Saturday, April 28, 2012

Let The NBA Playoffs Begin!

Because it gives people like myself a chance to do prediction posts. Easy content.

I should be more excited, and I am actually, it's just I'm not going to get to see any of the games. So, much like the regular season, I'm stuck following the scores online. Which puts me at a certain distance from the proceedings.

Bulls vs. Sixers: The 76ers apparently preferred this matchup to playing Miami. I guess they figure they have a better chance against a team built around working really hard on defense than on a team reliant on two extraordinarily good players (and one other good player). I don't think it'll make much difference in the long-run. The Bulls are similar to the Sixers, only better. Bulls in 5.

Heat vs. Knicks: It's hard for me to know what to make of this one, since the Knicks' roster has been through so much upheaval with injuries, player movement and whatnot. I'm sure Carmelo will be looking to have a big series, though I question whether that'll be good for the Knicks. As long as he doesn't start forcing things in an attempt to outdo LeBron, it should be OK. If Amar'e is close to healthy he could have a big series, but I still feel the Knicks are a little too shaky defensively to win the series. Heat in 6.

Pacers vs. Magic: No Dwight Howard doesn't seem like a good thing for Orlando. Then again, they're contending with Roy Hibbert in the middle, not David Robinson. I imagine Hibbert will do some damage, but I wouldn't expect him to go off for for 40 points and 20 boards or anything like that. I figure there'll be at least one game where Orlando's 3-point shooters can't miss, and perhaps a second one (or just a game where Indiana comes out flat) as well. Pacers in 6.

Celtics vs. Hawks: Boston is the 4 seed, but Atlanta has the better record and home court. This being Atlanta, I'm not sure home court will count for anything with them. There might easily be more Celtic fans at Games 1 and 2. That being said, I don't expect this to be a cakewalk for Boston. Atlanta's a big younger, probably not as worn down from the compressed schedule, and most of their key players are at least old hands as far as first round playoff series go. I'm curious to see if the Hawks repeat last year's tendency to alternate games where they're really impressive, with ones where they hardly bother to show up. Either way, I think the Celtics can lock down sufficiently on defense to pull this off. Celtics in 7.

Spurs vs. Jazz: The question is whether Utah has the interior size to exploit the Spurs like Memphis did last year. They have Al Jefferson, Millsap, Favors, and Kanter. I don't think any of those guys are on Zach Randolph's level as interior presences, but combined, they might be enough. Problem is, the Spurs love to use the pick and roll, and the Jazz stink at guarding it. I think it's more likely that San Antonio can figure out how to occasionally muffle Utah's post game, than Utah magically figures out how to defend the pick and roll. Spurs in 5.

Thunder vs. Mavericks: My gut instinct is the young Thunder can run the geezer Mavs off the court. The Mavs don't have the interior defense they had last year, nor do they seem to have the complimentary scorers for Dirk this year. Then again, one of the biggest stars for them against the Lakers was Peja, and nobody was expecting anything from him. Plus, we don't know how steady James Harden's going to be feeling, and if he's not his usual self, does OKC have another scoring threat after Durant and Westbrook? Those guys can't play every single minute of every game. Someone else would have to score sometime. Eh, I think the Thunder have enough to get by Dallas, but it's as much because of how poorly the Mavs have done putting together a title defense. Thunder in 6.

Lakers vs. Nuggets: I guess Gallinari's the guy who benefits from the absence of Metta World Peace. I'm not sure he can go off for enough points to offset the Lakers' interior advantage. That's assuming, of course, that Kobe doesn't start demanding the ball so much it marginalizes Bynum and Gasol. If the Lakers have several games where Gasol only shoots 10 times because Kobe's jacking up 30 shots in an effort to prove it's still his team, Denver might have a chance. But I'm not sure their depth is going to win out (though I'd like for it to). Lakers in 5.

Grizzlies vs. Clippers: Memphis has tenacious perimeter defenders, and with Randolph getting stronger, their interior presence is increasing. The Clippers have basically two top-notch players in Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, each with their own caveats. Paul's is that because of his knee he tends to hold back until it's absolutely necessary, which ought to leave him with something in the tank for the postseason, but also raises the possibility of games getting out of hand before he realizes he needs to shift into fifth gear. Griffin's a poor post defender, which is troubling since he'll be stuck guarding either Z-Bo or Marc Gasol if they play together, and he can't shoot free throws, so you can't really give him the ball in the last five minutes of a close game. Especially since you know teams are going to foul him really hard anyway, because they don't like his theatrics and showoff tendencies. Then there's the specter of Vinny del Negro as coach. I think the Clippers are going to get bounced quickly. Grizzlies in 5.

There's probably going to be at least one sweep, if not more in the first round, but I didn't feel right picking one. We'll see how I do.

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