Conference Finals!

Spurs/Grizzlies Game 1 is set to start in 20 minutes, so I better get on with this.

Miami vs. Indiana: I correctly pegged the Heat as winning in 5 games. On the other side of the coin, I got the number of games right, but backed the wrong team. Is this a lesson to always bet on defense?

I don't think it much matters here. Miami beat Indiana last year, while missing Chris Bosh for a portion of the series. While the Pacers' starting unit was actually able to outscore the Heat, the Pacers were torched any time their bench got involved. Problem is, the Pacers have not significantly improved their bench since last year. Certainly not enough to make up for the fact Miami does have Bosh, and are, on the whole, a better team than last year. I expect that the Hibbert/West frontcourt duo will give Miami some trouble, but those two can't be on the court all the time (especially if the refs are babying the Heat), and when they aren't I expect the Heat will take the pacers apart. Heat in 5.

San Antonio vs. Memphis:  So I was right last round, I wasn't giving Memphis enough credit, they won one game faster than I predicted. On the other side, the Spurs took an extra game to dispatch Golden State. I guess they need more time to figure out the proper counter. Now they have to face an entirely different challenge.

This one's trickier. The Grizz beat the Spurs in the playoffs two years ago. I would Memphis is even more comfortable in their style of play now than they were then. At the same time, this is the Spurs, who seem more adept at shifting styles to meet challenges than practically any other team. What's more, I think Tiago Splitter is considerably improved from where he was two years ago, so the Spurs can actually bring two big men to the party who might be able to play Gasol/Z-Bo to a draw. If the Spurs can manage that, I like their chances.

The thing is, I'm not sure they can do that. Splitter's better, but he's not on Marc Gasol's level, and I'm not sure Duncan, at his age, can match Zach Randolph every game. I don't really think Memphis gains much by slowing things down, since the Spurs have proven quite content to slow it down and grind themselves. However, I think Memphis is just a little better suited for it now than San Antonio.

Look, whichever team I pick, I'm going to end up fearing I'm not giving the other enough credit. Let's call it Memphis in 7.