Cardinals' 2008 Season Review - Position Players

Didn't mean to let this go so long, but I kept getting distracted, and these posts always take me forever, so it really is easiest to just wait until the weekend.

Catcher - Well, Yadier finished the season with a .741 OPS and 16.8 VORP, setting a new career high, and establishing the highest OPS for the Cardinals starting catcher since Darrell Porter in 1983. Unfortunately, he only played 2 games after September 10th. I'm used to Molina missing some time in June, seems to happen most every year now, but sitting out because of a knee ailment in September concerns me a bit. Also, while his offense improved, his defense seems to have suffered. His +1 BRAA is a career best, but +10 FRAA is his worst as a starter. Based on those numbers he was better last year when he was a combined +15 (+19 fielding, -4 hitting), versus his +11 this year. Probably not enough to make a difference, but I don't know that he can improve his offense enough to make up for a drop defensively. Jason LaRue's numbers tailed off, as he finished with a .213 batting average, to go with his .644 OPS, and -2.3 VORP. He was -6 BRAA and +2 FRAA. Sadly, a -2 is his best result since a +6 in 2005. That's why he's a backup. Still, there'll always be the month of June, when his OPS was over 1.000.

Infield - Obviously I'm biased, but I figure Albert Pujols deserves the NL MVP this year. Howvere, I figure he'll miss out on it again, due to the failures of his teammates. Again. I fail to understand how it is his fault LaRussa kept letting Izzy and Franklin close games. I mean, attempt to close games. And now he's had elbow surgery, though not the Tommy John surgery he's supposedly needed since at least the end of '07. No, this was to move a nerve that was getting pinched and causing him to lose feeling in his arm. Yes, Albert hit .357 with a 1.115 OPS (That's a 190 OPS+, 90% better than league average) while periodically losing feeling in his arm. Sweet fancy Moses on a rocket-powered unicycle. He walked 104 times, his first season over 100 walks. I know, I'm surprised too, especially given the lineups he's had around him the last couple years, but I guess Albert's like Vlad Guerrero, and doesn't like walking. He only struck out 54 times. He lead the team in hits and doubles (44). His VORP was 96.8, which means he was worth almost 10 wins above a replacement player. WARP3 says he was worth 13.5 wins, which is the difference between the Cards being in the wild card hunt, and fighting Cincy and Pittsburgh to stay out of the Central Cellar. Put it this way, Albert, based on VORP, was worth more to the Cardinals than their #2 (Ludwick at 53.6) and #3 (Wainwright at 39.3) players combined, and that's just based on offense. Defensively, his Range Factor (10.61) is ridiculously above the league average for 1st basemen (9.34). He's listed at 82 BRAA and 13 FRAA. That FRAA is his best ever, and the +95 is also his career best, topping the + 81 he had in 2003 (when he was a -7 FRAA as a leftfielder, but +88 as a hitter).

Adam Kennedy was not completely worthless this year. Woo. His RaFa was well above the norm (5.21 vs. 4.83). He even got his OPS up to .693 by season's end, which meant his OPS+ was 82, so he was only 18% below average. He had a VORP of 4.4 so hey! positive number! His BRAA was -5, and his FRAA was +1, which is LaRueian, but it beats the -22 stinkbomb he dropped last season. On the downside, Tony insisted on playing Kennedy in right field a bit last month, 55 innings total, including 6 starts. What the hell, LaRussa? I said I was sick of middle infielders in the outfield, not that I wanted more of them!

