Cardinals 2008 End O' The Season Review - Pitchers

I don't know why this has taken so long to get around to. Work hasn't really interfered, I haven't been distracted by the playoffs or anything of that sort, I simply haven't been able to get to it. I guess I can't decide whether I want to change formats or not. I think I'll just stick with usual format, though having started it, I think it's going to run long enough I'll split it into 2 parts, pitchers and position players.

The Cardinals finished with 86 wins, and even ended on a 6-game winning streak, which partially covered the fact they were 7-13 in September before that. And the Wild Card was right there for the taking! The Mets and Brewers were just dicking around like a bunch of damn hippies, with their stupid hackey sacks!! Seriously though, I'm OK. They certainly exceeded my 'if a few things go right, they could maybe reach .500' prediction from March. As a team, they were 1st in the NL in batting average, 2nd in OBP, and 3rd in slugging. They were 7th in ERA, had the 4th fewest walks, but the fewest Ks. Sigh. I'm getting kind of tired of them not striking anybody out.

Rotation - Kyle Lohse had his best season ever, going 200 innings with a 3.76 ERA, and a VORP of 35.3 (39.2 pitching, -3.9 hitting). He's listed at 6 Pitching Runs Above Average (PRAA), but 55 Pitching Runs Above Replacement (PRAR), both career bests. His fielding independent ERA (FIP) says he was a bit lucky, as it says he should have a 3.92. I'm willing to excuse that because it's how TLR and Duncan build their teams: have good defensive players, and pitchers that take advantage/rely on it. He also had 80 Pitching Runs Created (PRC). For 4.5 mil, Lohse was a bargain. At $41 million over the next 4 years? Um. . . Well, he was a major bargain for the team this year!

Looper is the one who really impressed me. At the beginning of the year, I was hoping for 185 IP, ERA of 4.50ish. That would have represented an improvement on last year. He gave the Cards 199 IP, and a 4.16 ERA. Only 12-14, but he got screwed by the bullpen a couple times (including his last start where Franklin blew it in the 9th, then got the win after the offense bailed his ass out in the bottom of the 9th. More evidence that Wins are worthless as a stat). His VORP was 33.5 (25.7 pitching, 7.8 hitting, which makes him the 9th best hitter on the team). His K/9 was only 4.88, but he walked just 2.04/9IP, which was best amongst the starters. Some of the other stats are less impressed. He's listed at -6 PRAA, his FIP is 4.58, and he recorded 68 PRC (behind Lohse and Welly). I'm not going to complain, though, given the road he took to get here.

Wellenmeyer completes the Starter Surprise Trifecta. He went over 190 IP, kept his BB/9IP at 2.91 (this was a guy with a career walk rate of about 4.5/9IP before this year), kept his strikeouts sort of up (6.29/9IP; it's good for a Cards' starter, anyway), and posted an ERA of 3.71. Racked up a VORP of 36.6 (37.3 pitching, -0.7 hitting), which makes him the 2nd most valuable pitcher on the team. The Colonel is listed as a +7 PRAA, a PRC of 79, and a FIP of 4.56 (which means he got a pretty serious boost from his defense, moreso than the other two). I wonder whether he can improve next year, much as Looper did this year. He's a little younger, he'd been starting (in the minors) more recently than Looper had prior to his conversion, and I think Wellenmeyer has better pure stuff. I worry that drop in walk rate is a fluke rather than a sign of actual improvement. Again, I can't complain with this year's results.

Pineiro? Now him I can complain about. He was the 2nd highest paid member of the regular rotation ($5 mil to BLoop's $5.5), and he was bad. His VORP was 4.5 (5.7 pitching, -1.2 hitting). I know he's the 5th starter, but I still find that pretty bad. He was 9th amongst the pitchers, behind 4 relievers, including one with about 1/7 Pineiro's innings to raise his VORP. PRAA? -15! He more than cancels out Lohse and Welly! PRC is 43, which puts him behind all the other starters, even the one that threw fewer innings (more on him in a sec). His K (4.9) and BB (2.12) rate were similar to Looper's, and his HR rate (1.33 vs. 1.13) isn't that much worse. His FIP is 4.78, which suggets he got screwed by the defense almost as much as Looper got helped. So maybe I'm being unfair, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't disappointed in his performance. I wasn't expecting the #s Wellenmeyer gave us, but something close to what I hoped for from Looper would have been nice. But when a guy hasn't been a serviceable starter since 2003, it's probably a good idea to quit expecting that to change.

Wainwright picked up more or less where he left off last year, continuing to pitch like a #1, maybe even an ace in the making. Then he got hurt in June, and we didn't see him for about 2 months, and he was up and down upon his return, and he ended up at 132 IP. Still, his VORP was 39.3 (33.2 pitching, 6.1 hitting), so even in abbreviated time, he was the most valuable pitcher on the team (by that metric). His BB rate was worse than all the starters save Welly, but 2.32 is nothing to be alarmed at, especially since he can actually strike people out (6.2K/9). His PRAA is +10, and his PRC was 61, which puts him pretty close to Looper in almost 70 fewer innings. FIP was 3.82, which suggests he was lucky. Not as much as Welly, but more so than BLoop or Lohse. I don't understand that. His line drive % (19.2) is the best among the starters, same with his infield fly/flyball % (16.9). Since line drives go for hits about 75% of the time, fewer of those should mean fewer baserunners, thus fewer runs. Likewise, infield flies are pretty easy outs, so getting more of your flyballs to be those should help. His HR rate was better than all the others as well, which also ought to help his case. It is interesting that Lohse has the highest LD% (22.1), and did OK, while Piniero had the worst IF/F% (3.9) and was getting shelled. Of course his % of flyballs that became HRs was also the highest of the group, so that probably explains part of that. It just doesn't add up to me why FIP says Wainwright should only have an ERA 0.1 better than Lohse, instead of the 0.5 ERA lists. The actual results are what matter most, though it worries me that Wagonmaker's sounding a bit lucky.

