Back with My Broncos Bandwagon

So it seems as though all the 'experts' are picking Pittsburgh to go into Denver and beat the Broncos. Given they all said New England would do the same thing, I'm pretty amused. The biggest thing I keep hearing is, "Well, look what the Steelers' blitz did to Peyton Manning, imagine what they'll do to Jake Plummer!" And they're right, Peyton had a less than great game; 22/38, 290 yards, 1 TD, no picks (well, there should have been one, but stupid refs, etc.), and most of the good numbers came in the 4th quarter, when the Steelers started playing the prevent defense (ugh) for awhile. Anyway, I have three responses to this:

1. The Broncos offense is different from the Colts. The Colts pass to set up the run. They spread the field with many receivers, and get the defense spread out and stepping back to open holes for James. The Broncos run to set up the pass. The use more two-receiver, max protection sets. They try and get in 3rd and 4 or 5, to improve Plummer's chances. It's an entirely different style.

2. Of course Peyton Manning was pressured by the blitz. He's as mobile as a cement block. Plummer on the other hand, is a good runner, and plays in an offense that tries to take advantage of that, with bootlegs and rollouts. I'm not saying Jake can outrun Polamalu or Porter, but he can make it harder for them than Manning did, plus he's better throwing on the run than Manning.

3. Yeah, Peyton Manning didn't play well in a big game. Are we sure the Steelers can claim credit for that? Peyton always crashes and burns when his team needs him most. If the Steelers try to force Jake to win the game, well Jake's used to it being all on him, that's pretty much how it was his six years in Arizona, playing for godawful teams. He didn't always succeed in carrying his teams, but he won't shirk from the challenge.

And then there's one set of numbers no one has brought up; 20/36, 341 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INTs. Those are Tom Brady's numbers from last week. The Broncos pressured him, and forced two bad passes from a guy who for all the crap I give him, has generally performed very well in the playoffs, and has been a big part of why his team won. Let me ask you what's more impressive to you, beating a QB who was 10-0 in the playoffs, or beating one who was 3-5?

Honestly I think the real question should be "After what the Broncos did to Brady, what will they do to Big Ben?" So I'm picking the Broncos, 20-17, as the Broncos continue to follow the New England style of victory, by winning at the end of regulation on a 36-yard Jason Elam field goal.

Postscript, Sunday, 5:30 p.m. - Well, I was wrong. Steelers 34-17 over Denver. I guess - to steal from Bill Simmons - the moral of the story is, that I'm a dumbass when it comes to predictions.