On To The NLCS

I held off until the NLDS wrapped up because I wanted to see whether I should start my regular season wrap-up posts. The Cardinals triumphed over the Phillies, so I get to wait at least another week.

I don't know whether to credit the Phillies' poor offensive showing (outside of Game 1) to the Cards' pitchers, or as a minus againt Philly's hitters. Little of both I imagine, but it was one of those things I mentioned, that the Phillies were middle of the pack offensively, while the Cards were best in the National League*. The Phillies pitchers were undeniably better, but they were also facing an undeniably better lineup than the Cardinals were.

At any rate, now the Cardinals have to face the Brewers, who beat the Cardinals by six games for the NL Central crown. The season series is an even 9-9, though, for what that's worth. The Brewers have home field, which is exactly what they wanted, as they were 57-24 there in the regular season, and 3-0 so far in the postseason. Contrast that to their 0-2 road record in the playoffs thus far, and their 39-42 road record during the regular season. I have no idea what makes them so good at Miller Park, but it's certainly bad news for the Cardinals that 4 of these games will be in Milwaukee. Assuming the series lasts long enough.

Once again, the Cardinals have the offensive advantage, though not by quite as much as they had over Philadelphia. The Cardinals had scored 49 more runs than the Phillies, but only 41 more than Milwaukee. Either way, it isn't a particularly large advantage. And once again the Cardinals appear to be operating at a disadvantage in run prevention, though also not as severe. The Phillies had allowed 163 fewer runs than St. Louis in the regular season. The Brewers have allowed 54 fewer runs than the Redbirds.

Of course, the Cardinals aren't the same team as they were at the beginning of the season. As I mentioned last time, the bullpen is very different from the Opening Day configuration, and they shouldn't find themselves relying on Jake Westbrook to win any games for them in the playoffs. If they have, things have gone very badly awry. I'm sure the Brewers gain some similar benefits, but I would imagine they have fewer of those sorts of holes to begin with, and so don't derive as much advantage from it.

Whether that's enough to balance things out, or tip them in the Cardinals favor, I don't know. Assuming LaRussa has finally learned his lesson about starting pitchers on short rest, the Cardinals can't use Carpenter until Game 3. Which means Lohse and most likely Garcia for the first two. Lohse of course is always a few bad bounces from trouble, and Garcia hasn't had particularly good success on the road this year. Some of that seems to be poor luck on batted balls, as his K/BB ratio is actually better on the road than at home, but I can't say it isn't concerning, especially against the Brewers, who have some pretty thunderous bats.

There's some discussion the Cardinals may be without Skip Schumaker for this series, as he left Game 5 with an oblique injury. If he's out, would LaRussa use Tyler Greene? Or would he decide to add another pitcher? Or would he keep Skip on the roster in the hopes his condition improved to where he could be used before it ended?

Oh, and in football news, the Arizona Cardinals fell to 1-3 after blowing a 4th quarter lead at home against the Giants. Color me unsurprised by the Arizona's incompetence.

* Which is kind of surprising considering the following: Pujols had the worst 2-month stretch of his career, then missed 14 games with a wrist injury. Schumaker missed time, Punto missed about 60% of the year, Freese missed two months, as did Craig, and Holliday missed over 30 games with various ailments.