he did (not so good for Carson Kelly, though).

It's harder to predict Wainwright, because I'm not sure what he has left in the tank, or how many chances he'll get. Catching Mize should be doable, but Medwick might be beyond reach. Without his hitting statistics, Wainwright wouldn't have made the Top 24 at all.

Frankie Frisch finished 23rd, with 32.6 WAR. He was 19th on the Giants' list, with 37.8 WAR. Keith Hernandez finished 20th at 34.5 WAR, after finishing 12th with 26.6 on the Mets' list.

Albert Pujols' 86.6 WAR would lead 14 other teams. He's only 4th on the Cardinals. This is your periodic reminder that the version of Albert that was on the Cardinals was really, really outstanding.

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Sunday, July 01, 2018

Stumbling To The Midpoint

81 games into the season, the St. Louis Cardinals might be garbage. They're 42-39, 5.5 games behind the Brewers in the Central. There are 7 teams with better records, and the Nationals are also 42-39. The Cardinals have been mostly lousy for the last month. They lost four series in a row to, respectively, the Marlins, Padres, Cubs, and Phillies. Managed a split with the Brewers and won 2 of 3 from Cleveland. The Braves have dominated them the last two nights. Even John Mozeliak seems to be out of patience. I'd be a lot more excited about that if I thought Matheny would actually get fired.

Wainwright and Michael Wacha are both on the DL. Carlos Martinez hasn't really pitched well since he came back off the DL. Luke Weaver is scuffling, with an ERA over 5 and a FIP over 4. Alex Reyes came back and made one start, then left because he tore a tendon nearly off the bone. And he had reported pain or discomfort after his last rehab start, which the team apparently ignored. Fantastic!  Miles Mikolas has continued to pitch mostly well, and Jack Flaherty is doing OK, aside from some issues with home runs.

Bud Norris has been mostly good, and Jordan Hicks has stopped walking people and started striking them out instead. Brebbia and Tuivailala have been OK. Greg Holland unfortunately came back from his injury stint, but hasn't been awful. Mike Mayers has been effective in largely a mop-up role. Brett Cecil is back, and not pitching horribly, but not pitching well, either. Austin Gomber, despite having been a starter his entire minor league career, has somehow become Matheny's favorite lefty reliever. Lack of other options I guess. Cecil's been questionable, Lyons is hurt, so is Ryan Sherriff. But Matheny has pitched him either three games in a row, or three in four days on multiple occasions. That doesn't seem like a smart move to make with someone used to a reliever's life, let alone someone used to pitching every five games.

Molina came back from the DL and is hitting pretty well. Which is good, because neither Francisco Pena or Carson Kelly were doing shit with the bat while Yadi was out. Jose Martinez is hitting well while still butchering first base. Kolten Wong, in contrast, is playing spectacular defense, somehow, but not hitting for shit. Matt Carpenter's bat has come alive, or the hits are falling now, and he's holding his own at third.

Paul DeJong was hitting until he was injured. He may not be back for a while yet. In his place, they've been starting Yairo Munoz a lot, rather than Greg Garcia, which seems stupid. Their OPSes are close, Munoz at .704 and Garcia at .696, but I'd trust Garcia's more OBP-driven approach over Munoz' hackfest. Also, I'd trust Garcia's below-average defense over Munoz', but I don't believe defense factors into Matheny's thinking often. Jedd Gyorko has slumped badly after a hot start to the season.

In the outfield, Dexter Fowler has continued to look useless. His OPS is almost as bad as Pena's, and he's playing abysmal defense. Which has meant more playing time for Harrison Bader, who has responded by playing excellent defense, running the bases pretty well, doing just enough with the bat. If you restrict him to facing mostly LHP, he'll probably be OK. In the good news front, Marcell Ozuna's bat, like Carpenter's, has come alive. He's still only slightly above leauge-average by OPS, but that's better than where he was 40 games ago. Unfortunately, Tommy Pham has been mired in a horrendous slump for six weeks and counting. His OPS+ is down to 99, his defense seems to be slipping. He isn't striking much more than before, but he's not drawing walks, and he keeps chopping everything into the ground.

And apparently I put a lot of my emotional investment with regards to this team into Pham. As he's gone into the tank, my interest has nosedived. I turned on a game this week, watched Carp get a leadoff double, only to see Tommy fail to even advance the runner by grounding out to third, got depressed, and turned the game off.

There just aren't a lot of guys I considered exciting on this team. Flaherty and Mikolas are good starters, but not in a spectacular way so far. Weaver and Carlos are struggling, and I haven't bought into Wacha since his arm problems first cropped up. Relief pitchers are whatever; I'm not getting excited about some guy that comes in and throws hard for one inning. Whoop-de-do. Yadi's resilience is impressive, but not spectacular. Carp's a nice player, but walking isn't exciting. I was hoping for a repeat of last season from Pham, where he did everything. That was a lot of fun.

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Friday, June 22, 2018

Looking at Franchises' Best Players - National League East

At this rate, I might finish this series sometime before the end of this season. By which point some of it will be out of date. Oh well.

Atlanta Braves (existed since 1876 in three different cities and a bunch of names):

Top Player: Hank Aaron (142.5 WAR)

#24 Player: Billy Nash (28.7)

# of Players >30 WAR: 22

# of Players >50 WAR: 10 (Aaron, Kid Nichols, Warren Spahn, Eddie Mathews, Phil Niekro, Chipper Jones, John Smoltz, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Andruw Jones)

# of Players >100 WAR: 2 (Aaron and Nichols)

Can you make a starting lineup of the Top 9? 5 of them are pitchers, so no.

Notes: I knew the Braves started in Boston, I didn't realize they'd been around as long as they had.

Nos. 6-11 are all players from my lifetime - #11 is Dale Murphy - but after that, it goes back to older players, mostly much older players. Freddie Freeman (#22) is the only guy who played for the Braves in the last 40 years from #12-24.

There's that old baseball saying about "Spahn and Sain and pray for rain," so I expected to see Johnny Sain on here. He was on the Braves for 7 years (plus he lost 3 seasons to military service), but only accumulated about 24 WAR during that time. I'm guessing that refrain was limited to '46-'48, when he was worth 7, 4.1, and 8.5 WAR. The next year he was below replacement level in 243 innings, which is kind of impressive.

As for Spahn, he's at 99.1 WAR, so just missed being the 3rd Brave with 100+ WAR.

Joe Torre is ranked 20th. I can already tell you he won't make either the Cardinals' or Mets' lists.

Smoltz, Maddux, and Glavine are all within 6 WAR of each other. When I was younger, Smoltz was the only one of the three I could stand, because he was the one I thought wasn't relying on the ump calling strikes on pitches six inches off the plate. Friggin' Maddux.

Chipper Jones is at 85.7 WAR, which is more than I would have expected. I think I pictured him as a poor third baseman, and figured his defense would have limited his value more. He is running negative values for his defense for his career, but it's like -0.9 dWAR for his entire career. Over 19 seasons, that's basically holding average.

New York Mets (existed since 1962):

Top Player: Tom Seaver (78.9)

#24 Player: Ron Darling (16.9)

# of Players >30 WAR: 6

# of Players >50 WAR: 2 (Seaver and David Wright)

# of Players >100 WAR: 0

Can you make a starting lineup of their Top 9? 4 pitchers, so no dice. They do have three-quarters of an infield, though.

Notes: I doubt Seaver is going to make it onto the Reds' list. They've had too much good history, too many good players who were with the team longer.

Considering the Mets were almost always bad in the '60s and '70s, it won't surprise you most of these guys are from the '80s or more recently. There's only 6 guys on here from the first 20 years: Seaver, Jerry Koosman (#4), Jon Matlack (#10), Jon Stearns (#18), Bud Harrelson (#19), and Cleon Jones (#20).

Glavine is on here, at #22, right behind John Olerud. Olerud was #13 on Seattle's list, and #19 on the Blue Jays'. Never in any place for too long, and never a phenomenal player, but always steadily productive wherever he played.

Rick Reed's #23. If I remember right, he couldn't be in the MLBPA because he was a replacement player during the brief stint the owners tried that in 1995. I understand they'd see him as a scab, but I can't fault the guy for taking his shot to get to the majors.

Carlos Beltran's ranked 6th on the Mets' list, he was 14th on the Royals list.

As far as active players, Jacob DeGrom is tied with Howard Johnson with 22 WAR for 14th. He should be able to pass Mike Piazza this year, but I doubt he'll catch Al Leiter until next season. Jose Reyes is 9th, but he's played badly enough this year he's sliding backwards. Does David Wright still qualify, or did he officially retire finally?

Philadelphia Phillies (existed since 1883):

Top Player: Mike Schmidt (106.8 WAR)

#24 Player: Chris Short (29.4)

# of Players >30 WAR: 23

# of Players >50 WAR: 7 (Schmidt, Robin Roberts, Steve Carlton, Chase Utley, Pete Alexander, Ed Delahanty, Richie Ashburn)

# of Players >100 WAR: 1 (Schmidt)

Can you make a starting lineup of their Top 9? 3 of their Top 5 are pitchers, so no. They needed a shortstop and a catcher. Jimmy Rollins was 10th, so they were almost there.

Notes: 11 of the 24 are from recent enough their picture is in color, which is better than I would have expected. The Phillies have been around a long time. Of course, they've been pretty miserable for most of their history.

Of active players, Utley is 4th, narrowly ahead of Pete Alexander (61.8 to 61.5). Cole Hamels is 11th. Almost halfway between Rollins and Johnny Callison.

Bobby Abreu is 9th. I knew Abreu was in Philly for awhile, and that he was a stead, pretty good player. It's still weird to see him that high up the list of a franchise that's existed over 130 years. I could Abreu up near the top of some franchise without a lot of history. I underestimated him.

On less a pleasant note, loudmouth buffoon and failed businessman Curt Schilling ranks 15th.

Washington Nationals (existed since 1969, as the Expos):

Top Player: Gary Carter (55.8 WAR)

#24 Player: Bryn Smith (17.2)

# of Players >30 WAR: 7

# of Players >50 WAR: 1 (Carter)

# of Players >100 WAR: 0

Can you make a starting lineup of their Top 9? No. They do have two pitchers, Steve Rogers and Dennis Martinez, but they also have 4 outfielders and no middle infielders.

