Friday, November 11, 2011

Season In Review - Relief Pitchers

Credit to the bullpen. If they hadn't stopped blowing ass, the Cardinals wouldn't have made the playoffs. And if they hadn't largely maintained that level of non-ass blowing, the Cardinals wouldn't have won the World Series. Because Carpenter sure as hell couldn't win four games out of seven on his own.

Fernando Salas - I said at the halfway point that Salas might not be the closer of the future, and that appears to be the case. LaRussa turned to Motte as his closer starting around September, and Salas' role shifted. Initially he seemed to be more of a set-up guy, but in the postseason, he became the guy LaRussa went to first. Salas would typically try to get through 2 innings, usually after the starter had failed to pitch more than 4. Up until the World Series that was working pretty well. In the first 2 rounds, he threw 9.7 innings, and surrendered 2 runs. In the Series, it was 5 runs (3 earned) in 3.7 innings. Maybe he was getting tired. He was approaching 90 innings by the end.

Salas maintained a WHIP below 1 for the season, 2nd best amongst Cards' relievers (and the best mark is Dotel's, who threw less than a third the innings Salas did). His HR rate's a little higher than some of the others, but he averaged a K per inning, and a 3.57/1 K/BB ratio. I imagine he can close if needed, but I'd like to see him used in whatever role is most useful on a given day next year, though I doubt the new manager will be that flexible.

Jason Motte - Motte took over the closer role from Salas late in the year. Prior to that, his role had shifted over the season, but just before he'd become more of a traditional "fireman", brought in whenever LaRussa absolutely needed a rally squashed, regardless of inning. Guess being able to throw in the high-90s has its advantages. It's interesting that his K rate is lower than Salas' (8.3 vs. 9.0), though K/BB ratio is better (3.94 vs. 3.57). Going by B-R's WAR, Salas was the 3rd most valuable pitcher (after Carp and Lohse), and Motte the 4th. I believe Fangraphs has it differently, in part because they like Garcia a lot more (I believe they have him as a 3 win pitcher, and Carp at 5 WAR). At any rate, Motte and Salas were the two key performers in the 'pen this season, as they were pretty much the only relievers on the major league roster all season (though Salas didn't arrive until mid-April).

I do wonder if Motte's 0.3/9 IP HR rate is sustainable, and if not, how much that will affect his value next season.

Mitch Boggs - Boggs never did seem to regain TLR's trust. Then again, his performance didn't really merit it. In the first three months, his K/BB ratio was 3.3. In the last three months, 1.36. That's Westbrookian. It seemed as though he was struggling with some injuries during the season, and I don't know if that robbed him of velocity, control, both, or neither. He's always had some control problems, at least as a starter, so it isn't entirely surprising that would persist into his career as a closer, but I'm not sure why it seems to have flared up so severely in the latter half of the season. Though we are dealing with small sample sizes, and some of his misfortune may have been bad luck. His babip for July was .343, and it was .354 in August, though without looking at how many line drives he was surrendering, I can't say if that's a fluke or not. I'd still like to have him around next season, as a cheap mop-up guy with the stuff to be more useful if he can harness it.

Trever Miller - Miller went to Toronto in the Rasmus trade, then wound up in Boston at some point, though eh threw less than 10 innings overall in the AL. In those last weeks before his trade, he continued to be generally ineffective. 6 appearances, 1.3 innings, 6 hits, 1 walk, 2 Ks, 1 run allowed. Or he was charged with one run anyway. In three of the appearances, he retired no batters, which suggests he was brought in to get out a lefty, and failed. A 50% failure rate is no good for a LOOGY. I'm not sure why he went downhill so abruptly, but he was addition by subtraction.

Lance Lynn - Lynn was in the bullpen from late June to early August. Then he hurt an oblique and missed the remainder of the regular season. Fortunately, he was ready in time for the playoffs. He pitched well (or had some good fortune) in the NLCS, but was smacked around a little by the Rangers. Which is nothing to be ashamed of, so were most of the pitchers on the staff.

As a reliever, he threw 24.3 innings, posted a WHIP below 1, with almost 12 Ks per 9 IP, and K/BB ratio of 4 to 1. Even so, I still wouldn't mind seeing him in the AAA rotation next year. He may be more likely to have value as a reliever, but he has greater potential value as a starter. Plus, I figure someone in that rotation is going to get hurt at some point, with Wainwright returning from Tommy John, and Carpenter and Garcia having both just set career highs in innings.

Eduardo Sanchez - Sanchez was on the DL at the halfway point, and came back in September. he pitched in one game, the second to last game of the year, when Westbrook crapped his pants, and LaRussa had to haul out anyone he could to get through the game. Which included Edwin Jackson, and also Sanchez, who threw 1.3 innings, struck out 2, and allowed no baserunners.

