Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Return To The Team-Building Exercise - The Bullpen

And we're back! I just haven't felt terribly motivated the last 3 weeks, but if I don't get another of these done this week, I won't be getting any done until mid-August. So here we are, checking in on the 'pen. I've once again opted to go with a 6-man bullpen, as I did in my revised attempt of my first go around. The way I figure it, with 5 starts each contributing roughly 220 innings (they add up to 1152 innings), it's ridiculous to have 7 relievers. I'm just going to list them chronologically, and also try to describe their role.

1) Mike Perez, 1993 (8th Inning Set-Up Guy) - 65 games, 77.7 IP, 7-2, 7 saves, 58 K, 20 BB, 4 HRs, 2.48 ERA, 159 ERA+, 2.97 FIP, 1.17 WHIP, 1.5 WAR, 0.9 WAA

I also considered taking Paul Kilgus from this season. He had the same WAR, but it was less than 29 innings. That's impressive, but it kind of suggests small sample size fluke, even for a relief pitcher. As for Perez, this is possibly his best year, depending on what you value. He has a lower ERA in '92, but his K rate is much higher in '93, and his BB rate is lower. He goes from a K/BB of 1.44, to 2.90, far and away the best of his career. 1993 marked his lowest walk rate, and 3rd highest K rate. And the two years where he struck out more guys were his last 2 seasons, when he threw a combined 47 innings for the Cubs and Royals. Perez gained the closer's role late in '93, when the Cardinals sent Lee Smith elsewhere, but he couldn't hold it in '94, losing it to Rene Arocha, as Torre continued to shift guys from the rotation to the bullpen, as if the Cardinals had an overabundance of good starting pitchers. Seriously, he did it with Arocha, Rheal Cormier, Omar Olivares, I'm sure he would have done it with Donovan Osborne if Osborne could have stayed healthy.

2) Tom Henke, 1995 (Closer) - 52 games, 54.3 IP, 1-1, 36 SVs, 48 Ks, 18 BBs, 2 HRs, 1.82 ERA, 229 ERA+, 2.81 FIP, 1.104 WHIP, 2.3 WAR, 1.4 WAA

One of the easiest selections. Lee Smith in 1991 was the only other closer I seriously considered, but '91 had other viable options. Unless I wanted to take Tony Fossas, 1995 really didn't. Anybody else that had a good season, there was someone for that same role that had a better season in some other year (some times it was the same guy). Henke and Smith were listed as being equally valuable. This was Henke's only year as a Cardinal, and his last year in the majors. He was a good guy to have around, if a bit useless since the rest of the team was so bad. The Cardinals actually had a good bullpen that year, but their rotation was mediocre (Osborne, Mike Morgan, and Mark Petkovsek had decent years, Ken Hill, Danny Jackson, and Allen Watson had horrible seasons), and the offense was a train wreck. Probably should have tried trading Henke for some good young players, but then who would I select from this season? Fossas, I guess.

3) Rick Honeycutt, 1996 (LOOGY) - 61 games, 47.3 innings, 2-1, 4 SVs, 30 Ks, 7 BBs, 3 HRs, 2.85 ERA, 148 ERA+, 3.17 FIP, 1.035 WHIP, 1.2 WAR, 0.7 WAA

What better way to celebrate the first year of the LaRussa Era than with a situational reliever? Feel the excitement? On the other hand, Honeycutt's wins above average is tied for 3rd highest on the team that year with Andy Benes. Which says more about the general mediocrity of the Cards' pitching staff than anything, but there you go. Honeycutt didn't have a great K rate, only 5.7 batters per 9 innings, though that's quite a bit higher than his career average (4.3). More critically, he walked people at a rate half his career average (1.3 versus 2.7). Which is how he managed the best K/BB ratio of his career (4.29, his next best is a 3.2 in 1992). But that's kind of what he'd have to do. If he's only being brought in to get one, maybe 2 guys at most, he can't very well walk the guy. Actually he averaged a little over 3 batters faced per appearance, but that includes guys he didn't get out. Anyway, Honeycutt's career would end abruptly the next season after just 2 innings, beginning a multi-year stretch where the Cardinals couldn't find a decent lefthanded reliever. It was ended finally in 2001 by Steve Kline, who I seriously considered for the team, but I wanted Darryl Kile, so here we are.

