Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Cardinals Fan + Too Much Time = This

For some reason, I got interested in trends with the Cardinals, regarding stability at various positions. So I went to Baseball-Reference and looked at who the primary player was at each position every year from 1982 on. I chose '82 basically since it was the start of the Ozzie Smith Era, and 27 seasons seemed like a decent sample size. In this study, "primary player" means the player who played the most innings at a particular position in a given season. Baseball-Reference has the breakdown on innings listed as part of their defensive stats, but it's just as easy to see who's listed at each position on the offensive statistics. Anyone without a position next to their name wasn't "the guy" at any position that year.

So, over 27 seasons, what did I find? Here's the breakdown, listed as number of different players that were the primary guy for at least 1 season. I also included in parentheses the number of players for the 14 seasons pre-LaRussa (the Herzog/Torre Years) and for the 13 years of the TLR Era: They don't always match the overall total because some players were starters in both eras:

Catcher - 10 (6/5); 1st base - 13 (9/5); 2nd base - 12 (4/9); 3rd base - 10 (4/6); SS - 6 (2/4); LF - 11 (4/7); CF - 6 (3/4); RF - 16 (9/8)

Observations:

- Shortstop and centerfield are the most stable positions overall, and rightfield and 1st base are the most in flux. The Herzog/Torre years mirror this, with the least change at SS and CF, and the most at 1B and RF. In the LaRussa Era, it's also SS and CF that change the least, but 2nd is the most unstable, followed by RF.

- The most change from one year to the next is six positions, in both 1999 and 2005. In '99, the Cards had new starters at 2nd (Joe McEwing), 3rd (Fernando Tatis), SS (Edgar Renteria), LF (Ray Lankford), CF (J.D. Drew), and RF (Eric Davis). In '05, it was C (Molina), 2nd (Grudzielanek), 3rd (Abraham Nunez, 'cause Rolen got leveled by a giant Korean 1st baseman), SS (Eckstein), LF (Reggie Sanders), and RF (Larry Walker). The 1991, 1995, and 2008 teams each had five new starters.

- The least change belongs to the 2001 squad, who only had a different 3rd baseman (Placido Polanco).

- One unusual trend appears at CF. As noted above, the Cardinals have had six of them in the past 27 seasons. Three of these were (or are at the moment) the primary guy for just one season: Milt Thompson in 1989, J.D. Drew in 1999, and Rick Ankiel in 2008. The other three, each held the position for 8 seasons: Willie McGee (82-88, 90), Ray Lankford (91-98), and Jim Edmonds (00-07). It's works out almost perfectly to 8 years, then 1, 8 years, then 1. If past trends are any indication (they probably aren't) Rick Ankiel will be the primary RF next year, since that's what happened to both Thompson and Drew.

- Besides that logjam, every other position has one player with the most seasons as starter under their belt. Tom Pagnozzi at catcher (6 years; 91-96), Albert at 1st (5 and counting; 04-08), Tom Herr at 2nd (7; 81*-87), Terry Pendleton at 3rd (7; 84-90), Ozzie at SS (13; 82-94), Vince Coleman in LF (6; 85-90), and J.D. Drew in RF (4; 00-03**). What seems apparent is that it was easier in the '80s, when perhaps free agency wasn't as big, to keep players you deemed vital for long stretches. Or perhaps the LaRussa/Jocketty duo just weren't into giving long-term contracts to players as often. More money being risked, I suppose.

- Only one other Cardinal had more than two seasons as the rightfielder: Brian Jordan in 1995, 1996, and 1998 (he was injured much of 1997, thus John Mabry was the guy that year. Ugh.)

- The Cardinals used a different 2nd baseman every year from 2002-2007. Fernando Vina (capping a 3-year stretch), Bo Hart, Tony Womack, Grudz, AAAron Miles, and Adam Kennedy. Figures that the worst of the bunch would be the one to break the streak.

- Starting in 1988, with the trade of Tom Herr for Tom Brunansky, 2nd base went through another odd sequence for the next several years. In 1988 the starter was Luis Alicea, but it was deemed he couldn't hit well enough yet. Thus Jose Oquendo went from super-sub to stater from '89 to '91. In 1992, Oquendo was hurt, and this started a 3 year stretch where Alicea platooned with Geronimo Pena, Alicea being the starter in 92 and 93, Pena in 94. Over those three seasons, the total difference in innings at 2nd between the two was Alicea, by only 308. After '94, Alicea was traded to Boston, Pena was hurt or ineffective, so it was Oquendo's turn again. Sadly, he couldn't hit anymore***. In 1996, Alicea came back and was the starter again. It's a very odd 9 years.

