Betting It All On This Season

Remember how yesterday I said I'd take advantage of the trade for Lugo to shift Schumaker back to LF? Well, scratch that I guess, now that the Cardinals have traded three prospects of varying quality for Matt Holliday, plus $1.5 million in cash. I read that Holliday is still owed $6 million for the remainder of the season, so I guess that means the Cardinals will pay him $4.5 mil.

Before we advance, I have to admit a bias. I'm of the opinion that no team should ever trade with Billy Beane. A lot of that is the way the Mulder for Haren/Daric Barton/Kiko Calero trade turned out, what with Haren becoming one of the best pitchers in the league, while Mulder's shoulder was busy disintegrating. Even so, it seemed like for a while there, any team that traded with Beane got the short end of the stick. The player they wanted either broke down or wasn't as good as they appeared, while Beane seemed to always pick players who flourished in Oakland. I'm sure that's a gross oversimplification, but it's how I feel, and so on that basis alone, I wouldn't have made this deal, simply because I wouldn't be able to shake the feeling Billy Beane was pulling the wool over my eyes.

So what to make of the trade? Well, it seems to be a sign of the Cards making a clear declaration that they want to win this year. Between this and the DeRosa and Lugo trades, they Cardinals have surrendered 7 players (two of which are yet to be determined), for three veterans, two of which (DeRosa and Holliday) are free agents after the season. Holliday seems especially unlikely to resign, considering he's a Boras client, who will surely try to start a bidding war for Holliday, and it's unlikely the Cardinals would win that bidding war, and I think he'll either land with a team with a large payroll, or a bad team with a small payroll trying to make that one big signing that shows their fans how hard they're trying. I don't think the Cardinals fit either description, so I think Holliday's stay in St. Louis will be about two months. Three, if they make it to the World Series.

What of Holliday the player? He seems to be strictly a leftfielder, which is fine, that's what the Cardinals need. Even though his numbers this year are down from his production during his Colorado years, they're still easily superior to the Duncan/Ankiel combo the team had been trotting out there. Essentially, the team seems to have have added another Ryan Ludwick to the lineup. Maybe a little better offensively, but with less defensive versatility, though Holliday is apparently quite a good leftfielder, which is nice. While his years in the National league always showed a significant home/road split, with Holliday unsurprisingly hitting better at Coors Field, he did improve his road OPS every year of his stint there, from .654 in 2004, up to .892 in 2008. So he's not wholly a product of the Coors Effect, he really is a good, sometimes very good hitter. The Cardinals' lineup can certainly use more of those.

So figure Holliday in LF, with Ankiel as the 4th outfielder (hopefully LaRussa won't do something stupid like start playing Ankiel ahead of Rasmus), and Lugo as a utility infielder, who maybe starts at SS against LHP, with Ryan playing 2B and Schumaker sitting out. Everyone else remains in the positions I described yesterday.

Of course, we still have to consider what StL gave up. Petersen seemed to be a fringe outfielder, maybe a 4th outfielder, though he was demonstrating some ability to get on-base, but the farm system does not seem to have shortage of backup outfield types (it's finding starters that seems to be the trick). Mortensen projects to a mid-to-back of the rotation guy, at best, the sort of groundball reliant pitcher LaRussa and Duncan are so fond of. Not hugely important, but if he could have reached that potential, a cheap #3 starter is useful, if for no other reason that he frees up money to sign a more expensive front of the rotation guy.

Then there's Brett Wallace. He hasn't exactly lit it up at AAA this year, but he's still only 22 (that's young for a prospective 3rd baseman, right?), and he's shown some power and some ability to draw walks (though it seems to have declined as he's moved up the system, but it's still there a little). The major concern is whether he can actually play third, and the jury is out on that score. There are worries that he's kind of fat, but that may be something more intensive weight training in the off-season could alleviate. If he could man third for years to come, this is probably a very bad trade, since 3rd is going to be a point of concern for the Cards in the future. Glaus is a free agent at the end of the season, and given his injury history I'm not chomping at the bit to bring him back (certainly not for anything near the $12 mil head made this year). I'm not enamored with the idea of DeRosa being resigned as the starting 3B either. Super-utility guy, like an Oquendo with (much) more power? Sure, but not as a starting 3B.

The upside is the Cards have two other potential options in the minors, David Freese and Allan Craig. Freese has been hurt most of the season, so the jury is out on him as well, and Craig, who has hit roughly a little better at AAA than Wallace (though Craig is two years older), has spent more time at 1B and LF than 3B. Whether that was so the organization could see if Wallace could hack it there, or is some indictment of Craig's defense, I don't know.

Ultimately, it's probably not a bad trade for the A's. They can surely get some use out of at least one of the three players they received, and I'd imagine they were less likely to resign Holliday than I imagine the Cardinals to be. As for the Cardinals, this is one of those clasic "mortgaging the future" trades, so the Cardinals better make sure it's worth it. Now for me, I can tolerate watching a losing team for a few years*, but it helps if it's an interesting team, say one with a lot of young guys trying to figure things out, but showing glimpses of the future**. Watching a bunch of old, overpaid guys wither away in front of my eyes, is not nearly as easy to handle***. If I'm going to sit through that, I need something pleasant to hold onto as a reminder it's worth it. With the 2007 Cardinals, there was the memory of the '06 World Series. So basically, what I'm saying is, if the Cardinals don't win the Series this year, I'll consider the trade a failure****.

* Arizona Cardinals fan remember? I've developed a bit of a resistance to endless losing. Not I said only a bit of resistance. It still isn't a pleasant experience.

** Kind of what the early 90s Cardinals were.

*** That's more similar to the 2007 Cardinals, though it was a little better later in the year when guys like Ludwick and Ryan started getting opportunities. They weren't kids, but they were pretty new to the majors, and fighting for jobs, so it helped.

**** Caveat: If they buck my expectations and retain Holliday, then win a World Series in subsequent years, the trade will also be OK.