As We Await The Playoffs, Milestones

The AL Central is doing their damnedest to stay relevant before their representative gets rudely ejected from the postseason, aren't they? I do kind of wish I could watch tomorrow's game, just to see which team looks more desperate, and which is more calm, but we only get one channel out here, and the Internet connection is far too slow for watching online (thus I haven't not seen the end of Burn Notice Season 2, or anything past the opener of the last season of The Shield).

I've been a milestone watcher for a couple of years now, probably dating back to a bet made with Marvels and Legends' (the store, not my blog, which swiped its name) owner Ken Murphy. After the 2005 season, Ken bet me that Ken Griffey Jr. would reach 600 home runs by the end of the 2007 season, while I argued Junior couldn't stay healthy long enough to hit 64 home runs over 2 seasons. Turned out I was right, and thus I won a soda. And there was much rejoicing. Since then, players approaching certain statistical plateaus has become a common debate topic for us at the store, which is where this comes from. Admittedly, it's focused on the supposed Holy Trinity of baseball stats (Hits, Homers, and Wins), so that's where this'll be concentrated.

- No player reached 3000 hits this season. Unless Bonds comes back next year and gets those last 65 hits he needs, I don't believe anyone will before 2011. Griffey's the closest and he still needs 321, meaning he'd need 161 hits a year the next 2 years to get there before '11. For the record, the last time Griffey got at least 161 hits was 1999. After him, it's Vizquel (2657), Sheffield (2615), Pudge Rodriguez (2605), Luis Gonzalez (2591), and Jeter (2635). I think Jeter really has the best shot. He's the youngest, has the least injury history, and I don't think his hitting skills have declined quite as sharply as the others.

- Thing I noticed: If you make it to 2500 hits, there appears to be a roughly 1 in 3 chance you make it to 3000. Subracting guys who were still playing this season, there are 82 people in the 2500+ hit club, and 27 in the 3000. So I mentioned 6 guys after Bonds, means one more besides Jeter will get there. Let's say Sheff. There's a chance his personality will hurt his employment opportunities, but I think he's still probably a better hitter than any of the others.

- Jeter, Gonzalez, and Pudge were the only 3 to reach 2500 hits this season. Barring retirement or lots of injuries, Frank Thomas (2468) and Jeff Kent should get there next year (2461)*. A-Rod, ManRam, and Garrett Anderson all should make it as well. Wow, does one of those guys not seem to fit with the others?

- If you make it to 2000, you've got a better than 1-in-3 chance of reaching 2500 (excluding active players 234 players vs 82), so good news for the fellows who made it this season: Vlad, Ray Durham, Edgar Renteria, Grudz, Jim Thome, and Carlos Delgado. Odds are good that Jason Kendall, Todd Helton, Bobby Abreu, Miguel Tejada, Magglio Ordonez, and Ichiro will be joining them. Jim edmonds needs 119, but he hasn't had that many hits in a season since 2005, so I'm not betting on it.

- Ichiro, on the other hand, needs 195, and I have no doubts he'll get there, provided one of his teammates doesn't beat him senseless. I really wish Ichiro could have been playing here in the US since he was 20. He could have made a run at Pete Rose. He's racked up an average of 225 hits a year since he got here. For comparison, Albert Pujols, a pretty fair hitter himself, averages 186 hits a year. That's how they've been playing the same number of years, but Ichiro is about 270 hits ahead. 'Course, Albert has twice as many extra-base hits, and considerably more walks, but still, that's a lot of freaking hits.

- Well, Griffey cost Ken that bet, but he did manage to limp across the 600 homer mark this year, and even passed Sosa by the end of the year. I really doubt he'll be catching Mays, though. Unless A-Rod gets 47 dingers, he'll have to wait for '10 to get to 600. Manny made it to 500, while Sheff came up 1 short, which is closer than I though he'd get after the way the season started for him. I would hope Sheffield can get that last one, and Carlos Delgado might get there as well (469). Chipper Jones made it to 400, and Giambi and Vlad will probably get there next year (assuming Giambi's still playing). I'm not so certain about Edmonds (382), Kent (377), and I need to see that Andruw Jones (371) has something left before I predict he even makes it to 380.

- Not many big milestones in the win category. Maddux did reach 350, and even managed to pass by Clemens before the season ended. I'm not Maddux' biggest fan, since my team was a frequent victim of umps giving Maddux that "strike" six inches off the outside corner, but credit where credit is due, man knows how to pitch.