- Milt Thompson pulled off an unusual feat. He was a starter every year from 1989 through 1991, but at a different position each year. He took over for an injured McGee in center in '89, for the traded (for Lee Smith) Tom Brunansky in right in '90, then started in left in '91, as Bernard Gilkey wasn't ready to assume the role.

- Ray Lankford is the only player to pull off multiple years at multiple positions, spending 8 years as the CF, and another 4 as the LF ('99-'01, and 2004). Edit: Make that one of two players. I forgot that Albert Pujols was starter in LF for 2 years, as well as being the first baseman for 5 years thus far.

- Speaking of left field, the Cards have used a different starter there every year since 2003, including this season. The tally: Albert Pujols, Lankford, Reggie Sanders, So Taguchi, Chris Duncan, and Skip Schumaker.

- I'd have to really go over the numbers, but it seems a safe bet the most productive 1st baseman the Cardinals had between the Jack Clark years (85-87), and the McGwire years (98-01) was Gregg Jefferies (93-94). The competition sounds good, but was msotly udnerwhelming: Bob Horner (88), Pedro Guerrero (89-91), Andres Galarraga (92****), John Mabry (95-96), and Dmitri Young (97). OK, the names get less impressive at the end, but still.

- You know what's crazy about the 2001 season? Albert Pujols was second on the team in ABs that year, behind only Vina, but he wasn't the starter at any position! He was second to McGwire at 1st (724 innings to 287), behind Polanco at 3rd (810 to 431), second to Lankford in left (663 to 309), and second to Drew in right (780 to 302). That strikes me as insane somehow, that he couldn't breakthrough as the starter anywhere - until August. That's when Lankford got swapped in a waiver wire deal for Woody Williams*****, and the position became Albert's.

- The 1995 Cardinals starting infield: John Mabry, Jose Oquendo, Scott Cooper, and Tripp Cromer at shortstop. No wonder they were so bad that year.

- The Cards have had a lot of rightfielders for only two years. George Hendrick was the guy for two years ('82 and '84, plus '79 and '80), Andy van Slyke, Tom Brunansky, Felix Jose, Mark Whiten, Juan Encarnacion. Those guys comprise 12 of the 27 seasons between them. 8 of the other seasons go to one-year wonders (that's counting Ludwick, pending next year's results).

- I sort of think this would even out if I went over the team's entire history. Certainly the Stan Musial years would help at right field. But I've kind of had the impression the Cardinals don't tend to hang onto first basemen for very long. I know their '60s teams featured two different guys, Bill White and Orlando Cepeda, each of whom they got from the Giants, and each of whom was only the guy for about 3 seasons. I don't know that I have the wherewithal to go all the way back to 1900 or so.

- Maybe you should try it for your favorite team, see if there are positions where they seem to have long steady stretches, and ones where there's a constant search for that franchise {insert position here}. You know, if you have that kind of time.

* I know I said I was only going back to 1982, but I did want to be accurate about these things, and give players their full due when it comes to their longevity. Seemed important somehow.

** That annoys me. I was not a fan of Drew and his inability to stay on the field, and him getting to be on that list with players I either like or am indifferent to is irritating. So I note that Drew only played 2,799 of the 5,777 possible RF innings during those 4 years, which is just under 2 full seasons worth of playing time. In interests of fairness, he also logged 619 innings at the other outfield spots during those seasons, bringing his total innings played up to 3,418, which is 59.1% of the total innings, compared to the 48.5% when you only consider RF.

*** Though in 1995, that was true of basically everyone on the team except the starting outfield.

**** You're surprised, right? Yeah, well, he sucked. .673 OPS that year. Freaking Luis Alicea beat him by 32 points in OPS!

***** I still can't believe how well that worked out. I give Dave Duncan a lot of crap for Anthony Reyes, but he sure seemed to pull something off with Woody Williams. Or maybe it was just the defense behind him, combined with their awesome offense.

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2 Comments:

At 4:16 PM, Blogger Jason said...

Thanks, now I know what I'm doing tonight. Ug, I used to sleep, once.

 
At 11:02 PM, Blogger CalvinPitt said...

jason: Sleep? Who needs sleep? I'd really like to know what the verdict is for the Cubs.

 

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