The Conference Semis Started Already?!

That's really unfair, starting the second round while the first is still going. Oh well, the first is over by the time I started typing this.

Boston vs. Philadelphia: This already started last night, with the Celtics narrowly winning, thanks to a triple-double by Rondo, and a 29 point, 11 board night from Garnett. This after KG went 28 and 14 with 5 blocks to close out the Hawks. As a fan of Garnett's going back to his early days teamed up with Marbury and Tom Gugliotta, I'm loving this. I know it's not his inclination to be the big scorer, he likes to save his energy for defense and score as the opportunity presents itself, but he's stepping up when they need him, with pretty much every important wing player besides Rondo at least a little banged up.

Which is what makes me think the Sixers have a chance. They're younger than Boston, healthier, and I feel like they're deeper. Not that Doc Rovers won't necessarily go deep into his bench, just that I'm not sure what he can count on from it. Sooner or later, though, somebody has to step up. Either Pierce or Ray Allen has to get healthy and start lighting it up, or someone off the bench has got to erupt (though with Igoudala guarding him, I expect Pierce will have a tough series, healthy or not). I know Garnett's going to give it all he's got, but I don't know how long he can continue to score at this pace and maintain the level of defense he brings. As for Philly, I don't who their guy is in crunch time. Maybe whoever happens to be hot, which I've read is not a good way to go, that you need that one guy who will be THE GUY in the clutch, but I would think against a really good defensive team like Boston, having multiple options might be appealing. They can't focus on one guy, so they can't play off anyone, either. Limits the help defense potential. All that said, I still think the Celtics have enough to squeak by in 6.

Miami vs. Indiana: This one's going as I type, with Indiana ahead 65-64 at last check. Far as I can tell, the Heat have 3 of the best 4 or 5 players, but the Pacers have probably 9 of the best 12. Which is more valuable? If anyone gets hurt, the Pacers are less likely to be hampered, because it's more likely they have someone they can plug in. Then again, Miami only has a few guys that really matter. The Pacers, like the Sixers are a team where I'm not sure who their go-to guy is. I think it's Danny Granger, but he'll probably be guarded by LeBron who is a heck of a defensive player when he's into it. Which is why it feels to me like Roy Hibbert has to have a big series. He's the big advantage the Pacers have, that Miami has no one who can match up with him in the middle. That won't matter much if LeBron and Wade drive and him and get him in foul trouble. Which means we have to worry about the refs. Will they be giving the big names stars all the calls? If so, Indy is doomed. If they actually call it fair down the middle, Indy has a chance. Unfortunately, there's no chance in hell of that happening for 7 consecutive games. Hope I'm wrong, but Miami in 6.

San Antonio vs. LAC: I can't imagine the Spurs are too sad to be missing Memphis. The Grizzlies didn't seem quite as dangerous down low as they were last year when they ousted the Spurs, but why take chances? I really don't see the Clippers posing a challenge. The Spurs are a clever team, that utilizes its strengths and covers its weaknesses. They move the ball around a lot on offense, and the Clippers are not that good a defensive team. I think their big men especially are going to get caught watching the ball a lot, only to find their man has slipped away and is wide open for an easy basket. And seriously, it's a coaching match-up between Vinny del Negro and Gregg Popovich. Maybe Pop should coach drunk to make the playing field level. Spurs in 5.

Oklahoma City vs. LAL: So the Lakers ended up getting interested long enough to hold off the Nuggets, huh? I'm not surprised - the cynical part of me figured there was no way the Nuggets could win a Game 7 against the Lakers in L.A., not with NBA refs - but it bugs me the Lakers can get away with this half-assed effort they bring. "We lost? We'll remember to try next time. Maybe. If we feel like it."

Anyway, they made it to the second, so know we must all root for the Thunder to beat their asses and send them home. I have my concerns. Bynum and Gasol are a handful if they're actually involved (and Bynum isn't behaving petulantly). I'm unconvinced Kendrick Perkins can contain Bynum alone. I'm sure he'll try, and maybe he can piss Bynum off and get him to do something stupid, but I'll have to see it. The interesting thing is both teams are pretty reliant on three players to get their scoring. Durant, Westbrook, Harden versus Kobe, Bynum, Gasol. And neither teams' scorers seem like they'll have to work too hard on defense. Kobe will probably guard Sefalosha, Bynum's on Perkins, and Gasol gets Serge Ibaka. Maybe Kobe could get James Harden if he's on the court with Durant and Westbrook. Meanwhile, Bynum is Perkins' responsibility, Ibaka will deal with Gasol, and Thabo is probably the one guarding Kobe. Durant probably gets Artest, and Westbrook gets the Sessions/Steve Blake disaster platter.

I wanna think the Thunder can win, that they can run enough to wear the Lakers down, and stifle their big men. Or else trick Kobe into shooting too much and taking Bynum and Pau out of the offense himself. Not sure that'll happen if they're engaged in the series, though. After Kobe scored 43 that one loss to Denver, he admitted the Lakers couldn't win the championship with it all being reliant on him hitting tough shots, which was a confession that stunned me. I never expected Kobe to say his shooting and scoring a ton wasn't the answer. Terrifying. Anyway, let's OKC can get it done, and call it Thunder in 7.