- Randy Johnson is still 5 wins shy of 300, though he did move from a tie with Fergie Jenkins and Ross Mullane for 28th on the list, to sole possession of 25th place. Mussina got his 1st 20 win season. I'd be happier for him, but I'm still dumbfounded by that comment about how the NL needs the DH because American League pitchers aren't used to having to turn while running. Jesus, Mussina, you really sounded like a dumbass with that one. Did jump from 46th to a tie for 33rd on the alltime list.

- Jamie Moyer won 16 games, and he's up to 246. This guy is awesome. Consider that he didn't get his 50th career win until his age 31 season, and now he's at almost 250. And he's a soft-tosser, so loss of velocity with age is nothing to him, and he's a lefty, so teams are going to be interested as long as he still wants to pitch. I really want him to just keep chugging along, until he hits 300 wins at age 50, and afterwards he looks at the assembled sports media and says "H. O. F. Hall O' Fame, chumps! Write it down!" I don't see him doing that, but it'd be classic**.

- I tell you though, if Moyer and Moose don't get there, I'm not sure who will make it to 300. Or even 250 for that matter. Look at the guys with 200 wins after Moyer. Kenny Rogers (219): Hurt last year, lousy this year. Curt Schilling (216): Facing the prospect of serious arm surgery to return. Andy Pettitte (215): Got a chance, but his numbers drooped a bit this year. He might want to try scrambling back to the NL, and hooking up with a team with a bitchin' offense. Pedro (214): Been hurt a lot. John Smoltz (210) Facing prospect of major arm surgery to return - again. Was willing to go back to the bullpen, which might help Hall of Fame candidacy by bolstering save totals, but isn't going to add to the "W" column much***.

- The next guy on the active list after that is Tim Wakefield (178). I know he's a knuckleballer, and can thus pitch forever, but it'll probably take him into 2011 just to reach 200 wins. I don't see him sticking around long enough to get to 250****.

- Smoltz made it to 3000 strikeouts, and Mussina probably makes it 2010. After that? Well, Moyer's at 2248, so at the pace he goes, it should only take another 7 seasons. Pettitte and Javier Vazquez(!) got to 2000 Ks this year, so kudos to them.

- It wouldn't be a post by me without discussing some Cardinals, so quickly. Albert (and Derrek Lee for the Cub fan in the audience) each reached 1500 hits this year. Aaron Miles got his 500th (and 600th) hits this season. Mark Worrell, Mike Parisi, Brian Barden, Rico Washington Joe Mather, Nick Stavinoha, and Brian Barton all got their first major league hits.

- Albert and Troy Glaus reached 300 home runs. Chris Duncan and Ryan Ludwick each got to 50. Barton, Worrell, and Mather all hit their first career home runs.

- Mitch Boggs, Kyle McClellan, Chris Perez, and Jaime Garcia each recorded their first career wins. Perez, McClellan, Jason Motte, and Anthony Reyes each got their first major league saves. Izzy, sadly, came up short of 300 career saves. I say "sadly", because the Cardinals are interested in bringing him back, and if they do, I'm certain LaRussa would give him every opportunity he could to get there, until he was finally convinced Izzy can't hack it anymore.

- And on that angry note, I'm calling it here. So, who's everybody rooting for between the Twins and ChiSox? I'm basically pulling for whoever makes things easier for Tampa, but I'm not sure who that is. The Sox have the offense, as opposed to the Twins who seem to revolve around Mauer and Morneau, and nothing else. The Twins seem more sound defensively, and I think their rotation is less battered.

* Turns out Kent just passed Ozzie on the all-time hits list with that last one. Boo, Jeff Kent.

** Admittedly, I had this same dream about Julio Franco creeping his way up to 3000 hits, about 100 a year, getting there at age 50, just to present the voters with the question of whether they had to put him in now?

*** For the record, I'd still put Smoltz in the Hall. Probably all of the others too, except Rogers, I think. He just doesn't scream "Hall of Famer" to me. Probably because his most notable moments involve cameraman shoving, crashing and burning in the playoffs as a Yankee, and him and his sticky hand in the '06 World Series.

**** I hope by the time Wakefield retires we get a few more knuckleballers in the game. Ken hates them, but I love 'em. They make the game more interesting, because they aren't the fireballer, blowing smoke by you, and they aren't exactly the cunning junkballer, who relies on location, because they aren't sure where the ball is going themselves. That's what they rely on, and I just think that's kind of cool.