Notes: Tim Raines (49.2) and Andre Dawson (48.4) both just missed the 50 WAR mark.

Steve Rogers is one of the only guys on here I've never heard of, along with Bob Bailey (#21) and Ron Fairly (#23). I do remember Bryn Smith because he was on the Cardinals for a couple years in the early '90s. 1991 went pretty well, 1990 not so much.

Given that the Nationals have been pretty good this decade, there are quite a few active players on here. Anthony Rendon is #22, and could probably pass Bailey and Rusty Staub this year. Jordan Zimmerman is 13th, with Gio Gonzalez right behind him, but probably not for much longer. #9-11 goes Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg, and Max Scherzer. Ryan Zimmerman is #6, but he'll pass Tim Wallach here soon. Or maybe not, he's been exactly replacement level this year. He only needs 0.3 WAR to do it, though!

So many guys I have fond memories of on here. Vlad Guerrero is 7th, Larry Walker is 12th, after ranking 2nd for the Rockies. Vlad was just a lot of fun to watch, even when he's hitting a homer off a pitch your team throws a foot off the plate. Livan Hernandez is 17th, and Pedro Martinez is 19th. I'm certain we'll see Livan on the next team's list, and Pedro was #8 on the Red Sox' list. I thought maybe DeLino DeShields would be on here, but no dice.

Miami Marlins (existed since 1993):

Top Player: Giancarlo Staton (35.2 WAR)

#12 Player: Marcell Ozuna (14.1)

# of Players >30 WAR: 1

# of Players >50 WAR: 0

# of Players >100 WAR: 0

Can you make a starting lineup of their Top 9? Not quite. No catcher, and either no third baseman or no first baseman, depending where you play Miguel Cabrera. Two second basemen though, Luis Castillo and Dan Uggla, which is unusual.

Notes: Best estimate is the #24 player would be Dee Gordon, at 8.9 WAR.

Either I remembered Livan Hernandez as being a Marlin a lot more than 4 years, or being a much better pitcher (3.3 WAR). Both probably. Whoops.

5 of the top 12 are still active, if we count Hanley Ramirez. Of course, because this is the Marlins we're talking about, none of those 5 are actually still with the team. They traded away Nos. 1 (Stanton), 6 (Christian Yelich), and 12 (Ozuna) this offseason. The Marlins: always getting rid of good players before they do something inconvenient like build a winning tradition. Yes, I know it's actually about trading them before they get expensive. The fact the Marlins are almost always a fucking trash fire is merely an unexpected side effect, right?

Kevin Brown's #10 on the list, after being #24 on the Rangers' list. The Marlins let him sign with the Dodgers on a $105 million contract, and I think he made about one start for each million. OK, that's an exaggeration. He made 164 starts over the duration of the contract. Sucks for the Dodgers and Yankees.

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Saturday, April 28, 2018

Looking at Franchises' Best Players - National League West

I have some actual free time this weekend, so let's try and finish another of these. Moving to the NL West, with a couple of stories franchises, and three, let's say less-storied teams and leave it at that.

Los Angeles Dodgers (existed since 1884):

Top Player: Don Drysdale (67.2 WAR)

#24 Player: Pedro Guerrero (32.7)

# of Players >30 WAR: 29

# of Players >50 WAR: 8 (Drysdale, Pee Wee Reese, Duke SNider, Jackie Robinson, Clayton Kershaw, Zack Wheat, Dazzy Vance, Willie Davis

# of Players >100 WAR: 0

Can you make a starting lineup of the Top 9? Four pitchers - Drysdale, Kershaw, Vance, and Koufax -say no. But they do have a complete outfield, and 3/4ths of an infield.

Notes: I would have expected the Dodgers' top player to have more WAR than that. A bit like the White Sox and the Athletics. Not a high peak, but a lot of guys bunched together. It drops off fast in the last third of the list, though. Gil Hodges is 14th at 44.3 WAR, but by 16th, Fernandomania is down to 36.9 WAR.

Koufax and Don Sutton tied with 49 WAR apiece.

I remember Guerrero from his years with the Cardinals, which, outside of his first full season in 1989, did not go well. Across 5 seasons, he was worth 1.7 WAR total. But that 1989, he hit .311 with 17 HRs and 42 doubles. His poor defense negated a lot of the value of his hitting, though. Steve Garvey, who is 17th, is in a similar boat. He spent his last five years with the Padres, and was worth 1.4 WAR total across those years.

The next three guys after Guerrero would have been Davey Lopes, Maury Wills, and Mike Piazza.

Kershaw is the only active player on the list. He should pass Jackie Robinson in the next month. If he can post a 5.5 WAR season, he'll pass Duke Snider. So he has a real good shot of surpassing Drysdale, ultimately. Also, I didn't realize Kershaw had been worth almost 2 WAR with his bat.

San Diego Padres (existed since 1969):

Top Player: Tony Gwynn (69.2 WAR)

#24 Player: Will Venable (12.8)

Players with >30 WAR: 2

Players with >50 WAR: 1

Players with >100 WAR: 0

Can you make a starting lineup of their Top 9? There's 5 pitchers on the list, including one closer (Trevor Hoffman naturally), so no.

Notes: That is pretty disappointing. Just for comparison, the Royals have also been around since '69. They also have one player above 50 WAR, but Brett is almost 20 ahead of Gwynn. And they had 8 players above 30 WAR. Hell, the Mariners have existed 8 years less, and they have 4 players above 50 WAR.

For the record, the other player above 30 WAR is Dave Winfield.

Chase Headley (11th) and Adrian Gonzalez (6th) are the only active players on the list. Neither is doing well so far this year. Gonzalez has been worth -0.4 WAR so far for the Mets, and Headley is back with the Padres, and at -0.1 WAR. If Headly could manage even 1 WAR this year, he'd jump to 8th, behind Andy Benes, and ahead of Randy Jones. If he can manage 1.5 WAR, he'd pass Gonzalez. He was worth 1.8 last year for the Yankees, and 2.6 the year before, so there's a decent chance he has that in him.

One advantage to the Padres being a young franchise is I at least vaguely remember most of these guys. Benes was a Cardinal for 5 years. Jake Peavy is third on the franchise list. Ryan Klesko is 18th. I hated Ryan Klesko when he was on the Braves. I think because he seemed like a such a big, clumsy, swing-and-miss guy, and I hate watching those guys play ball.

As low as the bar is for entry, I thought Ozzie Smith might make the list, despite only being a Padre for 4 seasons, and not being able to hit a lick while he was there. He ended up at 11 WAR, so if he'd stuck around one more year, maybe. 5 of those 11 came in 1980, his best season hitting (when he was still almost 30% below league average by OPS).

San Francisco Giants (existed since 1883):

Top Player: Willie Mays (154.8 WAR)

#24 Player: Art Devlin (34.3)

# of Players with >30 WAR: 34

# of Players with >50 WAR: 11 (Mays, Bonds, Mel Ott, Christy Mathewson, Amos Rusie, Carl Hubbell, Juan Marichal, Willie McCovey, Bill Terry Roger Conner, Mickey Welch)

# of Players with >100 WAR: Mays, Bonds, Ott, Mathewson

Can you make a starting lineup out of the Top 9? Too many pitchers and outfielders, not enough middle infielders. As in, no middle infielders or catchers.

Notes: Matt Cain just missed 30 WAR. Madison Bumgarner is a good enough hitter it boosted him by 6 WAR above what his pitching stats provide. If he'd been healthy this year, he would almost certainly made it to the Top 24.

Position players with >30 WAR outside the Top 24 included Matt Williams, Robby Thompson, Jeff Kent, and Jack Clark.

There's an almost 35 WAR drop from Mathewson to Rusie, but Rusie was valuable enough he'd have been top player on several of the teams we've looked at so far.

Frankie Frisch is 19th on the Giants' list, with 37.8 WAR. He was almost that valuable for the Cardinals, so we'll see if he make it on their list.

I'm also curious to see how high Bonds ranks on the Pirates' list. They've had some pretty great players, though. Barry's father, Bobby Bonds, is 18th on the Giants.

All I know about Travis Jackson, who is 13th at 44 WAR, is his picture makes him look a little like actor Telly Savalas.

Will Clark is 21st. A lot of Cardinals' fans hated him for the issues the Giants and Cardinals had in the late 1980s. I don't really remember those years, other than I liked Will Clark's swing. Designed for line drives, with just a slight uppercut. Jim Edmonds' swing reminded me of it a little, although Jim had more of an uppercut on his. Clark did have one really great half-season for the Cardinals before he retired, filling in for an injured Mark McGwire on the 2000 Cardinals.

Buster Posey is the only active player in the top 24, at 17th. He's been worth 9 wins the last two years, so about 4.5 per year. He's already at 0.6 this year, so he's probably good for another 4 this season. That'd be enough to get him to 14th, moving past Mike Tiernan, Art Fletcher, and Larry Doyle.

Colorado Rockies (existed since 1993):

Top Player: Todd Helton (61.2 WAR)

#12 Player: Jhoulys Chacin (14.9)

# of Players with >30 WAR: 3

# of Players with >50 WAR: 1

# of Players with >100 WAR: 0

Can you make a starting lineup of their Top 9? Very close. But they have two pitchers - Ubaldo Jimenez and Aaron Cook - and two third basemen - Nolan Arenado and Vinny Castilla. No catcher, no second baseman.

Notes: My rough estimate is that Armando Reynoso is 24th, at around 8.5 WAR.

Larry Walker is 2nd in the franchise, at 48 WAR. I expect he'll be on the Expos' list as well. Arenado is 4th. He probably won't catch Tulowitzki this year, as Tulo is about 11 WAR right now, but probably by the end of next year. Carlos Gonzalez is 5th, but I doubt he'll climb any higher.

DJ Lamehieu and Charlie Blackmon, 10th and 11th, respectively, will both probably pass Cook and Castilla this season. Jimenez and Matt Holliday will probably take another year.

Arizona Diamondbacks (since 1998):

Top Player: Randy Johnson (50.8 WAR)

#12 Player: Stephen Drew 13.2

# of Players 2ith >30 WAR: 4

# of Players with >50 WAR: 1

# of Players with >100 WAR: 0

Can you make a starting lineup of their Top 9? No. Four starting pitchers and three centerfielders.