Sanchez is really exciting. He still has control issues (4.8 BB/9 IP), but he allowed fewer hits than walks, and K'd 10.5 batters per 9 innings pitched. He might have the best raw stuff of any of the young righties, if, like Boggs, he can just control it more effectively. I'm looking forward to his presence in the bullpen next season.

Octavio Dotel - Like I mentioned above, Dotel lead the relievers in WHIP, with a 0.851 in the 24.7 innings he threw for St. Louis, after being acquired in the Rasmus trade. he did continue to demonstrate that he should not face left-handed batters. Against righties, he allowed an OPS of .410, but lefties racked up an .845. Those numbers are for the entire season, not just his StL stint, but TLR seemed to get smarter about not using him against lefties as time went on. In the postseason, he pitched fairly well, allowing 4 runs in 10.3 innings, but with a 7 to 1 K/BB ratio, even better than his regular season 6.4/1 mark.

All that being said, I'd prefer the team not offer him arbitration (they already declined his option). He's Type A, so any team that signs him surrenders 2 draft picks. I can't see any team (maybe Houston, Ed Wade seems pretty stupid), doing that, so I imagine Dotel would accept arbitration. He can't make less than 80% of what he made this year, so it'd be at least 2, 2.25 million for essentially a ROOGY. And one thing the Cards don't lack is power righthanded relief arms.

Marc Rzepczynski - Also acquired in the Rasmus trade. Scrabble didn't pitch as well as Dotel, with a WHIP over 1.45 in his 22 innings. His K rate was close to Dotel's (11.1/9), but he walked almost a batter every other inning, so his K/BB ratio is only 2.55. There are rumors he was getting to wound up, to the point team officials were starting to worry about him, and maybe that was a problem. I suppose he'd never been in a playoff hunt in Toronto, or maybe it's hard going from the Blue Jays' clubhouse to the Cardinals (Note: I have no idea what Toronto's clubhouse is like, or the Cardinals' for that matter). He did alright in the postseason; nothing great, but he recorded some key outs. I'm fine with him being in the 'pen next year, though it looks like he's the only long-term return the team will get for Rasmus, at least until the arbitration thing plays out, and we see if they get some picks. Well, it was a shirt-term deal, anyway.

Brian Tallet - Also traded to Toronto, pitched once there, with poor results. The Cards used him just once in July. He recorded two outs, but allowed two hits and a walk, and two runs were charged to him. Not sorry to see him go.

Arthur Rhodes - Rhodes was claimed off waivers in August, after the Rangers dumped him, for generally being terrible. He was a mixed bag for the Cardinals. In 19 appearances, he threw less than 9 innings, which isn't surprising, since he's a LOOGY. But like Miller, he occasionally failed to get that one guy out. 4 times in 19 appearances to be exact. Which is better than Miller's July ratio, to be sure, but still a little irritating.

True to regular season form, he threw 2.7 postseason innings, but spread it out across 8 games. He didn't allow any runs, though, and only one baserunner total, so I can't complain about the results.

Brandon Dickson - Dickson made two relief appearances in July, and another in September. All told, they encompassed 5 innings, and he allowed 3 hits, 2 walks, and K'd 3. He also made 1 start, against Milwaukee, on short rest (?!), and didn't make it out of the 4th. So perhaps it was a glorified bullpen start. Dickson spent most of the year in the AAA rotation, and as he didn't particularly distinguish himself, I figure that's where he should start next year as well. Maybe he can be the first option if Lynn is a reliever next year.

Raul Valdes - Valdes pitched once for StL just before the halfway mark, then 6 more times in July. In September, he was a Yankee, so who knows. In his 6 July appearances, he threw 4.3 innings, allowed 5 hits, 4 walks, 4 Ks, and 2 runs. So nothing special. He got in trouble, but either worked through it, or was bailed out by subsequent relievers.

Maikel Cleto - Cleto pitched once in the second half of the season, throwing a scoreless inning. Other than that, he spent most of the second half at AAA, as a starter. Mixed results, with his 4.29 ERA, and 5.4 BB/9, but before this year he'd never pitched above high A. This season he pitched there, at AA, AAA, and in the majors. I guess we'll see if it's something he can build on.

P.J. Walters - Walters pitched 4 times for StL in July, before heading to Toronto. He had one bad appearance, but it was pretty bad. 3 hits, 1 walk, 4 runs (on a grand slam, I believe), while recording only one out. Too bad. Before that he'd thrown 3 innings, and allowed only 1 walk, while striking out 3. Toronto used him once, to throw a scoreless inning against Baltimore. Other than that, he spent the season in both teams' AAA affiliates as a starter. It didn't go all that well in Memphis, it went horribly in Vegas.

Pitchers, complete! Sometime soon, position players! Maybe just starters, then bench guys. I don't know.

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