Just In Time For The Conference Finals

The Celtics finally managed to finish of the 76ers last night, so the Final Four is set. I'd have thought the Celtics could have, would have finished it in six games. That they'd realize they need all the rest they can get to have a chance against the Heat, even without Chris Bosh. The last thing they should want is for Miami to have more time off than they do. But that's how it happened. I don't know if it was a lack of urgency, bad luck, or they were just too gassed.

I know that's giving short shrift to the Sixers, but I feel that what we saw in that series was that when Boston was fully engaged, playing their style of ball smartly and with energy, the Sixers couldn't compete. There's a reason why Boston was the division winner and 4 seed, while Philly was third place and #8. The Sixers did give it a good run though, so credit to them. Made my prediction miss by a game.

I did get all the series winner right, even got the number of games correct for Heat/Pacers. I think I underestimated the Spurs again, since I thought the Clippers could at least get on from young legs or Chris Paul having a crazy game. It's kind of strange for me to like the Spurs now, but their more offensively oriented than they were in the past, so it isn't surprising. I like times that score and play well as a team on offense. The Mavericks were like that last year, the Spurs are like that this year.

I definitely overestimated the Lakers. I thought the close call with Denver might wake them up, and that they were good enough they could challenge the Thunder for a full series, if not beat them. Nope, if not for that referee aided Game 3, they'd have been swept. Oh well, no skin off my nose. On to the new series.

Miami vs. Boston: I suppose Miami would rather have played Philly, since the Sixers are something like 1-11 in their last 12 games against the Heat, but I don't think it'll make much difference. If Paul Pierce and Ray Allen were close to 100%, and the Heat were missing Bosh, I'd think the Celtics had a real chance to win. At the least, it would take the Heat six tough games. But with Pierce's MCL, Allen's bone spurs, and no Avery Bradley, I don't think the Celtics have enough.

I suppose Rondo could be an issue, but I imagine if he starts lighting Chalmers up too badly, LeBron will switch on to him. We saw last year against the Bulls that LeBron is more than capable of making even highly gifted point guards' lives miserable. Pierce is dinged up badly enough that Battier could probably keep him in check for a while. Garnett could have a big series, since the Heat don't have anyone in the post that should command his full attention (I think Brandon Bass should be able to neutralize Haslem), so even if his jumper isn't falling, Garnett has a chance to really gum up the passing lanes.

But that's the problem. The Celtics are a better defensive team than the Heat. In theory, anyway (without Bradley and a hobbled Allen/Pierce, maybe not), but the Heat are still a top 10 defense. Meanwhile the Heat are a much better offensive team than Boston. Like Top 5 versus Bottom 5. So the Celtics defense may be better, but it also faces a much greater challenge, and given Boston's own offensive limitations, I'm not sure they can lock down the Heat enough to win. The Celtics need to keep the score in the 80s or lower. If the Heat get to 90, I think Boston is probably sunk. Heat in 5.

San Antonio vs. Oklahoma City: The Spurs have faced two young teams, one relying on interior muscle, the other on their point guard and leaping ability. The Spurs swept them both. The Thunder have played two old teams, one reliant on a tall, rangy shooter, the other that probably should have relied on interior muscle, but leaned on Kobe instead. The Thunder have only lost once. So now the Spurs face another young team, and the Thunder face another older team.

The Thunder have 3 top-notch scorers, and not a lot else offensively. I'm not sure who the Spurs have to limit Durant, but I think they can find ways to limit Harden and Westbrook to varying degrees. Which will put pressure on somebody else to pick up the scoring slack. Ibaka, probably. The Spurs have three top-notch players of their own, though Ginobli hasn't had a great postseason so far. Kendrick Perkins will make Duncan work for anything he gets, but the advantage the Spurs seem to have is a wealth of guys who can step up and carry the load for a game or two. So I don't think Duncan will have to force it, he can pass to the open man if it's the smart play, and trust them to get things done. I'm not certain how much experience counts for, but the Spurs have that. They have the depth across the board, and they seem to be really good at seeing what the other team wants to do on offense, and not letting them do it. I'm not sure they can manage that against the raw athleticism the Thunder have, but they managed all right against the Clippers. Maybe I'm underestimating the Spurs again, but San Antonio in 6.