Friday, December 05, 2008

Cardinals Trade For Khalil Greene

Well, I guess that answers the "Who's shortstop?" issue for another season. Greene had a lousy year last year, though. Even setting aside missing the last few months with a broken hand he got from punching something, he actually hit worse than Izturis. Yes, I'm serious. Green had a .599 OPS, while Izturis had a .628. Plus, Izturis was rated at 6 FRAA, and Greene was -2. And Greene's going to cost $6.5 million. And Green can't even blame his lousy hitting on Petco, because his OPS was actually better at home (.651) than on the road (.542).

So that's the bad news. Good news, offensively this year was unusually poor for Greene. Even counting 2008, his career road OPS is .802, versus a .658 home mark. In his four full seasons prior to this, his OPS sat between .727 and .795, though that high mark was 2004, so probably Khalil taking advantage of the league's relative unfamiliarity with him. But even if he puts up the .759 he had in 2007, that's a major improvement over Izturis. And in 2007, he was +8 FRAA, and +14 in 2006, so he can be at the very least, an average defensive shortstop.

Granted, he doesn't walk much. His highest OBP is .349 (2004), and the largest gap between OBP and batting average was the .076 he put up that season, though he had a .075 in 2006. But not walking just means he'll fit in with all the other middle infielders they have (Miles, Kennedy, maybe Lopez). On the plus side, he has some power. For his career, he averages 21 HRs every 162 games, which is nothing to scoff at. Before last season, his isolated power (slugging minus batting average) had risen each season from '04-'07 (.173, .181, .182, .214). So assuming last year was just a fluke, and not a sign that he's completely lost the ability to play baseball, he ought to rebound to be a decent enough player.

I can't speak to how much of a bargain it was. For one, the Pads are just trying to dump payroll, so that made things a little easier. Second, we don't know who the 2nd player the Cardinals gave up is yet. The first one is Mark Worrell, who had a brief callup with the team last year. He didn't have a lot of success on the mound, and the day of the trade, he had an interview where he repeatedly complained of how the Cardinals never gave him a fair shot. Normally, a kid who hasn't proven anything would be advised to shut his mouth, but given that Worrell was striking out 80 batters in 58 innings as AAA, but kept getting passed over for callups by Kelvim Jimenez, who has never done anything other than suck in the majors, he probably has a beef. But just based on Worrell, the Cards would have pulled off a steal.

But there's the catch, we don't know who the player to be named later is, except that he wasn't on the major league roster at the end of the season, and he's more highly touted than Worrell. I guess the Padres haven't decided yet, and apparently they don't have to until April 1st. Does that seem a little odd to anyone else? You can make a trade, and not decide which player you'll be receiving for four months? Well, hopefully it's nobody too highly touted, since Greene is likely a one-year rental*.

* I figure if he's bad, the Cards won't want him back. If he's excels, he'll get someone to give him big money, and it probably won't be the Cardinals. Though Glaus does come off the books after next year.

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