Notes: The 4 pitchers were Big Unit, Brandon Webb, Schilling, and Dan Haren. The centerfielders, Steve Finley, A.J. Pollock, and Chris Young.

The #24 spot probably goes to one of the following three pitcher: Patrick Corbin, Ian Kennedy, or Byung-Hyun Kim. Probably Kim, as both Corbin and Kennedy were able to add to their 8.3 pitching WAR with some hitting. Plus, Corbin is still playing for the D'backs.

Matt Williams couldn't make the Giants' Top 24, but he'd have been 23rd for Arizona. Zack Grienke is moving up the list as well, at roughly 9 WAR right now.

Pollock (6th) and Paul Goldschmidt (2nd) are the only active players currently on Arizona in the top 12. Pollock is at least a couple years away from catching Schilling for 5th. Goldschmidt, even at his 5+ WAR per season pace, is at least 3 years away from catching Randy Johnson.

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Saturday, April 07, 2018

Looking At Franchises' Best Players - American League East

Well, I kind let this fall by the wayside. Whoops. Moving on to the American League East.

Baltimore Orioles (existed since 1901, counting the St. Louis Browns and Milwaukee Brewers, for one year):

Top Player: Cal Ripken Jr. (95.9 WAR)

#24 Player: Ned Garver (26.8)

# of Players with >30 WAR: 19

# of Players with >50 WAR: 5 (Ripken, Brooks Robinson, Jim Palmer, Eddie Murray, George Sisler)

# of Players with >100 WAR: 0

Can you make a starting lineup of the Top 9?  No. They have 3 pitchers - Palmer, Mike Mussina, and the excellently named Urban Shocker - and between Ripken, Robinson, and Mark Belanger, they have three guys who play either third base of shortstop. No catchers, not enough outfielders.

Notes: Given what I've always heard about the Browns being a lousy franchise, there are more of them on this list than I would have expected. Only 8 of the 24, but the franchise has been the Orioles for over 60 years now, so you'd expect Baltimore players to dominate. My dad's always told me his dad was a St. Louis Browns' fan. So bad choices in teams runs in the family.

Two active players on the list, Adam Jones (18th) and Manny Machado (22nd). Of course, Machado probably won't be an Oriole after this season. If he repeats his 2017, he'll move up to 18th or 19th. If he can replicate his 2015 or 2016, he could to at least 16th. 16th is probably about as far as Jones can move up, unless he can turn the clock back to 2013-2014.

Frank Robinson is on here, at 17th. I expect he's going to place much higher on the Cincinnati Reds' list when/if I get there.

Mark Belanger is basically the only guy in MLB history to have been worth as many runs defensively as Ozzie Smith. Smith has him beat by about 25 WAR, because while Ozzie was 13% below average as a hitter in his career, Belanger was 32% below average. Also, Ozzie was worth about 80 runs as a baserunner, Belanger 16. Still, Belanger was good enough to be part of some World Series winning teams.

Boston Red Sox (since 1901):

Top Player: Ted Williams (123.1 WAR)

#24 Player: Tim Wakefield (32.4). Whoo, knuckleball pitcher represent!

Players with >30 WAR: 31ish. I looked up their Top 50 in WAR for Batters and Pitchers, and added on everyone over 30 WAR. That might not be taking into account negative offense value for pitchers from pre-DH, though, but it's the best estimate I've got.

Players with >50 WAR: 11 (Williams, Yaz, Clemens, Boggs, Cy Young, Dwight Evans, Tris Speaker, Pedro Martinez, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Bobby Doerr).

Players with >100 WAR: 1 (Williams)

Can you make a starting lineup of the Top 9? Well, Clemens, Cy Young, and Pedro are all pitchers, so no. Plus, four outfielders, and David Ortiz, who basically plays no position. Friggin' DHs.

Notes: Pedroia is the only current player on the list, although there are several guys that were playing recently. Clemens, Pedro, Ortiz, obviously. Also, Wakefield and Manny Ramirez (23rd), and Nomar (14th). Pedroia can probably pass Pedro and Big Papi this year, but unless he puts up 3.5 WAR, he won't catch Tris Speaker.

Babe Ruth is 15th on the list, behind Nomar (41.2) and ahead of Carlton Fisk (39.5 WAR). I expect Ruth is going to finish a lot higher on the next team's list.

Jimmie Foxx is 20th on Boston's list, after being 3rd on the Athletics'. Lefty Grove, who was 4th for Oakland, is 13th for Boston. Tris Speaker is 7th here, and 2nd for Cleveland. I'm curious if Clemens is going to make Toronto's list, because he had a hell of a two years there.

15 guys on the list have color photos, 6 that were part of the post-2000 teams. Which seems about right. This has been one of the most extended periods of the Red Sox being a relevant franchise.

New York Yankees (since 1903):

Top Player: Babe Ruth (142.4) Yeah, that's quite a bit higher of a finish.

#24 Player: Earle Combs (42.5 WAR). Christ, that's their 24th best player?

Players with >30 WAR: 36. 12 guys didn't make the Top 24, including Don Mattingly, Mike Mussina, and Rickey Henderson.

Players with >50 WAR: 13, same as Detroit. Ruth, Gehrig, Mantle, DiMaggio, Jeter, Yogi Berra, Red Ruffing, Whitey Ford, Mariano Rivera, Bill Dickey, A-Rod, Willie Randolph, and Andy Pettitte.

Players with >100 WAR: 3 Ruth, Gehrig, Mantle.

Can you make a starting lineup of the Top 9?  Actually, not too bad, but no. Got the outfield, the catcher and first baseman, and Jeter will stand at SS. But the last three guys are pitchers, so they're missing a second and third baseman.

Notes: Robinson Cano is 19th, between Thurman Munson and Graig Nettles, the only active player left. Although Brett Gardner was one of the 12 guys over 30 WAR not in the Top 24. Maybe he can make his way further up the list.

Alex Rodriguez finishes 11th, higher than he did with the Rangers, but lower than with the Mariners.

DiMaggio looks so forlorn in his picture, while Gehrig has this skeptical look on his face. Really, you're going to take my picture?

Red Ruffing's position is listed as pitcher and pinch hitter. His OPS+ is only 81, but he did collect over 500 hits and 36 HRs.

I read an autobiography for Whitey Ford when I was in junior high. I mainly remember the parts when his velocity was falling off and he was trying to use his wedding ring to doctor the ball without getting caught.

Toronto Blue Jays (existed since 1977):

Top Player: Dave Stieb (57.1 WAR)

#24 Player: Aaron Hill (17.1 WAR)

Players with >30 WAR: 5 (Stieb, Roy Halladay, Tony Fernandez, Jose Bautista, Carlos Delgado).

Players with >50 WAR: 1

Players with >100 WAR: 0.

Can you make a starting lineup of the Top 9? 4 starting pitchers says no.

Notes: Edwin Encarnacion (12th, 24.3 WAR), and Josh Donaldson (18th, 20.9 WAR) are the only two active players on the list. Although Jose Bautista retired just last year, and Aaron Hill played last year as well. But Hill had been below replacement level 4 of the last 5 seasons of his career. If this "dead arm" thing doesn't impact Donaldson's value too much, he might pass Encarnacion on the lis by the end of the season.

Clemens wound up 20th on the Blue Jays' list, after only two seasons.

I always liked Dave Stieb. Maybe because I briefly considered picking Toronto as my American League team back in the 80s, when I was thinking about having an AL team. So there are a lot of guys on here I remember from their early baseball cards, but I couldn't tell you anything about Jesse Barfield, for example. As for Stieb, he kept coming so close to getting no-hitters, and then they'd get broken up in the 8th or the 9th. My parents and I were at a Twins/Royals game in Minneapolis one year, when he had one going against the Yankees. Mattingly broke it up in the 9th, I think. I think Stieb got one eventually, though.

Pat Hentgen formed a heck of a tandem with Clemens for those two years. But he didn't have anything left in the tank by the time he came to St. Louis in 2000.

Speaking of former Cardinals, I was hoping Todd Stottlemyre would be on here, but no dice. He was worth just under 11 WAR for the Jays.

Tampa Bay Rays: (since 1998):

Top Player: Evan Longoria (50.0 WAR)

#12 Player: Aubrey Huff (11.8 WAR).

Players with >30 WAR: 3.

Players with >50 WAR: 1. Technically Longoria isn't over 50, but it's close enough.

Players with >100 WAR: 0

Can you make a starting lineup of their Top 9?  Nah. Three pitchers, no catchers.

Notes: For these franchises that haven't been around long, Baseball-Reference only went to Top 12. My rough estimate is Jeremy Hellickson (7.2 WAR) would be #24.

If it did go to 24, Fred McGriff would be on here, around 20, which is roughly where he was for Toronto as well.

Seven of the Top 12 are still in the league, the exceptions being Carl Crawford, Julio Lugo, Carlos Pena, Desmond Jennings, and Aubrey Huff.

Kevin Kiermaier is the only guy on this list still playing for the Rays. Unsurprising given their teardown of the last few seasons. Chris Archer will probably be on here soon. Based on his pitching WAR, he should already be ahead of Huff, which I guess means his scant batting chances have tanked his value just enough.

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Saturday, December 16, 2017

Looking At Franchises' Best Players - American League Central

I had honestly almost forgotten I was doing this. Let's move on to the AL Central, a division with a few more teams with long histories than the AL West. So expect deeper lists here.

Chicago White Sox (existed since 1901):

Top Player: Luke Appling (74 WAR)

#24 Player: Gary Peters (26 WAR)

# of Players with >30 WAR: 19

# of Players with >50 WAR: 8 (Appling, Ted Lyons, Frank Thomas, Eddie Collins, Ed Walsh, Red Faber, Wilbur Wood, Eddie Cicotte)

# of Players with >100 WAR: 0

Can you make a starting line up of the Top 9? Well, six of their Top 9 are pitchers (Appling, Eddie Collins, and the Big Hurt being the exceptions), so no.

Notes: I expected the White Sox would have someone with a higher total, but they're like the Athletics: deep, but not a real high peak. Frank Thomas (34d, 68 WAR) and Mark Buerhle (in 9th at 48 WAR) are the only two players from the last 50 years, maybe longer than that, in the Top 10.

Eddie Collins comes in slightly higher (#4) on the White Sox list than he did the A's (#5), but he also has 9 more WAR for the ChiSox.