Aaron Miles and Felipe Lopez logged some innings at second as well. Neither one was the fielder Kennedy was (Miles' RaFa was 4.61, Lopez' was 4.81, so both below average), but they were both vastly superior hitters. Miles had a career year, with an OPS of .753, a 15.2 VORP (8th among hitters on the team), a +2 BRAA and 0 FRAA. Certainly better than the -21 he had in '07. I'd say that should teach TLR not to give Miles so many at-bats, but he only had 40 fewer ABs this year than last, he just hit a lot better this year. And played less at shortstop. That probably helped. Meanwhile, Lopez decided to play Cesar Cedeno in 1985, racking up a .964 OPS for the Cardinals in 156 at-bats. While his batting average was .385, his OBP was only .426, but his slugging was .538, as he cranked 8 doubles, 2 triples, and 4 home runs in his brief stint with StL. What I'm trying to say is, I was pretty wrong to dismiss signing Lopez and demoting Ryan as a terrible move back in August. Lopez contributed a +14 BRAA (vs. the -16 he gave the Nats before they released him), and a -2 FRAA (vs. a -5 in Washington), and a 19.8 VORP, which is 6th amongst the hitters. Naturally, Tony wanted to get all these guys in the lineup, so Lopez logged, in addition to his 157 innings at 2nd, 85 innings at 3rd, 58 innings in LF, 25 in SS, and 2 in RF. His Range Factor insists he was above average at 3rd and right. Miles logged almost 500 innings this year at 2nd, 61 at 3rd, 172 at SS, 26 in left, 3 in center, and 2 in right. For what it's worth, his range factors for SS and 3rd say he was better than average. I'm not sure I believe that.

Like Kennedy, Izturis provided an RaFa above average for his position (4.85 vs. 4.43), while hitting poorly. Unfortunately, Cesar only had a .628 OPS, which is just sad. How he merited a +2 VORP, I don't know, since it doesn't include defense. He had a -12 BRAA, but a +6 FRAA, so he wasn't really much worse than Kennedy. Your 2008 St. Louis Cardinals' starting middle infield, everybody! Still, his OBP was about the same as Kennedy's (.319 vs. .321), despite a batting average 17 points lower (.263 vs. .280). Also, he stole 24 bases, and was only caught 6 times, which means his base stealing was actually beneficial (I think your success rate has to be at least 75% or you're costing the team runs). Brendan Ryan = huge disappointment. Last year's numbers probably weren't sustainable, but he couldn't even hit better than Izturis (.596?!) Sorry Brendan, but your 4.69 RaFa at SS isn't enough to make up for that, your -3.9 VORP, or the combined -11 RAA (-9 BRAA, -2 FRAA). Not even close. And you were worse than Miles at 2nd! What the heck? Oh, and Ryan put in 19 innings in right and 1 inning in left. I wonder how Izturis managed to duck outfield duty?

Troy Glaus was certainly better with the glove than I figured. His RaFa was 2.74, vs. league average of 2.6, and he had a FRAA of +3. He also had a +27 BRAA, and the combined +30 is his best result since 2002, when he put up a +37 for Anaheim. That surprises me, I'd thought he had some other good years in there, but it looks like his D has been erratic, and this is his best offensive season since '02. He finished with an .855 OPS, which was third on the team among qualified hitters, but damn, he was streaky. His OPS was .927 in June, .963 in July, and .947 in September (though he only played 18 games that month). It was between .750 and .780 in April, May, and August. Which I guess makes him consistent day-to-day, but streaky month-to-month. Whatever, he only hit 6 of his 27 HRs in the bad months, which is not really good. I mean, 27 homers is good, but only hitting 6 over three months is not. That may just be who he is though. He did draw 87 walks, that's a plus. And yes, the swap of him and Rolen appears to have worked out well.

Outfield - The outfield disintegrated the last 40 games, hence all the infielders running around making fools of themselves. Chris Duncan was already MIA with his herniated disc. Then Joe Mather fractured/broke his wrist in early September, so that was it for him. Which is too bad. He couldn't seem to draw walks (.306 OBP), but 8 HRs and a .474 SLG in 133 at-bats is nothing to sneeze at. He logged a +3.6 VORP in limited time, +1 BRAA, +2 FRAA, and Range Factor says he was better than average in left and right, and just below average in center. Ankiel finally got shut down for the season in early September, as whatever this abdominal injury that he got in late July was didn't get any better. Rikki-Tikki-Tavi wound up with an .843 OPS and 24.5 VORP (it was 29.7 with 40 games to go), which is still decent. Unfortunately, he put up a .648 in August (59 plate appearances), and a .369 in 17 September PAs. I have to consider that he did so poorly because pitchers figured him out, rather than trying to pin it on the injury, but I'd rather blame the injury. Still, he hit 25 homers with a .337 OBP, and he had his OPS against lefties up to .717. by year's end, so he was learning to hit LHP and be more selective, both of which are encouraging. On the other hand, Range Factor says he wasn't any better than Mather in center (2.55 for both, vs. 2.61 for the league). His BRAA was +15, but he offsets that almost entirely with a -12 FRAA, which is unsettling. Paging Colby Rasmus, no don't worry about the mean man in the dark sunglasses, we drugged his milk, he won't bite.

