Addition By Subtraction, I'd Say

The Cardinals make another move, trading Chris Duncan (and a Player To Be Named Later) to Boston for Julio Lugo. Even better, the Red Sox agreed to pay pretty much all of the $13 million Lugo makes this year and the next.

Like the title suggests, I'm inclined to think this improves the Cardinals simply by removing Duncan from the equation. For some reason, LaRussa insisted on playing Duncan nearly every day, even though, at the time of the trade, Chris was in a 1 for 31 slump, with 16 strikeouts over that stretch. Yet, Tony eagerly talks about how it makes him want to vomit how much the fans dump on Duncan. Even better, in that same interview, while explaining why he pinch-hit Duncan for Brendan Ryan, LaRussa turned around and dissed Ryan, describing his at-bats in the game up to then as 'futile'. No Tony, that line I mentioned of Duncan's up above, the 1-for-31, that's futile. Actually, it's beyond futile, it's hopelessly, dumbfoundingly inept.

Here's something else:

Chris Duncan's stat line this season, in 304 PAs: .227/.329/.358 (that's an OPS of .687).
Brendan Ryan's stat line, in 234 PAs: .278/.313/.370 (an OPS of .683). Yep, Duncan was certainly a vast improvement on Ryan in that situation.

And Duncan's stats are inflated by the .934 OPS he had in April, since then, he's been terrible, a worse hitter than Ryan across the board. The one and only thing Duncan still does well is draw walks, which is staggering because I can't figure how pitchers can be afraid of him. He can't make contact, and on the rare occasions he does, he doesn't have any power. He can't hurt you. Furthermore, he's a below-average leftfielder, while Brendan Ryan has been one of the best shortstops in the league this year (defensively). One can make arguments for why Ryan should play, while about the only one you could make for Duncan is there are no better options, and I think the Cardinals could find someone in AAA who can match Duncan's "production".

So, this kind of stuff from LaRussa just lends credence to the people who claim Duncan owes his career to nepotism, namely that LaRussa plays him because his dad is Tony's pitching coach. Certainly, Duncan hasn't done anything the last two years to validate receiving this much playing time. He's never hit lefties worth a damn, and now he can't even hit righties, he's no defensive whiz, so what good is he?

So that's what the Cardinals gave up (ignoring the currently unknown PTBNL). So what did they receive? Well, Lugo's a shortstop, but not a very good one, not defensively anyway. It seems as though, he could be described as marginally below average, at best. However, Lugo does seem to be a better hitter than Ryan. Going back to 2004 his on-base percentages have been .338, .362, .341 (played for both Tampa and L.A. that year), .294 (first year in Boston, not sure what happened there), .355, and .352 this year, albeit in only 123 PAs. His career average is .271 (.268 and .284 the last two seasons), so he shows a greater ability to draw walks than Ryan, which is certainly useful, as the Cardinals have distinct lack of good OBP guys in the lineup. He doesn't seem to hit for much more power than Ryan, but hopefully between Albert, Ludwick, DeRosa, and Rasmus (and maybe Ankiel, or Glaus, fingers crossed) they'd have enough power to score some runs, provided some more people can get on base.

That being said, I'd like Ryan to remain the starting SS. I know LaRussa's said that Lugo will be a utility guy until he gets a feel for him, but Tony's rarely seemed high on Ryan, so I'm worried it won't take much in terms of a slump by Ryan, or a surge by Lugo, to switch those roles. I think given the Cardinals's pitchers tendency towards groundballs, you'd want the best infield defense you could muster. Problem being, I'm not sure how good Lugo would be at 2B, as he hasn't played any significant innings there in years (you have to go back to his Houston days, and the numbers aren't pretty). So maybe the best overall would be Lugo at SS and Ryan at 2B. I would definitely take this opportunity to make Schumaker the everyday LF again, seeing as he'll be an offensive and defensive upgrade over Duncan (and Ankiel, for that matter). Use DeRosa at 3B, Albert at 1B, Yadi a C, Rasmus in CF, and Ludwick in RF, and there you go.

On the whole, I think this trade works for the Cardinals, at least in the short term. They get a fellow with a decent OBP and the ability to play middle infield, and they got rid of a major dead weight in their lineup. The possible downside is if this has soured LaRussa and Dave Duncan on working with the organization, leading to their departure this offseason, and whether that's a downside really depends on a) how high your opinion was of them, and b) who the Cardinals would replace them with, and how those folks fared.