Thursday, January 14, 2010

Looking Ahead To This Weekend's Playoff Games

We can only hope they're more competitive than last week's selection. Well, I'd prefer Arizona win in a blowout, but I'm willing to accept any victory, no matter how narrow. Now, for your amusement, my predictions for the weekend.

I know the Jets are a good running team, and a very good defensive team, while the Chargers are average on defense (and weaker against the run), and more pass-oriented offensively (they run the ball about as well as last year's Cardinals team). I'm going to take the Chargers. I think they can score a couple times early, and while the Jets running attack will control the clock, it won't net enough points, so they'll have to rely more on Mark Sanchez, and I don't think that's a winning formula. Chargers 27, Jets 13.

So the Colts are dead last in rushing the ball, but first in passing. If last week was any indication, the Ravens are good at pressuring the QB and hitting the receivers hard. I think Peyton has more weapons at his disposal than Brady, though. I wonder if Joe Flacco can do anything useful this week. OK, last week he did complete that one 17-yard pass to make a first down, but can he do that more than once? Upside, the Colts are 24th against the run, but if they can jump out to a big lead that won't matter much. More upside for Baltimore: Manning seemed to have a lot of multiple pick games, especially around and after that New England game. That could be the inexperienced receivers he has this year, but it's something the Ravens ought to be able to exploit. If they can stop the Colts early, they can keep pounding the ball, and so what the heck, Ravens 23, Colts 20.

OK, I'm back. Cowboys and Vikings. The Cowboys have looked good the last three weeks of the regular season, and in last week's beating of Philly. The Vikings struggled for a few weeks, starting with stomping Arizona handed them, but seemed to maybe pull themselves together against the Giants. Assuming the Giants didn't just roll over, that is. The Cowboys defense is playing well, but I'd think the Vikings can challenge them a bit more in the run game than the Eagles did. If they're smart, that's what they'll do. It reduces the pressure on Favre, which seemed to work pretty well for Minnesota the first couple months of the season. Other bit of good news for Minnesota is they ranked second on defense against the run. Seeing as the Cowboys have that three-headed monster of Barber, Jones, and Choice, it'd be helpful if the Vikes' D can play up to that ranking. I don't know who I want to win here. I hate Dallas, but I'm not sure I want the Vikings advancing, since that means more talking about Favre. Of course, if the Vikings lose, the talk will be about whether Favre is finally going to retire for real, so maybe it's better to have it be about his actual play on the field. Vikings 30, Cowboys 17.

I want the Cardinals to beat New Orleans. Nothing against the Saints, but the Cardinals are my team. I always want them to win. And I think they can. Won't be easy, but they can do it. New Orleans' defense actually ranks below Arizona's in both run and pass defense, though they're better at forcing turnovers. The Saints are also 6th in rushing offense, which surprised me. I was under the impression their run game was week. So much for that. The good news is, Arizona does have a running game, if they opt to use it. And while Collinsworth told Jim Rome that Warner loves passing against the blitz, and Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams loves to blitz, I think Arizona ought to consider lots of Beanie Wells. Drew Brees can't score if he can't get on the field. I don't expect this to be as high-scoring as last week's game. I know Arizona's defense can play better than that, and Arizona as a whole seems to play better when they can be the underdog, " we get no respect" team, which I think they can do this week. I'm not saying the Saints are overwhelming favorites, but the general consensus seems to be that if Aaron Rodgers could torch Arizona like that on the road, what will Brees do playing at home? Tha being said, I still expect this to be the highest scoring game of the week, and for both QBs to put up good numbers. Cardinals 34, Saints 30.

Now we sit back and see how badly I whiffed on these.

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