4) Heathcliff Slocumb, 1999 (Last Resort) - 40 games, 53.3 IP, 3-2, 2 SVs, 48 Ks, 30 BB, 3 HRs, 2.36 ERA, 198 ERA+, 3.81 FIP, 1.481 WHIP, 1.7 WAR, 1.2 WAA

The only two pitchers that were more valuable in 1999 were Kent Bottenfield and Darren Oliver, which tells you most everything you need to know about the state of the Cardinals' pitching staff that year. Slocumb was a midseason acquisition, picked up after the Orioles released him. You can tell he was the beneficiary of some good fortune during his stint in St. Louis, based on the gap between his ERA and his FIP. Have to expect that, if you're going to walk over 5 batters per 9 innings. The crazy thing is, that's not even unusual for Slocumb. His career BB rate is 5.1/9, compiled over 631 innings, so this was right in line with his past performance. But he maintained his HR rate (0.5/9), and raised his K rate a little (from 7.3 to 8.1), and had a hit rate almost a full hit less than his career norm (8.3 vs. 9.1). Which is funny, because I don't remember the 1999 team being much for defensive excellence, but I guess things just work out that way. Anyway, judging by all this, Slocumb's gonna be the last guy out of the 'pen, or the guy I use in blowouts, when I can tell him to just throw strikes and not dick around. Maybe that'll get the walk rate down some.

5) Kiko Calero, 2003 (Whatever I Need) - 26 games, 38.3 IP, 1-1, 1 SV, 51 Ks, 20 BB, 5 HRs, 2.82 ERA, 147 ERA+, 3.71 FIP, 1.278 WHIP, 1.0 WAR, 0.7 WAA

The scary thing is Calero's WAR is 4th among Cardinals pitchers that year, behind Woody Williams, Matt Morris, and Garrett Stephenson, all of whom threw at least 4 times as many innings (though Williams and Morris are at least appropriately far ahead). Calero has the best WHIP of any of the relievers other than Isringhausen, which is kind of sad, but there you go. Calero's walking too many guys (4.7/9), and the HR rate's kind of high (1.2/9, though Izzy and Kline are the only 2 relievers with lower HR rates), but he's also striking out 12/9. And Calero wound up being a pretty effective reliever in 2004 (though his WAR and WAA are the same). He still struck out a batter per innings, but he cut the BB rate to about 40% of what it was, and dropped the HR rate a little. Which is why his FIP dropped to 3.14 that year, even if his ERA barely moved. Anyway, even with Slocumb being worse than I initially realized (the dangers of trying to use WAR as a quick and dirty sorting method), there's still enough other guys I don't have to place too much pressure on Calero.

6) Jason Motte, 2011 (Fireman) - 78 games, 68 IP, 5-2, 9 SVs, 63 Ks, 16 BBs, 2 HRs, 2.25 ERA, 166 ERA+, 2.48 FIP, 0.956 WHIP, 1.3 WAR, 0.7 WAA

Look, Fernando Salas led the team in saves that year, so Baseball-Reference lists him as the closer. I was going to take one or the other, and for awhile Tony used Motte pretty much whenever he absolutely needed an out, like the way "closers" were originally used, before it became all about saves and the 9th inning. So that's what Motte's gonna do. His K rate (8.3/9) isn't anywhere near Calero's, granted, but neither is his walk rate (2.1/9), and his HR rate is a quarter of Calero's. If I can't use Henke in a dire situation, then I'll most likely turn to Motte (maybe Honeycutt if it's a lefty, since Motte allowed a .454 OPS to righties that year, but a .738 to lefties). So Motte might end up being the first guy out of the 'pen, depending on how often I'd have to pull my starter because he was struggling and we needed to get out of an inning right now.

As far as other relievers I considered, I already mentioned Salas, Paul Kilgus, Lee Smith, and Tony Fossas. Frank DiPino's 1989 was in the running, but there were two excellent seasons for starting position players ahead of him by considerable margins. I though about John Habyan's 1994, but he's pretty marginal. He would have been a 7th reliever, and I didn't want to do that again. I though about Petkovsek in 1996, but I wanted a lefty, and he and Honeycutt were basically equivalent in value. Juan Acevedo in 1998, but he spent some time in the rotation, as well as the closing, so I wasn't sure how to describe him, also there was another really good position player in front of him. Steve Kline in 2001 and Al Reyes in 2005 lost out to starting pitchers, Russ Springer in 2007 to a bench guy I really wanted. Like I said, relievers are at the bottom rung here.

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