Thursday, July 28, 2011

Cardinals Trade Colby Rasmus

Because hell, it's been 8 months since the last time the Cards traded a relatively young player because he didn't fit into their clubhouse. How's that swap of Brendan Ryan for Theriot working out? I'll answer for you, it's sucked.

Anyway, Rasmus is a Blue Jay now. The Blue Jays had acquired Edwin Jackson from the ChiSox, then flipped him to StL along with Marc Rzepczynski, Octavio Dotel, and Corey Patterson from Toronto. Corey Patterson? Don't they have enough terrible ex-Cubs on this fucking roster already? One is bad enough. The Cardinals also sent along Trver Miller, Brian Tallet, and P.J. Walters. Depending on how some of the players acquired perform, the Cards may receive up to 3 minor leaguers from the Jays.

So overall, how did St. Louis do?

They upgraded their rotation for the remainder of the season, but not dramatically so. Jackson won't be more than the #3 starter behind Carpenter and Garcia. In other words, Jackson will be what Jake Westbrook was supposed to have been, if he hadn't been terrible this year. Jackson's been alright for Chicago. Has an ERA+ of 104, but his WHIP is over 1.4. He does have a solid K/BB ratio of 2.49, and K's over 7/9. In theory, all those numbers should improve with the move to the NL and its easier lineups. Potential downside: Jackson's a free agent, so either they'll give him a big, potentially disastrous contract next year, or the Cardinals gave up Rasmus for a 2-month rental and the draft pick they'll get when Jackson leaves in the offseason. Still, it is an undeniable upgrade for the rotation.

With the addition of Dotel, Scrabble, and McClellan moving back to the 'pen now that Jackson's here the relief corps should be improved. Dotel's been pretty solid in about 29 innings. He's surrendering about 2 hits every 3 innings, 1.5 HRs/9, and striking out a batter an inning. And he's not walking too many guys. Rzep's apparently the only trusted lefty in the Jays' pen, as he's logged almost 40 innings this year, albeit in 43 appearances. He'll fit right in with LaRussa's bullpen methods. He allows one HR every 18 innings, has a K/BB ratio of 2.2, and like Dotel, his WHIP is just under 1.1. Not too shabby. Plus, the trade got rid of Miller and Tallet, so addition by addition and addition by subtraction. Dotel's a free agent at the end of the year as well, but he's pitched well enough the Cards could get a draft pick if he goes elsewhere. Then again, they might not want him to go. With Batista and Franklin gone, TLR might feel the 'pen is dangerously low on veteranosity. Or Dotel might retire. Who knows? Scrabble's under team control for another 3 or 4 years, though, so that's good.

Interestingly, Rzep was a starter the previous two seasons, with mixed results. He was OK in 11 '09 starts, but struggled in 12 starts last year, as his WHIP jumped from 1.3 to 1.6, and his hit rate with from 7.5/9 to 10.2/9. It's odd, his K rate is actually lower in the bullpen than it was as a starter, when he was over 8 K/9 both years. Most pitchers K more guys as relievers, since they'll throw fewer pitches and can throw harder. Anyway, I wonder if the Cards will continue shifting him back to starting next year. If he can be even average, he'll be a lot more valuable than as a LOOGY. And other than Garcia, the Cards don't have a lot of LH starting pitching. Haven't really had a lot of it since the early '90s, actually, and most of those guys didn't pan out (Allen Watson and Tom Urbani especially, Rheal Cormier and Donovan Osborne to lesser extents), so more is better.

So the pitching staff should be stronger. Great, because they didn't help the outfield any. Before they could trot out Holliday/Rasmus/Berkman, and Jay could sub anywhere. Now Jay has to start in center, unless LaRussa thinks Patterson can do that. Patterson's been the Jay's starting LF this year, but he was the Cubs starting CF for about 4 years, then two with Baltimore and 1 in Cincy. The numbers vary. Sometimes he's good (he was worth 1.1 wins defensively alone in '06), and sometimes bad (and worth -0.5 the next year). All his value this year is with the glove, but again, that's in LF. Considering TLR was willing to bench Rasmus in favor of Jay, I don't see Jay losing the starting job to Patterson. After all, the Cardinals ought to have seen enough of him to know his limitations (poor plate discipline chief among them).

Then again, they had years to watch Theriot play SS, and still thought he could handle it, so maybe they're blind. Or idiots. I'll have to hope Craig hurries and finishes his rehab stint, then picks up where he left off. At least then they'll have an offensively comptent backup to compliment their apparently defensively comptent new arrival. What it boils down to is, Rasmus being swapped out for Patterson is not an improvment. So that's a minus.

The big issue for me is this does nothing to address the Cards' most glaring hole, the middle infield. Descalso's getting some opportunities at SS, with Greene still in AAA and Punto apparently unable to hold up if he plays short. Descalso's an improvement over Theriot (though I think my dead grandmother would be an upgrade over Tally Ho), but combined with Skip, it still isn't an ideal situation for a pitching staff that relies heavily on groundballs. I don't know whether the team doesn't consider it an issue, or if there's simply nothing out there worth getting, without selling the farm. Then again, the team seems committed to win now, so what do they care about selling the farm?

Short-term, I think this trade improves the team, though not as much as they need. Long-term, I think it's a crap move. The potential draft picks and players to be named later don't impress me because wht are the odds any of them will be the player Rasmus is? Pretty small, I'd bet.

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