Going by the picture Baseball-Reference used, Ed Walsh had seen some shit. Guy looks scary intense.

Shoeless Joe came in at #23. Paul Konerko finished tied at 28 WAR with Carlton Fisk and Ray Schalk. Luis Aparicio is in 15th place, and Minnie Minoso is 12th, with 41 WAR. I know Fisk was in the later days of his career by his time in Chicago, but I'd pictured him having more in the tank than that.

Chris Sale is the only player currently active on the list. He was 18th, at 31 WAR.

Minnesota Twins (existed since 1901, cripes we're giving them credit for the Washington Senators?):

Top Player: Walter Johnson (165 WAR).

#24 Player: Frank Viola (27 WAR).

# of Players >30 WAR: 20.

# of Players >50 WAR: 6. (Johnson, Rod Carew, Harmon Killebrew, Joe Mauer, Sam Rice, Kirby Puckett)

# of Players >100 WAR: 1

Can you make a starting lineup of the Top 9? Close. Don't know what the defense would be like, but put Killebrew at 3rd and Carew at 2nd, you're only missing a SS and LF. 3 pitchers, though.

Notes: Walter Johnson is over 100 WAR ahead of Carew, which is staggering. Carew is a Hall of Famer, and the gap between him and Johnson is an equal to an even better Hall of Famer. Probably that gap in the level of competition rearing its head again. But regardless, you've got to be damn good for a long time to accumulate that kind of value.

Brad Radke was the 3rd pitcher in the Top 9 besides Johnson and Blyleven.

Johan Santana came in 19th at 35 WAR, just behind Jim Kaat. My dad's a big fan of Kaat, who spent the last four seasons of his 25-year career with the Cardinals. As B-R lists him as below replacement level for those years, he will not be making the Cardinals' list.

Joe Mauer is the only currently active player. He's 7 WAR behind Killebrew, so I'm not sure he can catch him. Two more years like last year would do it, but if he regresses to his 2016 performance, it'll take 4 more years.

There's a clump of 7 guys in the 40s, which isn't too shabby. I thought having the Senators' history as part of theirs would give the Twins a deeper list, but I think I underestimated how miserable the Senators were for most of their history. The Twins' players account for 15 of the 24 on the list, even though they've existed for a few years (57) less than the Senators (60).

Kansas City Royals (existed since 1969):

Top Player: George Brett (88 WAR).

#24 Player: Johnny Damon (17 WAR).

# Players >30 WAR: 8

# Players >50 WAR: 1. Brett, obviously.

# Players >100 WAR: 0

Can you make a starting lineup of the Top 9? The 3 pitchers (Appier, Saberhagen, Gubicza) say no, but you could get close if you were willing to play Alex Gordon at 3rd and Brett at 1st. Still no C or SS, though.

Notes: The Royals do have 4 (Appier, Saberhagen, Willie Wilson, Amos Otis) players in the 40s, which isn't terrible. It isn't great, either. The Mariners have more guys above 50 WAR than KC, and they've existed 10 years less. Although the Mariners beat the Angels and Rangers on that score, too, and they both predate the Royals.

Only having 3 players in the 30s is unimpressive, though. Really fast drop off on this list.

I've read a lot of Royals' fans over the years talk about how underappreciated Kevin Appier is. I hadn't ever really bought in, but 47 WAR is pretty good.

Dan Quisenberry is 12th with 25 WAR. He spent a couple years near the end with the Cardinals, where I really dug that submarine delivery.

As far as currently active players go, there are quite a few. Alex Gordon, obviously, although maybe for not much longer if he doesn't regain the ability to hit. Zack Greinke is in 10th, Lorenzo Cain is tied with Quisenberry right behind him. Recently retired Carlos Beltran is 14th with 24 WAR. Salvador Perez is in 21st with 19 WAR. Since I assume Cain is going to sign elsewhere this offseason, Perez is the only one likely to keep climbing the ladder. If he can match the ~2.5 WAR he's been worth each of the last 3 years, that should get him to 18th next year, between Charlie Liebrandt and Mike Montgomery.

Detroit Tigers (since 1901):

Top Player: Ty Cobb (144 WR)

#24 Player: Rudy York (31 WAR)

# of Players >30 WAR: More than 24, probably.

# of Players >50 WAR: 13, crap. Cobb, Al Kaline, Charlie Gehringer, Lou Whitaker, Alan Trammell, Harry Heilman, Sam Crawford, Hal Newhouser, Justin Verlander, Hank Grennburg, Norm Cash, Tommy Bridges, Miguel Cabrera

# of Players >100 WAR: 1.

Can you make a starting lineup of the Top 9? Nope, and it's not really having too many pitchers (they have two). They have 3 guys B-R lists as Rightfielder/First baseman. No catcher, no third baseman.

Notes: Now that's a deep team. 13 guys with at least 50 WAR? Damn. 8 of those guys have more than 60, and the Top 5 are all at 70 WAR or more. I had the impression Hank Greenburg was one of the greatest players in history, and he barely makes Detroit's Top 10.  It's what you'd expect though. The Tigers have had a lot of stretches of being really good over their long history.

John Hiller, Chet Lemon, and Lance Parrish would all be players with more than 30 WAR who didn't make the Top 24. Parrish is at 29.9, but I assume they'd round up.

Jack Morris is on here, 21st place, with 38 WAR. So he's in the same place on this list as Salvador Perez was on the Royals', but with twice the WAR.

Mickey Lolich's (15th, 47 WAR) picture makes him look a bit like Paul Newman.

The guy just ahead of Lolich is called Dizzy Trout, which is a fantastic name. Pitch like Dizzy Dean, do everything else like Mike Trout. And if the Angels had him, they probably still couldn't make the playoffs.

Verlander and Cabrera are the only two active guys on the list. Verlander was traded away, but Cabrera's still there. Of course, he was below replacement level last year, and has 6 years left on that contract, at about $30 million per. Ouch. If he doesn't turn things around, he's going to descend the list, rather than climb it.

Cleveland Indians (existing since 1901, albeit as the Blues, Bronchos, and Naps the first 14 years):

Top Player: Nap Lajoie (79 WAR)

#24 Player: Elmer Flick (31 WAR).

# of Players >30 WAR: At least 30.

# of Players >50 WAR: 5. Lajoie, Tris Speaker, Bob Feller, Lou Boudreau, Stan Coveleski.

# of Players >100 WAR: 0

Can you make a starting lineup of the Top 9? Nope, too many outfielders. 3 CFs (Speaker, Kenny Lofton, Earl Averill), plus Lajoie (sine Thome would have to play first).

Notes: Not quite what I was expecting. It's a deep list, but a low peak, like the Athletics. They do have two players with more than 70 WAR in Lajoie and Speaker, and Feller and Boudreau are both in the 60s. 9 players between 40 and 50 WAR, though, which isn't bad. On par with the Twins. I'm guessing the 50 years of being terrible post-World War II have something to do with the state of this list.

There are at least four players who would qualify as having more than 30 WAR who didn't make the list, including Omar Vizquel and Manny Ramirez. Well, Manny's at 29.9, but as with Lance Parrish, I'm assuming they'd round up.

There's Shoeless Joe again, this time at 19th with 34 WAR. Larry Doby is 13th, at 43 WAR.

As you might have guessed from my comment about the lack of color photos, there are no active players on this list. I would have expected another couple of guys from the late '90s teams to have made it on here, at least at the bottom.

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Friday, November 17, 2017

Looking At Franchise's Best Players - American League West

Baseball-Reference has started including, on each team's franchise page, a list of their top 24 (or 12, in a few cases) players, as measured by Wins Above Replacement. So I'm going to go through each division and look at some of the results. We'll take it one division at a time.

Los Angeles Angels (existed since 1961):

Top Player: Mike Trout (55 WAR)

#24 Player: Doug DeCinces (18 WAR)

# of Players with >30 WAR: 10

# of Players with >50 WAR: 2 (Trout and Chuck Finley)

# with >100 WAR: 0

Can you make a starting lineup out of the Top 9? No. Four pitchers (Finley, Nolan Ryan, Jered Weaver, Frank Tanana).

Comments: Does it speak more to how great Mike Trout is that he's already the most valuable player in team history, or to how the Angels have had any longtime standout players in their 55+ year history? There are some pretty good players on there - Nolan Ryan (#5), Brian Downing (#6), Vlad Guerrero (#16), Jim Edmonds (#22) - just none of them were there for long. Everybody from #11-22 has a WAR somewhere in the 20s, which suggest either they were really good for a few years, or unspectacular for several years.

Rod Carew's number was retired by the team, but is not in the top 24, as he generated 17.3 WAR for the Angels (versus around 64 WAR for the Twins).

Oakland Athletics (counting time in Philadelphia and KC, existed since 1901):

Top Player: Eddie Plank (76 WAR)

#24: Barry Zito (30 WAR)

# of Players with >30 WAR: 24

# of Players with >50 WAR: 8 (Plank, Rickey Henderson, Jimme Foxx, Lefty Grove, Eddie Collins, Sal Bando, Al Simmons, Eddie Rommel).

# of Players with >100 WAR: 0

Can you make a starting lineup out of their Top 9? No. Three pitchers (Plank, Lefty Grove, Eddie Rommel), only two outfielders.

Comments: It appears the A's need to look into exploiting the untapped "Eddie" market. Seems to have worked out pretty well for them in their Philly days.

I expected the A's to have someone with a higher total, but instead it's a deep roster, but with a low peak. Their 24th most valuable player would be 11th on the Angels list. Eddie Collins, their #5 player, would be first on L.A.'s, (until about one month into next season at the rate Trout accumulates value).

The list skews old, which may be a recurring theme. It seems like it was easier for players in the early 20th Century to accumulate value compared to now. Maybe because there was so much bigger of a gap between guys who were actually good, and the guys who wouldn't have been in the league if black players weren't barred from playing. The best guys padded their numbers against the Sisters of the Poor.

Anyway, only 10 of Oakland's guys played recently enough to get a color picture. Sal Bando and Bert Campaneris played long enough ago to have been Kansas City Athletics. Eric Chavez, Tim Hudson, and Barry Zito are the only ones to play for them in the 21st Century. Rickey Henderson finished 2nd overall; I expect to see him on at least one more team's Top 24.

