Cardinals' 41 Game Mark Season Review

So we're about a quarter of the way through the season. The Rays are in first in the AL East, to the consternation of the two fellows who run the comic shop I go to (they're both Yankees' fans). The AL Central looks like a real mess, and nobody looks particularly good so far, but if it keeps up, at least it'll make for a tight pennant race. The collapse the Mariners began last fall (costing them their shot at the Wild Card) has continued this year, and it's so bad even Ichiro isn't hitting .300. I really wish Ichiro had been playing over here right from the start, instead of spending all those years in Japan. If he had, I'd say he might have been able to go after Pete Rose's hits record (hey, this is only his 8th season, he's already over 1600). Meanwhile the Marlins have the edge in the NL East, though it looks like everyone except Washington will be in contention in that division this year. The Padres and the Rockies both stink, which makes me think Arizona might run away with that division, and then there's the NL Central, unsurprisingly lead by the Cubs. What is surprising is that the teams people were suggesting would challenge them, Milwaukee and Cincinnati, are sitting in 4th and 6th place, and it's the Cardinals and the Astros that are closest so far. But it's still early.

As to the Cardinals, I'm struggling with expectations. On the one hand, I said they might be .500 this year, so the fact they've started this well is a pleasant gift. On the other hand, once they started that way, I wanted them to stay there, and the fact they're now stuck behind the Cubs is kind of annoying me. I don't think I expected them to stay in 1st all year, but it would have been nice if they could have. Sadly, they've stumbled of late, winning just 3 of the last 9 (and 1 of the last 7). But let's break it down a bit.

Rotation: So far, they've only used six starters, and Brad Thompson's start on April 8 is the last one by someone other than the current 5. The trick with the rotation appears to have been an abundance of home games, as Busch 3 is a bit of a pitchers' park. Not to an extreme, but the pitchers have been better at home every year of its existence. Wainwright has been very impressive thus far, even if he does keep getting hosed by his bullpen (more on them later). I'm still not ready to proclaim him an "ace", but I think I'm ready to say he's a #1 starter, whereas by the end of last season I'd pegged him as a solid #2. Kyle Lohse started out quite well, but that was with him not allowing any HRs, but striking out fewer guys than he had in the past. He's still only allowed two, but his numbers are looking more like his career norms than they were in April. I still feel he'll be a solid Suppan-style pitcher for the Cardinals, which for the price they're paying is pretty good. Wellenmeyer has really surprised me. He's basically a six inning pitcher, but for those six innings he's pretty good. He's throwing strikes, which always helps, and that's kept his walk rate at 3/9 IP, whereas his career average is closer to 4.5. He's also the best power pitcher they've got. The question is whether he has the stamina. Looper started out well last year, then broke down in June and labored the rest of the way. Wellenmeyer's high in innings is 79.3, and he did that last year. He's at 48 now. Something to consider. Speaking of BLoop he's doing alright. He's working a bit deeper into games (he went into the 9th against Colorado last week), but he's also not much more than a six inning pitcher, something he in common with everyone except Wagonmaker. And then there's Pineiro, and he's been up and down. He doesn't strike anyone out, and his K/BB ratio isn't great either, but he's only had only really bad start, and that was his first one. He's another solid back of the rotation guy, to go along with all the others.

On the injury front, Mulder has been shut down following yet another rehab stint where he got whomped by minor leaguers. I suppose that's progress, as the previous two years TLR and Duncan went ahead and threw him in the rotation anyway, with disastrous (and predictable) results. Carpenter's done a little throwing, I think, but it'll still be awhile on him, and Clement seems to have fallen off the face of the earth.

