Cardinals '07 Midseason Review

We're a little past the halfway point of the season. So where do the Cardinals stand? Well, they're still defending World Champs, so suck on that, fans of the other 29 teams! At 40-45, they're on pace for 76 wins. That doesn't sound good, until you remember that at the 40-game mark, they were only on pace for roughly 65 wins, so hey, big improvement. They've shown some improvement in other areas, now ranking 11th in the NL in runs/game, and 14th in ERA. That puts them roughly in the bottom third in both categories, which they haven't done for a full season since 1990 (11th out of 12 teams in runs/game, 8th out of 12 in ERA). But like I said, it's better than where they were 45 games ago. So let's go a little deeper.

Rotation:

- The Cardinals are in the unfortunate position of having too many potential starters. It's unfortunate because none of them are really good enough to separate themselves from the pack, so every start is a roll of the dice as to whether the starter gets bombed, or manages to pitch competently.

- On the youth movement front, Wainwright seems to be settling in, though his walk rate is still too high. But he's probably the best they've got right now. Thompson has had his good and bad starts, with the good being really good, and the bad being really bad. It's what you would expect from a starter with a lower strikeout rate than Suppan. Brad is just a little too dependent on his defense for his success. Reyes has been sent to AAA, called back up, and sent back down again. He actually seems lost at this point, as to what he has to do. The braintrust seems less than inclined to let him do it his way, their way doesn't seem to be having great results, so what's his option?

- The fruits of the last couple of free agent markets have been mixed. Looper struggled, went to the DL, and has been so-so since his return. I think he can be a solid guy for the back of the rotation, but he's not going to get back to where he was the first month or so. In other news, Kip Wells has gotten his ERA below 6.00, thanks to the magic of getting dumped in the mop-up relief role. Good spot for him. Sadly he's going back to the rotation after the Break. Really, I think just paying him the rest of his contract to go away would be the most helpful Kipper could be, but it ain't my money, so what do I know?

- Stopgaps are doing about what you would expect. Maroth reminds me of Mulder last year, before the wheels came off. He can be great, he can suck out loud; it's a roll of the dice. And it's all based on guile, because the guy has zero velocity. Wellenmeyer. . . has been better than I expected, but than I'd have wanted him to be, seeing as his good performances help keep Iron Bill stuck in Memphis. Still, that's not Welly's concern, and he has had some good starts (along with some bad ones. Like I said, all these guys are varying degrees of mediocrity).

Bullpen:

- The bullpen had a period there where it slipped a bit, which really isn't too surprising. They've been forced to carry a heavy workload, what with the general ineptitude of the rotation, and guys keep getting shuttled out of the 'pen, to bolster the weak rotation rotation.

- Izzy continues to provide a steady performance. He still makes things interesting, but that's his style I suppose. At least he gets the job done this year. Franklin's held up nicely, and earned himself a new contract, despite not doing the thing he was supposedly signed to do (spot- start). Russ Springer has been OK. Thompson has been up-and-down in relief, just like as a starter. Wellenmeyer was fine out of the pen, limited opportunities he had. Randy Flores stinks. End of discussion. Tyler Johnson was doing very well, then the wheels fell off, now he's hurt. Percival's done pretty well thus far, as has Troy Cate, subbing for TJ. Kelvin Jimenez is thankfully, no longer with the big league club.

Infield:

- YaMo's back from injury, and even though his hitting stats have dropped, he's still better than Bennett/Stinnett. Plus, teams are less inclined to run on him, compared to the other two. Albert's struggling from lack of protection/lack of good pitches to hit. His AVG is twenty points below normal, his OBP ten points, and his SLG is a whopping 115 points below career norms. He still probably chases too many pitches outside, but it isn't in Albert's nature to be Barry Bonds, and calmly accept some godawful number of walks. Eckstein has hit well, when he's been there. Rolen is doing better than he was, but the slugging is still way down. It's .380, and Willie McGee's career slugging was .396. Think about Rolen hitting for less pop than McGee. I like Willie McGee, but that's a bad, bad thing.

- Oh, and Adam Kennedy has played horribly. That is all.

Outfield:

- Well, Duncan's rebounded nicely from that weird knee infection. He's got the highest SLG on the team (.547, 31 points above Albert's), probably benefitting from hitting near Albert. His defense seems to be improving as he grows more comfortable in left, which is a plus. Edmonds hasn't played since June 15th, might not play anymore this year if his back doesn't clear up. He wasn't doing great before, but his being hurt has a trickle-down effect to the rest of the team, same with Eck.

- Encarnacion has an OPS of .763, which is exactly league average. Sums up Juan pretty well, don't you think? Exactly Average Juan Encarnacion. But he's better than what cam before, even if most fans seem unwilling to cut him a break. Anytime he doesn't get to a fly ball, it's because he gave no effort. Well, technically, "no effort" would involve Juan sleeping naked on the field, or still being in bed at home. You could say "less than 100%", but I'd question how they would know that. Am I defending Encarnacion? I guess I just have lower expectations for him than most.

Bench:

- The trickle-down I mentioned earlier is something most fans get pretty easily; namely, that the more your bench guys have to play, past a certain a point, the worse they do. It's good to get them work, but they're bench guys precisely because they can't play every day. Miles has had his average drop from .310 to .290 since the Mets series, because he's playing every night, and he's making more errors because he's playing out of position at SS. Jimmy Eds being hurt overexposes So Taguchi, who's seen a similar decline in his numbers as he's been forced into the everyday lineup.

- In contrast, some of the kids that are getting limited opportunities are doing alright. Ludwick seems to be adjusting to major league pitching. Brendan Ryan is good with the glove, and hitting well enough that I want him in the lineup, to help keep Kennedy out (which would probably overexpose Ryan, but we don't know that for sure about him yet.) Skip Schumaker is still mostly useless, though. And finally, Spiezio's continued to improve his offensive numbers, and how about a big hand for his relief appearance in the Oakland series?

So where does the team go from here? Walt Jocketty apparently said the Cardinals will be buyers at the trade deadline. If they mean this, and aren't just trying to trick teams into giving them better offers for useful players, I'd say this is a very bad idea. I'd be impressed if they could do it, but I do not see the Cards as contending for a playoff spot this year, and would prefer they not mortgage the future on some desperate hope that they can overtake two teams for the division, or how ever many teams are in front of them for the wild card.