Texas Rangers (since 1961, including time as the Washington Senators):

Top Player: Ivan Rodriguez (49 WAR)

#24: Kevin Brown (17 WAR)

# of Players with >30 WAR: 10

# of Players with >50 WAR: 0

# of Players with >100 WAR: 0

Can you make a starting lineup out of their Top 9? No. Two pitchers, two catchers, no outfielders

Comments: With all the big offensive numbers members of the Rangers have put up, I'd expected somebody to be further up there. I also expected Nolan Ryan to be on here somewhere, but no, he generated 15 WAR for the Rangers. Still got his number retired by them. Someone who will be on two lists is Fergie Jenkins, who ranks 17th here, and will come in significantly higher on the Cubs' list.

Alex Rodriguez is tied with Michael Young for 13th on the list. Adrian Beltre is third, behind Pudge and Rafael Palmeiro. He's only three WAR behind Palmeiro, so he might be able to catch him, depending on how much he's got left in the tank. I keep expecting him to show his age. Other than him, Elvis Andrus is the only person currently on their roster on the list, at #11.

Charlie Hough and Kenny Rogers are the most valuable pitchers in franchise history, at 33 and 32 WAR, which puts them 7th and 8th, respectively. Fairly light on pitchers, only 5 total (Yu Darvish being the only one I haven't mentioned so far).

Seattle Mariners: (since 1977):

Top Player: Ken Griffey Jr. (70 WAR)

#24 Player: Nelson Cruz (13 WAR)

# of Players with >30 WAR: 7

# of Players with >50 WAR: 4 (Griffey, Edgar Martinez, Ichiro, King Felix)

# of Players with >100 WAR: 0

Can you make a starting line of their Top 9? While I'm loathe to doubt Ichiro, three pitchers (Felix, Randy Johnson, Jamie Moyer), no catcher, and they'd have to risk playing Edgar Martinez somewhere on the field.

Comments: It drops off fast. Felix is at 52 WAR, the next guy is the Big Unit at 39 WAR. By the time you reach Alvin Dark in the 12th spot, you're below 20 WAR. Which reflects the relatively short time the franchise has existed, as well as the fact they were pretty awful for the first 15 years.

Alex Rodriguez is on here, at #6. Adrian Beltre is also here, at #10 (21 WAR). Robinson Cano is #11, if he replicates last year, he'll jump to 9th. If Nelson Cruz can duplicate his results last year, that would get him to around 17th or 18th. Kyle Seager is in 8th, he's probably a couple of seasons away from catching Moyer, maybe more if this year is indicative of his level of play going forward.

Speaking of people on multiple teams' lists, Mark Langston is on here (19 WAR) and on the Angels' (26 WAR) list, and he's in 13th place for both teams. Kind of a neat coincidence.

Houston Astros (since 1962):

Top Player: Jeff Bagwell (79 WAR)

#24 Player: Richard Hidalgo (17 WAR)

# of Players with >30 WAR: 10

# of Players with >50 WAR: 3 (Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Jose Cruz)

# of Players with >100 WAR: 0

Can you make a starting lineup of the Top 9? Nope. Two pitchers (Roy Oswalt and Larry Dierker), and no shortstops or third basemen.

Comments: Jose Altuve is 11th right now, at 29 WAR. He should pass Dierker (32 WAR) in 8th easily next year.

Nolan Ryan may not have made it with the Rangers, but he does qualify with Houston, coming in 15h with 23 WAR. J.R. Richard in 18th is the last player above 20 WAR. There's a pretty big drop between Jim Wynn at 7th and Dierker, from 41 to 32 WAR. Cesar Cedeno and Lance Berkman both got close to 50, but didn't quite make it.

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Thursday, May 21, 2015

It's Not All Basketball Here

I do talk baseball sometimes, and the Cardinals are 40 games into their season. They're sitting at 27-13, 4.5 games ahead of the Cubs, which isn't anything to complain about. Depending on how you look at it, they've either been lucky or unlucky. Unlucky, because they've had a host of injuries. Wainwright tore his Achilles, he's done for the year. Molina aggravated something, and Heyward had a groin pull for a few days. Matt Carpenter missed a couple of games with what they called extreme fatigue, which sounds like heat exhaustion, maybe. You could consider them lucky because these don't seem to have particularly slowed them down yet.

Their offense is ticking along. 2nd in OBP, 4th in slugging. They're 4th in runs, 1st in doubles, and all the way up to 8th in HRs. Which doesn't sound terribly impressive until you remember they were basically at the bottom of the NL last year. Molina, Adams, Jay, and Heyward are struggling to various degrees. Molina at least has a .345 on-base percentage, and Heyward has an isolated power of .146, which is hardly great, but a decent step up from last year's 113. The guys that are carrying the offense are Wong, Peralta, Carpenter, and Holliday. All of them have an OPS+ of at least 125 as I type this. Carpenter in particular has already hit 16 doubles (almost half of last year's total) and 7 HRs (one fewer than last year). Holliday's iso is only 135, but his OBP is .442, which works. Mark Reynolds has been useful (.779 OPS, 111 OPS+, 3 HRs in 95 PAs), and Peter Bourjos has, through 75 PAs, pretty much fulfilled my dreams for him when the Cards acquired him. .273 average, pumping up a .347 OBP, and his 3 triples go with the 3 doubles and one HR to give him a .455 slugging. And Grichuk has been a useful source of power in limited chances.

The pitching is a bit more suspect, what with Wainwright's absence. Martinez has struggled with control walking 22 guys in about 46 innings. He's also averaging fewer than 6 innings a start, which isn't surprising, given all the walks, but is disappointing. Tyler Lyons has continued to not have success in the majors, but Lackey, Lynn, and Wacha are all pitching well (though Wacha's FIP suggests he's getting pretty lucky).

In the bullpen, Rosenthal and Siegrist have given up 4 runs combined in 38 innings, which is probably unsustainably good, but it's encouraging. Siegrist's walk rate is just under 4 per 9 innings, which worries me a little. Belisle and Choate have both been fine so far, while Maness is scuffling a bit. Might just be misfortune, his ERA is 4.67, but his FIP is 2.9, and he hasn't walked anyone so far. Carlos Villanueva has done better than I expected, and appears to be Matheny's go-to guy in the 9th when it isn't a save situation, considering he's finished more games than anyone besides Rosenthal. Not sure what that means, possibly that Matheny's using him as an innings sponge for unimportant times, so he doesn't overwork his key guys. If true, it's not the worst idea I've heard. Jordan Walden was doing fine before he went on the DL, and it looks like Mitch Harris got all the good luck Maness is missing, as he's allowed 18 baserunners in 10 innings, but only 4 runs.

Overall, I'd say the season has gone as well as can be hoped, even without considering injuries. They've won two-thirds of their games so far, that's really good. It probably won't last (and I think they're something like 6-5 in their last 11 games), but those early wins don't stop counting in the standings just because a team doesn't maintain that pace. And I feel confident the Cubs aren't going away.

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Saturday, June 28, 2014

Cards At the Halfway Mark

Man, I was way wrong about that Heat/Spurs Final. Can only count on Lebron so far I guess. To baseball!

It's been 40 games since I last looked in. Over that time, the Cardinals have gone 23-17, so a minor improvement over their 21-20 start to the season. Haven't made up any ground on the Brewers, though, and the National League looks like it might have more than 5 good teams this year. The offense has not improved. The Cards are now 12th in the NL in runs, down from 11th 40 games ago. They're still 13th in slugging percentage, so being 6th in OBP isn't helping much. They're dead last in the NL is home runs, and 14th in stolen bases. So no power, and still no speed. Dandy.

Kolten Wong got called back up eventually, hit all right for awhile, but his numbers are essentially where they were 40 games earlier. .544 OPS then, .586 now, and he's on the DL, which leaves the Cardinals with Mark Ellis (.523 OPS), and Descalso (.490 OPS). Shane Robinson is back up, not doing much. Grichuk hit his first HR, but otherwise has an OPS of .464, and is back in the minors. Oscar Taveras was called up, hit his first HR in his second at-bat, continued to make good contact, but had poor results, to the tune of a .522 OPS. So Matheny spewed some crap about Oscar's swing being wrong, and they sent him back down. You know, I thought Matheny was hired because he understood the need to play the young guys so they could develop. Sure doesn't seem to be doing that. More like he has "his guys", and "not his guys", and the "not his guys" get no wiggle room for struggle.

Also, Peter Bourjos has an OPS of .596, and Allen Craig's is only .675, though Bourjos is playing excellent defense, at least.

On the positive side, Matt Adams is the leading hitter on the team, with an .867 OPS and 9 HRs. Peralta has cooled somewhat from his hot start, but has an OPS+ of 111, good for 3rd on the team behind Adams and Matt Holliday, who is at least getting on-base (.376 OBP), if not hitting for power (.392 SLG). Matt Carpenter's above league average (106 OPS+), though his slugging is still only .369. Still, it's a 50 point improvement from last time. Jon Jay still has an OPS+ of 109, so Bourjos is gonna be in trouble if he doesn't get his bat in gear a little. Tony Cruz is hitting, not great or anything, but better than he has in the past. Maybe because Molina's been banged up (and has fallen off considerably from the start of the year), so Cruz is getting more consistent playing time.

If the offense hasn't improved, the better results must be the pitchers' doing, right? Well, their ERA is now 2nd in the league. They're still 5th in Ks, but now 8th in BBs, so not improving there. However, they've allowed the fewest HRs in the league, so that helps. Injuries are starting to pile up, though. Joe Kelly still isn't back. Garcia and Michael Wacha's shoulder both started troubling them. Wainwright's had some periodic elbow inflammation. Keith Butler and Kevin Siegrist are both out. Shelby Miller's still getting decent results with bad peripherals. The strikeouts are at 6.3/9, the walks at 4.4/9, and the HRs, at least, are down to 1.1/9. Trevor rosenthal is still walking almost 5.5 batters per 9 innings, and Carlos Martinez is over 4.

Most of the other guys are doing better. Lynn is the only starter with more than 3 BBs/9, and it's not much over. His other numbers are good, and he's pitching quite well. Wainwright's been mostly aces, Wacha's good when he's not hurt. Seth Maness is doing well in the bullpen, and pat Neshek's doing outstanding. Choate's peripherals say he should be doing a lot better than he is, as his FIP is 3.10, but his ERA is 5.48. Beyond them, it's a hodgepodge of guys. Jason Motte's striking out a batter an innings, but he's also surrendered 3 HRs in his 10 innings so far. Sam freeman's done well is his 15 innings so far, Nick greenwood not so much in his 7. Marco Gonzales was called up for a start against Colorado, and while the Cardinals won, he didn't have much to do with that.

