Thursday, December 20, 2012

Time For An Offseason Look-In

The St. Louis Cardinals have made a few moves at the major league level since the season ended. Let's take a look:

Signed Randy Choate to a 3-year deal - $7.5 million over 3 years seems like an awful lot for a guy who averages 44 innings per 162 games, and threw less than 40 last year. Still, the Cardinals did have a dearth of useful lefthanded relievers last year, and if that's all they let Choate do, he ought to be fine. Lefties have a career .563 OPS against him. Unfortunately, righties have an .806 OPS against Choate, so best to keep him away from those. It was even more pronounced last year, .461 vs. .821, in admittedly small sample size (116 PAs against lefties, 52 against righties).

I do have concerns that he'll abruptly lose his ability to retire lefties, at which point he's useless. He's going to be 37-39 for the duration of this contract, so it could happen. Also, he's likely to throw so few innings, it won't take many bad appearances to torpedo his value. Or at the very least, turn the fans against him. Ray King didn't have a bad 2005, for example, but he did have a bad stretch where he couldn't retire any of the tough lefthanders, and that was all it took for fans to get frustrated. When you only have one duty, you better carry it out well, or everyone is gonna wonder why they keep you around.

Traded Skip Schumaker to the Dodgers - Apparently Skip's people requested the trade. The Cardinals got a minor league shortstop, Jake Lemmerman, I believe. He's supposed to be a slick fielder, but he's been a pretty lousy hitter even in Double A. Which is pretty much the same book as the one on Ryan Jackson, but at least he's made it to AAA, and even the majors. Even if Matheny did refuse to actually use him at SS for some reason.

I'm not going to pretend I'm sorry to see him go. It's not true, and you wouldn't believe it anyway. I've beaten the drum for too many years about how Skip playing second pissed me off. He had his useful moments, and credit to him for being willing to try playing second, but he wasn't good at it. His offensive value is almost entirely dependent on his batting average, because he doesn't have much power, or much ability to draw walks. He's hardly the only guy on the team with that skillset, but most of the others play the same positions as him, and are probably better. You couldn't platoon him at 2nd with Descalso because they were both lefties, and while Skip hit better, Descalso's the better fielder. He can't platoon with Jay in CF, because Jay is also a lefty, a much better hitter (113 OPS+ vs. 94), and for this year at least, a better fielder also. Skip doesn't hit enough to be someone you'd want to use to take playing time away from Holliday or Beltran, so what does that leave him?

The Cardinals need a guy who can play 2nd or SS, who can actually hit a little, preferably righthanded. Skip filled none of those requirements. I'm not sure what the Dodgers will use him for, but good luck to him all the same.

Signed Ty Wigginton to a 2 year contract - Problem is Ty Wigginton doesn't fill any of those requirements either. He doesn't even do the things he does better than people the Cardinals already have. There's no reason to use him as Freese's primary backup ahead of Matt Carpenter. I went back through his entire career, and there wasn't one season where Baseball-Reference has him as even an average 3rd baseman. He can't really play the outfield either, so you're better off continuing to work with MCarp there too. Same at first base, backing up Allen Craig.

The best thing you can say is he's righthanded, and he does do better against lefties, so I guess you could get by using him in place of MCarp against tough lefties, but he's not that great. You're probably better off just sticking with either Craig or Freese, if they're available. And of course, he doesn't do anything for the middle infield. Unless they're planning to use Carpenter as part of a trade package to get a middle infielder, I don't see the point of this move. Wigginton just doesn't seem to have the range of utility that makes him worth a 2 year contract at this stage. It's not a big deal in terms of money - about 5 million total - but it feels like a waste of a roster spot that could go to someone who helps more.

So yeah, not exactly loving the offseason moves so far, but I did figure it was gonna be tricky. The Cardinals seemed like they were just good enough across the field it would be hard to improve anywhere except at the margins. Trying to upgrade from Furcal at SS, Descalso at 2nd, or maybe Jay in center, was going to cost so much it probably wouldn't be worth it. So then you're looking at marginal players, ones willing to be bench guys, and those guys are always going to have holes in their game. Even so, this isn't a promising start.

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