Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Let's Take Advantage Of The Bye Week To Talk Baseball

I haven't talked baseball in quite some time. I meant to do a end of the year post for the Cardinals, but first they got the second wild card, then they beat Atlanta, then they beat the Nationals, so I kept waiting. Then they fell apart against the Giants in the NLCS, and I found myself curiously unmotivated.

I mean the way they lost was a bummer, but it wasn't a complete surprise. They did largely the same thing in an early June series against the Mets (the series where Santana threw his no-hitter, except it wasn't really a no-hitter because that double of Beltran's was a FAIR BALL). They were swept, getting outscored 15-1.

The results against the Giants were worse both in terms of the lopsided nature (it was 20-1), and the stakes (a trip to the World Series), but it was basically the same show. The starting pitching crapped out. The offense went to sleep. It didn't matter what the bullpen did, because by the time they got in the game, the Cardinals were well behind and they were never gonna get close it for it to matter. So having seen this show before, it wasn't quite as crushing as it otherwise might have been.

So now it's the offseason. I don't think the Cardinals will be very big players, because they're set at most positions, and the places they aren't - second base - are ones that aren't likely to be readily fixed by trade or free agency.

The rotation should be a bit of question mark since the first four are Wainwright, Carpenter, Westbrook, and Garcia (assuming he's ready to go). Those guys are all potentially good pitchers, maybe even in great in the case of everyone except Westie, but they also all come with injury concerns. Westbrook missed the last 6 weeks of the regular season and the playoffs. Garcia now has rotator cuff problems to go with his past Tommy John surgery. Wainwright will be 2 seasons removed from his TJ surgery by Spring Training, which qualifies him as the least troubling. Carpenter has had enough procedures to fill a phone book.

The good news is the Cardinals don't lack for potential starting pitching depth. Lance Lynn would be my guess for next year's #5 (assuming Garcia is good to go). Then there's Joe Kelly, Trevor Rosenthal, Shelby Miller, guys like Tyler Lyons, Brandon Dickson, John Gast. Those are just the guys who were in AAA or the bullpen this season. Some of those guys will be bust, but I don't think the team will need all of them at once, so they ought to be able to find a couple who can carry the load in case of trouble.

And if you don't need them in the rotation, they could always go to the 'pen, though the Cards' primary concern there is finding a useful lefthander, assuming Scrabble can't get his act together. That might be something to investigate in free agency, even if I'm leery of making relievers a priority.

In the field, Molina's under contract for 5 more years, Holliday for 4, Beltran and Furcal another year each. They have Craig at first and Freese at third, with Matt Carpenter capable of subbing for either (or Beltran or Holliday, though defensively it might be better to shift Craig to the OF and let Carp play first). Jay's in center. Second base is the weakest spot, with it likely being some combo of Descalso and Schumaker at this point, assuming the Cardinals haven't been sucked in by Kozma's brief MLB stint. I really couldn't understand why they bothered to call up Ryan Jackson, the AAA starting SS, then never used him there, even when Furcal was hurt. They used him at second instead, even though that isn't his position.

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