Defensively, Molina and Cruz' numbers both look good. Adams is about league average, Craig a bit below at first. Wong is now grading out slightly below-average, while Ellis is slightly above, at least by Baseball-Reference. Carpenter's improved his numbers at 3rd, Peralta's doing surprisingly well at SS. B-Ref has him on pace for 10 runs above average if he plays 1200 innings, which he's on pace for about 1300. Descalso grades out as below-average at all three of the infield positions he plays. What a shock. Holliday's dragged his defensive numbers up to exactly average, which I didn't expect. Bourjos is on pace to be 13 runs above average if he played 1200 innings, though he's only on pace to actually play about 800. Even Allen Craig is scoring well in RF, which I definitely didn't expect. I figured we'd be fortunate if he could be no worse than Beltran was last year.

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Friday, May 16, 2014

Cards At the Quarter Pole

The St. Louis Cardinals are 41 games into their season and they are. . . a mediocre team. 21-20, with a run differential that says that's really how good they are. It's the offense, mostly. The Cardinals are 11th in the NL in runs (though they're 8th if you remove pitchers from the equation, don't really understand that). And like last year, it's their power that's failing them. While only being 8th in batting average, they're a respectable 5th in OBP. But they're 13th in slugging, and dead last in home runs, with 23. And just in case you were, like me, hoping the arrival of Peter Bourjos and Kolten Wong would lead to more speed, they're 14th in stolen bases, with 13.

There's plenty of blame to go around. Wong wasn't hitting particularly well at the time he was sent down, with a .544 OPS, prompting Matheny to declare he needed to learn to push through adversity. One might wonder how he's supposed to learn that when Matheny benches him every time he struggles, and replaces him with people playing even worse. Mark Ellis has 74 plate appearances, to Wong's 76. Ellis has a .486 OPS. Descalso, who has 43 PAs, has a .464 OPS. Neither of them is the fielder he is. Greg Garcia has done all right in some extremely limited chances (14 PAs, .729 OPS). More than Shane Robinson or Randal Grichuk can say.

There are a few bright spots. Molina and Peralta are the two position players with an OPS over .800. Jon Jay, Holliday, and Matt Adams are all at least above average so far. And. . . that's about it. Bourjos and Craig's numbers are rising, and Bourjos' defense has been as spectacular as advertised, but their OBPs are both still under .300, which is not ideal. Matt Carpenters is at least getting on base (.356 OBP), but if the slugging doesn't come up (.319), that contract is going to look like a real bad decision on Mozeliak's part. On the upside, Wainwright's OPS is over .900. Maybe he got tired of a lack of run support.

The pitching has been somewhat stronger. Their ERA is a mediocre 8th, though it seems crazy to me a 3.44 ERA would only be that good. They're 7th in walks and 5th in strikeouts, which kind of sums up the staffs problem. They strike dudes out, but some of them are walking entirely too many people. Shelby Miller and Trevor Rosenthal in particular. Miller's been pitching poorly and getting away with it so far, but like Westbrook last year, you can't walk that many guys, or give up 1.6 HRs per 9 innings and succeed. Joe Kelly was doing OK for 3 starts, then he got hurt. Tyler Lyons took the spot and pitched badly. Now he's hurt. Other than that, the rotation is fine. Wainwright and Wacha have nearly identical FIPs, though Waino has an extra 10 innings, and a much better ERA (2.11 to 2.82). Lynn is pitching fairly well, though as usual, his results are not as good as his peripherals suggest they should be. Which I guess makes Lynn the current generation's version of Jose DeLeon.

As for the bullpen, Rosenthal, Carlos Martinez, and Kevin Siegrist all have ERAs over 4, which is hardly what you want from your top 3 relievers. Their peripherals suggest they, too, should have better results than they do. Pat Neshek and Seth Maness are doing well, though Maness is giving up a lot of hits. Choate's numbers also say he should be doing better than he is. Take from that what you will. The defense is crap, the pitchers are making stupid pitches, they've gotten bad bounces so far. I don't know which it is, but I'm not as encouraged by it like I suppose I should be.

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Saturday, April 06, 2013

Let's Talk Of Several Sports

Starting with baseball. Since the last post, Jason Motte went on the DL, and so did David Freese. Carlos Beltran's trying to play through a broken toe, and Adam Wainwright got a nearly $100 million contract that starts next year.

He promptly went out and surrendered 4 runs on 11 hits in 6 innings on Opening Day. I know, only one start, and hey, he didn't walk anybody, while striking out 6. Still, the results are what ultimately matter, and those weren't so great.

That makes me sound more down than I really am. It's too early in the season for me to pay much attention, what with it being a six-month long haul. Besides that, I don't find myself with particularly high expectations for the Cardinals. Oh, I expect them to finish with a winning record, but I'm not sure they'll make the playoffs. There are quite a few teams that ought to be good in the NL this year. Cincy, the Nationals, Atlanta, probably San Francisco and Arizona, maybe the Dodgers. I've seen several people who are high on Milwaukee, though I'm not as sure. They might have better pitching than last year, but their offense is suspect. Especially considering MLB's pursuit of Ryan Braun is reaching vendetta levels at this point. I expect them to conjure up some trumped up charge they can suspend him for at some point. If so, I'd expect the Brewers' offense to tank completely, like the '07 Cards when Pujols would take a day off. Even so, there's also the Pirates. I don't know, maybe this year they manage to stay above .500 all season. They made it into July in 2011, and August last year, so they ought to at least be a winning team into September this year.

Anyway, there's a lot of competition for those 5 playoff spots, and I'm just not sure about the Cardinals. The middle infield looks poor, and I'm not totally sold on the pitching staff. But if guys like Shelby Miller and Trevor Rosenthal can get some solid innings under the belt, and perhaps Matt Adams (and eventually) Oscar Taveras and Kolten Wong can get some at-bats to prepare them for heavier loads next year, I'd feel pretty good about that. The Cards have been pretty consistently good for awhile now, I'm not going to panic if they slip a little this year.

Over in the NFL, Arizona traded for Carson Palmer. Yeesh. Sadly, he is an upgrade over Skelton or Lindley (Skelton's been cut loose), and also over Drew Stanton or Brian Hoyer. I'm not sure he's that much of an upgrade, but at least this hopefully keeps Arizona from wasting a high draft pick on one of the sorry QBs in this year's draft. Go for the offensive line! Or linebackers! But not Manti Teo!

Part of the reason I'm not much concerned with baseball is that I'm preoccupied with the NBA. The playoffs are about to start, which means this is the time of year I most regret not having TV around here. The Western Conference looks stacked, though the Nuggets took a hit with Gallinari having knee surgery. Still, they seem like a deep enough team to be the one best suited to surviving losing their #2 scorer. They spread the load around so much already, it just means everybody else needs to pick up a little slack, which they theoretically can do. The Spurs without Parker, or the Thunder without Westbrook would have a tougher challenge, I think (though it's not the same thing, since those guys perform different roles for their team than Gallinari does for Denver).

It looks like the Lakers might get the #8 seed, though Utah holds a tie-breaker. Even though I'm a big Nash fan, I would thoroughly enjoy Los Angeles missing the playoffs entirely.  This trainwreck of a season has been a joy to behold. Even if the constant dissecting of a team that spent most of the season below .500 has been tedious. I don't really care that Utah will likely be destroyed by OKC or San Antonio, just as the Spurs did to them last year. Does anyone really expect the Lakers, with their shoddy defense and lack of any consistent offensive strategy to do any better? So what if Utah (or the lakers, or the Mavs) gets obliterated? They're the 8 seed, that's what usually happens, occasional Golden State over Dallas, or 76ers over Derrick Rose-less Chicago notwithstanding. The Bucks are probably gonna be the 8 seed in the East. Is anyone going to be surprised if Miami curbstomps them 4 straight games and moves on? No, because Miami's a 1 seed, and the Bucks are an 8, and that means Miami's vastly better than Milwaukee. And if the Lakers are an 8 seed playing #1 San Antonio, it means the same thing.

As to Miami, I'm not sure there's anyone in the East who can beat them. The Bucks have no chance, and Atlanta's fallen apart over the course of the season. Boston (even if they had KG), Chicago, and Indiana all have top-notch defenses, but so does Miami. They might slow the Heat offense down, but the Heat will do the same to them, and they don't have nearly as much wiggle room there. I'd give the Knicks a chance if they could shoot 3s the way they did the first month and a half of the season. Otherwise, I don't think they can keep up. Which leaves the Nets. Brooklyn has some big men that are useful, which is still Miami's weakness, assuming you can keep the game slowed down enough. That was Indiana's problem last year, or OKC when Perkins was on the court. A lot of the time the Heat were too fast for the other team to bring their big men into play. If the Nets could slow it down, ugly it up a little, they might have a chance, but I wouldn't call it a good one. It'd be pretty cool to see Miami play in the Western Conference playoffs instead. Let them go at it with the Spurs, or the Thunder, maybe throw Memphis at them, or the Clippers. At least they'd get a challenge.

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Monday, January 07, 2013

The Yearly Hall Of Fame Ballot

We'll know the results for this year's Hall of Fame voting on Wednesday. Right now, it doesn't look certain anyone will get in. Not that there's any shortage of worthwhile candidates, but there's the whole PED thing mucking it all up. It's gotten frankly ridiculous. Jeff Bagwell's never been linked to anything. No failed drug tests, no mention in the Mitchell Report, never brought up by some other player as a guy who did steroids with him. But, he had big muscles, hit home runs, and played in the '90s and early 2000s, and that's enough for some people. What's more hilarious/infuriating is some people are holding Bagwell's presence as a teammate against Biggio. They have no proof Bagwell did anything, but they think he did, so that means Biggio is suspect, too.