Bullpen: Maybe it's a sign someone out there has a sense of humor. Last year, the only positive thing you could really say about the Cardinals was they had a solid bullpen. Every other unit was hurt or old. This year, all those other parts are largely holding up their end, and the bullpen has decided to fall apart over the last couple of weeks. Izzy appears to be done, but at least he recognizes it, except now Tony has to figure out who can be closer and the pickings are slim. There's a lot of fan support for AAA closer Chris Perez, but he has control issues, and even though Tony's been giving the younger set a chance this year, I imagine he'll exhaust as many veteran options as he can first. Franklin's been OK, though not as steady as he was last year, and Russ Springer has fallen mightily back to earth. Not a surprise, since people who have a career year at 38 don't tend to duplicate the success. Flores and Ron Villione have been pretty solid as the lefties, though Villone crashed and burned last night against Pittsburgh. I don't have high expectations for either of them. McClellan, Parisi, and Reyes have all had good appearances and bad, though Reyes is back starting in the minors, apparently as an attempt to drum up trade bait. Even though I'm a Cards' fan first, part of me would love to see Reyes traded to another team, and come back and kick the shit out of a LaRussa/Duncan coached Cards' squad.

Catcher: Yadier's playing his usual high level of defense (when he isn't getting ejected), but he's not having much success throwing out baserunners (6 for 21 success rate). The blame seems to be pointed at the pitchers, whether it's because they don't hold runners, or they're just slow to the plate I don't know. On the plus side, he's sporting a .724 OPS, which I will gladly take from him. It looks even better in comparison to Jason LaRue, he of the 4 for 35 start to the season. At least he got his average above .100.

Infield: Albert is getting walked - a lot. No surprise, given the lineup around him. He's currently at 1.103 OPS, plus his usual pretty good level of defense, though whenever he makes a mistake (missing a foul ball pop-up, for example) big innings seem to follow. Fortunately he's not making too many of those mistakes. Adam Kennedy's numbers are dropping with his batting average, as he isn't walking much, and he's hitting for very little power. For his career, he has a .389 slugging, and that includes this year's .337, and last year's .290. If his batting average continues to fall, he's going to be a major drag on the team, because his Range Factor suggests he isn't exactly playing a great second base. Meanwhile, Izturis is hitting even worse (.233 AVG/.336 OBP/.282 SLG), but has a Range factor of 4.9 (average for SS is 4.43), so it's sort of excusable. I can't figure how he's managed to walk 13 times this year. Seriously, how do you walk him? He can barely hit! Troy Glaus has been better defensively than I figured, but he's hitting like he's doing his best Scott Rolen, 2007 impersonation, with a slugging of just .382. However, Glaus reminds me of Tom Brunansky: low batting average, power potential, but very streaky, so I'm hoping Troy's about to go on a hot streak, because the offense needs another power bat.

As far as backups go, Aaron Miles is playing a lot more than I'd like, and is putting up the same stat line as Kennedy, except with even less power (.313 SLG?). And of course, LaRussa insists AAAron can play 2B, 3B and SS, but he doesn't really play any of them well, historically. His RF at 3rd is pretty good so far, but both his 2B (4.27; league average is 4.9) and especially his SS (3.15) values are well below average. At least it doesn't look like he'll be third on the team in ABs this year. Brendan Ryan hasn't had a lot of time thus far, but he seems to be in the same mold as Miles and Kennedy: decent batting average, no walks, very little power (.289/.304/.333). On the plus side, he's played a good SS (4.81) and 3B (3.50) in limited duty and he's been better than Miles at 2B (4.50).

Outfield: Well it's a nice change of pace that the Cardinals have five useful outfielders. it means they have someone to use at DH when they play in American League ballparks (my vote is for Duncan). Currently Duncan's power is lacking, and his average is pretty weak, but he's drawing walks and I'll guess that'll have to do. He's still a debacle in the outfield. Skip Schumaker's slowed down from the torrid second half of April, but if he puts up a .289/.365/.401 all year, I'll take it. I'm very impressed with Ankiel, who plays a much better centerfield than I thought he would, has a .500 SLG, and is also drawing walks (I'd suggest he and Duncan are walking because of all the punching Judys in the lineup, so the dangerous hitters are pitched around, but that still wouldn't explain Izturis). Brian Barton's been fairly useful, though he doesn't seem to use his speed much, and Tony keeps insisting on taking him out late in games for defensive replacements (yet he doesn't do that nearly as much with Duncan, who has all the grace of a tranquilized tree sloth). The real story has been Ryan Ludwick, with his currently .701 SLG, which is Bondsian territory right there. I know, early going, long season ahead, probably won't lat, but still, that is really impressive. Plus, he's a pretty good outfielder, and he can play all three spots.