Nick Stavinoha got some more playing time, and continued to not justify it (-6.3 VORP in just 61 PAs, jeeminey Christmas), unfortunately. So that leaves Skip, Thudwick, and Barton. Skip is listed as primary leftfielder, but he actually spent more time in center (556 innings vs. 338). In left and right, his RaFa says he's better than average, but in center he was worse than Rick or Joey Bombs. He finished with a .765 OPS, but his VORP's at 20.6, so one stat says he got worse since mid-August, the other says he got better. He racked up a +8 BRAA, and a 0 FRAA. I'd always figured Schmaker was a good defensive outfielder (or that's what TLR's usage pattern suggested), but FRAA says he's never been better than +1. Maybe his defense suffers with more use like his offense seems to. He can't hit lefties (.423 OPS), so he's a platoon player/defensive replacement at best. I'm disappointed that he only stole 8 bases. Heck, Albert stole 7, but we could chalk that up to TLR not being a base-stealing type of manager. I can't shake the feeling that Skip ought to be able to steal more bases, and he had an OBP of .359, so he's on-base enough to try, at least.

Ludwick appears to be solid with the glove in either left or right, and he was actually above average (2.81) in center. It was only 64 innings, but still, that's more than you can say for the other centerfielders. Obviously, his offense was a huge boost, as he produced a .299 batting average, a .375 OBP, and a .591 SLG. So a .964 OPS. It's down 30 points from the 3/4ths mark but I'd say that's pretty solid. He ended up tied with Albert in HRs, first in runs, and second in RBIs. He's listed at +46 BRAA, and +12 FRAA, which as far as I can tell, makes him our best defensive outfielder. Maybe he ought to be in center. He did strike out 146 times, but if he keeps putting up these numbers, I can accept that. I lived with it from both Lankford and Edmonds, I can deal with Ludwick doing it, too.

Barton had some bad luck. He made it back from that injury in August, then pulled something in his first start, and had to miss a couple more weeks. Once he was back from that, Tony still wouldn't let him finish games. Damn it Tony, you let Felipe Lopez play left and his Range Factor was 0.62. Barton's was 1.94 (league average = 1.90). Let the man finish some games! Crabman put up a .746 OPS, with a .354 OBP and .392 SLG. And that came with a .268 batting average, so he showed some ability to both walk and hit with power. He added a 3.7 VORP, so about equal to Mather, +2 BRAA, and +2 FRAA. See LaRussa, he was a better with the glove than Rick or Schu, so please leave him in the game! Yeah, yeah, sample size.

I'm disappointed he only stole 3 bases. I know, only 179 PAs, but he can fly. It's like watching Willie McGee or Vince Coleman back in the '80s, hauling ass around those bases. One thing in Barton's favor for the future (sample size caveats aside) is he can hit LHPs. His OPS against lefites is the same as against righties, though he hits for more power against RHPs (.324 OBP/.422 SLG), and walks more against LHPs (.374/.371). I mentioned Ankiel improved against LHPs as the season went along, but he still hits RHPs (.890 OPS) much better. Skip can't hit lefties, Duncan never could, and Mather has a .682 against LHPs, but an .871 against righties. Ludwick is the only one who hit LHPs better than Barton, and he was killing pitchers regardless of which arm they used (.985 vs. RHP, .929 vs LHP). So that, plus the speed, is something Barton could offer the team next year. I hope he can make it.