I should mention Carpenter, huh? Well, there's not much to say. When last we did this, he'd left his start against the Cubs with arm troubles. Well, he came back to make one relief appearance in September, and went back to the DL. They're talking about a compressed nerve in his throwing shoulder, which Carp doesn't want surgery on, and is a situation I've seen described as "unprecedented". Oh goody. But don't worry, the team medical director assures us it's 90% certain Carp will pitch next year. This would be the same guy who kept assuring us Muldoo would be ready any time now, so you know, feel free to abandon all hope of Carpenter being useful to the Cardinals as a pitcher ever again.

Bullpen - I've been ranting about the 'pen for months. I can't figure why Tony insisted on continuing to use Franklin in the 9th. Especially after Franklin said he wasn't comfortable pitching the 9th, and was actively trying to pretend it was the 7th or the 8th. Shouldn't that be a warning bell for the manager? Some pitchers are not meant for closing! Just ask Cub fans about LaTroy Hawkins (be prepared to duck). He did fine for the Twins as a set-up guy, but he couldn't close. As it is, Franklin was worth a VORP of 15.3 (just pitching in this section). His K rate isn't anything special (5.83), and that BB (3.43) is still higher than I'd like. His ERA was 3.55, but FIP says he ought to have been 4.66. I know I said above the actual results are what's important, but, guh. He and Springer tied for 6th on the team with 32 PRC.

Speaking of Springer, Russ really surprised me. I thought for sure last year was a fluke and we'd regret giving him a 1 year, $3.5 mil deal, then he goes and proves himself as the most reliable reliever we've got. Kinda made me look like a jawkawss theah, huh Russ? Aw, I forgive you. Springer's VORP was 17.6, he K'd over 8 per 9 IP, and kept his BB rate (3.22) below Franklin's. Of course, FIP (3.58) says Russ (2.32 ERA) was even more defense assisted than Franklin. Hmm.

McClellan slumped pretty badly at the end of the year, probably due to fatigue, and there's some debate about whether he should compete for a rotation slot next year (he was previously a starter), or stay in the bullpen. I guess if he can be a good starter (or at least better than Jo-El) then give it a whirl. He had a VORP of 10.5 and a PRC of 29. 7 Ks and 3 BB per 9 IP. Flores came off the DL in September, made six generally ineffective appearances, and went back on the DL. I think his contract is done, so we may finally be free of him. VORP of 0.1, and PRC of 7? *shakes head sadly* There were times Villone looked useful, usually involving lefthanded hitters or games the Cards were losing badly. Other times, not so much. VORP of 4.3, PRC of 18. So I feel Tony will need to find two new lefty relievers. or he could just, you know, focus on finding good pitchers, regardless of which side they throw from. Perhaps we could expect them to retire hitters regardless of which side they bat from? Novel concept, I know.

Brad Thompson endured his usual back and forth between the StL and Memphis, as well as the bullpen and the rotation. He made six starts, one good, one really poor, the other four sort of meh. That sums him up pretty well, I think. I'd be fine with him in next year's pen, as the spot starter/long reliever/mop-up guy. He seems willing and mostly able. Izzy got shut down in mid-August. VORP's listed at -1.2, and you know, I have a hard time believing it shouldn't be worse. He looked so completely done. Meanwhile, Chris Perez had his ups and downs. Saved 7 games, but blew a couple in a row in there. Strikes out over a batter an inning, but walks one roughly every 2 innings, which is too high. Still racked up an 8.1 VORP, and 19 PRC, and I'd rather see him in the 9th than Izzy, Franklin, or really, anybody except perhaps Springer.

The team did get some help from a couple of September call-ups by the names Jason Motte and Josh Kinney. Kinney was part of the '06 postseason bullpen, but has been shelved with repeated elbow issues, related to a nasty slider he throws (nasty to both the hitters and him, apparently). Motte was a catcher who converted to pitcher in the mid-minors. He currently throws very hard, and I'm not sure whether he has more than 1 pitch. The two combined for 18 innings, allowing just 8 hits, 4 walks, and 2 runs (1 earned, both by Motte), while striking out 24 (16 of those by Motte in 11 innings). Motte had a VORP of 4.9 (better than Villone in less than 1/4 the innings) and a PRC of 11 (basically equal to Izzy in about 1/4 the innings). Kinney had a VORP of 4.4.

Tony says none of the kids (Kinney, Motte Perez) can count on making the team next year, which is fine, since you don't want them getting too cocky. The only problem is, you know the same doesn't apply to say, Franklin, Villone, or Izzy (if the latter two are resigned, which i would prefer they not be, especially Izzy. Better to cut ties alltogether than have him around for LaRussa to get tempted to use him to close, whether he can or not). I highly doubt that if Franklin shows up next spring, out of shape or pitching like crap, that Tony wouyld send him to the minors or order him released. But that's life with LaRussa. *cue freeze frame and cheesy '80s sitcom theme*

If it's up to me, I'd like next year to have a rotation of Halladay, Carpenter, Wainwright, Lohse, and Wellenmeyer. In the real world, I guess I'll have to settle for Wainwright, Lohse, Wellenmeyer, Pineiro, and either Mitch Boggs or P.J. Walters. Bullpen wise, let's say Perez, Franklin, Motte, Kinney, Thompson, McClellan, and some random journeyman lefty, to make LaRussa happy.