When Jeter comes up on the ballot, I wonder if he'll be held to the same standard. He played with Clemens, Pettite, Giambi, and A-Rod, so clearly Jeter must have used, right? I don't know if he did or not. As I've said before, unless someone admits it, or fails a drug test, I give them the benefit of the doubt. That's not even getting into the question of what baseball's official policy was when there was no testing, or the fact there are dozens of cheaters in the Hall, from amphetimine users (including Mike Schmidt and Hank Aaron) to ball doctorers like Whitey Ford and Gaylord Perry. And there's no conceivable reading of the character clause that should let Ty Cobb in, not if the "character" stuff really means anything. If someone were to vote against all those players, I wouldn't mind their voting against known PED guys, because at least they were consistent. It's this notion that steroids are somehow the only form of cheating that's really bad that wears on me.

Anyway, ballot time. Start with the returning candidates.

Still Yes: Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, Edgar Martinez, Alan Trammell, Larry Walker. I feel stronger about supporting Walker this year, because it was pointed out that he wasn't just a guy with Coors-inflated numbers. He was a very good rightfielder defensively, and a good baserunner, especially before injuries and age sapped his speed.

Still No: Jack Morris, Lee Smith, Fred McGriff, Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy, Bernie Williams.

Changed to No: Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmerio. It's more about the number of promising candidates on the ballot this year.

So that's half of my available "Yes" votes. Let's look at the newbies, all 24 of them.

No Chance, That's What Y'All Got: Todd Walker, Jose Mesa, Sandy Alomar, Mike Stanton, Jeff Conine, Royce Clayton, Roberto Hernandez, Aaron Sele, Ryan Klesko, Rondell White, Woody Williams, Jeff Cirillo, Shawn Green, Reggie Sanders, Julio Franco, Steve Finley, David Wells.

A few notes:

- I'm still more than a little biased against Royce Clayton, seeing as he was the guy LaRussa was so sure should start ahead of Ozzie. At least he was a good SS, even if he never drew any walks. It kind of astounds me he managed 1904 hits.

- When I was a kid, I hated Ryan Klesko. Called him "Ryan Crisco". Not sure why. He looked goofy in the outfield, and it seemed like Atlanta was always on the verge of moving out McGriff to use Klesko at first. That bothered me for some reason.

- Ah Woody Williams. We'll always have that stretch from your arrival in St. Louis in 2001, until you wore down in mid-2003. What a good run.

- In the same way I wanted Jamie Moyer to hang on until he got 300 wins, just to see how the Hall voters would handle it, I wanted Julio Franco to hang on until he reached 3000 hits.

- David Wells was a pretty good pitcher. I might be selling him short, putting him in with the rest. Still, I don't think he's a Hall of Fame caliber pitcher.

Which leaves us 7 candidates.

Sammy Sosa: I feel like 600 HRs should be enough, but then, that's about all Sosa has going for him. He wasn't much of a fielder, his speed evaporated as his power increased, and he never drew many walks (witness his .344 OBP). That last one is what I'd have to hang my hat on to differentiate him from Jim Thome, assuming I want to vote for Thome when he's eligible. No.

Craig Biggio: He got to 3,000 hits, got on-base a lot during his prime, played good or better defense at 3 positions during his prime. He may have looked bad at time those last couple years as he struggled towards 3,000, but he's hardly the only person in baseball history guilty of that. Yes.

Kenny Lofton: I've seen some good arguments for just how good Lofton was. And I am partial to guys with speed who could field pretty well. It's probably better to focus on Tim Raines first (who has a stronger case), then try to work off that success for Lofton, but what the hell, Yes.

Curt Schilling: Ugh. As a St. Louis Cardinals' fan, I don't like being reminded of the 2004 World Series. That being said, Schilling has 3,000 strikeouts. I know his win total is low, worse than Morris' and Wells', but I think Schilling was indisputably the better pitcher, even if he wasn't as effective for as long. Sigh, grumble, grumble, Yes.

Mike Piazza: Best hitting catcher ever. My impression of Piazza is of a guy who was absolutely terrible at throwing out baserunners, but wasn't that bad otherwise behind the plate. I feel like before he got older, he was solid at blocking pitchers in the dirt and stuff like that. Not Molina, but hardly the disaster people make him out to be. Even if he were as bad as they say, he was more than a good enough hitter to compensate. Yes.

Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds: At this point, you may notice I've left myself only one empty spot, with two pretty deserving candidates. Well, I suppose deserving depends on your perspective. As far as I know, Clemens contends he never took anything illegal, and despite Congress' best efforts, was never proven to be lying. Bonds has said he did take steroids, or Victor Conte said he did, and Bonds didn't dispute it, but Bonds does contend he never knowingly took anything. It feels like that should make a difference, but I'm not sure how.

Clemens was, going by the numbers, a great starting pitcher. Bonds was, going by the numbers a great leftfielder. Well, a great hitter who played left field for part of the time anyway. I'm not sure he defense was up to snuff in his later years (understandable, given his age). If I have to pick between the two, and I suppose I do, I'd probably go with Bonds. I think he was more dominant relative to his peers than Clemens was. It could go either way. I could take either Edgar or Lofton off my ballot, but screw it, these guys can share the spot.

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Friday, December 09, 2011

Albert Pujols Is Now A California Angel

That's what they were called when I started watching baseball, and it takes less space to type than the nonsense name they have now. They offered 10 years and $254 million, Albert accepted, legions of Cardinals fans went online to disavow ever liking Albert Pujols, ever being glad he was a Cardinal, to hope for his career to go into immediate decline, for him to be busted for PED use, to suffer a career-ending injury, or to demand to know how he could leave, so on and so forth. In other words, lose their shit.

Frankly, I'd like to meet all these Cardinals fans who are apparently so wealthy they could turn up their nose at an extra $34 million over ten years. They could loan me some money. I wouldn't ask for anywhere near that much, so clearly they'd never miss such an inconsequential sum.

Look, I'm probably the last person who should be telling people to calm the fuck down. I have railed against LaRussa and the Cardinals for trading Brendan Ryan and trying to feed us a line of bullshit about Ryan Theriot being a shortstop for about a year now. That being said, people need to calm the fuck down*.

Albert Pujols doesn't owe the Cardinals or the fans shit. Whatever he might have owed from them drafting him in the 13th round, or for giving him a spot on the Opening Day roster in 2001, or for his recently expired 8 year, $111 million contract, he more than repaid. They won 2 World Series titles with him, and wouldn't have won either without him. They went to another World Series. True, I'd just as soon forget that one ever happened, but it did and he was a major part of it. They had one losing season in his 11 years with the team**. The Cardinals may have given Albert the opportunity, but he's the one who made something of it.

By that same token, the Cardinals owe Albert nothing. They paid him in accordance with a contract he agreed to. Was that contract well below value for the production he offered? Hell yes, and maybe that's why he went for the biggest money contract this time. Imagine if he'd played through his 3 arbitration years (2004-2006) on one year contracts, then gone on the free agent market in an offseason when he was turning 27***, and had just won a World Series. Holy crap. The fact remains, he took the contract and as far as I know, the Cardinals didn't stiff him on a dime. Once the contract ended, they were under no obligation to offer him any more than they felt comfortable with. That comfort level apparently ended at 10 years and $220 million, which was insufficient for Albert.

So here we are. I'm in a middle ground. I don't blame either side for their decision. I would have liked for Albert to be a Cardinal his entire career, to chase Stan Musial for the franchise record in all sorts of offensive categories. I would not have liked for the Cardinals to be paying him $25 (or 22 for that matter) million a year for the next decade. Though I suppose that kind of payroll commitment would force them to build from within, as it would kind of limit their opportunities to chase free agents. At least, free agents that could have a large impact. I would have enjoyed that.

The years were really the hang up for me. Had it been my call, I'd have given him 25 million per for 7 years in a heartbeat, or even 30 million per for 5. But a 10-year contract? A bridge too far, but one Albert really wanted, and someone else was willing to give. It's disappointing, but the team will go on. My Cardinals fandom survived the strike, LaRussa alienating Ozzie, J.D. Drew's oft-injured presence, Ankiel's pitching flameout, losing to the Mets in the 2000 NLCS, the '04 World Series sweep, Anthony Reyes never putting it together (even on another team where he could spite LaRussa and Duncan), the presence of lousy veterans like Miles, Suppan, MacDougal, Feliz, and Winn on the 2010 team, the trade of Brendan Ryan, the presence of Ryan Theriot, all the stupid crap LaRussa did over the years.

I'm not going to wish Albert ill. I expect his numbers will decline, because age always wins, but I hope he can maintain a high level for some time for the Angels. Maybe break some records. Sure, it'll be with the Angels, but he'll have started with the Cardinals, and that's not nothing. I'd like for him to be popular in Anaheim. Maybe he won't be for them what he could have been for St. Louis, but I don't buy some of this stuff I see about how he could have been a Musial-like figure for the franchise had he stayed. Fans today have short memories. The first time he really struggled, say lost a season to injury, or just had a bad year, there'd be fans who would turn on him. Fans are frequently "What have you done for me in the last five seconds?" Because we're lunatic assholes. I'm not going to boo him when the Cardinals play the Angels. I reserve my booing for players who sucked while they were Cardinals, like Jeff Brantley. I'm not saying I want the Angels to win 10 World Series with Albert. I'd rather the Cards win the next 10, or failing that, whatever team Brendan Ryan's playing for that year, since he missed out on this one. But if those options are a no-go, I wouldn't object to the Angels getting another championship.

I'm going to try and remember the good stuff about his eleven years here. The great spring training that got him on the Opening day roster his rookie year. The 3-HR game against the Cubs in '04. The 2004 NLCS, when he matched Beltran big hit for big hit. Crushing that Brad Lidge pitch in the '05 NLCS. Hitting a game-winning double off Lidge the next year (though I mostly remember Lidge dejectedly walking back to his dugout). His insane April and May in 2006. Scoring from second on a grounder to second against the Rockies. Being worth 25 runs above average at first in '07. Running with that gimpy stride, but trying to take the extra base like he was Vince Coleman. Coming back from a fractured wrist in less than 3 weeks. Playing with an elbow that needs Tommy John surgery for what, five years at least? The 3-HR game in the World Series. Playing second base in '08 because the team needed him to, or going back to third this year for the same reason.

People are saying his signing for the most money with the Angels proves he doesn't care about winning like he said. Bullshit. I don't believe for a second a guy who plays at positions more likely to cause him injury because it let the team put their best lineup out there doesn't care about winning. Maybe he did that for individual acclaim, but it helped the team, so it all leads to the same place. He was the best player the Cardinals have had in my lifetime. Even if he wasn't my favorite player ever, I'm still glad I got to see him play for the Cardinals for 11 years. if other people want to focus on the negative, that's their choice. I'm not going the bitter route, if for no other reason than I refuse to give the gloating fans of other teams the satisfaction.

