Conference Finals Time

Miami and the Pacers are already playing Game 1, so I guess I better get on with this. My second round predictions mostly went right. I got three of the four series winners, at least. Thanks for nothing, Wizards. The Thunder (and the refs) made sure I even got the number of games in their series right, while the Spurs and Heat took care of business one game faster than I expected.

Miami vs. Indiana: The Pacers look like they're gradually rediscovering their form, but there's a big difference between the Wizards and the Heat. Granted, the Heat are the team Indiana seems constructed to beat, and while they've managed that with some success in the regular season, well this is the playoffs. I mentioned in the last post that the Nets couldn't feel too great about their regular season success against the Heat, because Miami plays at a different level in the post-season. Same thing applies here. The Pacers found that out last year, when they couldn't finish Miami in 6, then got their doors blown off in Game 7.

The issue I have is that, when both teams play their best, Miami is still better. If the Heat don't play at their best and Indiana does, the Pacers can triumph easily, and the Heat have been known to drop some stink bombs in the playoffs before. For the last 2 years though, they've come through when they needed to. Or Lebron has come through, may be more accurate. The Pacers seemed sure all year that if they got homecourt advantage, that'd be the difference against Miami. Time for them to prove. Personally, I'm not convinced. Heat in 6.

San Antonio vs. Oklahoma City: Before last night, I was prepared to hand this one to the Thunder. In the same way Memphis poses matchup problems for OKC, the Thunder seem to pose similar issues for the Spurs. I think it's all the length and athleticism, which seems to neutralize all the Spurs' scheming and ball movement (which they're using at least in part because they don't have as many insanely athletic players as the Thunder).

Now Serge Ibaka is apparently out for the remainder of the playoffs with a calf injury. The Thunder have other big men, but none of them are on Ibaka'a level in all facets of the game. Certainly none are the rim protecting presence he is, and I don't think any of them have his offensive ceiling, either. I'm not sure how much it matters, though. The Thunder still have Durant and Westbrook, which means they have the two best players in the series, and the team already proved it can survive for a while with no Westbrook. But what Ibaka brings to the team is different from Westbrook, and it's mostly things no one else can do. At least some of Westbrook's contributions can be duplicated by Durant, or maybe Reggie Jackson.

I'd like to think the Spurs' superior system and depth will prevail, but I'm not sure they can contain Durant and Westbrook. Kawhi Leonard can only guard one person at a time, you know, and I'm not sure who else they have that can handle it. Thunder in 7.