Sunday, March 11, 2012

The Cards Over The Last 32 Seasons - Shortstop

Shortstop is one of the two most stable positions for the Cardinals over the last 3 decades. In that time, only 9 different players have played the plurality of innings at the position for even one season. In the case of SS, much of that is owed to one guy being the starter for 13 consecutive years. We'll look at the key for the other position when we get to it.

Herzog Era: 2

Best: In any of the other eras, Garry Templeton would probably win. Between 1980 and 1981, his WAR/162 was 4.9, which is what you get with a shortstop who plays above average defense (8 runs above average both years) while posting a .728 OPS (OPS+ of 108 and 98 for the 2 years). His base-stealing wasn't the best (39 successes to 29 failures), and he didn't walk (average of 27/162 games, which is how a guy with a .300 average only has a .324 OBP), but he did hit for average, had good power for a SS (ISO of 124), and like I said, above average defense at a premium position.

Unfortunately, he shares this era with Peak Ozzie Smith. During this time, Ozzie was worth 5.5 WAR/162. Much of that is defense. In his worst season during this time, he was 10 runs above average, usually between 13 and 19, and in 1989, he was 31 runs better than an average SS. So anywhere from 1 win to 3 per season right there. he was a solid base runner, always worth at least 3 runs there, sometimes as much as 11 runs, and a successful base stealer (317 steals to 65 times caught). But he was also worth more as a hitter than people think. No, he didn't have a high average (.269), or much power (ISO of 74), but he drew 74 walks/162 games, which is how he has a .346 OBP, so the gap between his and Templeton's OPS is only 39 points, and Ozzie's in OBP-heavy (which is generally considered more valuable). Throw in that Ozzie has a big longevity edge, and that Herzog traded Templeton for Ozzie specifically, and it's clear cut.

Worst: That said, I'm not listing Templeton here, because it doesn't seem fair to list a guy who produced that well under this heading.

Torre Era: 2

Best: Ozzie Smith. He wasn't nearly as good as he had been, but he was also in his mid to late 30s throughout the Torre Era. And he was still a 4.1 WAR/162 player. His average climbed (.282), but his walk rate fell (69/162, which is why his OBP only rose to .348), and his power declined (ISO of 67). His baserunning and defense weren't what they used to be, but he's still better than anyone we'll see on this post besides Templeton and his younger self.

Worst: Tripp Cromer. He's the only other option, and unlike Templeton, his performance merits the "worst" tag. It's still not really his fault. It wasn't planned for him to start in '95, but Ozzie got hurt, and Cromer was what they had. I'm sure they hoped for better than a .595 OPS and -0.9 WAR/162, though.

LaRussa Era: 6

Best: Outside of one player, TLR generally had solid shortstops. Rarely great, but the worst WAR/162 of the other five was 1.8, which is basically average. That said, there are two in the running here. Eckstein has the performance edge at 3.3 WAR/162, and an OBP (.357) heavy .732 OPS. But it's only a narrow edge over Edgar Renteria, who posted a 3.2 WAR/162, with a pretty solid .347 OBP of his own, and considerably more power (ISO of 130 to Eckstein's 78). Renteria's numbers suffer because his years came during a more offense heavy time. By the time Eckstein got here, baseball was starting to PED test, and numbers were slipping a little, which makes him look better by comparison. Renteria was more of a stolen base threat (27/162 vs. 11). Eckstein was probably the more sure-handed defender, but Edgar has the greater range. Renteria was the starter for twice as many years, and Eckstein was the fallback option after Renteria took the bigger contract from Boston. Wonder if he regrets that, considering how his one season there went? I'm giving the nod to Edgar Renteria, because Eckstein's performance advantage is just too slim to compensate for the rest.

Worst: Ryan Theriot. He was worth exactly 0.0 WAR/162 last year. That's with his time at second base, where he was average defensively, rather than a fucking disaster like he was at SS, factored in. As a SS, he'd beat out Cromer for the worst SS of the last 3 decades. He still might when you consider that unlike Cromer, Theriot was supposed to be the starter, and the team had to trade for a replacement because of his performance. Also, the team didn't pay Cromer over $3 million for the job he did (Baseball-Reference says $112,000). Anyway, we're not doing best and worst ever, today, so that's irrelevant. For LaRussa, though, Theriot's clearly the worst. For the record, Brendan Ryan's WAR/162 for his two years as starter? 2.7, which is basically what he was worth for Seattle this year in less than 162 games.

Next time, left field. There are a couple of cases where I don't think longevity will be enough.

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