* I don't think it's quite the same thing since in that case, Brendan still wanted to be here, and was traded due to some guys on the team being uptight jackasses, and then the team tried to sell us the notion they were better off with a clearly inferior ballplayer. In this case, Albert was free to go where he liked, the team made an offer, the Angels made one he liked better, and he went. Nobody was forced to leave.

** That was 2007, the year Carpenter's season ended on Opening Day, leaving Kip Wells as the No. 1 starter. The Cardinals had 3 relief pitchers who didn't suck (Izzy, Franklin, Russ Springer). Chris Duncan was the only guy to hit over 15 HRs besides Albert, and he didn't play the last month of the season. Scott Rolen slugged below .400. Juan Encarnacion's career was ended by a line drive to the face. Adam Kennedy was, before his season ending knee surgery, the worst starting 2nd baseman the team has had in my life. And still they won 78 games, in no small part because of Albert.

*** I know there's still rumors he's older than he says he is. Until someone shows me proof, I'll take him at his word. And no, Keith Law, Rob Neyer, and Dan LeBatard, "front office people around baseball believe it" isn't proof. Front office people can be dumbasses. If they weren't we wouldn't have nearly as many jokes about Barry Zito and Vernon Wells' ridiculous contracts.

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Wednesday, December 07, 2011

It's Hall Of Fame Voting Time

Not that I have a ballot, but let's pretend I did. Who am I voting for? Starting with returning candidates.

Barry Larkin: Yes. I'm always going to believe Ozzie was better, because even though Larkin was a much better hitter, Ozzie was so phenomenal at a critical defensive position that amplifies his value. But just because I don't think Larkin was as good as Ozzie Smith, doesn't mean Larkin shouldn't be in the Hall.

Jack Morris: I said No last year, with the understanding I wouldn't be angry if he was elected, as long as Blyleven got in first. Well, Blyleven's in, so if they want to vote Morris in that's fine.

Lee Smith: Still No.

Jeff Bagwell: I said Yes last year, I'm sticking with that.

Tim Raines: Yes.

Edgar Martinez: Yes.

Alan Trammell: Yes. Seems like Trammell's campaign gained a little steam last year. Is the backlash against suspected PED users funneling more votes to players believed to be clean? Unfortunately, I think it may be happening a little late. Trammell's got a lot of ground to make up, and only a few years left to do it in.

Larry Walker: I'm a little shaky on this with the Coors-inflated stats, but Yes.

Mark McGwire: A conditional Yes. If I end up with too many options, I'm shuffling him off.

Fred McGriff: No.

Don Mattingly: No.

Dale Murphy: No.

Rafael Palmerio: Like McGwire, a conditional Yes. I want to see what happens to his vote percentage this year. McGwire's has declined slowly. Will Palmiero's do the same?

Juan Gonzalez: No.

Man, the crop of new players sucks.

Bernie Williams: I don't think his offensive statistics are that superb. Admittedly, he's a CFer, and like SS, I'll cut them some slack with the bat if they're great with the glove. Unfortunately for Bernie, Baseball-reference has him as -12 wins below average defensively for his career. That's only about a -0.75 per season, but that's definitely not "great". No.

Vinny Castilla: No, his stats are Coors inflated like Walker's, but the results aren't nearly as good.

Javy Lopez: No.

Ruben Sierra: No.

Jeff Nelson: Um, hang on, who? *looks up player page* OK, I vaguely remember him. No.

Jeromy Burnitz: That's a joke, right? No.

Tim Salmon: Angels Hall of Fame? Sure. MLB Hall of Fame? No.

Mike Matheny: A guy worth 2.6 WAR for his entire career? No.

Edgardo Alfonzo: No, sorry.

OK, shit, this is taking too long. Why the hell did they nominate so many new, mediocre players? Let's do this:

Danny Graves, Scott Erickson, Tony Womack, Jeff Fassero, Phil Nevin, Carl Everett, Eric Young, Tim Worrell, Bill Mueller, Joe Randa, Jose Lima, Matt Lawton, Terry Mulholland, Rick Helling, Mike Remlinger, Felix Rodriguez? No.

I have a certain soft spot for Brad Radke, and especially Brian Jordan, so if I had some open spots, I'd vote for them, just so they each got at least one vote, and I only voted for eight guys, so. Yes!

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Monday, September 26, 2011

Week 3 And Later September Baseball

Arizona lost again this weekend. To the Seattle Seahawks. Good to know Arizona's wasting no time making me aware of their ineptitude. I know, it's early, but the Seahawks are freaking terrible, and the Cardinals can't even beat them? What do you expect me to say? "La, la, it's great, everything is sunshine and chocolate bars!"

At this point, I'd say the NFC West is San Francisco's to lose. Which is nice. The Niners have been running their mouths for three seasons about how they were really the best team in the division. Never mind the fact they didn't actually win the division in any of those seasons. Last year, all they had to do was start the season 2-3 and the division would have been theirs. But they went 0-5 instead. That's on them. Well now they've been handed a division so shitty it doesn't appear there's anyway they can't win it. Put up or shut up time Niners.

In baseball, we're entering the final three games of the season. The Braves maintain a 1 game lead over St. Louis, but it's surprising the Cardinals are even still in it. They took the first two from the Mets, but then they had a complete meltdown in the third game. Up 6-2 in the 9th, they lost 8-6 behind a total failure on Motte's part to throw strikes, aided by Furcal botching what would have been a double play ball. Subsequent attempts by Scrabble and Salas to hold the lead were ineffective.

It's sometimes said "Momentum is the next day's starting pitcher." Since the Cards would send out Carpenter for the first game of the Cubs series, they seemed to have their best chance of getting back on the winning track. Carp went 7 strong innings, but McClellan blew up in the 8th, and the Cards lost 4-1. Obviously the offense did the team no favors, either. Or perhaps I should say LaRussa did the team no favors. With Holliday still unavailable to start with a wrist injury, LaRussa opted to put Schumaker and Theriot in the lineup together, while leaving Allen Craig (who is the 3rd best available hitter with Holliday hurt) on the bench.

Still, the team managed to turn it around and win the next two against Chicago, though the offense has doze to slumber, managing only 5 runs in those two games. The first of those games was won in the 9th when Tyler Greene was walked in, then Adron Chambers scored on a wild pitch. The second game turned on a piar of solo shots in the 7th and 8th innings by Molina and Furcal, respectively. So a little longball, and a little smallball/luck. Whatever works, I suppose.

The Cardinals are about to face Houston, while Atlanta travels to Philly. I'd typically feel that favors the Cardinals, but the Phils had been on an 8-game losing streak until they won yesterday against the Mets. One can only hope they'll go out and drub the Braves to try and get themselves right for the postseason.

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Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Week 2 And Late September Baseball

The Arizona Cardinals didn't fare as well last weekend, losing to the Redskins 22-21. It's a fairly typical loss for them. They had the lead then failed to add to it, or at least run off clock, and the other team came back and won. A bit like the loss to Minnesota last year. I'm not sure whether losing to Rex Grossman is more or less embarrassing than losing to what was left of Favre last season.

What's odd is, unlike that Vikings' game, the Cardinals ran the ball fairly effectively. Beanie Wells had 93 yards of 14 carries, so basically 7 yards per carry. Despite that, when having the ball at the 5 minutes remaining mark, the Cardinals eschewed the run and only managed to burn 40 seconds. Whisenhunt really confuses me some times. He talks about wanting to establish the run, but when they're actually having success, he abandons it at the most critical moments. Even if they ran on only first and second down, either the Redskins burn two timeouts, or the Cardinals run off close to a minute and a half. That's without taking into account a possible third down run, if it seems likely to make the first. Or there's always a chance Wells gets a first down on one of those two carries, which keeps the drive going, and eats more clock.

In other news, the St. Louis Cardinals have won 5 out of 6 since I chastised them for losing to the Pirates last week. Combined with the Brewers scuffling a bit, and the Braves disintegrating, the Cardinals are still in the running for both the division and the Wild Card. Admittedly, the Brewers lead over the Cards is larger than their magic number (5.5 vs. 4), so the odds of claiming the Central crown are pretty narrow. But it's only 2.5 game lead for the Braves in the Wild Card. Which means they still have the advantage obviously, but it gives the Cardinals some reason to hope.

Of course, while the Cardinals get to play the mediocre-to-lousy Mets and Cubs in StL, before finishing up on the road against abysmal Houston, the Braves continue a series against Florida, to be followed by 3 against the Nationals, and close the season against the Phillies. Phillies' manager Charlie Manuel said he wouldn't be trotting out the B-team (excepting injuries) against Atlanta or St. Louis, since they're both in a playoff race, and he thinks it would go against the competitive nature of things. Which is pretty cool, though I wouldn't fault Phils' fans for preferring Manuel worry about keeping his team rested and ready. Of course, it may be in the Phillies' best interests to play the starters regularly right to the end, so they don't lose their rhythm. That seems to be one of those debates that comes up every year, with the postseason results being the referendum, and those varying from one team to the next.

There's also the Giants to contend with, as they're on an even better tear lately than the Cardinals. They do still have some games left against the division leading Diamondbacks, but the D'Backs may have clinched by then, so who knows what their concern will be. The Giants also contend with the Dodgers, who aren't very good, but are a rival franchise, and will be sending out Clayton Kershaw, who is meriting serious Cy Young consideration.

Who knows how things are gonna go. The Cards are 1-2 against the Mets this year, but there's been talk the Mets' players have thrown in the towel recently. Which didn't stop them from giving Atlanta trouble, so take it for what it's worth. StL is 8-4 against both Houston and Chicago North this season, which is encouraging. The Cardinals inability to beat the weaker teams in the Central last year was their undoing (the Cards went 18-27 against MIL, HOU, and CHC, the 3-5 teams in the division, while the Reds went 33-12 against those same teams). While the Cardinals are 6-9 against the Reds this year (after going 12-6 against them last year, go figure), they have managed a 25-15 record thus far against the Cubs, Astros, and Pirates. Of course, anything can happen in a 3-game series, so there's no telling if any of that means anything.

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