Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Cardinals Sign Nick Punto

My hope when I heard this was that it means they won't bother with Aaron Miles because Punto could do everything Miles could, only better. Having since actually looked at their stats, I guess I'm getting my wish, though Punto hasn't been as good as I'd imagined.

Over the last 3 years (per Baseball-Reference), Punto's been worth 3.4 wins above replacement, but only 1.3 the last 2 years. Aaron Miles has been worth 0.3 WAR the last 3 seasons, and -1.5 the last 2 (most of the negative value was his disastrous 2009). Punto has higher value both defensively and offensively, though again, not by the margin I'd hoped for. Then again, if he was as good as I'd hoped, he probably wouldn't have been available for less than a million dollars.

Miles seems better able to hit for contact, Punto a little better at drawing walks. Neither has much power. They both play multiple positions, but Punto seems more adept. Punto's a year younger, but also seems more injury-prone (or unlucky). It's doubtful he'll be starting, so maybe that isn't a concern. What does concern me is the idea I've seen bandied about online that if David Freese isn't ready to go at the start of the season, Punto could be the starting 3rd basemen until Freese is ready.

Please no. Punto as an occasional sub for Theriot, or a defensive replacement (or platoon partner) for Schumaker, sure. The offensive drop won't be horribly severe, and might even be made up for by the defensive upgrade. But assuming Freese's early 2010 results weren't a complete mirage, the drop from him to Punto at the plate is concerning. I'd much rather they take their chances with Allen Craig at 3rd, and perhaps let Punto sub for him late, rather than make Punto the starter.

Hopefully, that's a non-issue, either because Freese will be ready to go when the season starts, or because LaRussa doesn't see Punto as anything more than a super utility, occasional starter at 3rd base.

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