NBA Finals Prediction

Well, I got both the series winners wrong this time, but that's OK. At least it's not Spurs/Pistons again. I don't know that I could have handled that, I just hate stifling defense so much.

Boston vs. Los Angeles - I don't like Boston's chances. I know, home court advantage and all, but the Lakers won two in Denver, and one each in Utah and San Antonio, so I think they're capable of doing the same here. On the plus side for the Celtics, they won two road games this round, so maybe they could win one in L.A. as well. That would be interesting.

Here's my the thing as far as Boston is concerned. I worry about their ability to hold leads. Whenever they get big leads, they go into the NBA version of the prevent, where every possession is about using up as much clock as possible, even if it means passing up good shots that would help you score points, and instead just heaving up wounded ducks because the shot clock is about to expire. The shot usually misses, and rebounds allow the other team to run if they want, which they usually do, since they're way behind. The trailing team gets quick baskets and chips away at the lead. That happened to Boston in all three rounds, and they usually held on, but with the way Kobe's going right now, I'm not sure they can do it here.

So let's talk matchups for a bit. I'm guessing Odom will guard Garnett, because he's got a similar body type, so I figure he's quick enough and big enough to bother KG's shooting. On the other hand, I expect KG to guard Pau. He's the primary interior scorer for L.A., so they'll put KG on him to try and stifle him. I don't know who Kobe guards. Pierce is probably the bigger threat, but Allen seems to have rediscovered his shot recently, so they might want to lock him down, to put more pressure on Garnett, Pierce, and the rest. As for gaurding Kobe, well, I guess Allen will try, but I imagine he'll get lots of help from the big men, since Bryant's probably going to drive to the hoop at will. As for the coaches, Phil Jackson vs. Doc Rivers is a seriously one-sided fight. Maybe P.J. Brown could take over as head coach, stage a coup? That'd be kind of cool. The Celtics seem to have found their footing as the playoffs have gone on, and that's good, but they still can't seem to put teams away, and the Lakers have demonstrated that even 20-point leads aren't safe against them. Lakers in 6, but it'll probably be a close, entertaining series, hopefully without too much bitching about the refs. I know, small chance of that when Phil Jackson is involved, but we can hope, right?