Finally, The Divisional Series

That was quite a showing by the Twins offense tonight, huh? Your pitchers surrender 5 hits, and one run, and you lose? Way to go! *thumbs up* Seriously though, heck of a job by Danks. He said "Bring on the Twins!", and he meant it. Unfortunately, waiting on these two teams to quit dicking around has sapped much of my will to discuss this round. That, and I really don't have that much of a clue what I'm talking about. But that never stopped me before*!

Angels vs. Red Sox: So the Angels pretty much kicked the crap out of Boston this season, but Boston smoked Anaheim the last two times they've met in the postseason. I think the former is more relevant than the latter, because some of the people involved in those postseason beatdowns (say, Schilling and ManRam, for example) aren't around anymore. I probably ought to like the Angels more than I do, as they're kind of reminiscent of the '80s Cardinals. They don't walk much (.330 OBP, 12th in AL, while they're 7th in BA), or hit for much power (.413 SLG, 9th), but they steal a lot of bases (129, 2nd), and don't strike out much. They'll be trotting out Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, and John Lackey for this series. I'd be worried about Saunders, and possibly Lackey if I were them. neither one is especially a strikeout pitcher, suggesting they rely more on getting the hitters to chase bad pitches. As someone who watched the '04 Red Sox decimate everyone on the Cardinals staff not named Dan Haren, I can tell you that doesn't work. The Sox don't chase bad pitches. They hit for high average (.280, 2nd in the league), the walk (358 OBP, 1st), they hit for power (.447 SLG, 3rd), and they even steal bases (120, 3rd). Jason Bay hasn't been quite as good as Manny was (.897 OPS vs .927), but he's got to be less of a pain in the ass, so that has to be something.

Offhand, I'd say the Sox were the better team, but then you have to consider that Mike Lowell and J.D. Drew (surprise!) are hurting, and Beckett has some oblique injury, which tend to nag at you unless you simply shut down until it's completely healed**. So there's that. I'd really love to pick the Angels, because I, frankly, depise the Red Sox. So I will. Even though Anaheim's lineup appears weaker, even with the Sawx possible injuries (Tex, Vlad, and Torii Hunter are the only starters with above average OPS). I think the Angels are ready. I don't think they'll be intimidated by Fenway in October, and I don't see Beckett pitching like he has in October's past. Angels in 4.

Rays vs. White Sox: The Rays are 13 in the league in batting average, but 5th in OBP, and 8th in SLG. So they've got some power, and they know how to draw walks. And they're 1st in steals, so they can run a bit. Their pitchers are 3rd in Ks, and 8th in walks, which is encouraging. I'm guessing they'll be going some combo of Shields, Garza, and Kazmir. Kazmir can be a little erratic, when he isn't hurt, and Garza hasn't been past the 5th in his last 3 starts, and he hasn't been striking guys out. He's 100 innings above his previous high, so fatigue could be a factor.

Of course, fatigue almost certainly has to be a factor for the ChiSox. They don't hit for average, they're merely average at drawing walks, they don't run, but they hit for a lot of power. Their pitchers walk very few, and strike out plenty, so that suggests the Rays' lineup plays into their hands (the Rays are patient enough to draw those walks, but they also whiff a lot, so they may be too patient). Still, I'm not sure what Guillen has to work with. Danks pitched well tonight, so I don't see him being useful before Saturday, at the earliest. I guess you can use Floyd on Friday, and Buehrle on Thursday, but that's putting all of them on 3 days' rest, and again, the Rays are a pretty dangerous lineup, so tired pitchers could be risky. I'm not sure what the alternative is though, I get the feeling Ozzie doesn't trust Vazquez after the egg he laid on Saturday against Detroit.

I know the Rays are young and inexperienced and all that, but we've been waiting for them to fade all year, and it hasn't happened yet, so I'm not going against them now, especially against a White Sox team that could have wrapped their division up last week, but instead dragged it out as long as they possibly could. Tampa in 4.

Cubs vs. Dodgers: I'd seen people talking about the importance of Jim Edmonds in this series, since the Dodgers will be using 3 righty starters, and other than Jimmy and Kosuke, the Cubs usual lineup lacks lefties. I figured that with the pedigree of hitters the Cubs had, it couldn't be that dire, so I checked. Aramis Ramirez should be fine. His OPS is actually 200 points higher against RHP than LHP. DeRosa, Soto, and Theriot all fare a little worse against RHP, but it's about 50 points of OPS tops. Now Soriano, he's got problems. His OPS against LHP is over 1.100 (so he's Albert Pujols). His OPS against righties is about .780 (Skip Schumaker). So there could be something to this. Of course, it's always risky putting the focus on Edmonds, who is such a streaky hitter. If he's on, boy Cubs fans will be estatic. If he's off, it's going to be ugly. He'll be uppercut swinging over pitches all series long. Fortunately, Dempster and Harden seem like solid bets in the rotation, Marmol's awesome and Wood, well Wood reminds me a bit of Good Izzy: He makes it interesting, but usually succeeds. As for Big Z, I wonder if they wouldn't be better off starting him in Game 3. He has issues with controlling himself, it might be better for him not to start at Wrigley, where you know he'll feed off the fans, perhaps to his detriment, and instead start at Dodger Stadium, where I imagine the fans will be more, shall we say, sedate?

As for the Dodgers, Manny helps the offense (if for no other reason than he got Pierre out of the everyday lineup), but if they don't get Furcal back, everyone of their regular infielders will be below average offensively. I am impressed by their starters though. Between Lowe, Billingsley, and Kuroda, they're pretty well stocked. Still, they were only an 83 win team for a reason. Whether the postseason enables them to hide those reasons (like it did for the '06 Cards) is another matter. I'm picking, sigh, the Cubs in 4. I think the Dodgers have too many holes in their lineup, and unlike the Angels, they aren't facing a team with several injury issues.

Phillies vs. Brewers: I love that Sveum doesn't know who his Game 3 starter is yet. Dave, go with Suppan. I know he hasn't been that good for you this year, but hey, he was the 2006 NLCS MVP, and in 2004, he outdueled Roger Clemens in a Game 7. Gotta go with that pedigree dude, start that vet. Whoa, I channeled Dusty Baker there for a second. Anyway, his other 2 starters are Yovanni and C.C. So we've got one guy coming back early from a knee injury, and another guy who's thrown about 700 onnings for you this month. But, as someone noted, what do the Brewers care? CC won't be there next year, let some other sucker team pony up big money and watch his arm fall off (please, not the Cardinals).

The Phillies have got Cole Hamels, I believe Bret Myers (I can't get any of the pages I wanted to get info from to load right now, so I'm flying blind), and then Jamie Moyer. Hamels is really the only sure bet there, I'd say. Myers is mentally unstable, and Moyer, well, I love him, but if his control is off, the Brewers have the lineup to bash him to pieces. Of Course, the Phillies lineup isn't full of slouches, either, and they're facing a pitching staff that's either hurt, gassed, or crappy. Phillies in 3.

Given recent trends in baseball, I'm sure I've made a grave error picking all the teams with more wins to advance, but I'm not putting any money on this, so what the hell. If I can get any of those pages to load tomorrow, I might go back and try and add to these. Or I may not. We'll see.

* False. Recognizing I don't know what I'm talking about has stopped me before, because I didn't want to get ridiculed for having no clue what I was posting about.

** Woody Williams had one in '02, and kept trying to come back too soon all summer. So he'd come back, make a few starts, go back on the DL, come back too soon, reaggravate it, and so on.